Recap the Hits: Metcalf went way under vs the Cards, Herbert went well over vs the Jets and the Chiefs needed all 60 minutes to score 4 TDs, but we got there.
Recap the Misses: Julio Jones’s nagging hamstring resurfaced and despite having 30ish rushing yards and a TD in the first quarter, Damien Harris did not draw many more touches after that against Houston.
The Pick: Kirk Cousins O227.5 passing yards vs CAR (-112)
Fact #1: Cousins has passed for 290+ yards in two straight games
Fact #2: The Panthers have allowed the 4th-most passing yards over the last 5 weeks (1,459) — an average of 291.8 per game
Fact #3: Yes, there is no Adam Thielen today, which conventional wisdom suggests leads to the Vikings selling out to stop Dalvin Cook. Justin Jefferson would appreciate the focus not being on him.
Wayne Gallman O56.5 rushing yards vs CIN (-130)
Fact #1: The Bengals defense is allowing 122.5 rushing yards per game to RBs over its last four games
Fact #2: Gallman’s rushing attempts have gone up each of the past 4 games: 10, 12, 14 and 18.
Fact #3: Down Joe Burrow and Joe Mixon on offense, this is a game the Giants should be able to dictate from the beginning, meaning there should be lots of running
Fun Fact: Gallman has a rushing TD in 4 straight (5 in span). I don’t hate his +105 anytime TD prop as a bonus play.
Daniel Jones O1.5 passing TDs vs CIN (-112)
Fact #1: The Bengals have allowed 12 TD passes to QBs over their last 4 games
Fact #2: 6 of the last 7 QBs the Bengals have faced have thrown for at least 2 scores
Fact: #3: Jones has thrown for 2 scores in 2 of his last 4 games
TNF Recap: If you had D.K. Metcalf going in PPR fantasy, he gave you a respectable, 3-46-1, and I’m happy for you. Thankfully, those 46 yards fell well under his prop total of 79.5 receiving yards. As Hannah Montana would say, “you get the best of both worlds.”
The pick: Justin Herbert O277.5 passing yards vs NYJ(-118)
Fact #1: Herbert got a haircut this week, which means the man means business this week. I only get haircuts ahead of big events.
Fact #2: The Jets have allowed an average of 303.5 passing yards over the past 4 games, which includes performances from Josh Allen (307), Patrick Mahomes (416) and Cam Newton (274).
Fact #3: Herbert has totaled 278 or more passing yards in three of his last four outings (347 vs JAX, 278 at DEN, 326 vs LVR and 187 at MIA).
Julio Jones O80.5 receiving yards vs NO (-125)
Fact #1: Saints top CB Marshon Lattimore (abdominal) is out today. In 4 career games vs ATL, he has allowed 14 out of 24 targets passes in his direction to be completed (58.3%), 0 TD.
Fact # 2: Calvin Ridley (foot) returns to action, which should prevent the Saints defense from trying to zone in more on Julio.
Fact #3: Julio has eclipsed 81 or more receiving yards in three of his last four outings (137 at MIN, 97 vs DET, 137 at CAR and 54 vs DEN).
Chiefs Team Total O3.5 Touchdowns vs LVR (-121)
Fact #1: KC is averaging 34.3 points per game during their 4-game win streak.
“But James, why isn’t their win streak at 5 games?”
Because they lost 40-32 at home to the Raiders in Week 5 — their only blemish on the season. The Raiders were reportedly so impressed (and shocked) by their victory that they took a victory lap around Arrowhead, proving that there is no such thing as “act like you’ve been there before.”
Fact #2: MVP front-runner Patrick Mahomes has 10 total TD (9 pass) over the last eight quarters.
Fact #3: In games that don’t feature gross weather conditions aka the Week 8 game vs Cleveland (16-6 final), the Raiders defense is allowing an average of 31 points on the road.
Damien Harris O63.5 rushing yards vs HOU (-167)
Full disclosure: I hate talking about any props that are juiced more than -130, but this feels like a slam dunk. Also, DraftKings didn’t have Mike Davis rushing props available.
Fact #1:Sony Michel is inactive.
