Tag: Sony Michel

Patriots Bears Week 7 Game Preview, Odds, and Things to Watch For

By on • ( Leave a comment )
Image result for tom brady chicago bears

Photo cred: NBCSports.com

Three-straight wins have fans throughout Pats Nation flying high right now. Especially after beating the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday night, many might believe that this week’s opponent, the Chicago Bears, should be an absolute cake walk.

However, hubris can often taint reality, and the 3-2 Monsters of the Midway certainly ain’t no slouches. (And truthfully, they should be 4-1 after blowing an 11-point fourth-quarter lead on Sunday, ultimately losing in overtime to BROCK FREAKIN’ OSWEILER and the Miami Dolphins.)

As always, here’s a quick look at where, when, and how to watch the game along with the latest lines:

  • Location: Soldier Field (Chicago, IL)
  • Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 21, 1 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS
  • Odds (via Odds Shark): Patriots: -3.5 (spread) / Patriots: -158 (moneyline) / 49.5 (total)

As I said, the Bears are no longer a pushover after four-straight years which saw them win no more than six games in a season – including a really rough 3-13 performance in 2016. In fact, many people, including myself, had them as one of the top sleeper teams for 2018.

Even before acquiring super human/mutant freak talent Khalil Mack from the Oakland Raiders just days before the season began, the Bears were already pretty solid on the defensive side of the ball. Though they finished with a 5-11 record last year, Chicago still had the league’s 10th-ranked defense and posted 42 sacks, which tied for seventh in the league. Adding Mack to the unit has vaulted them up to third in the league through five games in 2018 (they had a bye in Week 5), and their 18 sacks are good for fifth in the league. They’re also tied for second in the league in interceptions. So let’s just say Brady and the boys may not have as easy of a time moving the ball in the Windy City this weekend as they have the past couple of weeks.

Image result for khalil mack

Mack is one of those guy’s truly deserving of being called a “generational” talent. The man is an absolute freak of nature.

(Side note: Mack injured his ankle early on in Sunday’s loss to the Dolphins. He finished the contest but wasn’t quite as effective as the game wore on. Per the team’s website, he’s considered day-to-day and is expected to play, but perhaps he won’t be as much of a force as he typically is.)

The Bears are very talented on offense as well, and the entire unit has been opened up this year with first-year head coach Matt Nagy, an offensive whiz who helped Andy Reid run the show in Kansas City for the past two seasons. Not only has he helped fuel quarterback Mitchell Trubisky’s development tremendously, but his scheme allows for multiple guys to be involved each week, so it’s not like Belichick can simply hone in on taking away the opponent’s top weapon like he usually does.

Allen Robinson – just three year’s removed from a 1,400-yard season in Jacksonville – leads the way for the receiving corps. Speedster Taylor Gabriel has really come on lately as well, posting two-straight 100-yard performances and proving that he’s not simply just the gadget, change-of-pace player he was before coming to Chicago this season. His 27 receptions in 2018 are just nine short of his career high, which is a mark he should easily surpass within the next couple of weeks, if not sooner.

Image result for taylor gabriel

Speed has hurt the Pats this year, and Gabriel has PLENTY of it.

Also, tight end Trey Burton is an athletic piece who came over from Philly this offseason. While his 15 catches at this point are perhaps a little less than some anticipated, he’s still averaging over 13 yards per grab and can hurt you if you’re not careful. Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen form a nice thunder-and-lighting combo out of the backfield as well, with the former being more of a grinder and Cohen being the electric, do-it-all wildcard who’s totaled 295 yards (!) of offense over the last two games.

(FIRE FLAMES ALERT 🔥🔥🔥: Cohen is going to go bananas in this game. Again, not only has the guy compiled almost 300 yards of offense on just 32 touches the past two games – averaging out to 9.2 yards per touch – but only four teams have given up more receiving yards to opposing running backs this season than the Pats (349). Everyone thought Howard was going to be the No. 1 guy in the offense for the Bears this year – much to the chagrin of his fantasy owners, which includes yours truly – but Cohen is looking like he might take the job from him outright.)

Image result for tarik cohen
He might be little (5’6″, 179 pounds), but don’t let his size fool you; the kid is a baller.

Back to Trubisky. After a pretty lackluster showing through 12 games as a rookie last year – a year in which he completed just 59 percent of his passes for 2,193 yards with seven scores and seven picks – he’s made quite the leap so far in 2018. Not only is he completing a very healthy 70 percent of his tosses, but his 11-to-4 TD-to-INT ratio is also pretty solid. He also threw SIX touchdowns in Week 4 against Tampa Bay. (To be fair, I think I could probably get at least one or two against the Bucs this season, as their defense is simply atrocious. But what Trubisky did is still impressive nonetheless.) And he’s averaged over 32 yards a game on the ground this season, with 100 rushing yards over the past two games alone, so he can get it done with his legs as well.

Image result for mitchell trubisky
Mitchy’s looking like he might be worth that high draft price after all.

This team is extremely balanced, and they’ve got enough on both sides of the ball to keep up with the Pats in this one.

Storylines

(Continue to Keep Brady Clean): The Pats have done a very nice job of protecting Brady so far this year, surrendering just eight sacks in total so far. Considering they’ve faced the likes of Houston, Jacksonville, and Indianapolis – all teams with 15-plus sacks already – that is extremely impressive. Add in the fact that Tommy Boy is no spring chicken and may not be quite as nimble as he once was, and it’s definitely a stat the O-lineman can hang their hats on. As mentioned above, the Bears are tied for fifth in the league with 18 QB takedowns this year, and Mack is an absolute demon to be reckoned with (although his ankle could slow him down a bit this week). Trent Brown and the rest of the boys up front should have their hands full again in this one.

