Tag: Julian Edelman

Patriots Rams SUPER BOWL LIII Preview, Odds, and Predictions

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Photo cred: Roku Blog

Ya know, we really are so incredibly spoiled as Patriots fans.

Just think about it: For the third year in a row – and the ninth time in the past 18 seasons – we’re STILL gearing up for our favorite squad’s upcoming game as the calendar is about to hit February. Not since Buffalo made a run to four-straight Super Bowls in the 1990s has any other group been able to say that, and, in fact, four groups of fans have never had the chance to be in this position. I think it’s pretty well-established by this point that the Pats are quite possibly the greatest dynasty in the history of sports. But I just wanted to provide a friendly little reminder for anyone who forgot. (*He said with a big smirk.*)

All right, enough subtle bragging. Let’s get into the preview.

As always – for those who missed my full breakdown of all the game’s odds and prop bets last week – here’s a quick look at the important game info and latest lines:

  • Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta, GA)
  • Kickoff: Sunday, Feb. 3, 6:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS
  • Spread*: Patriots -2.5 / Rams -2.5
  • Moneyline*: Patriots -115 / Rams +130
  • Total*: 56.5 (total)

(*All of the information is courtesy of Odds Shark and updated as of Thursday, January 31.)

Where to begin? Well, for starters, both teams feature top-five offenses which are capable of putting up a lot of points in a hurry, while their defenses sit near the bottom third of the league overall (the Rams are 19th in total defense and the Pats aren’t too far behind at 21). But that does not mean either team is a pushover on the defensive side of the ball; in fact, both sides have Pro Bowlers and/or All-Pros all over the field, including likely NFL Defensive MVP Aaron Donald (Rams), who, in all seriousness, might be one of the greatest defensive lineman to ever play the game. (I’m not kidding.) Don’t also forget that the Pats gave up the seventh-least amount of points per game in the league this season (20.3).

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More on this monster when we get to the storylines.

Again, though, it’s the offensive side of the ball where these two squads really cut their teeth. The Rams were one of three teams to put up over 30 points per game this year (32.9) and can be very explosive; they had the third-most completions over 20 yards this season and averaged the second most yards per play (6.4), only behind Kansas City. The Pats finished fourth in the league with 27.3 points per contest, and their 5.9 yards-per-play mark isn’t all that far behind. The point is: both of these teams know how to move the ball and get into the end zone.

But there’s one pretty notable advantage the Pats have over the Rams on offense, and it should be pretty obvious to even the most casual NFL fans. This will be Tom Brady’s 39th postseason game overall and the ninth time he’s played in the Super Bowl; Jared Goff will be playing in just his fourth playoff game and his first-ever Super Bowl. In fact, Brady has played in as many career postseason games (39) as Goff has played overall career NFL games when you combine regular-season and playoff appearances.

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Goff looked petrified the whole time the two were up on stage together Monday night.

This is the Super Bowl, where experience matters. (Yeah, I know the Eagles pretty much disproved that last year, but I’m going to say that was an aberration.) And I think it’s pretty safe to say the Pats have the upper hand there:

There’s also the whole coaching experience the Pats possess as well. Again, much like Brady, I don’t think I need to waste time waxing poetic about how Bill Belichick is the greatest coach of all-time or talk about how he’s 34 years older than Rams coach Sean McVay, who is only in his second year of running the team. But, as I already pointed out last week, the fact that Belichick has been coaching in the league for over a decade longer than McVay has even been alive is INSANE, and it could certainly present itself as quite important in the game’s biggest moments.

However, McVay truly is an offensive wizard, and you can’t ignore the immense talent the Rams still possess. Fortunately, they may be slightly less talented than they were coming out of the gates this year, as Goff’s binky Cooper Kupp (aka “Julian Edelman Light”) was lost earlier in the year to an ACL tear, and All-World running back Todd Gurley has been slowed by knee issues of his own since the very end of the season. In fact, Gurley touched the ball just five times in the NFC Championship against the Saints for 13 total yards. Yet DO NOT SLEEP ON THIS MAN; he still put up over 1,251 yards on the ground and another 580 receiving this season with 21 total TDs. When healthy, Gurley is probably the top running back in the game right now. (And don’t forget, he’s also had two weeks off to heal up.)

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A fully healed and rested Gurley is capable of taking over any game at any time.

Even if Gurley doesn’t show up, the Rams have C.J. Anderson, who apparently signed a deal with the Devil this winter. After a 1,200-plus-yard effort with Denver last season, Anderson was let go, and for some reason it took forever for him to find a new home. He then signed with Carolina and struggled through nine games as a backup before being cut in early November. Then, just before Christmas, the Rams signed him due to Gurley’s health, and he’s responded with three 100-plus-yard rushing efforts in four games so far, averaging 5.68 yards per carry!