Fact #2:The Texans have allowed 683 rushing yards over the last five weeks — the most in the NFL over that span — and they’ve only d four games over that span.
Fact #3: Harris’s rushing totals the last 3 games: 102 at BUF, 71 at NYJ and 121 vs BAL
Let’s summarize what happened last week real quick.
Lone positive: Nick Chubb broke all gamblers hearts by running out of bounds and not scoring against the Texans, but for your boy, that long run cashed the over on his rushing yards prop.
Negatives: Jared Goff decided to continue to feed Josh Reynolds as much as he did Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods, which meant we narrowly missed our reception totals for both players.
But like Hannah Montana and Miley Cyrus say:
“Everybody makes mistakes Everybody has those days (oh yeah) Everybody knows what I’m talkin’ ’bout Everybody gets that way (that’s right)”
And with that we’re onto Week 11 : Belichick voice
The pick: D.K. Metcalf Under 79.5 receiving yards
Unless there are major snowfalls or torrential downpours, I loathe unders because what’s fun about rooting for no points?! But tonight will be football at its best because we get Metcalf vs Patrick Peterson (again).
Flashback: Week 7 featured a classic that resulted in a 37-34 OT win for the Cardinals.
Fact #1: In that high-scoring affair, Metcalf was limited to 5 targets, 2 catches, 23 yards — all season lows.
Fact #2: According to NextGenStats, Peterson shadowed Metcalf on 42 of his 49 routes during that game. Metcalf recorded 1 catch for six yards on four targets with Peterson on him.
Fact #3: In 3 career meetings vs ARI, Metcalf has posted a combined total of 10 targets, 3 catches and 29 yards.
Fact #4: Metcalf has been held below 30 yards in two of his last four games (Other game: Jalen Ramsey).
This past Sunday’s impressive, unforeseen victory over the vaunted Baltimore Ravens saw the New England Patriots play two different quarterbacks.
The first was starting quarterback Cameron Newton. Newton had a quite solid game, running and throwing the ball well, controlling the pace of the game, and being the emotional leader he has been for the offense the whole year. A fantastic performance.
The other man was Jakobi Meyers. Meyer’s efforts drew many an eye, were heaped with praise, and propelled the Pats to victory. Only one question remains: is he elite? Let’s dive in, using the normal standards applied to such lauded quarterback play.
Jakobi Meyers throws a dime to Rex Burkhead for a 24-yard TD. #Patriots pulling out the trickery tonight.
On paper, Meyers had an all-time game at quarterback. First of all, his completion percentage was 100%. You know how many quarterbacks have a 100% completion percentage? None (I’m guessing). He was brutally efficient with the football. Implied in this stat, of course, lies also the fact that he threw no interceptions. Say what you want about young Jakobi Meyers but he does not turn the ball over.
But what about points, you ask? Surely I will shy away from whether or not Meyers was able to put points on the board. Alas, I shall not. Jakobi Meyers also has a perfect rate of passes thrown compared to touchdowns thrown. Imagine that? On the one pass he threw, the Patriots also scored. That is literal football alchemy. An uncanny ability to put up 6.
Arm Strength
This, for me, is the easiest non-statistical category to discuss as it is the most purely measurable, all things considered. Meyers threw the ball almost (always; on his one pass) from the near side of the field, He did so almost (completely) exclusively off his back foot, as he was facing tremendous pressure from a rabid Ravens defense. He then heaved the ball almost THIRTY (24 plus a few into the end zone) yards down and ACROSS the field to an awaiting Rex Burkhead. I mean, how many passes in the NFL REALLY travel more than 30 yards in the air? Not too many. Jakobi has a hose.
Accuracy
Despite the above circumstances he was facing, Meyers delivered a ball Burkhead and only Burkhead and absolutely Burkhead could get his hands on. If he put any less loft on it the defender bearing down on him could have possibly leaped up and swatted it down before it ever reached the trenches. A lower trajectory could have also given the linebacker covering Burkhead, Patrick Queen, a chance at breaking the play up. Instead, Meyers dropped a can of corn directly down into Burkhead’s bread basket, allowing him to secure the ball and tumble safely to the turf. Perfect.