(Michel and White to Face First Real Test): The Bears are the first top-10 run defense that Pats rookie Sony Michel will face this year, as he didn’t play in the team’s season-opener against the Texans, and they’ll be just the second for James White. Michel’s tough running style should allow him to at least grind out the clock if the Pats have the lead and maybe get a goal line score, but don’t expect much from White on Sunday. Not only do I expect White’s ball-carrying opportunities to be scaled back this week, but the Bears also only allow 25.6 receiving yards out of the backfield per game. The Bears also haven’t allowed even one rushing touchdown so far this season. Brady’s going to need to get it done through the air this week.

Image result for james white
Love ya, James, but I don’t think this is gonna be your week, bud.

Prediction

Both teams get off to a slow start, with each of them only scoring around 10 points by halftime. Due to the physical, old-school nature of the game, the defense wears down a bit on each side in the second half. This will allow for a couple nice drives from the Pats and one or two big plays from the Bears (see: Gabriel, Taylor and Cohen, Tarik) later in the game. In the end, this one will be close, with the Pats eeking out a 24-20 victory.

Patriots Chiefs Postgame Thoughts and Quick-Hitters

By on • ( Leave a comment )

Image result for patriots chiefs

The Patriots remain in a first-place tie with the Miami Dolphins atop the AFC East after beating the Kansas City Chiefs in an intense battle on Sunday night. What a helluva a game it was, too. It truly was a blast from start to finish.

While I may have been off by 10 points on each side, I still pretty much nailed the game script in my preview last week – I said the Pats would win 33-30 on a late field goal; the Pats won 43-40 on a last-second field goal – and nobody should’ve been shocked by the sheer show of offensive force by either side last night.

As Belichick always says, the game wasn’t perfect and there are still some things to work on, but overall I think Pats Nation can feel pretty good about the team’s Week 6 victory. Here are a few other quick takeaways from the game to check out before you get your week started.

Josh Gordon Officially Unleashed

New England Patriots wide receiver Josh Gordon, center, runs after catching a pass, as Kansas City Chiefs defensive back Orlando Scandrick (22) and defensive end Allen Bailey (97) defend during the first half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Oct. 14, 2018, in Foxborough, Mass. (AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)

Looking purely at his stat line – five receptions for 42 yards and no scores – you might think using the term “unleashed” is a bit over the top. But when you consider the fact that he led the team with nine targets and played on 81 percent of the team’s snaps, I think it’s safe to say the training wheels have definitely been removed. (As relayed by Fantasy Pros, he also led the team in routes run [35], target share [26%], and air yards share [29%]. The guy could actually be on the verge of EXPLODING.) For someone who many assumed to be a bit volatile between the ears, there should be no doubt about his football I.Q., as he has learned the playbook very quickly and has been receiving quite the praise from teammates and coaches alike. While he’ll continue to have a lot of competition for targets all season long, he’s obviously going to be a big part of this offense moving forward and has pacified any and all fears of him “not fitting in.” This move could turn out to be an absolute steal by the Pats. #FlashGordon

Sony Michel Continues to Impress

Image result for sony michel chiefs

The rookie kept on rolling last night, rushing for over 100 yards for the second time in the past three games – in the other game he finished just short of the century mark, with 98 yards – and he is now averaging a healthy 4.4 yards per carry on the season. He was also able to punch the ball in twice on the goal line and picked up some very tough ground in other short-yardage situations, including a big conversion on 3rd-and-1 with just under two minutes to go in the game. In fact, both Brady and Belichick mentioned Michel’s short-yardage prowess in their post-game pressers, with both also alluding to the fact that the team’s previous struggles in this area were a big reason why they lost to Kansas City in last year’s season-opener. Michel, while not nearly as big, is the team’s best power back since LeGarrette Blount, and he runs with a beautiful combination of violence and agility. As long as those balky knees hold up, we might have a freakin’ stud in this kid.

I See You, Pass-Rush

Image result for trey flowers chiefs

A week ago, I wrote a piece sounding the alarm on the Patriots pass-rush, basically saying there wasn’t one and that we should maybe start worrying about the boys up front on D. However, even though the team finished with no sacks and just three QB hits on Sunday night, much of that had to do with Patrick Mahomes’s mobility and elusiveness, and it was hard not to notice the improved pressure the team was creating. Adrian Clayborn particularly looked great, bull-rushing his way into the backfield on what seemed like every play, especially early on. Trey Flowers had a solid game as well, finishing with a QB hit and seven total tackles, including one for a loss. Besides a few big plays – and I mean BIG plays in which the Chiefs gained a lot of yards – I thought the defense was actually a positive overall last night (yes, even after allowing 40 points).

So, again, there’s certainly a lot to be happy about from Sunday night, and the Pats proved that they’re at least still one of the AFC’s top contenders, if not the entire NFL. Next up is a matchup with the 3-2 Chicago Bears next Sunday at Soldier Field, and as always be sure to check back in with The 300s on Thursday for the game preview.

Patriots vs Dolphins Half Assed Halftime Reactions

By on • ( Leave a comment )

-The Dolphins are 3-0 and think they’re going to take the Patriots out back and finish them off before October? That’s cute. Okay Dolphins fans, daddy’s home.

