Tag: NFL

The 300s Podcast: We’ll Do it LIVE

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The 300s will be taking a page out of the SNL playbook and for our first event we’ll be recording a LIVE podcast! So if you’re in the area you’ll have an excuse to grab some beers and see our handsome mugs at the same time. The date and location will be announced in the coming days as I hammer out the details. Now we just have to combine our collective brainpower together to somehow podcast, live stream, host, shoot video content, and drink all at the same time without starting an electrical fire. Stay tuned for more details!

Patriots Chiefs AFC Championship Preview, Odds, and Predictions

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For only just the fourth time this decade, the AFC Championship will not be held at Gillette Stadium. And, for the very first time ever, the game will be held at legendary Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City – long said to be one of the loudest, craziest, and toughest venues to play in throughout the entire NFL.

Some are also saying it could be a symbolic changing of the guard were the Chiefs to win, as 41-year-old Tom Brady – the man, the myth, the legend, the G.O.A.T. – is set to square off against 23-year-old NFL phenom Patrick Mahomes – the young hotshot (and likely MVP) who posted 5,097 passing yards and 50 touchdowns in his first year as a starter. Perhaps not since a young Tom Brady has a signal-caller burst onto the scene so quickly and with such force, and now they’re set to face each other for a chance to win a title. How poetic.

The game will also feature two top-five offenses, which both averaged well over 3.5 touchdowns per game in 2018 and are loaded at pretty much every position on that side of the ball.

On defense, it’s a bit of a different story. Both teams finished in the bottom third of the league in total defense this season, even though the Pats have given up six less points per game. This, coupled with the explosive offenses on both sides, might lead many to believe we’re in for a shootout; however, most reports are predicting single-digit temperatures at kickoff, which is obviously going to affect both teams’ ability to move the ball.

This one is gonna be fun.

Before we get into the preview, here’s a look at when, where, and how to watch the game along with the latest lines:

  • Location: Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, MO)
  • Kickoff: Sunday, Jan. 20, 6:40 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS
  • Odds (via Odds Shark): Patriots: +3 (spread) / Patriots: +145 (moneyline) / 55.5 (total)

For the first time this season, the Patriots actually have a plus sign in front of the spread on their side of the line; that’s because this is the first time, in 17 games this season, that the Pats are the underdog. It is not the first time they’ve ever been a dog in the postseason; in fact, it has happened seven times during the Brady/Belichick era. But most of those games came early on in the run, during TB12’s younger days, as the Pats have been the favorite all but ONCE in their other playoff games since 2006. It’s important to note, though, that the team is 1-4 in their last five road playoff games.

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Things didn’t go so well the last time the Pats played on the road in January.

But rather than continue to get caught up in numbers and past history, let’s instead take a look at who these two teams are this season.

Again, while I did say last week that Los Angeles might have the most talented roster from top to bottom in the AFC, there’s no doubt that Kansas City’s offense is simply unmatched. Anyone who’s paid attention at all to the NFL this year knows just how prolific Mahomes has been, but the Chiefs also feature three other First Team All-Pros on offense (four in total, including Mahomes) and averaged a silly 35.3 points per game in 2018, good for third all-time.

Those other three players are wide receiver Tyreek Hill, tight end Travis Kelce, and offensive tackle Mitchell Schwartz. Hill and Kelce form perhaps the most lethal WR/TE combo in the game right now, as they both combined to total 190 catches, 2,815 yards, and 22 touchdowns on the year. (WHAT???!!!) Those numbers are truly unbelievable, in every sense of the word.

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Seriously, what a freakin’ combo these two are.

Hill also torched the Pats the last time these two teams played, in Week 6, to the tune of 142 yards and three scores. His pure speed is almost superhero-esque, as he has routinely been clocked at speeds of 20-23 miles per hour (as a human being), and no matter whether the Pats choose to bracket him or not, this man can do some damage. No matter what.

Fortunately, the Pats have been great against tight ends this season, finishing eighth in DVOA against the position. They also held Kelce to just five catches and 51 yards back in October. Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, and Duron Harmon will be tasked with keeping him at bay once again, and there’s no reason to believe they won’t with how strong they’ve played all season.

