Tag: player props

Gridiron Tales Week 16 Continued: A Thousand Miles (Sanders) Edition

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Eagles RB Miles Sanders week-to-week with lower body injury

Saturday: 0-2

Season: 24-15

Recap: See, what had happened was no one can predict injuries, let alone Stafford suffering an ankle injury early in the first quarter that would naturally sink his completions prop, while also ensuring that Leonard Fournette would only have to play the first half because the Bucs were on fire. We wish Matthew a speedy recovery.

But it’s a new day! Yes, it is!



The First Pick: Miles Sanders O80.5 rushing yards vs DAL (-112)

Fact #1: The Cowboys have allowed 146.2 rushing yards per game over the last 5 weeks, which is the 2nd-most yards allowed over that span.

Fact #2: The Cowboys have allowed 3 RBs (Dalvin Cook, Antonio Gibson and Gus Edwards) to each eclipse 100 yards on the ground.

Fact #3: Miles did eclipse 81 rush yards against the Saints (115), so we know he can do this with Hurts being more mobile than Wentz.


Second Pick: D.K. Metcalf U70.5 receiving yards vs LAR (-112)

Fact #1: Jalen Ramsey is on the other side of the ball.

Fact #2: The last time Ramsey was on the other side of the ball, Metcalf was held to 4 targets and 2 catches for 28 yards.

Fact #3: Metcalf has posted totals of 61 (vs NYJ) and 43 (at WFT) over the past two weeks.


Third Pick: Jalen Hurts O1.5 passing TDs vs DAL (+100)

Fact #1: The only QBs not to pass for at least 2 scores against Dallas this season are Jared Goff (Week 1), Daniel Jones (Week 5), Alex Smith (Week 12) and Brandon Allen (Week 14). Yes, that means Wentz threw 2 scores on Dallas in the first meeting!

Fact #2: Hurts is coming off a 3-pass TD game against Arizona and this game could very much mirror that one for him.


Fourth Pick: Justin Herbert O24.5 completions vs DEN (-112)

Fact #1: In the first matchup, he totaled 29 back in Week 8, albeit with Keenan Allen in the lineup.

Fact #2: Mahomes (25), Bridgewater (30) and Josh Allen (28) have each completed 25+ passes on Denver’s defenses over the last 3 weeks.

Fact #3: Herbert has completed 25+ passes in three of his last 4 games.

Bonus: With many receivers down in this Browns-Jets game, I have to put a sprinkle on fellow Owl Harrison Bryant to score a TD (+300)

Gridiron Tales Week 16: Thy Rod and Thy (Matthew) Stafford, They Comfort Me Edition

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Last Week: 4-2

Season: 24-13

Recap: After a disappointing start with the Saturday games, DeAndre Hopkins and Rashard Higgins provided us with a 3-0 Sunday/Monday bounce back.


Today’s Pick: Matthew Stafford O23.5 completions vs TB (-112)

Fact #1: Tampa has allowed the 4th-most completions over the past five weeks (33.5 per game), despite only playing four games in this span.

Fact #2: Since Week 7, Teddy Bridgewater (18 in Week 10) is the only opposing QB that hasn’t reached at least 24 completions vs TB.

Fact #3: Stafford is averaging 25.3 completions over his last four, including 24+ in three of those contests.


Second Pick: Leonard Fournette O65.5 rushing yards vs DET (-118)

Fact #1: The Bucs are again without Ronald Jones.

Fact #2: Over the last three weeks, the Lions have allowed David Montgomery (72), Aaron Jones (69) and Derrick Henry (147) to all eclipse 65 rushing yards.

Fact #3: Fournette turned 14 rushes in 49 yards and two scores last week against a much better run defense in Atlanta, so one can reasonably assume he reaches his total against a struggling run defense.

12.23.20 Hoop Tales: The Rockets Ruin A Good Thing Edition

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Record: 0-2 (-2 units)

Tuesday Recap: Kawhi needed 26 shots to reach 26 points and we lost by the hook. On the East Coast, the Nets played “too well” and it forced Joe Harris to get rest for most of the second half. Mind you he had 6 points after the first quarter and finished with 10 — a bucket shy of his over.

I just want to preface these picks with a quick mention that I had amazing reasons to play Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s O22.5 points tonight against the Rockets, including an excuse to use a “Hamilton” gif and the Rockets ruined this opportunity.


First Pick: Domantas Sabonis O18.5 Pts (-121) vs NYK

Fact #1: Sabonis faced the Knicks 3x last season totaling 19, 25 and 24 points respectively.

Fact #2: The Knicks’ front court is returning both Julius Randle and Mitchell Robinson, which are matchups that Sabonis took advantage of last season.


Second Pick: Rudy Gobert O13.5 Pts (-117) vs POR

Fact #1: In three meeting last season, Gobert totaled 16, 6 and 16 respectively.