-CORDEL! It’s only Cordarrelle Patterson’s 8th career TD so people wonder why Tom Brady is pissy, but in a busted coverage Cordel did what he does best;

-Tom Brady has now tied the NFL record for TDs to 70 different receivers. He is king of the trashcan receivers, matched only by former teammate Vinny Testaverde.

-You think Sony Michel’s been listening to all the talking heads on sports radio calling him a bust after TWO fucking weeks? He’s only averaging 5.3 yards per carry with 80 yards in the first half.

-Ryan Tannehill is still trash. Despite coming into this game top 5 in stats like Completion %, TD %,  Yards per Attempt, and QB Rating, he’s come into Gillette and turned back into a pumpkin.

-Bill Belichick gave us an early entry into GIF of the year with his reaction to a Dolphins defender faking an injury to stop a play.

-Even Phillip Dorsett is flashing them 1st Round hands.

-I still miss you Danny, you handsome son of a bitch.

Patriots Dolphins Week 4 Game Preview, Odds, and Things to Watch For

By on • ( Leave a comment )

Image result for patriots dolphins

So that was an ugly one last week. Not to take anything away from the Lions, but I can’t remember the last time I’ve seen a Brady-led, Belichick-coached team play that poorly. Mental mistakes. Missed throws. No pass-rush. A sieve of a defensive front that allowed Detroit to record its first 100-yard-rusher in a game for the first time in FIVE years. Also, the Pats scored their lowest point total (10) in over two seasons.

WOOF.

Fortunately, the Pats get to face a familiar foe this weekend – albeit an undefeated one – as the 3-0 Miami Dolphins are set to come to Foxborough this weekend. As always, here’s a look at where, when, and how to watch the game along with the latest lines:

  • Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, MA)
  • Kickoff: Sunday, Sept. 30, 1 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS (Check local listings)
  • Odds (via Odds Shark): Patriots: -6.5 (spread)/Patriots: -280 (moneyline)/48 (total)

After missing all of 2017 and the very end of 2016 due to injury, Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill has come back this year GUNS BLAZING. Sure, he’s only played the Titans, Jets, and Raiders so far, but he’s completed 73 percent of his passes for almost 700 yards and seven touchdowns. He’s also only thrown two picks and has a ridiculous 121.8 QB rating. Oh, and he led the Dolphins to 8 of their 10 wins before going down in 2016, a season in which they made the playoffs. I don’t know when and where the whole “Tannehill sucks” rhetoric started, but it’s entirely inaccurate.

Image result for ryan tannehill

Now, if you wanted to say Tannehill sucks whenever he has to play at Gillette, I actually can’t argue with ya there. In five games on the road in New England, Tannehill is winless and the Dolphins have only once been able to score over 20 points.

But it’s been two years since Tannehill last laced ’em up in Foxborough, and things are simply way different on so many levels. Firstly, the Dolphins have been incredibly efficient on offense this season, and that might have to do with no longer relying solely upon Jarvis Landry. Now, before I go any further, I mean no disrespect toward Landry, the game’s best slot receiver and a perennial 100-catch guy.

But letting Landry go has forced Tannehill to look toward spreading the ball around much more, and now the Dolphins feature a solid corps of Kenny Stills, Albert Wilson, Jakeem Grant, Devante Parker, and, as much as it KILLS me to see, Danny Amendola. Due to the less predictable offense the team is running under Adam Gase, Tannehill has yet to throw 30 passes in a game so far in 2018, making the most of each of his opportunities. No Dolphins receiver is averaging more than five targets per game, so the Pats defense will need make sure they have eyes all over the field on Sunday.

Image result for danny amendola dolphins

This is going to be like watching your ex-girlfriend show up to the party with that insufferable douchebag you always hated.

The running game has been a bit lackluster. Many expected second-year back Kenyan Drake to run away with the job after a breakout rookie campaign, but for some reason Gase is sticking with a timeshare between Drake and a 35-year-old Frank Gore – who, save for a great Week 1 performance, has averaged just under 2.5 yards a carry over the last two games. Drake has the ability to hurt anyone, but until they figure things out in the backfield I’m not all too worried about the Fins ground attack.

The poor running game and quick-strike offense has killed the Dolphins in terms of time of possession, which could soon really start to wear on the team’s defense. Alas, the D has still looked pretty decent this year, playing to the tune of a very Belichick-ian “bend don’t break” philosophy, as pointed out by Joe Schad of the Palm Beach Post:

The Dolphins defense is currently 21st in the NFL in yards allowed, but sixth in points allowed. That’s a crazy discrepancy, even with the small sample size of three games. Miami is tied for second in the NFL with a +4 turnover margin. And the Dolphins are third in the NFL in red zone defense.

Cornerback Xavien Howard, who had two interceptions against the Raiders last week, has been a revelation in 2018, and Chris Hogan will once again likely have a tough matchup. At least Brady can take solace in the fact the Dolphins have just six sacks on the year and rank second to last in the league with 12 QB hits.

Storylines

(Will Josh Gordon Actually Play?): Good Lord, I hope so. In typical Patriots fashion, we have yet to receive even the slightest bit of information regarding Gordon’s Week 4 status, so I’m not even going to venture a guess on this one.