And while many would expect the Chiefs running game to have crumbled after losing Kareem Hunt, they’ve actually been just fine without him. While partly due to injury, which has kept him out the past four games, Spencer Ware has not been as effective as the team hoped in Hunt’s stead. But, Damien Williams – a former Dolphins disappointment – has been reborn in Kansas City; since Week 13, when he was finally given the chance to play meaningful minutes, the 26-year-old has averaged 5.3 yards a carry and four catches per game. He’s also coming off a 154-yard, five-catch, one-score performance against the Colts last week. So, yeah, the Chiefs can still run the ball, too.

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Williams is playing the best football of his life right now.

As pointed out in last night’s podcast, the Pats have actually put up more yards of total offense over the past six games (2,523) than the Chiefs (2,466), so there should be no doubt that they can keep up, especially against Kansas City’s lackluster defense. The only thing that can stop either side is the weather, which I do believe will be a factor.

Now, let’s get into some storylines and matchups to watch out for:

(Neutralize the Pass-Rush): For as much flak as Kansas City’s defense gets, they have a pretty good trio of pass-rushers in Justin Houston, Dee Ford, and Chris Jones. Ford (13 sacks in 2018) and Houston (a former All-Pro with nine sacks in just 12 games this year) are known commodities, but Jones exploded onto the scene this year with 15.5 QB takedowns of his own. We’ve talked at length about how good the Pats O-line has been this year, and they completely shut down Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa last week. They’ll have their hands full again in this one, though.

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Impending free agent, Dee Ford, is going to be playing for his next contract in this one.

(Another Prime Spot for Sony): I said that Sony Michel would need to have a big game last week for the Pats to win, and he did just that with 129 rushing yards and three scores. He’s a big reason why the Pats were able to dominate time of possession, and he’ll need to do that again this week to keep the ball away from Mahomes and the rest of the Chiefs attack. Before last week, the Chiefs were giving up an average of 164.2 yards on the ground to opponents in the five games prior, and the rookie did have 106 yards and two scores against Kansas City in Week 6. Hopefully the kid steps up big once again on Sunday night.

(OH, and The Other Backs, Too): “Big Game James” White came to play when it mattered most once again, with 15 catches last week, tying an NFL postseason record for running backs. He’ll likely be relied upon once again to move the chains on short passes out of the backfield against a team that struggles mightily against the short-to-intermediate passing game. Rex Burkhead could also be called upon to share the load as well to keep the Chiefs guessing. Theoretically, the Patriots offense could actually run entirely through the running back corps on Sunday night, with a heavy dose of Julian Edelman sprinkled in as well – pretty much exactly the offense they ran to beat L.A. last week. (The Chiefs are also terrible against tight ends, so maybe we see good old Gronk helping out a bit as well. This is as good as spot as any for him to do so.)

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Perhaps one of the most underrated players in Patriots history, White will be called upon once again in K.C.

Prediction

It’s going to be cold, it’s going to be a battle, and it’s going to result in the Patriots going to yet another Super Bowl. Maybe it’s recency bias; maybe it’s because we got a guy named Tom Brady; or maybe it’s because I really just want it to happen. Regardless, I say the game remains close until late in the second half, when the Chiefs start to fade and Belichick out-coaches Andy Reid in the big moments with the game on the line. The Pats will take it 27-20 and head to Atlanta to try and secure ring No. 6.

The Patriots Broke the Record for Most Wins in a Decade…Previously Held by the Patriots

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ProFootballTalk – The New England Patriots on Sunday won their 127th game since 2010, which makes this the winningest decade in NFL history. Breaking a record set by the Patriots last decade.

As noted by the Patriots’ Twitter, the previous record for most wins in a decade was 126, set by the Patriots from 2000 to 2009.

Strength of schedule. Strength of division. In-season injuries to opponents. I feel like every year opposing fans have a different excuse as to why the Pats succeeded that season, some barely tangible proof that they aren’t as good as meets the eye.

Well, through the past decade, where over at least 160 games I would think the variables involved in all 32 NFL teams’ success cancel each other out to an extent, the Patriots have won more than any other team in NFL history. Over a full ten years, they have had more success and earned more victories than any previous team in that same, long, frame of reference. They won 127 times.