The Rams also have Robert Woods and former Patriot Brandin Cooks as a very solid wide-receiver pairing. Both guys had at least 80 catches, 1,200 yards, and five TDs this season, and they’ll make it tough for the Pats’ secondary to decide who to focus on. (QUICK PREDICTION: The Pats will likely bracket Cooks with one safety over the top due to his deep-threat ability, basically nullifying him as a weapon. In turn, Goff will have to force the ball to Woods more often than he’d like to, causing a costly interception or two.) As I said, it’s no longer a three-headed monster with Cupp out, but Josh Reynolds has still been a decent No. 3 option who is averaging over 18 yards per catch this postseason. As far as tight ends go, they’re pretty unimpressive in that department, and the Pats should be able to lock them down with ease.

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Old friend Cooks will be looking to actually play in the entire Super Bowl this time around.

Now, let’s get into some of the key matchups and other things I’ll be watching out for specifically on Sunday:

(Rams D-Tackles vs. Pats O-Line): I mentioned Aaron Donald at the top of the piece, and yes, he really is THAT good. He compiled 37 sacks through his first four seasons while also proving to be a force against the run, immediately proving himself to be one of the league’s top defenders after being drafted in the first round out of Pittsburgh in 2014. This season, though, he hit other-worldly levels, posting a league-leading 20.5 sacks, which is even more impressive considering he plays mostly from the interior. Michael Brockers has also been an underrated tackle for years, and let’s not forget the Rams also added former All-Pro Ndamukong Suh to the mix this year as well. Other than these guys, though, the Rams aren’t really all that scary up front (though defensive end and former No. 3 overall pick Dante Fowler can be good in spurts). Luckily, though, the Pats O-line has been even better, allowing zero sacks this postseason. As ferocious as Donald is, I’m really not worried about the Rams’ pass-rush in this one.

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The Pats O-line has truly been exceptional, but they haven’t played this guy yet.

(The Rams Secondary vs. the Pats WRs): The strength of the Rams defense is supposed to lie in their secondary. This offseason, along with Suh, the Rams brought in two former All-Pro corners in Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib, and most were ready to hand them the Lombardi Trophy before the season even started (myself included). But, for some reason, Peters has actually been just awful at times this season, Talib missed half the year due to injury, and the team finished right in the middle of the pack in terms of pass-coverage. Safety Lamarcus Joyner has probably been their most consistent player back there in 2018, and I’m scared at how confidently I believe in Brady’s ability to carve them up. Also, even though Nickell Robey-Coleman has been one of the league’s best (if not the best) slot corner this year, I still fully expect Edelman to eat him ALIVE in the slot – hopefully he just doesn’t get away with any more B.S. non-calls:

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(Pats Running Game vs. Rams Front Seven): The Pats were able to use all three of Sony Michel, James White, and Rex Burkhead against Kansas City, who collectively give them the best stable of backs they’ve had in years. While Michel is undoubtedly the grinder on the ground, the Pats can keep the Rams off balance with a mix of the other two catching balls out of the backfield. The Rams run defense has been a bit inconsistent this year; they kept guys like Ezekiel Elliot, Alvin Kamara, and Mark Ingram to a total of just 98 rushing yards this postseason, but they’d also given up over 100 ground yards in nine-of their-last-10 before that (including one where they surrendered 273 [!!!] and another in which they gave up 194). They also gave up the highest yard-per-carry average (5.1) to opponents this season. Knowing how good the Pats’ pass-blocking has been and the success they’ve seen with running the ball lately, the Rams will probably focus more on stopping the run. Believe it or not, even as bad as the Rams have been against the ground attack this year, I’m still expecting this one to set up much better for White and Burkhead as opposed to Michel. Cory Littleton (125 total tackles) has also been a revelation at linebacker for L.A. this year, and he could be the X-factor for them on defense in this one.

(Rams Running Game vs. the Pats Front Seven): I already mentioned how the Rams feature not only the game’s premier running back in Todd Gurley, but they’ve also received some unreal production out of C.J. Anderson lately as well. Whether Gurley is fully healed and rested in this one or not, Anderson has proven to be more than capable of carrying the load. The Pats have struggled against running backs at times this year, allowing 4.9 yards a tote, but they’ve given up just 60 rushing yards in total this postseason and a total of just 176 combined in the last two games of the regular season. However, Gurley can hurt them as a receiver out of the backfield, which is perhaps the Pats’ biggest area of weakness on the defensive side of the ball. In fact, Chiefs running back Damien Williams posted a solid five-catch, 66-yard, two-TD performance against the team less than two weeks ago. Dont’a Hightower, Elandon Roberts, and Kyle Van Noy are going to need to step their game up big time in this one.