Reads
It’s 20/20. All of the talent in the world is not going to get a QB in the NFL anywhere if he can’t read defenses/coverages. That isn’t a problem Jakobi Meyers, just ask the man he may have (probs not) supplanted in Cameron Newton. Meyers was facing extreme pressure. He possibly didn’t have the time to get it to Burkhead. The problem? Well, according to Cam, Meyers read that his checkdown, Newton actually, had been immediately picked up by a defender in coverage and just didn’t have the shake and bake in him to get loose. So not only was the toss to Burkhead an incredible one, but it was the product of an excellent read and a ballsy decision. Can’t just throw it away and ruin that perfect completion percentage.
Intangibles
Here is a list of shit Jakobi Meyers does better than other notable QBs -Doesn’t catch quasi-STDs at prom at age 20 (Sam Darnold) -Has all his appendages (Dak Prescott, Alex Smith) -Does not have a unibrow (Joe Flacco, Anthony Davis**not a QB but Jesus man) -Pays for seafood (Jameis Winston) -Intact chest cavity (Drew Brees) -Not an old (Tampa QB) -Has not been forced into retirement (Entire Manning family) -Not given his job “just for his looks” (Jimmy G) -Flexibility of not having 17 kids (Philip Rivers) -Career not ended in high school by a combination of systematic sports medicine malpractice and devastating injury (Lance Harbor)
Conclusion
Listen. Listen. When I set out to write this blog (on Monday) I didn’t know how it was going to end up. I was just a man with a keyboard and some game film to watch, albeit in my head. But I broke things down to the sum of their parts. I considered the greats of ours and past generations. I thought of Drew Bledsoe and how he now just owns vineyards, which was wicked off topic but something I pondered about nonetheless. And I have to say it. Between efficiency, arm talent, and the excellence of that thing between his ears, Jakobi Meyers man. He might be…..
Patriots CB JC Jackson, who leads the NFL with 6 INTs and has started four games, was left off the Pro Bowl voting list. According to a league spokesman, the Patriots left him off the list. It’s up to the teams. Jackson is scheduled to be a restricted free agent this offseason.
This is the kind of small, petty stuff that won’t fly when the Patriots are going 9-7 without Tom Brady. It’s one thing for a player to suck it up and ignore chasing accolades when you’re going to the AFC Championship eight years in a row. But when that gravy train leaves town, intentionally hurting players’ chances of individual accolades just comes off as petty. If I’m JC Jackson I am BULLSHIT this morning. There is absolutely zero reason for the Patriots to do this other than wanting to keep “Pro Bowler” off of Jackson’s resume when it comes time to negotiate a new contract this offseason. It’s not like he was just the low man on the totem pole as a young player either, there are legitimately extra spots for the Patriots to add cornerbacks to the ballot.
In addition, the NFL spokesman said that teams are allowed to put more than two cornerbacks from their team on the Pro Bowl ballot. This is in recognition of the high amount of nickel defense many teams play.
This is the kind of move that could very easily have a player say “you know what to hell with this place I’m out” and I wouldn’t blame him.
Believe me I don’t want players that are only it for themselves and the personal achievements, but this is just a player getting recognized for his production. Jackson has been arguably your best player this season when you’ve needed him more than ever with Stephon Gilmore hurt.
It just seems penny wise pound foolish to not let Jackson get a little bit of shine. Especially when it’s a player YOU signed as an undrafted free agent and YOU developed who is showing flashes of becoming a stud cornerstone player at 25-years-old. That would be a huge win for Belichick’s recent draft record, which we’ve absolutely hammered here. Jackson has an INT in five straight games and leads the league with six picks. Yea, lets needlessly tweak that guy.
It felt like a possible 4-0 week was in the cards as soon as D.J. Chark caught a 70+ yd TD pass in the opening minute of last Sunday’s contest against Houston. But Sterling Shepard wasn’t able to get the yardage total we needed, despite logging six catches.
Let’s talk about tonight: Colts at Titans
Philip Rivers O23.5 pass completions(-134)
“But why, James?!”