Image result for josh gordon patriots

Here’s all we have to go off so far (h/t 985thesportshub.com):

“We’ll just take it day-by-day and see how it goes,” Belichick remarked. “There are a number of factors involved here. When he feels like he’s ready and we feel like he’s ready and there’s sufficient opportunity to back that up then we’ll see about making him active.”

Thanks, Bill! Always keeping us on our toes. Looks like we may not get an answer on this one until right before kickoff on Sunday.

(Sooo…Yeah, I Guess Sony IS the Guy Now): With Rex Burkhead seemingly done for the year, the Patriots have pretty much no choice but to rely upon Sony Michel to carry the load for the foreseeable future. Yes, James White will see quite a bit of burn as well, but he’s not a chain-moving, 15-plus-carry-a-game guy. Michel is going to be force-fed the rock, as evidenced by his 24 carries and five targets over the last two games. While he’s only averaged 3.5 yards per tote so far, I’m remaining hopeful. While I have been critical of the team placing so much faith in a guy with such an extensive injury history, I’ve never questioned his talent. I’m excited to see what the kid can do. He just better be ready to roll from here on out.

Image result for sony michel

It’s your time to shine, kid. Don’t let me down.

(The Linebackers Are Looking a Little Rough): The Pats are one of six teams allowing over 400 yards of total offense per game this season, and they are one of only two allowing over 140 yards on the ground. Now they will be without standout rookie Ja’Whuan Bentley – Pro Football Focus’s fifth-highest-rated linebacker through the season’s first three weeks (h/t Patriots Wire) – for a while, if not the whole season. Dont’a Hightower is still sharp as a tack and one of the best defensive signal-callers in the league, but he’s looked painfully slow at times this year. And after allowing the Lions to rush for over 150 yards as a team last week, maybe this is Drake’s opportunity to prove himself once and for all. (I know I said earlier that I’m not too worried about the Dolphins rushing attack, but I was basing that solely off of who they’ve played so far this year.) The middle of the defense could potentially be gashed in this one, unless somebody else decides to step up.

Prediction 

Sorry to say it, Pats Nation, but this could end up being another shocker. As they say, there’s a first time for everything, and Tannehill and Miami’s extremely fluid offense are in a prime position to flip the script. I do think that Brady & Co. will play much better on offense this time around, especially if Gordon plays and Michel gets it going. But I’m unsure if the defense is prepared enough to shut down Tannehill like in years past. While Belichick will be DAMNED if he lets Amendola show him up, Miami’s plethora of other weapons on offense will be too much for the Pats to keep up with. Brady will keep it close, but in the end the Dolphins will come out on top, 21-17, giving them a puke-worthy three-game lead over the Pats in the AFC East.

Patriots Place Rex Burkhead and Ja’Whaun Bentley on IR

By on • ( Leave a comment )

When it rains it pours I suppose. After getting trounced by Detroit, and in particular on defense, the Patriots just placed their most promising linebacker in Ja’Whaun Bentley as well as their most used runningback in Rex Burkhead on IR.

This is less than ideal.

Ja’Whaun Bentley had a rough game last week, but he’s a rookie so that is to be expected from time to time. Bentley was the story of training camp though and was projected to be the stud linebacker the team needed this year. Especially with how slow Dont’a Hightower has looked thus far. I don’t know if its just shaking off the rust after missing almost all of last year or if its years or injuries catching up with a now 28-year-old linebacker. Either way, not a great time for a young LB to go down with injury.

Now Rex Burkhead is the least surprising injury news of all time as that guy is hurt basically all the time. Super effective when he’s healthy, but it seems like his body just can’t handle the workload the Patriots want to put on him. We talked about it on The 300s Podcast on our season preview and debated whether Burkhead was injury prone or if last year was just a fluke. Nope, seems like this is a guy who is finally getting an everydown back level of touches and his body just can’t hold up.

That means its time for Sony Michel to sink or swim! He’s looked ok, not great, the first 2 games of his career, but for the talking heads on 98.5 to already be screaming that Michel is a bust is laughable. Maybe give the rookie who had zero training camp snaps more than 2 weeks to find his groove in the NFL.

This is a club thats getting a little crowded.

My Patriots Confidence Meter is Officially at Concerned Level

By on • ( Leave a comment )

I’m not, not worried about the Patriots if we’re being honest. After last night’s double digit loss to the Detroit Lions, on my Meter of Confidence, I am currently residing at Concerned, one tick below Alarmed.

It’s only September. It’s only September. It’s only September. Thats what I keep telling myself. However, that was a piss poor effort against a winless team in the Lions. I do want to see this team at full strength with Julian Edelman and Flowers and Chung back before making any final assessments, but those decisions could be made for the Pats before they’re able to get back to full strength.

Well when you say it like that…

Hurley’s right though, even when they do get all their guys back, thats not promising any season altering improvements.

A loss to the 3-0 Dolphins next week would put the Pats at 1-3 and 3 games out of first place as well as putting us Patriots fans in an uncommon position; looking up in the AFC East. I’m also trying to keep my expectations in check because it would be totally unfair to expect hope a guy who’s played 11 games in the last four years to be Tom Brady’s savior at receiver. Unfortunately that what this team needs right now. A game changer.

Or they need to get a whole hell of a lot more creative with the ball. James White, one of the Patriots most reliable veterans on a team suddenly searching for answers, only had 3 touches last night. THREE. One of which was a touchdown, ironically enough. Listen I love Sony Michel and I know the Patriots spent a 1st round pick on him, but having Michel outsnap the veteran while he continues to drop balls is not a recipe for success. It would seem like Tom Brady agrees too.