Fact #2: Subtract: Hassan Whiteside (Sac-Town)… Add: Enes Kanter back in Portland and you have a recipe for success

Fact #3: Jusuf Nurkić will reportedly be a minutes restriction (20), which means more Kanter, which means Gobert should get easy looks at the rim.

Hoop Tales: Opening Night in the Association Edition

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Breaking news animation: Jimmy Lips aka Big Game James knows hoops as well!

Normally, I’d wait to a few games in order to be able to draw from a sample size bigger than two preseason games, but these two picks seem too good to pass up.

First Pick: Joe Harris O11.5 points (-121) vs GSW

Fact #1: In the bubble, which seems like ages ago, Joe Harris averaged 19.1 points per game?.

“But James, that was without Kyrie, KD and Dinwiddie!”

I know, it’s called making a point that he can get buckets.

Fact #2: In the limited two-game sample size, the second of which the Nets treated like a real game, Harris went for 4 and 14 respectively. The 14 matters because the Nets treated the Celtics game like a regular-season tuneup.

Fact #3: There’s no Draymond and no Klay, which rids Joe Harris of potentially be guarded by two of the league’s best on the perimeter.

Fact #4: Harris averaged career bests in FGs Made (5.5) and attempted (11.4). With Kyrie and KD on the floor, he should rarely face a contested jumper/3-pointer.


Second pick: Kawhi Leonard O26.5 points (+112) vs LAK

Fact #1: There’s no convincing me that Kawhi and PG13 aren’t pissed off that A) Their arena mates won the title and B) All those questionable leadership and behavioral traits leaked to the public.

Fact #2: In 4 games against the Lakers last season, Leonard notched totals of 30 (opening night), 35, 27 and 28 — an average of 30 flat per contest.

Fact #3: There’s no way Bron guards Kawhi all game and when that duty is left to the combination of Matthews and KCP, the Board Man will have an easier time reaching his over points total.

Gridiron Tales Week 15 Continued: Late Slate WR Edition

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Saturday: 1-2

Season: 21-13

Recap: Missing the Lock prop by 2 completions is infuriating when you realize that they ran the clock out with 3 straight runs to end the game. Tonyan had 2 catches in the first quarter and just one over the final three, but the TD prop did cash.

Today’s Pick: DeAndre Hopkins O87.5 receiving yards (-112) and O7.5 catches (+106) vs PHI

Fact #1: Eagles top corner Darius Slay is out today… not like that has appeared to matter the past couple of weeks

Fact #2: The Eagles have allowed the 3rd-most receiving yards to WRs over the last five weeks (943)

Fact #3: Hopkins has 24 targets (8 and 9 catches, respectively) over the last two games

Fact #4: The Eagles have surrendered 8+ catches to DK Metcalf (10), Davante Adams (10) and Michael Thomas (8) over their last three games


2nd Pick: Rashard Higgins O51.5 receiving yards (+100) vs NYG

Fact #1: I hate picking props against my team

Fact #2: Higgins has 95 and 68 yards, respectively over his last two games while also seeing his snap % increase over each of the past five games

Fact #3: The Giants will be without top cornerback James Bradberry, who is on the Covid list

Gridiron Tales Week 15: It’s Saturday (Oooh! Ooooh!) Football Edition

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Last Week: 2-2

Season: 20-11

Highlight the Highs: David Montgomery is in a groove right now and no one plays catch-up football like Kirk Cousins

Loathe the Lows: The Chargers continue to play funk 4th quarter football as last week’s game vs ATL and now Thursday’s tilt against the Raiders showed. Also, Mike Glennon was well on his way to reaching his completion total until he was benched due to his defense not tackling Derrick Henry.

But today is a special day. Why? Because we get NFL games + it’s Saturday!

And now that you’ve been all in your feelings about how awesome 2001 music was, I bring you today’s first pick:


Drew Lock O21.5 completions (-118) vs BUF

Fact #1: Lock is coming off his best game of the season last week against the Panthers (280 and 4 scores)

Fact #2: Buffalo is allowing an average of 24 completions per game on the road compared to 22.9 at home

Fact #3: Buffalo has allowed four of its last five opponents to complete at least 22 completions, including Russell Wilson (28), Kyler Murray (22), Justin Herbert (31) and Nick Mullens (26).



Robert Tonyan O3.5 receptions (-124) vs CAR

Fact #1: The Panthers have allowed 27 catches to TE over the past 5 weeks — T-5th-most in the NFL over that span — despite only playing 4 games (Avg: 6.75)

Fact #2: Tonyan has 4+ catches in four straight games, including a TD in each of those contests

Fact #3: Since Week 8, Hayden Hurst (5), Travis Kelce (10), T.J. Hockenson (4), Kyle Rudolph (7) and both Nick Vannett (4) and Troy Fumagalli (4) have all caught at least four passes against Carolina.

TLDR: Every TE except Gronk (Bucs) has reached at least 4 receptions against the Panthers since Week 8.