Fact 1: Tennessee’s pass defense has not been good over the last 5 weeks:
Passing yards allowed 1,472 4th-most
Pass TDs allowed 12 T-2nd most
Completions allowed 151 Most
To quote the kids, “That’s it; that’s the (only) fact.”
With that said, Philip Rivers has completed O23.5 passes in two of his last three with those totals being 29, 23, and 25, respectively. The Titans boast the league’s 7th-highest scoring offense this season, which lends itself to believe the Colts will need to pass a lot in this one, especially given their RBBC approach.
Bonus, just for fun: Corey Davis anytime TD (+175)
I’ll be back Sunday morning to hit you with some gems for the afternoon slate.
Patriots (2-5) vs Jets (0-8) MetLife Stadium Kickoff: 8:15 pm
I spent more time than I care to admit this morning looking for the old Keyshawn Johnson “Key Matchups” SportsCenter commercial, but it’s nowhere to be found. For a network that has made feature film length highlight shows of nothing but SportsCenter commercials to have one of the best examples completely scrubbed from the internet is odd, but I digress.
Patriots Inactives (Stephon Gilmore, N’Keal Harry, Ja’Whaun Bentley, Lawrence Guy, JJ Taylor) via PatsPulpit
The Patriots also have more than a dozen players listed as Questionable heading into Monday night including Ryan Izzo, who if you’ve been paying attention is the only active tight end on the roster that traveled with the team. So Cam Newton may have to just forget the tight end position is even an actual eligible receiver at this point. Not to mention, Julian Edelman is still on IR with a knee injury so it’ll be another night of throwing to Jakobi Meyers, Damiere Byrd, and the stable of running backs.
Sam Darnold is also doubtful to play with Joe Flacco most likely to get the start. I don’t know how the typical Jets fan feels about Darnold, but I like the player and I’d take him tomorrow if the Jets decide to draft a QB and move on. I get the sense that he’s yet another player that has been poisoned by the touch of offensive guru Adam Gase (see Tannehill, Drake, Stills etc.). Calling Gase an offensive guru at this point is, well, offensive.
Joe Flacco is forever living off that 6 week stretch when he got HOT and lead the Ravens to a Super Bowl in 2012. He was rewarded handsomely for that run with a 6-year $120 million extension, making him the highest paid player in the NFL at the time. All this for a player who ProFootballReference.com says has had a comparable career to that of Jay Cutler, Andy Dalton, and Matt Hasselbeck. And that seems pretty accurate. Flacco has/had the physical tools to be elite at times, but was often a middle of the road QB and at times a complete bum. With that being said he’s been OK this year despite an 0-2 record, throwing for 1 TD and 1 INT albeit with a garish completion percentage of 51.9% So the Jets best hopes of finally stomping out the Patriots probaly went out the window once Darnold was ruled out, but the Pats are so bad this year you can’t rule it out.
Cam Newton/Jarrett Stidham/Brian Hoyer have not been much better though aside from the Seattle game, which seems like it was years ago at this point. I’m curious to see if the Pats double down on keeping the ball in Cam’s hands as much as possible with designed runs or if they take a step back after last week’s game ending fumble. This is a roster devoid of offensive talent outside of the running back position though so there aren’t a ton of other options for Josh McDaniels and the Patriots.
Jamison Crowder is expected to play after missing yet another game last week. When Crowder does play he has been a high end WR2, but he’s already missed four games this season so he’s been impossible for fantasy owners (like me) to rely on. Despite missing four games, Crowder still leads the Jets in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a big game from him, especially if the Pats go up early.
Spread Patriots (-9.5) vs Jets (+9.5)
Despite being 2-5, the Pats are still nearly double digits favorites over the Jets (they’re even getting 10 points in some books). But even against the 0-8 Jets, I’m not comfortable laying 10 points with this increasingly ineffectual Patriots team. This is not the Patriots offense of my twenties so I’m not expecting a blowout tonight.