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Van Noy has been one of the team’s best pass-rushers and all-around defensive contributors this season, but he leaves a lot to be desired in terms of pass-coverage. A LOT.

(Watch out for “Greg the Leg”): The Rams have one the league’s top kickers in Greg Zuerlein. He missed a couple games with an injury this year but has otherwise been money for the past three seasons, nailing 90 percent of his attempts over that time (including 95 percent of them last season). Not only is he accurate, but he’s got an incredibly powerful leg that pretty much puts the Rams in scoring position any time they’re on the opponent’s side of the field (10-for-13 on 50-plus-yarders the past two seasons). If the game’s close at the end and the Rams have the ball, this dude could end up being the dagger that takes down the throne.

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This guy can seriously kick the ball to outer space.

Prediction

While both teams are pretty close in terms of talent level, I feel like experience will end up being the key to victory here. Again, I know the Eagles had a first-year head coach and a backup quarterback win them a title last season, but the Pats defense was also really, reaallllyyy bad in that game. This year, they’re much more refined on that side of the ball, and the Rams aren’t playing at full strength. Above all, I just can’t see Jared Goff beating the G.O.A.T. coming off a Super Bowl loss. I just can’t. Edelman, White, and an adrenaline-filled Gronk will lead the way on offense, and the Pats end up winning with a bit more ease than expected, 34-27.

AND DON’T FORGET: Be sure to tune in on Facebook Live this Sunday from 1-3 p.m. – or come hang with us at Oak Square Liquors in Brighton – as The 300s crew brings you our first-ever LIVE podcast, giving you even more predictions, insight, and crazy shenanigans until just hours before kickoff!

The Patriots Are Going to Their Ninth Super Bowl With Tom Brady After Instant Classic AFC Championship

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Over an hour after the game I still have a heart rate somewhere near 200 beats per minute because that was the most stressful 4 hours of my life since February 2015 during the Patriots Seahawks Superbowl. My goodness. If I was wearing a Life Alert necklace there would be an ambulance on the way to my house right now because my heart rate is straight up unhealthy. As I said earlier tonight, this is no way to live….but I wouldn’t have it any other way.

Rob Gronkowski: Vintage like Merlot

He may not be putting up 9 for 160 and 3 TDs anymore, but this guy is still Tom Brady’s “gotta have it” guy. He is still a 6’6″ mammoth of a man with baby soft hands that can beat anyone one on one. As I mentioned on The 300s Podcast last week, the Patriots would need a vintage game from Gronk and thats exactly what we got with some key catches.

Julian Edelman is Logan

The man must have adamantium in his bones, there is no other explanation for how he can continuously take these massive hits. The guy just throws his back into 250 pound linebackers and gets up faster than I get out of bed after sleeping on my neck wrong. Incredible.

The Muffed Punt

If the Patriots go on to win the Super Bowl, the muffed punt that wasn’t will go down as one of the most insane moments in Patriots playoff history.

The Muffed Punt t-shirts are now on sale!

A play that likely would have sunk their season was overturned thanks to instant replay, despite the fact that the footage the referees were reviewing looked like found footage from an iPhone 4.

The Future

To the Chiefs I tip my cap, that was an absolutely incredible game. The future is yours, but like an older brother with the N64 clicker in hand; it’s still our turn.

Patriots Chargers “We’re Going to the AFC Championship!!!” Postgame Reaction and Quick Hits

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Like clockwork, the Pats are heading back to the AFC Championship – for the EIGHTH. STRAIGHT. YEAR. (It’s also the THIRTEENTH time that Tom Brady is playing in the penultimate game of the season; that’s six more than the guy with the second-most championship game appearances all-time, Joe Montana, who has seven.)

So maybe I was entirely wrong about the whole “this is gonna be a close one” thing. But if you thought the Pats were going to hang over 40 points today, or beat the Chargers by almost two scores, you’re either a psychic or just outright lying.

Besides scoring some garbage-time second-half points, the Chargers were absolutely dominated in this one from start to finish, on both sides of the ball. They couldn’t stop the Patriots from doing anything they wanted to on offense, and the Pats D was in Philip Rivers’s face ALL DAY, sacking him twice and pressuring him on what seemed like almost every dropback.

And once Rivers gets flustered, it’s usually all downhill from there. While the guy is tough as nails and has put up some pretty impressive numbers in his career, he can easily fly off the handle. (Seriously, though, I’m surprised he didn’t actually take flight with how much he was flapping his arms around on Sunday.)

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This man has always been a bit of a hot-head.

The fact that the Pats also won the time of possession battle by over sixteen minutes (!) also demonstrates just how much they controlled the whole game. (That means they literally held the ball on offense for more than an entire quarter more than Los Angeles did.) They were able to do so behind an excellent performance from Sony Michel on the ground (129 yards, 3 TDs) – if you may recall, I said earlier this week that Michel would be this game’s X-factor – along with the tried-and-true short-passing offense, which was highlighted by a 15-catch effort from James White.