“Yeah, he had a great catch, and had some good runs there at the end. He’s just a great player for us. So, you’re right. He’s gotta be involved. Guys who can make plays are the ones that should be involved. And James is certainly one of them.”

Thats before we even get to the gigantic elephant in the room. There has been drama swirling around this team for the past year, which started with the Seth Wickersham article and culminated this week with the “Brady wants a divorce from Belichick” story and then on Sunday afternoon Adam Schefter reported that the Pats nearly traded Rob Gronkowski to the Lions only to have Gronk threaten to retire rather than accept a trade to Detroit.

All great news to come out hours before a game. Welp, Gronk finished the game with 4 receptions for 51 yards and 0 TDs after getting double teamed the whole game and then made the whole situation infinitely worse by confirming Schefty’s report post-game.

“Yeah, it happened,” Gronkowski said after New England’s loss to the Lions Sunday night. “Brady’s my quarterback. I’m not going anywhere without Brady.”

And then there’s Gronk’s brother coming to Rob’s defense before anyone pointed to his middling stat line.

So thats just great. Lets not even pretend to be a non-dysfunctional team anymore. Again, I’m not panicking quite yet, as you would want your star TE to want to continue playing for your team. Players threatening to retire doesn’t exactly inspire confidence and trust with the rest of the team, but hey at least he wants to play *here* Right?

I will never count out a Tom Brady led Patriots team until the ink is dry on his retirement papers. Hell I probably won’t doubt a Patriots comeback until I see Tom is his gold jacket.

But with that being said, if the Patriots drop another game next week against RYAN TANNEHILL and the Dolphins, then my meter will officially tick to Alarmed and we will be on Panic watch from there on out.

Patriots Lions Week 3 Game Preview, Odds, and Things to Watch For

By on • ( Leave a comment )

Related image

I may have been off by about five points in terms of point differential, but I pretty much nailed last week’s game prediction. The Jags simply look like the team to beat in the AFC right now, and I am not surprised at all that Brady & Co. took an L down in the Sunshine State in Week 2.

Fortunately, the Pats have a good chance at a bounce-back game in a prime-time matchup against old friend Matt Patricia and the 0-2 Detroit Lions this Sunday – which also just so happens to be the date on which ya boy Mattes graced the world with his presence 29 years ago, so it’s only right that they’ll be victorious on such an important day.

(Also, I know everyone is all excited about Josh Gordon. Settle down; we’ll get there.)

Before we get into the game preview, here’s a quick look at where, when, and how to watch the game along with the latest lines:

  • Location: Ford Field (Detroit, MI)
  • Kickoff: Sunday, Sept. 23, 8:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: NBC (Check local listings)
  • Odds (via Odds Shark): Patriots: -6.5 (spread)/Patriots: -265 (moneyline)/51.5 (total)

As you can see from the 51.5-point total, which is the fourth-highest total in the league this week, this game figures to be high-scoring. Both teams have a potent offense which overcompensates for a mediocre defense that is susceptible to giving up a lot of yards and points. Basically, if you got fantasy players on either side this week, feel free to go ahead and put pretty much all of them in your starting lineup.

So, who are some of the weapons that Detroit has? Well, they’re found mostly in the receiving corps, and their success all hinges upon the play of much-maligned quarterback Matthew Stafford.

Image result for matt stafford

After an abysmal Week 1 performance, during which he threw FOUR picks in a loss to the New York Jets, people were calling for Stafford’s head (including our very own Red, who has him as his fantasy signal-caller this year). However, I thought it was a bit much. For as much as he turned the ball over during his first few years in the league (four seasons with 15-plus interceptions), he has an 89:37 TD-to-INT ratio over the past four seasons, which includes 2018. He’s also one of only five players to ever throw for over 5,000 yards in a season, and I bet you didn’t know that he was the fastest quarterback ever to reach 20,000 yards, 25,000 yards, AND 30,000 yards on his career. The guy’s also coming off of a 347-yard, three-touchdown, zero-pick performance against San Francisco.

The point is: this dude can sling the rock, and the only reason he gets so much criticism is because he’s yet to win one playoff game in 11 NFL seasons. (I get it, Detroit; you’re hungry.) And with Detroit’s nasty group of receivers, coupled with the fact that the Pats have given up the fifth-most passing yards in the league through two games, Stafford could do some damage on Sunday.

Of the receivers, I expect Golden Tate to have the most success. The game’s most underappreciated slot receiver has 14 catches on a ridiculous 28 targets through two games so far as Stafford’s No. 1 guy. The Lions also have two big boys on the outside in Marvin Jones (6’2″, 198 pounds) and Kenny Golloday (6’4″, 214 pounds), both of whom use their size and unfair athleticism to gain big chunks of yards in a hurry, averaging 13.5 and 15.6 yards per catch, respectively. The Pats are definitely going to give up some real estate through the air this week – especially if either Trey Flowers and/or Patrick Chung, who both haven’t practiced this week due to being in concussion protocol, are ruled out.

Image result for golden tate

Sure, I’m excited about Gordon. But MAN, I really wish those Golden Tate trade rumors weren’t just all talk. This dude can BALL.

Fortunately, they could have success containing Detroit’s very lackluster running game. Right now, the team is using a three-pronged “attack” of Kerryon Johnson, Theo Riddick, and former Patriot LeGarrette Blount.