O, in case you were wondering whether or not the Patriots were truly a dynasty? I mean sure someone is trying to form as argument stating that this sustained success was is sort of smoke and mirrors. I mean we did go what, 10 years between Super Bowls? Sure. But the previous most successful team decade over decade? That would also be the Patriots, of the decade prior. From 2000 through 2009, we had 126 wins. In summary, we’ve had 20 straight years of running shit in the NFL AND I CANNOT WAIT for people like poor Bobby Kravitz to call the wambulance about a guy with a video camera and a few underinflated footballs. Because I am SURE that is how we’ve logged 253 wins since George W. Bush’s presidency began.

As we enter, as we seemingly do every year, the most important week of our football fandom careers, let’s quickly reflect. For those of us old enough to remember, times weren’t always good. We had some shitty teams, man – Drew Bledsoe trying to single-handedly win despite barely being mobile enough to do a 5 step drop, Terry Allen being signed at like 40 years old as a stop gap at RB, every promising pick we made, defense or offense, either busting out or suffering some sort of freak injury. But we stood strong. Every Sunday as our Dads and Uncles and whoever would crack a beer, we’d sit on the couch and nurse an apple juice and imagine what it would be like to be the Cowboys or the 9ers, and briefly the Packers, Broncos, or Rams.

And guess what? We transcended that. We smashed through that ceiling and now have the two winningest decades in football history. No one can take that away. So as we go into this weekend, watching our boys march in Arrowhead as underdogs. The scarred, outgunned veterans against an army of fast, young warriors, remember that we’ve been playing this very same game for 20 years straight. And we usually win.

Let’s fucking go Pats nation. Let’s fucking go.

-Joey B.

13 Year Old Andy Reid Was a Freakin’ MANCHILD

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Our faithful 300s readers know that we’ve got you covered on any and all things Patriots this week, both on the field and off, leading up to Sunday’s big game.

But this one has nothing to do with the upcoming AFC Championship; rather, we’re going to take a trip back in time to a “Monday Night Football” showdown between the Rams and Washington in 1971, when current Chiefs head coach Andy Reid was but a mere 13-year-old lad.

But, you see, Reid wasn’t just any 13 year old; he was an absolute freaking BEHEMOTH who probably went on packy runs for his friends before he was even allowed to drive.

Seriously, just LOOK at the size of this “child”:

He legitimately had an entire foot and a half on all of his fellow “peers” in line behind him along with a solid 75 bills. Not only that, but no young adolescent should be able to chuck the ball over a quarter of the way down the field. Ever.

It’s not surprising to find out that Reid went on to become an offensive tackle for BYU just seven years later and then went on to serve as a college offensive line coach for over a decade, before breaking into the NFL as an assistant with the Packers in the early ’90s.

Reid has had a pretty impressive NFL coaching career that has spanned over two and a half decades, which is no easy feat. But his most noteworthy football moment of his life actually occurred before he even took the SATs.

Happy Hump Day.

This Tom Brady Bill Belichick LEGO Mural is the Most Impressive Thing I’ve Ever Seen

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Lets just point out that this was in fact made by children. This magnificent magic eye mural of LEGO artwork was made by small humans. To put that into context, I did a 100 piece Snoopy puzzle on Christmas with the family and I almost flipped the table in blind rage nine times. HOW AM I SUPPOSED TO KNOW WHICH BLUE SKY PIECE GOES WHERE??

Well done, children. Well done.

#RushHourRap – 50 Cent – Many Men

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Tom Brady and I must have a mental connection because on Saturday night I went deep down the rabbit hole of 2000’s rap and got into a debate (at a 30th birthday party because I’m washed) about how Get Rich or Die Tryin’ is one of the best rap albums of all time. So what does Tom bump for his celebratory Monday workout? Many Men from Get Rich or Die Tryin’ of course. It’s been 15 years, but this album still goes hard and *nothing* beats the over the top style of early 2000’s music videos.

REAL TALK: Gronk is Now Basically an Offensive Lineman, and That’s OK

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Once one of the most dominant pass-catchers the game has ever seen, it appears as though Rob Gronkowski is quickly nearing the end of the line.

Not only has this been apparent from just the eyeball test alone, but rumors that he is once again considering retirement resurfaced yesterday as well – even though Gronk tried to downplay everything after the team’s victory over L.A.