Also, Julian Edelman was phenomenal. His nine catches and 151 yards helped the Pats move the ball even further down the field, and he is now second all-time in postseason catches, only behind the legendary Jerry Rice.

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Old Faithful showed up to play again on Sunday.

Phillip Dorsett and Chris Hogan contributed as well, with seven combined grabs, but this game was about four guys: Brady, Edelman, White, and Michel. Period.

Stephon Gilmore and Jason McCourty held it down in pass coverage. Trey Flowers, Adam Butler, and Adrian Clayborn all dominated up front as well, not only constantly getting in Rivers’s face but also by holding the Chargers’ running game to just 19 measly yards. (Yes, much of this had to do with game script, as L.A. only ran the ball a total of 10 times. But still, they were able to stonewall Melvin Gordon, who averaged a pathetic 1.7 yards per tote on nine attempts.)

Unlike in years past, however, the Pats are not going to be playing the AFC Championship at home. Instead, they’ll be heading out to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs. That game will kick off at 6:40 p.m. next Sunday night. And that one will not be as easy. You can take that to the bank.

But, before we turn our attention to next weekend’s showdown at Arrowhead, here’s a few more quick notes from today’s victory:

  • People will be quick to point out that Rob Gronkowski was pretty much non-existent in this one. He wasn’t even targeted until late in the second quarter, and he finished with just one catch. BUT that run he had after that one catch resulted in 25 yards and a few steamrolled Chargers defenders. Even more importantly, he was still a vital part of the offense due to his excellent blocking; he laid a huge block at the line of scrimmage on Michel’s big 40-yard run in the second quarter. So, while he may not be as much of a threat in the passing game anymore, the man is still an absolute beast in short spurts.
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You may not be what you once were, but I know how important you still are to us, big guy.

  • Speaking of blocking, hats off all around to the offensive line. As I pointed out in my preview on Friday, this was a potentially life-changing game for impending free agent Trent Brown, who was tasked with taking on Melvin Ingram for much of the game. You know, the Melvin Ingram who is supposed to be one of the league’s top pass-rushers and the man who looked like Lawrence Taylor last week against Baltimore? Or how about Joey Bosa, who’s supposed to be the Chargers’ superstar up front but finished with one tackle and literally NOTHING else on the day? I honestly cannot believe how well the Pats were able to COMPLETELY scheme those two out of the game on Sunday. But they sure did. Boy, did they ever.
  • After being touted as one of the Pats’ biggest offseason acquisitions, Adrian Clayborn has been a major disappointment all season, finishing the year with just 2.5 sacks and 11 total tackles. He sure showed up to play today, though, with three QB hurries and a sack. Especially in a game where the team was without Deatrich Wise, who is dealing with an ankle issue, Clayborn stepped up big time.
  • For as much as Rivers made it look like the refs weren’t calling anything all day, the Pats were actually called for an alarming nine penalties, resulting in 75 yards. As has been pointed out before, this has been a really bad habit that the team has gotten itself into lately, and it’s just really surprising from a Bill-Belichick-coached team. It didn’t end up hurting them too much this afternoon, but they can’t do that again next week in Kansas City.

Feel good about this one, Pats Nation, but do not let this taint your view of what lies ahead. The Chiefs killed a red-hot Colts team on Saturday, and it is not going to be easy next Sunday night. (No, but I really mean it this time.)

Be sure to stay tuned to The 300s all week for all the coverage you need leading up to the big game!

I Finally Got to Touch the Sacred Turf at Gillette Stadium as The 300s Went Field Level for the Patriots Game

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So through a friend of The 300s I somehow stumbled into field passes for the Patriots game yesterday and finally got to touch the sacred turf at Gillette. The same turf that Tom Brady has given me countless memories on over the years so it was a borderline religious experience.

You see all those 300s hats? That’s called branding guys. Marketing 101.

It was a beautiful monsoon-like day for a football game so naturally I had to stop at Marshalls on the way to Foxboro to pick up some waterproof pants like I was going gator hunting.

In a weird stat, Kirk Cousins threw for more yards warming up than he did in the actual game.

I thought jersey duos like this only existed on the internet, but alas I saw this couple up in the nosebleeds and it was glorious.

Check out the full breakdown below as we pretended to be part of the elite down at field level before going up into the 300s with the rest of our degenerate brethren.

Julian Edelman Officially Added to the Patriots Active 53 Man Roster

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Heeeeee’s baAAAck ladies and gentleman. The Option QB From Kent State. The 2nd Most Handsome Patriot. The #11 that goes next to #12. One Nibble Everyone Knows The Law. Julian Edelman himself has officially been activated to the Patriots 53-man roster. This is obviously huge for the team and specifically important for I would say for four different reasons.