Riddick has been one of the Lions’ key offensive pieces for the past five seasons as the team’s third-down/pass-catching specialist. While he is not built to be any team’s primary ball-carrier, he does have 234 (!) receptions since 2014, including 14 already this season. He’s going to be targeted and used a lot.

Johnson, a rookie, is by far the most talented back of the bunch from an overall standpoint, but for some reason he has been sharing the load with Blount between the tackles so far. Truthfully, Johnson – who also has eight receptions on the year and is by no means a one-trick pony – should have been given the starting role right out of the gate, and maybe this is the game he finally takes a stranglehold on the role for good. It’s only a matter of time until Blount fades away entirely. Either way, I don’t expect the Lions to kill the Pats on the ground.

Image result for kerryon johnson

Johnson will be a household name soon enough, giving the Lions their first good back since Barry Sanders – and Mattes’s fantasy squad a much-needed boost.

On defense, there’s not much to talk about besides the fact that the Lions are expected to be without stud corner Darius Slay, per Kyle Meinke of MLive, which must be music to Brady’s ears. After a brutal dogfight against the Jags vaunted secondary last week, things won’t be nearly as difficult for the offense on Sunday night. (Especially if Flash Gordon is ready to go!) (UPDATE: Slay did return to Lions practice in a non-contact jersey on Friday, but he is still unlikely to play [h/t Rotoworld].)

Storylines to Keep An Eye On

(What Will We See from Josh Gordon?): This is obviously the biggest storyline heading into the game. Pats Nation is absolutely giddy with excitement over this week’s acquisition of the uber-talented but oft-troubled 27-year-old receiver. He has the skills to make a Randy-Moss-level impact on the team’s offense, or he could easily succumb to past transgressions and fade out in a “Flash.” I’m remaining hopeful, but I’m also not expecting a huge impact from him in Game 1. As we’ve discussed before, the Patriots system has claimed the careers of many former standout pass-catchers in the past, and while Gordon has practiced the past two days, he’s going to need a little more time to get up to speed. He’s also dealing with a minor hamstring issue, so don’t expect him to be truly unleashed until at least next week. If Bill does decide to throw him right into the fire, though, I’d say 4-5 targets, max, isn’t an unreasonable expectation.

Image result for josh gordon patriots

Apparently, Flash is going to be rocking No. 10 as a Patriot.

(So…Maybe Sony Michel is the Guy Now?): After missing basically all summer plus the season opener, Michel was immediately granted 11 touches (12 if you include his kick return) in his debut against the Jags last Sunday. He was even thrown to on two separate occasions. Meanwhile, Rex Burkhead rushed the ball six times and wasn’t targeted once in the passing game. (James White also got eight targets and seven receptions, but that’s always going to happen. He’s basically our Riddick.) Typical. Friggin. Belichick. Some believe it’s because Burkhead was dealing with concussion symptoms earlier in the week and the team was taking it easy with him; I believe, in typical Belichick fashion, he likes to choose which back will be the horse each week depending on the matchup. Until one of them, likely Michel, busts out and locks down the role as top dog, I’m done trying to project anything regarding the team’s group of backs. (My Burkhead for offensive MVP prediction could be in some serious doubt. But hey, at least the rookie finally got on the field!)

(Reunited and It Feels So Goooood): For the 21st time in his Patriots career, Belichick will face off against one of his former assistants, against whom he has a combined 14-6 record. This time it’s former defensive coordinator Matt Patricia, who’s currently suffering through a tough start to his NFL head-coaching career. There’s really not much to be said here, as it’s really only a fluffy storyline being used to try and create some more drama and intrigue. Still, it’s always fun to see if the grasshopper can successfully take down the master…even though he probably won’t.

Image result for belichick patricia

Always remember the good times, boys.

Prediction

The Pats are able to come out and establish the run early on. Detroit’s defense has been absolutely GASHED so far on the ground, giving up 179.5 rushing yards per game, which is good for dead last in the league. (I know it’s only been two games, but the next-worst mark is Oakland with 154. The Lions run D is horrendous.) Brady is also able to move the ball pretty well through the air and puts up over 20 points before the half. Not to be outdone, Stafford also has his way with the Pats defense, but the Pats clock-killing offensive game plan doesn’t give him a ton of opportunities to keep up. In the end, the game will be close and high-scoring, but the Pats will ultimately tame the Lions, 38-28.

Patriots/Jaguars Week 2 Game Preview, Odds, & Things to Watch For

By on • ( 1 Comment )

Image result for patriots jaguars

After a solid performance against the Texans at home in Week 1, the Patriots already have their first tough matchup of the year. This Sunday, they’re set to square off on the road against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who, were it not for a big fourth-quarter Patriots comeback – capped off by a HUGE touchdown from Danny “Playoff” Amendola with 2:48 remaining – would have been last year’s AFC champions.

As always, here’s a quick snapshot of when, where, and how to watch the game along with the latest lines:

  • Location: TIAA Bank Field (Jacksonville, FL)
  • Kickoff: Sunday, Sept. 16, 4:25 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS (Check local listings)
  • Odds (via Odds Shark): Patriots: -2 (spread)/Patriots: -115 (moneyline)/45 (over/under)

Somehow, the Patriots are favored in this one, but BUYER BEWARE. I don’t know if people are still somehow basing their opinion off of old, outdated perceptions, but these ain’t your granddaddy’s Jaguars.