Even the numbers don’t lie, though; since his misleading eight-catch, 107-yard performance against Miami in Week 14, here’s how it’s gone for Gronk ever since:

  • Week 15 (at Pittsburgh): 100% snaps played; 5 targets; 2 catches; 21 yards
  • Week 16 (vs. Buffalo): 79% snaps played; 1 target; 0 catches; 0 yards
  • Week 17 (vs. New York Jets): 81% of snaps played; 2 targets; 2 catches; 24 yards
  • AFC Divisional Round (vs. Los Angeles Chargers): 93% snaps played; 1 target; 1 catch; 25 yards

OH, and he’s also scored a total of zero touchdowns since the game down in Vice City as well.

There’s much more to take away from those numbers, though, besides simply saying that “Gronk looks cooked.” As a consistent, big-play, receiving target? Yeah, maybe he is cooked in that regard. But Gronk’s still played over three-quarters of the snaps – or more – for the past month, and Bill obviously isn’t going to keep him in there if he’s not providing something for the offense.

And that “something” that he provides has been excellent blocking up front. He’s basically been acting as a sixth offensive lineman for much of his time on the field lately, and it’s working.

This is not to say Gronk hasn’t been used as a blocker before; he’s actually been one of the game’s premier blockers at the tight end position throughout his whole career. However, the rate at which he’s been used as a blocker as opposed to a receiver has increased significantly. In 13 games last year, Gronk ran a passing route on 90.3 percent of his snaps, receiving 105 total targets; in 13 games this year, he’s been asked to go out for a pass on just 77.8 percent of his plays and has seen just 72 targets.

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This guy has been getting it done on the line for years.

The numbers. don’t. lie.

It should also be noted that the Pats’ rushing offense, which finished 10th in the league last season, jumped all the way up to fifth in 2018. Some may try to point out that we didn’t have Sony Michel last year, but we did have a guy named Dion Lewis, who averaged a pretty damn solid 5.0 yards per carry in 2017. So, no, it’s not all because of Sony Michel. (Yes, new addition Trent Brown and the rest of the O-line has played exceptionally well this year, too, so it’s not all Gronk. But still.)

Even Brady himself couldn’t stop from gushing about the big fella after yesterday’s game (h/t 247 Sports):

“Yeah, he’s a great blocker,” quarterback Tom Brady said after the win. “I think that’s something that goes maybe a little under the radar with his skill set, but he’s one of the most dominant blocking tight ends in the league. Again, he’s a threat when he catches it. Just did such a great job there to start the third quarter. He’s a threat any time he’s out there.”

And, as I pointed out in yesterday’s postgame piece, his epic block on Sony Michel’s 40-yard second-quarter run was the whole reason that play was even possible:

It might be hard to get a great view of No. 87’s stone-walling at first, but watch the bottom center-to-left corner of the screen, and you’ll eventually see the Chargers’ Kyle Emmanuel (No. 51) looking like an overpowered otter trying to swim upstream in the rapids. He had NO CHANCE of touching Sony on that play, and it was all because of Gronk.

He then did it again, to the same poor soul, on Rex Burkhead’s touchdown run just three plays later:

Of course, the Patriots are better with a healthy Gronk as the All-Pro tight end he used to be, but they certainly aren’t as desperate as some make it out to be without him. The team has averaged over 407 yards of offense (!) over the past four contests; the sky ain’t falling, folks. Relax.

In a season during which it’s been easy to hop all over Gronk for his “poor” play, I had to give the man the shine he deserves when doing the little things we don’t always catch during the flurry of action on the field.

You’re still a huge part of this team, Gronk. And if the team is going to be hoisting up that sixth banner next season, it certainly won’t happen without you on the field.

 

Patriots Chargers “We’re Going to the AFC Championship!!!” Postgame Reaction and Quick Hits

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Like clockwork, the Pats are heading back to the AFC Championship – for the EIGHTH. STRAIGHT. YEAR. (It’s also the THIRTEENTH time that Tom Brady is playing in the penultimate game of the season; that’s six more than the guy with the second-most championship game appearances all-time, Joe Montana, who has seven.)

So maybe I was entirely wrong about the whole “this is gonna be a close one” thing. But if you thought the Pats were going to hang over 40 points today, or beat the Chargers by almost two scores, you’re either a psychic or just outright lying.

Besides scoring some garbage-time second-half points, the Chargers were absolutely dominated in this one from start to finish, on both sides of the ball. They couldn’t stop the Patriots from doing anything they wanted to on offense, and the Pats D was in Philip Rivers’s face ALL DAY, sacking him twice and pressuring him on what seemed like almost every dropback.