1.) First and foremost we have to address what this means for Tom Brady. Arguably his most trusted target is back in the lineup which will make Brady feel that much more comfortable. And a comfortable Brady is it dangerous Brady.

2.) The Patriots offense finally broke out last week in a big way. Now imagine that + Edelman in the mix. Imagine Brady’s new buddy Dorsett last week but with less eyes on him? Remember what Chris Hogan could do downfield and in the seam when someone was distracting defenders over the middle? It is a fun thing to ponder indeed.

3.) I didn’t buy too much into this but if what Gronk’s brother said was true and Gronk was unhappy with the lack of weapons in the Patriots offense then he’ll be a lot happier now. In general Gronk’s body language hasn’t been great the last few weeks so having another weapon in the offense, and a fun-loving one at that, should be a huge boost for the best tight end in the league.

4.) Finally we get to Edelman himself. Because really unless we completely blow the rest of the season the NFL kind of did him and us a favor. Edelman has always been a bit injury-prone and, at 32, isn’t getting any younger for a wide receiver of his size. So basically, the NFL gave him an extra 4 weeks to relax, recover from his ACL injury and any other bumps and bruises, and return to the Pat’s 110% ready to kick ass. Not a bad deal for #11 or for a 2-2 team on the rise.

What just dawned me is this really is where the season begins. Starting tonight against the Colts, Edelman’s first game back, we get to see what is the fully loaded and staffed Patriots of the 18′-19′ season. Like most of the last 20 years, I like our chances.

 

-Joey B

 

 

Patriots Colts Week 5 Game Preview, Odds, and Things to Watch For

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New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12), left, prepares to throw the ball during the first quarter against the Baltimore Ravens during the the 2014 AFC Divisional playoff football game at ...

Photo: Chris Humphreys/USA Today Sports

There are times when I’m OK with being wrong. Last Sunday was one of those times, as the Pats absolutely spanked Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins at home in a 31-point win. Does this mean they should be considered a juggernaut once again? Or was it just an easy fluke win against a team that always soils their jock straps every time they’re in Foxborough?

I’d say the answer probably lies somewhere in between. Next up is Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts on a short week for some Thursday Night Football action. As always, here’s a quick look at where, when, and how to watch the game along with the latest lines:

  • Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, MA)
  • Kickoff: Thursday, Oct. 4, 8:20 p.m. ET
  • TV: FOX; NFL Network (Check local listings)
  • Odds (via Odds Shark): Patriots: -10 (spread)/Patriots: -475 (moneyline)/51.5 (total)

So Who are the Colts?

The Colts are a team that LOVES to chuck the ball. Most of this probably has to do with their 29th-ranked running game, which is basically a three-headed “attack” – soon to be four-headed with the return of Robert Turbin off suspension this week – that is averaging a collective 3.6 yards per carry. While Turbin could theoretically come back and take over the reigns right away, I don’t expect a guy who’s played in 21 games over the past three seasons, while averaging a measly 3.1 yards a tote, to come in and go gangbusters.

For the most part, it’s been two rookies, Jordan Wilkins and Nyheim Hines, who have led the way for Indy, with Wilkins being more of the ball-carrier and Hines being the do-it-all, Swiss army knife out of the backfield. Wilkins, who leads the team in carries, has produced an unspectacular 136 yards on 38 attempts this year. Hines, though, leads the team in receptions with 22, with nine of them coming against the Houston Texans two days ago (on top of two touchdowns). He was an electric collegiate player at North Carolina State as well, and there’s no doubt the Colts believe in his talent.

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Only a rookie, Hines is already a pretty fun little player to watch.

(The Colts also have second-year man Marlon Mack, who flashed at times as a rookie last season and was expected to lead the pack in 2018. However, he’s played in one game this year due to a nagging hamstring, and we’re not sure yet if he’ll play on Thursday night.)

Rather than continue to try and decipher the jumbled mess that is the Colts backfield, let’s take a look at what to expect from Andrew Luck. The former No. 1 overall pick, who smashed all sorts of NFL records over his first three years in the league, is finally healthy again after his career was looking like it was in serious jeopardy. (For those who aren’t up to speed, here’s a pretty detailed timeline of Luck’s injury saga from The Score.)

While Luck has been a bit up and down this year, he is coming off a 464-yard, four touchdown performance. He’s also tied for second in the league with 186 passing attempts on the year. So for all of those who have been saying that he just hasn’t looked the same and he just doesn’t have that same zip on his passes anymore:

T.Y. Hilton is happy to have Luck back, too, as he is averaging an impressive 14 yards a catch with two scores on the year. Other guys like Ryan Grant, Chester Rogers, and the two-headed tight-end attack of Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle – and, of course, Hines – give Luck a solid group of guys to throw the ball to.

(WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: Both Doyle and Hilton are officially listed as OUT for tomorrow night’s contest. Therefore, the Colts receiving options will actually be looking pretty thin this week, which is obviously great news for the Pats D.)

Surprisingly, the Colts defense has been in the middle of the pack this year against both the run and the pass, and they haven’t been the terrible piece of swiss cheese I expected them to be in 2018. Their 17 sacks are also tied for second in the league, but after playing 80-plus snaps in each of the past two games, hopefully the D is a bit tired and won’t completely feast on Brady.

Storylines to Watch For

(Welcome Back, Jules!): After 24 games without his top target, Tom Brady finally gets his biffle Julian Edelman back on the field once again. HALLELUJAH. Sure, Edelman is 32 years old and coming off a pretty serious knee injury, but hopefully those extra four games off this season just gave him more time to heal. Above all, even with Josh Gordon now in the fold, Edelman is the team’s most important receiving option. While Gordon and Gronk can come through with the big play down the field, Edelman gives Brady that reliable, chain-moving option he’s so desperately missed. I think you’re also going to see a much more chipper TB12 from here on out. Welcome back, No. 11.

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Jules is back to silence the haters after an all-too-long absence.

(Where’s the Pass-Rush?): The Pats defense got a huge boost last week with the return of both Trey Flowers and Patrick Chung. Newly signed John Simon also had a nice debut with three tackles and a sack on Sunday. However, the much-improved pass-rush everyone was expecting to see this year has been M.I.A. so far. Outside of Flowers, Simon, Adam Butler, and my boy Deatrich Wise (who leads the team with 2.5 sacks), not ONE other Pats player has been able to take down the quarterback through four games. This should be a game where we start to see some improvement, though, against a suspect Colts offensive line that could still be missing incumbent left tackle Anthony Castonzo, who has yet to see a snap this year. The Texans had a field day against the Colts this past weekend with four sacks and 11 quarterback hits. If the Pats can’t get the pass-rush going on Thursday night, color me concerned.

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After completely whiffing on my Burkhead for offensive MVP pick, at least my pick for the team’s defensive MVP this season has given me some vindication.

Prediction

Feeling good off a nice win and boosted by the return of Edelman, the Pats will come out hot at home, going up by a couple scores in quick fashion. The Colts, who are still tired and reeling from a devastating OT defeat just four days prior, will be sluggish and their mediocre defense will crumble in front of the crowd at Gillette. Their offense may also struggle mightily with Luck’s two favorite targets – Doyle and Hilton – both definitely sitting out. By the middle of the third quarter, the game will be all but over. The Pats take it 34-13.

My Patriots Confidence Meter is Officially at Concerned Level

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I’m not, not worried about the Patriots if we’re being honest. After last night’s double digit loss to the Detroit Lions, on my Meter of Confidence, I am currently residing at Concerned, one tick below Alarmed.

It’s only September. It’s only September. It’s only September. Thats what I keep telling myself. However, that was a piss poor effort against a winless team in the Lions. I do want to see this team at full strength with Julian Edelman and Flowers and Chung back before making any final assessments, but those decisions could be made for the Pats before they’re able to get back to full strength.

Well when you say it like that…

Hurley’s right though, even when they do get all their guys back, thats not promising any season altering improvements.

A loss to the 3-0 Dolphins next week would put the Pats at 1-3 and 3 games out of first place as well as putting us Patriots fans in an uncommon position; looking up in the AFC East. I’m also trying to keep my expectations in check because it would be totally unfair to expect hope a guy who’s played 11 games in the last four years to be Tom Brady’s savior at receiver. Unfortunately that what this team needs right now. A game changer.

Or they need to get a whole hell of a lot more creative with the ball. James White, one of the Patriots most reliable veterans on a team suddenly searching for answers, only had 3 touches last night. THREE. One of which was a touchdown, ironically enough. Listen I love Sony Michel and I know the Patriots spent a 1st round pick on him, but having Michel outsnap the veteran while he continues to drop balls is not a recipe for success. It would seem like Tom Brady agrees too.

“Yeah, he had a great catch, and had some good runs there at the end. He’s just a great player for us. So, you’re right. He’s gotta be involved. Guys who can make plays are the ones that should be involved. And James is certainly one of them.”

Thats before we even get to the gigantic elephant in the room. There has been drama swirling around this team for the past year, which started with the Seth Wickersham article and culminated this week with the “Brady wants a divorce from Belichick” story and then on Sunday afternoon Adam Schefter reported that the Pats nearly traded Rob Gronkowski to the Lions only to have Gronk threaten to retire rather than accept a trade to Detroit.

