Recap: We hope Kevin Durant is okay and his over prop wins will be waiting when he gets back.
First Pick: 7:10 PM Sixers -2.5 1st quarter vs Hornets (-117)
The Logic: This is the third game in four nights for the Hornets. Yes, I know they played Philly on Saturday, but Philly ran them amuck in the first quarter and I’d expect another fast start given how the Sixers are playing right now.
Second Pick: 10:10 PM De’Aaron Fox O22.5 points vs Warriors (-134)
Fact #1: Fox has hit this mark in two of his last three and four and three of four overall.
Fact #2: Now that Chef Curry is back (62 points last night), he’ll be expending a lot of energy on offense to continue showing everyone that he takes the slander personally.
Fact #3: Most importantly, the Warriors are allowing the second-most points per game to the PG position at 31.1.
Third Pick: 8:10 PMDonte DiVincenzo O11.5 points vs Pistons (+100)
Fact #1: The Pistons allow an average of 27.1 points per contest to the 2-guard position this season.
Fact #2: Donte has 12+ points in four of six games this season. Said another way, he has hit this number in games where his team wasn’t involved in a blowout.
Recap: Richaun Holmes made us sweat to get to 9 rebs, but missed a couple of acrobatic layups late in the fourth quarter, so we missed that over by the hook.
First pick: Jaylen Brown O22.5 pts vs DET (-110) – winner
Fact #1: He has totaled 23+ points in four of six games, including 25 on New Year’s Day against these same Pistons.
Fact #2: Detroit allows 25.4 points per game to the 2-guard position, which I would expect Brown to occupy again if Teague comes off the bench rather than starting.
Second pick: Joe Harris O12.5 pts vs WAS (-120)
Fact #1: Harris has 13+ pts in three of his last four
Fact #2: The Wizards give up an average of 26.2 points to the 2-guard position this season
Fact #3: Assuming Russ takes Kyrie, that potential means Harris gets to run Beal around screens all night. We like!
Third pick: Kevin Durant O27.5 pts vs WAS (-120)
Fact #1: Durant has 28+ points four of his five games this season, so I’m going to keep playing this until it doesn’t hit.
Recap: I, like many, thought the Eagles were going to have their will on offense against the Cowboys shaky defense. Late Spoiler: That didn’t happen.
As I said in the title, this slate of games is weird because while seeding and playoff spots are up for grabs, so many notable players are out today:
1/3 Players out Sunday include Tyreek Hill, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Sammy Watkins, Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry, Joey Bosa, Dalvin Cook, Kenny Golladay, Damien Harris, Frank Gore, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Cole Beasley, DJ Chark, James Robinson, Julio Jones, Devin White, Shaq Barrett.
And Schefter had two more tweets of players out for Sunday!
First Pick: Calvin Ridley O87.5 receiving yards vs TB (-124)
Fact #1: Ridley has four straight games with 100+ receiving yards, including a matchup two weeks ago against the Bucs (14 targets, 10 catches, 163 yards, TD
Fact #2: Ridley is 137 receiving yards behind Stefon Diggs for the receiving title and the Bills will reportedly be doing what’s best for their “team and their players.” So yes, I’m saying there’s a chance…
Fact #3: The Bucs defense has allowed four different receivers to eclipse 88 rec yards over their last five games. In fact, the lowest of those four tallies is 130 yards by Robert Woods.
Second Pick: Kirk Cousins O22.5 completions (-112) vs DET
Fact #1: Cousins has eclipsed 23+ completions in five straight contests
Fact #2: You may look at the first matchup from Week 9 and have some questions about why Cousins only had 13 completions. The reason is Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison combined for 275 yards and 2 scores on 34 carries.
Fact #3: The only real fear is a trilogy of poor defense from the Lions in this one, which is what caused both Ryan Tannehill (21 comps, 273 yds, 3 TD) and Tom Brady (22 comps, 348 yds, 4 TD) to largely sit out the second half of their games.
So based on fact #3, you should also play Kirk Cousins O2.5 pass TDs (+120)
That is what we call a segue “in the biz”
Fact #1: The Lions defense has allowed a whopping 17 pass TDs over the last five weeks (most in NFL) with 0 INT!