Again, this is a team that was leading 20-10 early on in the fourth quarter against the Pats in last year’s AFC championship, and one that is bringing back pretty much every starter from a truly stifling defense that finished second in both yards allowed and points per game allowed in 2017. They also finished second in both sacks and interceptions to boot. Point being: their D is absolutely lethal, perhaps even “all-time” good. (Yes, they really are that freakin’ good.)

Image result for jalen ramsey aj bouye

Jalen Ramsey (left) and A.J. Bouye (right) form unquestionably the best corner pairing in the game right now.

On the offensive side of things, the Jags are not quite as daunting, but they’re certainly not bereft of talent. Stud running back Leonard Fournette is expected to play, as long as his hamstring, which forced him out of action early on in Week 1, holds up at practice on Friday:

Even though the Pats held him to just 3.2 yards per carry in January, he’s still probably one of the game’s best. Also, backup T.J. Yeldon, one of this week’s hottest fantasy pickups, is no slouch either; he finished the game with almost 70 total yards in relief of Fournette last Sunday, and let’s not forget he averaged 5.2 yards per carry as the team’s backup ball-carrier last year. Both backs can also catch balls out of the backfield, so the Pats will need to watch out for them all over the field on Sunday.

Fortunately, the Jaguars have Blake Bortles and a depleted receiving corps responsible for the other half of the offense. Bortles is perhaps one of the most intriguing players in the entire league; here’s a guy who’s thrown over 20 touchdowns in three straight seasons, including 35 of them in 2015, but one who has also thrown 48 picks over that same time frame and can oftentimes look like a lost Pop Warner player on the field.

Image result for blake bortles meme

To be fair, though, Bortles did come on strong toward the end of last season, and he played very well in the AFC championship (23/36, 293 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 98.5 RTG). You could do a lot worse than him at quarterback, and if you’re not careful he can flame you. However, after letting Allen Hurns walk this offseason and losing Marquis Lee for the year due to injury, the Jags receiving corps is still trying to flesh itself out. Besides Keelan Cole – who I’m expecting a big year from and who truly might’ve been one of the best receivers in the NFL over the last five or so weeks of 2017 – it’s a lot of young, highly-drafted guys (Dede Westbrook, D.J. Chark) or extremely overrated veterans (Donte Moncrief, Austin Sefarian-Jenkins) to choose from for Blakey Boy.

Stephon Gilmore and the rest of the secondary should be able to keep Bortles and the receivers at bay in this one, but Fournette and Yeldon could do some work against a Pats defense that gave up the second most receiving yards out of the opposing backfield last season. The Patriots also allowed the Texans to rush for over five yards per carry as a team last week – even when taking Deshaun Watson out of the picture and only accounting for their running backs – so the team could struggle to stop the ground game this week.

Though he was sacked three times, Brady played great against the Jags in January (26/38, 290 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INT, 108.4 RTG), but with much less to work with in terms of talent around him, things could be a bit more difficult this time around. Jalen Ramsey should be able to lock down Hogan (if, of course, he’s not on Gronk instead) and A.J. Bouye should be able to take care of whoever else. (Yeah, I know how good Phillip Dorsett looked last week, but don’t expect a repeat performance in Jacksonville.) Rex Burkhead and James White will likely be relied upon heavily again down in the Sunshine State as well.

Storylines to Keep an Eye On

(Can Trent Brown and the Boys Up Front Keep it Up?): Brown passed his first test in a Patriots uniform last week against a strong Texans pass-rush, but Houston’s front pales in comparison to the group the Jags possess. From monster-man Calais Campbell (12.5 sacks in 2017) to guys like Dante Fowler, Yannick Ngakoue, and Malik Jackson, Brown and the rest of the O-line are going to have their hands full once again.

(Will We See Sony Michel?/Running Back Rotation): After missing Week 1 while still recovering from a knee injury, rookie Sony Michel has been participating in positional drills once again at practice this week. While there’s been no real indication from anyone of note as to whether or not he’ll play this Sunday, Kevin Duffy of the Boston Herald points out that the rookie is hopeful:

“I’m doing all I can do to prepare,” Michel said in his first interview since suffering the knee injury. “Whatever coach’s plan is, I don’t know what his plan is, but my mindset is prepare as if I’m playing.”

After losing Jeremy Hill for the season this week to an ACL tear, Michel would certainly be a welcomed presence. I am unsure if the team wants the rookie to begin his NFL life against such a tough defense, but then again Bill is certainly not averse to throwing people right into the fire. If not, then newly signed Kenjon Barner might get a little more run than expected. Kenneth Farrow (Melvin Gordon’s backup with the then-San Diego Chargers in 2016) or preseason standout Ralph Webb could also get promoted from the practice squad. Otherwise, Burkhead and White are both going to be in for a long afternoon.

Image result for sony michel patriots

Come ahhhn, Sony. We’re getting anxious over here.

Prediction

The Patriots come out trying to establish the run and are not so successful. With Hogan and Gronk being locked down by the Jags secondary, this ultimately causes Brady to have to force balls to the likes of Dorsett and Cordarrelle Patterson, and that doesn’t go so well. Meanwhile, Bortles is able to move the ball a little better than expected against the Pats defense, to the tune of 300 yards and two scores. Brady, as he always does, finds a way to finally punch one or two in later in the game. Unfortunately, though, the Jags win out in the end 20-14.