Prediction: Pats 17 Jets 10
The Jets have only scored more than 14 points twice this season so that doesn’t bode well for Gang Green, even with Stephon Gilmore out tonight. On the other side, Cam Newton has only thrown for 2 touchdowns with 7 picks in 6 games against varying strengths of defense. So I think the Patriots run day and night, control the clock, pop a couple TDs and get the hell out of there with an ugly W as the Jets continue their lonely march towards drafting Trevor Lawrence next year.
Folks, let me introduce myself. I have gone by many names: Big Game, G-Smooth, Jimmy Lips, etc. But for these exercises, I’m just the dude who researches sports information and makes educated guesses on the outcomes of player performances. There will be facts. There will be jokes. And hopefully, there will be success.
Let’s start out west in the Raiders and Chargers game.
Justin Herbert O270.5 pass yds(-115)
Co-Rookie of the Year favorite, Justin Herbert has been money both on the field and for fantasy owners this season. He has passed for over 271 yards in five of his six starts and the only time he didn’t was in his MNF showdown in Nola, when he finished with 264.
Over the past four games, the Raiders have allowed the following passing yard totals:
Josh Allen – 288
Patrick Mahomes – 340
Tom Brady – 369
Baker Mayfield – 122
Context is needed for the Mayfield outlier and it should be noted that the winds were howling and it was raining the entire game last Sunday.
DJ Chark O50.5 rec yds(-112)
Jaguars WR DJ Chark was not originally going to make the cut, but sometimes you have to wait (5 days) for good things to happen.
Texans CB Bradley Roby is out on Sunday due to disciplinary reasons.
“So what, James?!”
Well, that’s significant because that frees up Chark to roam a bit more comfortably. You’ll recall that Davante Adams just torched the Texans in Week 7 for 13-196-2. I am in no way implying that DJ Chark doo doo doo doo doo doo is Adams, but that Week 7 performance came with Roby on the field.
Over the past 5 weeks, the Texans have allowed just under 200 rec yds per game to WRs and the 2nd-most TDs to that position over that span (9).
Sterling Shepard O4.5 catches (-118) and O54.5 rec yds(-112)
I know what you’re thinking: “James, I don’t even know you, and yet I can tell this is a homer pick.”
Hear me out with these quick facts, though:
-Shepard has 18 targets over the past two games
-Shepard has has gone over 54 in each of those contests
-Shepard has 6+ catches in three of his four games this season
-WFT has allowed 3 WRs (Kupp, Woods & Cooper) to go over 54 yds in the last 3 gms
So this may very well be a homer pick, but it's a well-researched pick.
The Pats just made their big move of the deadline, trading a 2022 7th round pick to the Dolphins for WR Isaiah Ford, a 2017th 7th round pick out of Virginia Tech.
My initial reaction in GIF form:
Ford hasn’t exactly lit up the stat sheet with just 18 catches for 184 yards and 0 TDs on the season, but he is a big body at 6’2″ who should help the suddenly barren WR room in New England.
It’s hard to fault anyone for not being familiar with Ford’s work, but Belichick does have a tendency to trade for guys with multiple skillsets, and guys who despite modest stats have lit him up in the past. Ford checks both of those boxes.
Fun fact on Isaiah Ford: lefty.
(This is from last year’s regular-season finale. He had seven grabs for 54 yards to go along with this one carry for 11.) pic.twitter.com/9eXittx5N9
It’s not an apples to apples comparison because he ended up being one of the best receivers in Patriots history, but there is a similarity to another player Belichick acquired from the Dolphins. In 2006 the Dolphins’ Wes Welker had 9 receptions for 77 yards, returned 4 kickoffs, and returned 2 punts against the Patriots in Week 5. Belichick was smitten and despite a 1 catch performance in the Week 13 rematch, he traded a 2nd and a 7th for Welker that offseason.
I was just looking at the numbers and good lord you forget just how prolific Wes Welker was in this Patriots offense. He had triple digit receptions in every single year except his first season back from a torn his ACL. 112, 111, 123, 86, 122, and 118 receptions in each year in New England. Preposterous.
Now obviously that is best case scenario and one of the greatest trades in Patriots history so thats not a fair comparison, but there are parallels. He’s even got some slick moves in the slot for a guy his size!