Which leads us to the next segue…
Fourth pick is Vikings Team Total O28.5 points (-107)
Fact #1: The Lions have allowed 30+ in five straight contests.
Fifth Pick is Mike Glennon O20.5 completions vs IND (+100)
Fact #1: The Colts have allowed an average of 27.4 completions to QBs over the last five weeks
Fact #2: The only way Mike Glennon doesn’t hit 21 completions is him being benched for Minshew, which better not happen.
Recap: We can only go up from here. Donte DiVincenzo had 11 points at the half and because the Bucks were thrashing the Bulls, he had no reason to take another shot. The Clippers looked like they were on the second end of a back-to-back and the Celtics forgot to bring their scoring prowess from the Memphis game into Detroit. Lastly, Gordon Hayward was well on his way to reaching 19, but they got the doors blown off them and the starters were pulled.
First and second Picks: Richaun Holmes O11.5 Pts (-141) and O8.5 Reb(-106)vs HOU
Fact #1: Holmes got busy in this first half of this 2-game series, posting 22 points and 13 rebounds on Christmas Eve.
Fact #2: Holmes has 20+ points in two straight contests.
Fact #3: Holmes has secured 9+ rebounds in four of five games this season.
Fact #4: The Rockets are 27th in rebounds per game.
With so many tasty matchups on the slate, I felt compelled to sample a lot of the action.
Thursday: 1-2 (-1.17 units)
Season: 5-9 (-4.75 units)
Recap: JaVale McGee was unleashed to the tune of 1-for-9 shooting in the first quarter — that’s all you need to know about how Cavs +2.5 1st quarter went. Darius Garland came through on his point total, while I underestimated how not ready the Thunder are with their current roster.
First Pick: Hawks Team Total O119.5 vs BKN (-117)
Fact #1: The first meeting on Wednesday saw these two teams combine for 286, which went well over the closing O/U of 240.5.
Fact #2: The Hawks have eclipsed 120 points in every game following their season-opening total of 117.
Fact #3: Even with Brooklyn adjustments to the slip screens, the pace of this game should be very Big 12 football-like again.
Second Pick: Kevin Durant O27.5 points vs ATL (-110)
Fact #1: Durant has reached 28+ points three of his four games this season, including 33 against the Hawks on Wednesday.
Third Pick: Celtics -5 1st Half spread vs DET
Fact #1: Boston is 5-0 ATS in the first half this season, while Detroit is 2-2
Fact #2: Although it’s not in-his-prime Blake Griffin, he’s still a solid contributor, but he be out tonight as he continues to go through concussion protocol.
Fourth Pick: Clippers -1.5 1st Half spread vs UTA(-117)
Fact #1: The Clippers are 4-1 ATS in the first half this season compared to the Jazz who are 2-2
Fact #2: The lone loss ATS in the first half was that drubbing at the hands of the Mavs when Kawhi didn’t play
Fact #3: The Jazz played last night — granted at home — while the Clippers were resting in Utah. If PG13 and The Claw are playing, the Clippers should wear them down early.
Fifth Pick: Gordon Hayward O.18.5 points vs MEM (+101)
Fact #1: If you believe in trends like I do, then you’ll appreciate that Hayward’s point totals have been the following through four games: 28 — 12 — 28 — 11… which should the trend continue, indicates a good game on the horizon.
Fact #2: But let’s support that “outlandish claim” with supporting evidence: The Grizzlies are allowing a league-high 32.8 points per contest to the small forward position early on this season, including a 42-point thrashing at the hands Jaylen Brown just the other day.
Sixth and Seventh Picks: Donte DiVincenzo O11.5 points (-110) and O1.5 Made 3Pters (-134) vs CHI
Fact #1: DiVincenzo has hit at least three 3’s in four of five games and the fifth game featured two makes.
Fact #2: He has also scored 13+ points in four of five contests with the outlier game being a 10-point effort in Milwaukee’s uncharacteristic blowout at the hands of the Knicks (same game with only two made 3s.
Fact #3: The Bulls are allowing an average of 26 points per game to the 2-guard position early on this season.
