Tag: New England Patriots

Patriots Rams SUPER BOWL LIII Preview, Odds, and Predictions

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Photo cred: Roku Blog

Ya know, we really are so incredibly spoiled as Patriots fans.

Just think about it: For the third year in a row – and the ninth time in the past 18 seasons – we’re STILL gearing up for our favorite squad’s upcoming game as the calendar is about to hit February. Not since Buffalo made a run to four-straight Super Bowls in the 1990s has any other group been able to say that, and, in fact, four groups of fans have never had the chance to be in this position. I think it’s pretty well-established by this point that the Pats are quite possibly the greatest dynasty in the history of sports. But I just wanted to provide a friendly little reminder for anyone who forgot. (*He said with a big smirk.*)

All right, enough subtle bragging. Let’s get into the preview.

As always – for those who missed my full breakdown of all the game’s odds and prop bets last week – here’s a quick look at the important game info and latest lines:

  • Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta, GA)
  • Kickoff: Sunday, Feb. 3, 6:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS
  • Spread*: Patriots -2.5 / Rams -2.5
  • Moneyline*: Patriots -115 / Rams +130
  • Total*: 56.5 (total)

(*All of the information is courtesy of Odds Shark and updated as of Thursday, January 31.)

Where to begin? Well, for starters, both teams feature top-five offenses which are capable of putting up a lot of points in a hurry, while their defenses sit near the bottom third of the league overall (the Rams are 19th in total defense and the Pats aren’t too far behind at 21). But that does not mean either team is a pushover on the defensive side of the ball; in fact, both sides have Pro Bowlers and/or All-Pros all over the field, including likely NFL Defensive MVP Aaron Donald (Rams), who, in all seriousness, might be one of the greatest defensive lineman to ever play the game. (I’m not kidding.) Don’t also forget that the Pats gave up the seventh-least amount of points per game in the league this season (20.3).

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More on this monster when we get to the storylines.

Again, though, it’s the offensive side of the ball where these two squads really cut their teeth. The Rams were one of three teams to put up over 30 points per game this year (32.9) and can be very explosive; they had the third-most completions over 20 yards this season and averaged the second most yards per play (6.4), only behind Kansas City. The Pats finished fourth in the league with 27.3 points per contest, and their 5.9 yards-per-play mark isn’t all that far behind. The point is: both of these teams know how to move the ball and get into the end zone.

But there’s one pretty notable advantage the Pats have over the Rams on offense, and it should be pretty obvious to even the most casual NFL fans. This will be Tom Brady’s 39th postseason game overall and the ninth time he’s played in the Super Bowl; Jared Goff will be playing in just his fourth playoff game and his first-ever Super Bowl. In fact, Brady has played in as many career postseason games (39) as Goff has played overall career NFL games when you combine regular-season and playoff appearances.

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Goff looked petrified the whole time the two were up on stage together Monday night.

This is the Super Bowl, where experience matters. (Yeah, I know the Eagles pretty much disproved that last year, but I’m going to say that was an aberration.) And I think it’s pretty safe to say the Pats have the upper hand there:

There’s also the whole coaching experience the Pats possess as well. Again, much like Brady, I don’t think I need to waste time waxing poetic about how Bill Belichick is the greatest coach of all-time or talk about how he’s 34 years older than Rams coach Sean McVay, who is only in his second year of running the team. But, as I already pointed out last week, the fact that Belichick has been coaching in the league for over a decade longer than McVay has even been alive is INSANE, and it could certainly present itself as quite important in the game’s biggest moments.

However, McVay truly is an offensive wizard, and you can’t ignore the immense talent the Rams still possess. Fortunately, they may be slightly less talented than they were coming out of the gates this year, as Goff’s binky Cooper Kupp (aka “Julian Edelman Light”) was lost earlier in the year to an ACL tear, and All-World running back Todd Gurley has been slowed by knee issues of his own since the very end of the season. In fact, Gurley touched the ball just five times in the NFC Championship against the Saints for 13 total yards. Yet DO NOT SLEEP ON THIS MAN; he still put up over 1,251 yards on the ground and another 580 receiving this season with 21 total TDs. When healthy, Gurley is probably the top running back in the game right now. (And don’t forget, he’s also had two weeks off to heal up.)