Isaiah Ford (84) in the slot.
Burns Bobby Wagner by using pace to sell the sit route before breaking across the field pic.twitter.com/hRybkz5C29
If you believe Schefty it sounds like the Pats plan to stick him in the slot while Edelman is on the mend, which makes sense considering thats where the Dolphins have primarily used him this year.
New Patriots WR Isaiah Ford is 6-2, 194 pounds. Spent the last three seasons with Miami, catching 41 passes for 428 yards over 16 games. 18-184-0 in seven games this season. Played 207 of his 225 snaps this season in the slot, per PFF.
I don’t know what to expect from Ford, but some Dolphins writers were calling him the biggest steal of the 2017 draft. So there’s that. He’s not exactly a burner with a 4.6 40, but check out some of the positives from his BR scouting report.
Often, on his deep targets the defenders stay on his hip and he must make spectacular catches, which he flashes the ability to do. As he showed with his broad jump of 127 inches, Ford has explosive leaping ability that he uses to outjump defenders He has great body control in the air and near the sidelines, showing nice adjustments to the football. His combination of size, leaping ability and body control give him an excellent catch radius.
Now I’m not encouraging everyone to take their pants off reading scouting reports and watching college highlights because look how that turned out with N’Keal Harry, but Ford does have some impressive body control in his Virginia Tech highlights.
FWIW, here’s Isaiah Ford flexing his body control and high-point ability in college pic.twitter.com/HCSImBG0eI
So it’s not a sexy name or a big splashy trade, but those are rarely the ones that wind up being the most successful moves in New England so I’ll be keeping a close eye on this one.
I’m not going to put the blame all on Cam Newton here despite the way that game ended. This team is clearly just not that good and Newton’s top receiver yesterday was a former quarterback, and no I’m not talking about Julian Edelman. The offensive play calling was suspect at best. With all that being said, Newton hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass since Week 3. And I’m no NFL scout but it did look like Newton was laboring on a lot of his throws yesterday as he was still skipping passes on easy 5-10 yard routes. The offensive game plan yesterday was almost as if they were protecting Newton from himself. Newton was 15/25 with no touchdowns and no interceptions and there was almost nothing thrown deep. I looked at the drive charts for the Pats to see if my memory served me right and Newton had one completion of 28 yards, but that was thanks to a huge YAC play by James White. There was one medium range 22 yard completion to Damiere Byrd, but other than that there was nothing completed longer than 16 yards. So unsurprisingly the Bills were crowding the hell out of the box.
Meanwhile the Pats ran the ball 34 times, including 9 by Newton. So there was a lot of handing it off and more designed QB runs than we’ve seen in a while. I guess thats to be expected playing in the wind in Buffalo with two of your receivers out, but hey as Newton himself said the excuse basket is getting low. In the end the running was exactly what did them in as Newton failed to protect the ball while scrambling for a first and fumbled the game away.
To his credit he looked like he wanted to sit down in the shower and cry afterwards so I feel for him. But if you are unable to consistently move the ball through the air and are relying on your legs to make big plays then you have to protect the ball. The flashes this team showed on offense earlier in the season are now the Ghosts of Girlfriends Past.
I respect the hell out of the venom from FS1’s Tanya Ray Fox though. Say it louder for those in the back!
It only took Tom Brady leaving, no OTAs, no preseason, a bunch of starters opting out of the season, delayed games, weeks with no practice, Cam Newton getting and recovering from COVID, some bad weather and the world's stupidest fumble. Congrats on your big win, guys 🙃 https://t.co/BW3D2urnlk
So we now have to ask ourselves, is it time to move on from the Cam Newton experiment?
Sitting at 2-5 and having suffered four losses in a row this team is moving in reverse. They’ve guaranteed their worst record since 2018 (won the Super Bowl btw) and thats assuming they win out. I don’t know about you but I have a hard time imagining this team ripping off a 9-0 run. If they lose one more game, it’s their worst record since 2009 when they went 10-6 and lost in the Wild Card round. If they lose 2 more games it’s their worst record since 2002 when they went 9-7 and missed the playoffs sandwiched between two SB titles. And if they lose any more than that it would be their worst record since 2000 when they went 5-11 in Belichick’s first year at the helm.