*Me speaking to my grandchildren in 2060*: You know everybody, there was a time, believe it or not, when it was perfectly acceptable to sit in your living room BY YOURSELF and get hammered, so long as there was a web cam on.
I’m of course already dating/aging myself as I don’t think anyone says “web cam” anymore. The need, for the most part, of an external device that provides you with video capability for a meeting/chat is gone. But my point still stands. From the work place to social lives, 2020 was the year of the virtual meeting.
To start, the introduction of quarantine was a huge test of “how much does your company fucking suck?” If you’re like me and have friends whose job satisfaction ranges from apathetic to “I hope I get t-boned on the ride in,” it was fascinating to watch which companies did what. Most did the right thing and just shut down the offices, which for some was a gigantic 180 from their normal stance on working from home. Some tried to avoid that drastic of an action and went to a reduced office presence with different people in on different days. I had one friend whose company just happened to have a half-filled office lying around an hour away and they sent some folk to work there for awhile. No big deal, just that added gas money and commuting time with no kind of stipend for it. For those of us who got to go full remote however, it was mostly for the first time. Do you put on pants? Do you gel your hair? Can you listen to ESPN in the background? So many questions with so little to guide us. I was in a particularly odd position as I actually started my job the first day of Charlie Baker’s lockdown here in MA. Never met a coworker in person, never got to see the office. To make matters even stranger for folks like me, companies have different policies on whether or not to even turn on the damn webcam. So I ended working with a string of mystery men and women like I’m a Charlie’s fucking Angel or something. Bizarre man.
The social scene was a different monster entirely. What happens when such a well oiled machine completely breaks down? When you want to meet up with your friends you go to their house or a bar, if you just are looking for some companionship for the night, the latter of the two. Those simple mechanisms disappeared, literally overnight on March 22nd. Now what? Our generation is arguably the most social yet and suddenly we were barred from being just that. Then video chatting sprang up to save the day. It was always there, but it received little use outside of long distance relationships hell bent on failing or for that one friend that moved to Boulder because “they liked the energy more.” Now Zoom, Google chat, etc. were the only way to share a beverage and a chat with your pals. It was weird at first. I think everyone can admit that. And then it just kind of became normal. Hell, an entire app, House Party, emerged just to facilitate conversations and games between friends who were locked down. Even if we couldn’t be together, we still gonna have a few brewskis, shit talk each other, maybe gossip a little, and if you’re anything like my friends, have food delivered mid fucking conversation. It added such a bizarre layer of disconnect that has been at once sad and entertaining.
On the social end, the video chats dried up back when things started opening up again, only to reappear over the past month or so amid a surge in cases. Who knows if this will remain a thing moving forward when folks just straight up don’t want to leave their houses or when you gather with friends and want to call that one friend who moved to Oregon to “be more with nature” (they work at a coffee shop). Who knows. All I know is what once would have been viewed as halfway to being a page out of a virtual version of “Eyes Wide Shut” is now the way friends stay in touch. And that aint a bad thing.
Recap: See, what had happened was no one can predict injuries, let alone Stafford suffering an ankle injury early in the first quarter that would naturally sink his completions prop, while also ensuring that Leonard Fournette would only have to play the first half because the Bucs were on fire. We wish Matthew a speedy recovery.
But it’s a new day! Yes, it is!
The First Pick: Miles Sanders O80.5 rushing yards vs DAL (-112)
Fact #1: The Cowboys have allowed 146.2 rushing yards per game over the last 5 weeks, which is the 2nd-most yards allowed over that span.
Fact #2: The Cowboys have allowed 3 RBs (Dalvin Cook, Antonio Gibson and Gus Edwards) to each eclipse 100 yards on the ground.
Fact #3: Miles did eclipse 81 rush yards against the Saints (115), so we know he can do this with Hurts being more mobile than Wentz.
Second Pick: D.K. Metcalf U70.5 receiving yards vs LAR (-112)
Fact #1: Jalen Ramsey is on the other side of the ball.
Fact #2: The last time Ramsey was on the other side of the ball, Metcalf was held to 4 targets and 2 catches for 28 yards.
Fact #3: Metcalf has posted totals of 61 (vs NYJ) and 43 (at WFT) over the past two weeks.