And once Rivers gets flustered, it’s usually all downhill from there. While the guy is tough as nails and has put up some pretty impressive numbers in his career, he can easily fly off the handle. (Seriously, though, I’m surprised he didn’t actually take flight with how much he was flapping his arms around on Sunday.)

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This man has always been a bit of a hot-head.

The fact that the Pats also won the time of possession battle by over sixteen minutes (!) also demonstrates just how much they controlled the whole game. (That means they literally held the ball on offense for more than an entire quarter more than Los Angeles did.) They were able to do so behind an excellent performance from Sony Michel on the ground (129 yards, 3 TDs) – if you may recall, I said earlier this week that Michel would be this game’s X-factor – along with the tried-and-true short-passing offense, which was highlighted by a 15-catch effort from James White.

Also, Julian Edelman was phenomenal. His nine catches and 151 yards helped the Pats move the ball even further down the field, and he is now second all-time in postseason catches, only behind the legendary Jerry Rice.

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Old Faithful showed up to play again on Sunday.

Phillip Dorsett and Chris Hogan contributed as well, with seven combined grabs, but this game was about four guys: Brady, Edelman, White, and Michel. Period.

Stephon Gilmore and Jason McCourty held it down in pass coverage. Trey Flowers, Adam Butler, and Adrian Clayborn all dominated up front as well, not only constantly getting in Rivers’s face but also by holding the Chargers’ running game to just 19 measly yards. (Yes, much of this had to do with game script, as L.A. only ran the ball a total of 10 times. But still, they were able to stonewall Melvin Gordon, who averaged a pathetic 1.7 yards per tote on nine attempts.)

Unlike in years past, however, the Pats are not going to be playing the AFC Championship at home. Instead, they’ll be heading out to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs. That game will kick off at 6:40 p.m. next Sunday night. And that one will not be as easy. You can take that to the bank.

But, before we turn our attention to next weekend’s showdown at Arrowhead, here’s a few more quick notes from today’s victory:

  • People will be quick to point out that Rob Gronkowski was pretty much non-existent in this one. He wasn’t even targeted until late in the second quarter, and he finished with just one catch. BUT that run he had after that one catch resulted in 25 yards and a few steamrolled Chargers defenders. Even more importantly, he was still a vital part of the offense due to his excellent blocking; he laid a huge block at the line of scrimmage on Michel’s big 40-yard run in the second quarter. So, while he may not be as much of a threat in the passing game anymore, the man is still an absolute beast in short spurts.
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You may not be what you once were, but I know how important you still are to us, big guy.

  • Speaking of blocking, hats off all around to the offensive line. As I pointed out in my preview on Friday, this was a potentially life-changing game for impending free agent Trent Brown, who was tasked with taking on Melvin Ingram for much of the game. You know, the Melvin Ingram who is supposed to be one of the league’s top pass-rushers and the man who looked like Lawrence Taylor last week against Baltimore? Or how about Joey Bosa, who’s supposed to be the Chargers’ superstar up front but finished with one tackle and literally NOTHING else on the day? I honestly cannot believe how well the Pats were able to COMPLETELY scheme those two out of the game on Sunday. But they sure did. Boy, did they ever.
  • After being touted as one of the Pats’ biggest offseason acquisitions, Adrian Clayborn has been a major disappointment all season, finishing the year with just 2.5 sacks and 11 total tackles. He sure showed up to play today, though, with three QB hurries and a sack. Especially in a game where the team was without Deatrich Wise, who is dealing with an ankle issue, Clayborn stepped up big time.
  • For as much as Rivers made it look like the refs weren’t calling anything all day, the Pats were actually called for an alarming nine penalties, resulting in 75 yards. As has been pointed out before, this has been a really bad habit that the team has gotten itself into lately, and it’s just really surprising from a Bill-Belichick-coached team. It didn’t end up hurting them too much this afternoon, but they can’t do that again next week in Kansas City.

Feel good about this one, Pats Nation, but do not let this taint your view of what lies ahead. The Chiefs killed a red-hot Colts team on Saturday, and it is not going to be easy next Sunday night. (No, but I really mean it this time.)

Be sure to stay tuned to The 300s all week for all the coverage you need leading up to the big game!