BREAKING: Sony Michel Could Miss Start of Regular Season

By on • ( 1 Comment )

Image result for sony michel

As relayed by Rotoworld around midday on Thursday, The Athletic’s Jeff Howe reported that the “sense” around Pats camp right now is that rookie Sony Michel, who just returned to the practice field this week after missing most of the summer with a “minor” knee issue, isn’t as likely to be ready for the start of the regular season as Rex Burkhead, another Pats running back who is supposedly recovering from a mysterious knee injury.

COOL. At this point, with pretty much the entire offense being injured or in injury purgatory, I think I might be able to persuade Bill and Josh to at least bring me in for a workout. Right??!! (All 5’7″, 150 pounds of me, with a solid 6.0-plus-second 40-time to boot. WATCH OUT.)

But no in all seriousness, this isn’t good.

First and foremost, while I’ll admit that I was pretty amped when we initially took Michel this past May, I presented his 2018 stat projections with cautious optimism (which now might not even be cautious enough) during my initial Pats running back preview at the end of July.

My reasoning: Not only do the Pats already have a solid stable of backs, each of whom was already set to get their fair share of touches in 2018, but the team also knew full well about his deteriorating knee issues, which date back to high school, before drafting him in the first round. Lo and behold, here we go again.

So what does this mean?

It means that Rex Burkhead better friggin’ be healthy. It also means my boy James White could get more burn, and either Jeremy Hill or Mike Gillislee – whichever of the two win the final spot in the rotation – are going to need to step up as well. (It also means you should probably knock Michel down a few pegs on your fantasy draft board.)

As I said in my Patriots fantasy preview last week – another article in which I expressed concern with Michel – knee issues do not just go away, especially chronic ones that don’t result from a one-off injury. So while he certainly could be ready to play again at some point within the next month, it’s probably not likely; also, even if he is, you know we’ll eventually be right back in this boat once again in the not so distant future.

I hope I’m wrong, Pats Nation, and I’m hoping for the best. But we’re not off to a good start here, and there’s a chance it could get even worse.

Eric Decker Announces Retirement. Who is Going to Catch Passes for the Patriots?

By on • ( Leave a comment )

Okay, now I’m officially nervous. Eric Decker announced his retirement last night and posted the following message on Instagram.

All training camp and preseason I’ve been saying don’t worry about the receiver depth and that the Patriots will figure out a way to patch everything together for the first month until Julian Edelman returns. Then Malcolm Mitchell got cut. Then Jordan Matthews got cut. Then Kenny Britt got cut. Then Eric Decker retired.

Shit.

People obviously weren’t as high on Decker as I was, but I viewed him as a proven veteran who could catch the ball, no more no less. He definitely struggled in his short stint with the Patriots though as he was dropping lots of passes.

I still think Decker would have been able to right the ship. Maybe he’s not blowing by guys off the line anymore, but you don’t just lose the ability to catch the ball overnight. And for a guy that had four 80+ catch seasons I would have given him the benefit of the doubt. But maybe the Pats saw the writing on the wall. With all the drops it looked like Decker may have been on the outside looking in on Brady’s circle of trust. Once that happens its hard to get back in.

Former players were saying that Decker was thinking too much as he was trying to digest the Patriots playbook and was thinking more about where he was supposed to be rather than just catching the ball. Well it would seem like Belichick was over it and was going to cut Decker, but gave him the option to “go out on his own terms” and retire instead, which is exactly what Decker did.

Well now the Patriots receiving corps looks like this:

  • Chris Hogan
  • Phillip Dorsett
  • Cordarrelle Patterson
  • Braxton Berrios
  • Devin Lucien
  • Riley McCarron
  • Paul Turner (aka Paul Turner the IT Guy, or “something called Paul Turner” as Big Jim Murray nicknamed him)
  • Matthew Slater

That is not exactly confidence inspiring. And no, bringing in Dez Bryant is not the solution here, but hell if I know what that answer is.

Not all these guys are even a lock to make the roster and Doug Kyed over at NESN thinks the Pats might only keep 4 receivers total, which includes special teams captain Matthew Slater, and just try to stay above water until Edelman returns from suspension.

I can’t say I’m okay with the Pats slotting in Matthew Slater as the No. 4 WR as we’ve all seen what Slater can(not) do as a pure receiver.

The Pats may just lean on the deep RB group that they have, but even half of those guys are dealing with injuries. Rex Burkhead has missed some time with a tear in his knee, although reports have said he’ll be able to play through it. First round pick Sony Michel remains sidelined with his own knee injury too. Suddenly the RB depth isn’t what it appeared to be a few weeks ago.

Belichick and co. seem to like what they have at the TE position with Rob Gronkowski, Dwayne Allen, and Jacob Hollister has made headlines this preseason for his play. So the Madden expert that I am would not be surprised to see a lot of James White screens and 2 and 3TE sets to start the season for the Patriots.

I honestly doubt the Pats bring in anyone from the FA scrap heap at this point in the season. They’re more likely to see who may be available on the trade block as they did last year with Phillip Dorsett. The hot rumor this past week has the Patriots eyeing Denver’s Demaryius Targaryen, er, Thomas. I would be fine with that if the price is right, plus he’s a big dude at 6’3″, but at $8.5M I can’t see Belichick taking that on as is.

We’ll see what the Patriots do, but either way its time to start battening down the hatches as the regular season kicks off Sunday, Sept. 9th at 1 pm.