Third Pick: Jalen Hurts O1.5 passing TDs vs DAL (+100)
Fact #1: The only QBs not to pass for at least 2 scores against Dallas this season are Jared Goff (Week 1), Daniel Jones (Week 5), Alex Smith (Week 12) and Brandon Allen (Week 14). Yes, that means Wentz threw 2 scores on Dallas in the first meeting!
Fact #2: Hurts is coming off a 3-pass TD game against Arizona and this game could very much mirror that one for him.
Fourth Pick: Justin Herbert O24.5 completions vs DEN (-112)
Fact #1: In the first matchup, he totaled 29 back in Week 8, albeit with Keenan Allen in the lineup.
Fact #2: Mahomes (25), Bridgewater (30) and Josh Allen (28) have each completed 25+ passes on Denver’s defenses over the last 3 weeks.
Fact #3: Herbert has completed 25+ passes in three of his last 4 games.
Bonus: With many receivers down in this Browns-Jets game, I have to put a sprinkle on fellow Owl Harrison Bryant to score a TD (+300)
NBA on ESPN: “And up next, we got a good one for you as the COVID vaccine looks to save the season for humans here in 2020. We’ll find out next, in what is shaping up to be a huuuge game for the human race as they look to end their losing streak to the formidable COVID-19 virus. pic.twitter.com/4tPyP6bHom
Just shut down your laptops and call it a wrap because the internet has peaked for the day. It’s rare to make me laugh out loud before I even finish my morning coffee, but this COVID vaccine perp walk getting the NBA on ESPN intro treatment did just that.
Earlier today, about four hours ago now, Dave Chappelle posted an 18+ minute IGTV regarding above all else, how business,in this case show business, and basic empathy often live in parallel with one another, failing to intersect or commingle in order to form a world that would just be more enjoyable to live in. The target of Chappelle’s monologue was that Netflix, without his permission and without paying him, had begun streaming Chappelle Show. And he was none too pleased that his now partner in comedy gold was making money hand over fist when he wasn’t seeing a dime.
As most of us know, and maybe some are too young to remember, Comedy Central and its parent Viacom were essentially robber barons when it came to Chappelle and his iconic Chappelle’s Show. They gave him a lowball deal with no back end money and when he decided, feeling artistically strangled, that he no longer wanted to make the show, they reaped the syndication money without giving the show’s legendary creator a dime. No shit he lost it for a bit there (if he even did at all). To make matters worse, Chappelle revealed, was the fact that the show would also be shown on HBOMax, whose parent HBO had told him they “didn’t need” him when pitching the same show 20 years ago. Ouch.
As passionate as Chappelle was, however, in his segment, titled “Unforgiven”, he was also agreeable. The vindictiveness wasn’t quite as striking. He stated there and then that Netflix had understood and sympathized with his position, that it made sense that he was upset about not getting paid his due, and that they’d take the show down. Just like that. He then addressed Comedy Central and Viacom, and whatever faceless suits runs them at this point. He stated he wanted to make things right. He didn’t want the show disappearing forever, necessarily, he just wanted to get paid. He wanted to be acknowledged, at last.
He then addressed the audience. And this is where the last five years or so comes into play. If you follow comedy and any number of podcasts put on by comedians, you know that the podcast/youtube game has permanently changed comedy (and music as well but lets stick to the hahas for now). The gatekeepers, such as Comedy Central, no longer hold the keys. Comedy is, essentially, now free to be direct to consumer. You can ejoy a comedians podcast, watch some of their actual material on youtube, like that too, and then buy their tickets and merch. It’s a la carte comedic entertainment, We get to pick what we like. Needless to say the machine that is the entertainment industry hates it. They’re powerless now. And Chappelle knows it. He pleaded with his “real bosses,” that audience, to not watch Chappelle’s Show until he is paid. Boycott him, he asked them. Until he saw his due.
Dave Chappelle has done his part, as he recalled at the beginning of “Unforgiven”, since he was 14 years old. Netflix has now done its part. They’ll stand united with the greatest comedic talent of his lifetime. Shoulder to shoulder with a master of his craft until he gets his due. And now, for better or for worse, it’s on us. 2020 man. What a fuckin year.
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The 300s 