Bonus: Panthers have allowed 3 TE TDs over their last four games, which when combined with Tonyan’s current TD streak, makes it worth a sprinkle at the very least (+160 anytime TD)

Gridiron Tales Week 14: You Like That Edition

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Last week: 4-0

Season: 18-9

Highlight the Highs: Everything went well last week, including a Tuesday night special that saw Andy Dalton go over with his completions.

Nothing to loathe when you go 4-0!


The pick: Mike Glennon O23.5 completions (-106) vs Titans

Fact #1: The Titans defense is allowing an average of 26.2 completions per game — the most in the NFL over the past 5 weeks

Fact #2: Glennon turned 31 on Saturday, so this would be a great present to himself and over suitors

Fact #3: They’ll be playing catch-up when their defense lets Mr. Henry run all over them

The pick: Kirk Cousins O22.5 completions (-118) vs the Buccaneers

Fact 1: The Bucs have allowed an average of 31.3 completions per game over the past five weeks — the most in the NFL over this span (4 games played)

Fact #2: Tompa Bay has allowed the fewest rushing yards to RBs over this same 5-week span (233; 58.3 rush yds/game). So as great as Mr. Cook is, Tompa Bay is built to slow him down.

Fact #3: Since Week 7, Teddy “2 Gloves” (18) is the only QB not to complete at least 23 passes against Tompa Bay.

James Koh on Twitter: "PODCAST! Broncos insider @TroyRenck gives us the latest news regarding Kirk Cousins and how keeping or cutting Emmanuel Sanders/Demaryius/CJ Anderson will play a role in signing him. https://t.co/gtQRqGUdD2…

The Pick: Justin Herbert O274.5 passing yards (-129) vs ATL

Fact #1: Everyone and their mother expects Herbert to bounce back after last week’s 45-0 drubbing at the hands of new England

Fact #2: Herbert has attempted 154 passes over the past 3 games, resulting in totals of 366 (vs NYJ), 316 (@ BUF) and 209 against New England last week

Fact #3: The Falcons have allowed the 9th-fewest passing yards over the past 5 weeks for two reasons:

Reason No. 1: They’ve faced Taysom Hill twice

Reason No. 2: They’ve played four games when most have played five (bye week)

Fact #4: Herbert averages 314.8 pass yards per game at home compared to 267 on the road

The Pick: David Montgomery O67.5 rushing yards (-112) vs HOU

Fact #1: Montgomery has eclipsed 70 rushing yards in three of his last four games

Fact #2: The Texans have allowed a league-high 620 rushing yards over the last five weeks

Gridiron Tales Week 13: Red Rifle Edition

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This weekend: 3-0

Season: 17-9

I’ll spare you the recap of telling you how awesome I was with Mayfield’s over completions and David Montgomery’s over rushing total hitting before the third quarter; You don’t want to hear that stuff! Derek Carr did give us a bit of a scare though,

The Pick: Andy Dalton O20.5 completions vs BAL (+100)

Disclosure: When I looked at this 2 hours ago, it was +100, DraftKings now shows -124, which is still good.

Fact #1: Ravens are allowing 23.6 completions per game over their last 5 — 7th most in NFL over that span.

Fact #2: Cam Newton (13) and Joe Burrow (19) are the only QBs to not hit 21+ vs DAL this season.

Fact #3: Since returning from a concussion, Dalton’s 2 games are 21 (@ MIN) and 25 (vs WFT) completions.

Gridiron Tales Week 13

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Last week: 3-2

Season: 14-9

Highlight the Highs: I was proud of myself for nailing Wentz’s over completion total given that he and the Eagles had an abysmal start on MNF against the Seahawks.

Loathe the Lows: I expected Jalen Reagor to catch one deep ball on that suspect Seahawks secondary and it just never came to fruition.


The Pick: David Montgomery O61.5 rushing yards vs DET (-148)

Let me preface this with the fact that when I looked at this prop on Saturday night, it was around the -110/-120 area. Even with the heavier juice, I still like it and here’s why:

Fact #1: The Lions have allowed the second-most rushing yards over the last five weeks (594)

Fact #2: Back in Week 1, Montgomery finished with 13 carries for 64 yards

Fact #3: Montgomery has had rushing totals of 89, 30 and 103, respectively, over his last three games



The Pick: Derek Carr O23.5 completions vs NYJ (+101)

Fact #1: This prop is more about the opposing defense than it is the QB

Fact #2: The Jets have allowed the 5th-most completions (122) to QBs over the last five weeks, despite only playing 4 games in that span (avg of 30.5)

Fact #3: Since Week 5, only one QB (Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week 6) has failed to complete fewer than 24 passes against New York.



The Pick: Baker Mayfield O227.5 passing yards vs TEN (-112)

Fact #1: The Titans have allowed the 3rd-most completions (132) and fifth-most passing yards (1,373) to QBs over the last five weeks (avg of 274.6)

Fact #2: Over the last four weeks, only Lamar Jackson (186) failed to pass for fewer than 295 yards against TEN, which includes QBs Nick Foles and Philip Rivers x2