All great news to come out hours before a game. Welp, Gronk finished the game with 4 receptions for 51 yards and 0 TDs after getting double teamed the whole game and then made the whole situation infinitely worse by confirming Schefty’s report post-game.

“Yeah, it happened,” Gronkowski said after New England’s loss to the Lions Sunday night. “Brady’s my quarterback. I’m not going anywhere without Brady.”

And then there’s Gronk’s brother coming to Rob’s defense before anyone pointed to his middling stat line.

So thats just great. Lets not even pretend to be a non-dysfunctional team anymore. Again, I’m not panicking quite yet, as you would want your star TE to want to continue playing for your team. Players threatening to retire doesn’t exactly inspire confidence and trust with the rest of the team, but hey at least he wants to play *here* Right?

I will never count out a Tom Brady led Patriots team until the ink is dry on his retirement papers. Hell I probably won’t doubt a Patriots comeback until I see Tom is his gold jacket.

But with that being said, if the Patriots drop another game next week against RYAN TANNEHILL and the Dolphins, then my meter will officially tick to Alarmed and we will be on Panic watch from there on out.

The Patriots Got Poached by the Jaguars Yesterday

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Sunday was an ugly day for the New England Patriots. I was feeling pretty confident heading in and since I was in the great state of New Jersey I even placed a legal wager on my boys to pull it out. Welp, midway through the first quarter I knew I wasn’t getting that money back ever again. What seemed like a steamrolling by the Jaguars was a game that actually pivoted on just a handful of plays and missed opportunities, which I have painstakingly compiled below. Andddd go!

-Gostkowski missed another bunny in a key moment. Yuck, this guy is basically Tuukka Rask to me these days. He’s not as bad as sports talk radio says, but he’s definitely not as great as the team would have you believe. I know it’s only a handful of kicks he’s missed over the years, but they all seem to stick out in my memory because they all came in key situations. Regardless of his FG percentage, I do not want this guy anywhere near a game tying or game winning kick anymore.

-Refs missed a holding call against Gronk (and a potential roughing the passer) and the Pats were forced to kick on 4th down on their first drive, which as we mentioned above Gostkowski shanked with an absolute duck of a kick.

-A Jacksonville receiver fumbled a ball that jumped like a magic fucking bean right into another Jacksonville receiver’s hands for the luckiest of recoveries.

-This defense looked like swiss cheese all day, which is alarming, but it would be out of character for any Patriots fan to completely overreact. We’ve seen these early season losses when the team is still trying to figure it out. Whether it was the offensive line or the right linebacker rotation, we’ve seen it before and this year is probably no different especially when it comes to the wide receivers. Hell the Pats are like the high school jock who got a little too high on himself and dumped a perfectly nice girl (Kenny Britt), only to try and get her back after he’s put on the freshman 15 at college.

-Eric Rowe got roasted all day long. One of the plays against him was impossible to stop:

But he then immediately got beat for a TD he should have been able to defend.

-The defense got burned on 3rd down all game long as Bortles scrambled and found an open man or ran for first downs himself. Hell he’s got the third highest Avg Yards per Rush for a QB in the history of the league, just a tick behind Michael Vick.

-The defense was bad yes, but lets remember that it took a career day from Blake Bortles (29 of 45 for 377 yards, 4 touchdowns, 1 interception). Literally the best game of his career to topple the Patriots, which kind of stung after I clowned Bortles all week long and lost a little coin in the process, but hey thems the breaks.

Hey, at least this defense can lay the wood:

-How about Tom Brady and Josh McDaniels losing their shit on the sidelines in the first half?

Thats the most concerning visual from the entire game. It kind of felt like Brady and McDaniels were starting to worry that this team might not be able to get them where they want to go. Hopefully it’s just the two of them blowing off some steam on the new guys making mental errors.

-Breathe and say it with me….Julian Edelman will be back in 3 weeks.

-I’m pretty sure Mattes and I have stumbled onto some black magic as the two guys we picked for team MVPs on The 300s Podcast, Rex Burkhead and Trey Flowers, have each gotten concussions in the first two weeks. Another guy Mattes picked as a DPOY was Deatrich Wise, who left the game late with what the announcers speculated as some jumbled finger digits. I’m not comfortable with this type of power.

-At one point midway through the second half the broadcast team pointed out that it had been a full 45 minutes since Tom Brady had thrown the ball. That cannot help gameflow and momentum.

-The non-call of the Jags jumping offsides on 4th down late in the game as the Pats tried to draw the penalty before punting. As the broadcast team, and TV shots of a fuming Belichick pointed out, the offensive lineman needs to touch the the defender if he jumps onside otherwise he can reset and the refs won’t call it. Romo even pointed out in the replay you can see the official reach for his flag before deciding against it. That one hurt.