Now I’m not excited for it, but I think its time to rip the Jarrett Stidham band-aid off and find out what exactly the Patriots have here. The team needs to figure out whether he’s the next guy or not. If that means trotting him out there for ritual sacrifice then so be it, but the Pats need to determine if Stidham can get it done. If not then they have to make a move this offseason. Theres 3-4 potential first round QBs likely coming out this year and the Patriots should be in a good position to get one of them, even if it’s not Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields.
There’s also been rumors about the return of the prodigal son Jimmy Garoppolo since the 49ers have reportedly been meh on him as the QB of the future.
But he did re-injure his ankle last night and according to Schefter will be out “indefinitely.” That comes after having already missed 2 games and then getting pulled in his first game back. Garoppolo has only made 30 starts out of a possible 56 games in four years in San Francisco due to various injuries including a torn ACL. My point being, I would not be shocked if the Niners decide to move on from him after this season. So if you’re a Patriots fan do you still want him? Do you think Bill can rekindle whatever magic he thought he had with the young QB? I’m not so sure of that as I was just a week ago. Especially after this latest injury since Belichick loves to say the best ability is availability. Either way the Pats will undoubtedly be kicking the tires on anyone with an arm attached to their body this offseason.
The Patriots are in a tough position brought on by the greatest player of all time leaving town, but also from poor drafting over the last few years finally catching up to them. The Pats are one of the oldest teams in the league as a result. Think about it, all of their best players are on the wrong side of 30: Edelman, Stephon Gilmore, both McCourtys, Matthew Slater, plus all the guys who opted out.
The book is out on this year’s draft class, but offensive lineman Michael Onwenu may have been a steal in the 6th round as Pro Football Focus has him ranked as the No. 1 rookie in the league. It’s debatable how much stock to put into PFF rankings, but being No. 1 on any list is pretty damn good.
Michael Onwenu is @PFF's highest-graded rookie in 2020.
He's played 80+ snaps at three different positions along the offensive line.
The books is probably still out on last year too. Chase Winovich looks like a nice role player, Joejuan Williams has shown potential, as has Damien Harris (now that he’s on the field), but N’Keal Harry has been underwhelming and we may soon find out with Jarrett Stidham. 2018 highlights include Isaiah Wynn and Sony Michel. Sigh. Ja’Waun Bentley has flashed at times, other than that there was Ryan Izzo, Braxton Berrios, and Danny Etling as notable names that year. 2017 landed them Deatrich Wise and three whiffs. 2016 was the year they took Cyrus Jones with their first pick and he was an unmitigated disaster. They did draft Joe Thuney that year though who’s been great, Ted Karras has been a solid contributor on the OL, Jacoby Brissett filled in for a game, Elandon Roberts, and a huge what if player in Malcolm Mitchell who looked awesome before knee injuries prematurely ended his career.
So yea, 5 years and arguably two elite players in Thuney and *maybe* Onwenu, but it’s way too early to tell. Other than that Belichick has collected role players, which is a far cry from the 2010 draft he absolutely NAILED, picking up Devin McCourty, Gronk, Brandon Spikes, pre-murderous Aaron Hernandez, and even a starting punter in Zoltan Mesko.
Bill Belichick on @OMFonWEEI: "I mean, look, we paid Cam Newton $1 million. It’s obvious that we didn’t have any money. It’s nobody’s fault. That’s what we did the last five years. We sold out. We won three Super Bowls, played in a fourth and played in an AFC Championship Game." pic.twitter.com/5LGeUboNGA
I don’t say all this to be an alarmist, I say it to be pragmatic. This team is facing a tall order and needs to really nail their next series of moves and the next draft to set themselves up for a rebound. If nothing else do it to shut up the Fired Football Coaches of America chirping from the peanut gallery like Rex Ryan.
I was watching this live yesterday and Rex was trying to play it cool and say it matter of factly, but you could feel the simmering rage in his voice after getting beat like a drum by Belichick and Brady for years.
The 300s 