-Before the season I predicted the Pats would split with the Jags and the Texans and be 3-1 after the first month. After Week 2, we’re exactly where I expected so unless they drop a game to the Lions and old friend Matt Patricia

or the Dolphins, who tried their very best to give away a W to the Jets on Sunday, then we’re fine.

-Don’t get it twisted, this defense is somewhere between hot garbage and a cold lunch, BUT its probably a little bit better than the defense that was one stop away from winning back to back Super Bowls last year. So it may not always be pretty, it will probably be infuriatingly bad at times, but at the end of the day it should be good enough to keep the team alive as long as TB12 is under center…..and not a second longer.

-After predicting the Pats would do their best to eviscerate Jalen Ramsey for trash talking Gronk (I may have said something about making his children orphans, but I forget) and they did nothing of the sort. The offense could not get into a rhythm and anytime they did, their momentum was killed by turnovers and missed kicks.

-Cordarrelle Patterson killed a drive when he tripped over the Ghost of Christmas Past on a key third down. After the Pats defense came up huge and forced a quick 3 and out, the offense came out onto the field and these next two tweets came over the span of 6 minutes.

Patterson caught a screen out of the backfield and looked like he had room to run, but his feet would not cooperate as he tripped over nothing and fell down to end the drive in its tracks.

Anddd 5 minutes after that Bortles threw a pick to try and let the Patriots back into the game. Anddd then 3 minutes after that Brady was strip sacked and that was the game.

So I just have to tip my cap to the Jaguars. It’s only Week 2 so I hope they aren’t riding too high….

“It kind of felt like we won a Super Bowl, man,” safety Tashaun Gipson said. “I won’t even kid you. It was that type of atmosphere and environment.

….because we’ve seen this story before (see: Chiefs 2014), but alas I tip my cap.

-Josh Gordon?? I say yes because of the pure ability coupled with the age; 27 whereas Dez Bryant will be 30 soon.

But obviously the guy has been dealing with issues for years. The last, and only, good season Gordon had came back in 2013. Back when Shane Victorino played for the Red Sox. Tom E. Curran makes a pretty compelling argument against the receiver as well:

He’s played in 11 of a possible 65 games since his absurd 2013 season (86 catches, 1,646 yards). He needs full-time supervision, it seems. Permissiveness, understanding and contorting for Gordon’s needs all offseason got the Browns . . . a game. One catch. A touchdown. And then they threw up their hands.

How’s that return on emotional investment and time spent? Not real good. It’s not inhumane to tell a troubled person he is unemployable, which Gordon has been and seemingly still is.

Besides, the Patriots were already down the road with one wide receiver project, Cordarelle Patterson. Then they added Corey Coleman this week.

If feels like they are at capacity when it comes to getting talented but hard-to-reach downfield receivers assimilated. This isn’t July when there’s nothing to do but conditioning, working on timing and getting on the same page. There are games every seven days now, game plans to install, fine-tune and execute.

The reality is, nobody’s got time for Josh Gordon right now.

Despite all that, the Patriots are at least doing their due diligence on Gordon according to Bert Breer.

So that may have been more than just a few pivot points, but I think its just an early season misstep for the Pats (one that I expected) as they build for the longterm and assess what their strengths and weaknesses are. Plus I feel much more confident going against the Jags in the playoffs going for the split, rather than trying to beat Sacksonville twice in one season.

Up next is old friend Matt Patricia and my worst fantasy draft pick in a decade; Matt Stafford.

What I Learned from the Tom Brady Tom vs Time Epilogue

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To be honest, not much. When news of this Tom vs Time epilogue dropped out of the clouds I was a little nervous. People were theorizing that he might use it as an opportunity to announce his retirement. What it really seemed like though was a PR market adjustment attempt by Tom Brady. This offseason was not a great one for Tom’s image as rumors of infighting with Belichick, rumors of him threatening to retire, all the Alex Guerrero drama, and then of course his buddy and TB12 client Julian Edelman getting popped for PEDs.

So it seems like Tom just wanted to put his spin on everything and let people know that despite all the noise, its just that; noise. He still intends to play for as long as he can aka “5 more years.” So we’ll see, but I don’t think that 5 minutes of Tom vs Time can make you feel anything other than confident Brady is focused on getting that next ring.

With all that being said…

There is TONS of fire flames TB12 swag in the pipelines that I can only hope is coming our way soon.

Did anyone else catch this?

TB12 SHOES. Sorry Kanye, but Tom Brady just became my lord and savior in the sneaker world. So you better believe I will have my eyes open and on the lookout for these babies.

And the 5 Rings hoodie?

Just take my credit card information right now.

Tom Brady teased us for years with the TB12 hats before we were able to actually buy them. Once they went on sale I did not wait around. I bought two.

What can I say, the man knows how to market. I will, however, NOT buy a vibrating foam roller. Come on now.