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A fully healed and rested Gurley is capable of taking over any game at any time.

Even if Gurley doesn’t show up, the Rams have C.J. Anderson, who apparently signed a deal with the Devil this winter. After a 1,200-plus-yard effort with Denver last season, Anderson was let go, and for some reason it took forever for him to find a new home. He then signed with Carolina and struggled through nine games as a backup before being cut in early November. Then, just before Christmas, the Rams signed him due to Gurley’s health, and he’s responded with three 100-plus-yard rushing efforts in four games so far, averaging 5.68 yards per carry!

The Rams also have Robert Woods and former Patriot Brandin Cooks as a very solid wide-receiver pairing. Both guys had at least 80 catches, 1,200 yards, and five TDs this season, and they’ll make it tough for the Pats’ secondary to decide who to focus on. (QUICK PREDICTION: The Pats will likely bracket Cooks with one safety over the top due to his deep-threat ability, basically nullifying him as a weapon. In turn, Goff will have to force the ball to Woods more often than he’d like to, causing a costly interception or two.) As I said, it’s no longer a three-headed monster with Cupp out, but Josh Reynolds has still been a decent No. 3 option who is averaging over 18 yards per catch this postseason. As far as tight ends go, they’re pretty unimpressive in that department, and the Pats should be able to lock them down with ease.

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Old friend Cooks will be looking to actually play in the entire Super Bowl this time around.

Now, let’s get into some of the key matchups and other things I’ll be watching out for specifically on Sunday:

(Rams D-Tackles vs. Pats O-Line): I mentioned Aaron Donald at the top of the piece, and yes, he really is THAT good. He compiled 37 sacks through his first four seasons while also proving to be a force against the run, immediately proving himself to be one of the league’s top defenders after being drafted in the first round out of Pittsburgh in 2014. This season, though, he hit other-worldly levels, posting a league-leading 20.5 sacks, which is even more impressive considering he plays mostly from the interior. Michael Brockers has also been an underrated tackle for years, and let’s not forget the Rams also added former All-Pro Ndamukong Suh to the mix this year as well. Other than these guys, though, the Rams aren’t really all that scary up front (though defensive end and former No. 3 overall pick Dante Fowler can be good in spurts). Luckily, though, the Pats O-line has been even better, allowing zero sacks this postseason. As ferocious as Donald is, I’m really not worried about the Rams’ pass-rush in this one.

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The Pats O-line has truly been exceptional, but they haven’t played this guy yet.

(The Rams Secondary vs. the Pats WRs): The strength of the Rams defense is supposed to lie in their secondary. This offseason, along with Suh, the Rams brought in two former All-Pro corners in Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib, and most were ready to hand them the Lombardi Trophy before the season even started (myself included). But, for some reason, Peters has actually been just awful at times this season, Talib missed half the year due to injury, and the team finished right in the middle of the pack in terms of pass-coverage. Safety Lamarcus Joyner has probably been their most consistent player back there in 2018, and I’m scared at how confidently I believe in Brady’s ability to carve them up. Also, even though Nickell Robey-Coleman has been one of the league’s best (if not the best) slot corner this year, I still fully expect Edelman to eat him ALIVE in the slot – hopefully he just doesn’t get away with any more B.S. non-calls:

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(Pats Running Game vs. Rams Front Seven): The Pats were able to use all three of Sony Michel, James White, and Rex Burkhead against Kansas City, who collectively give them the best stable of backs they’ve had in years. While Michel is undoubtedly the grinder on the ground, the Pats can keep the Rams off balance with a mix of the other two catching balls out of the backfield. The Rams run defense has been a bit inconsistent this year; they kept guys like Ezekiel Elliot, Alvin Kamara, and Mark Ingram to a total of just 98 rushing yards this postseason, but they’d also given up over 100 ground yards in nine-of their-last-10 before that (including one where they surrendered 273 [!!!] and another in which they gave up 194). They also gave up the highest yard-per-carry average (5.1) to opponents this season. Knowing how good the Pats’ pass-blocking has been and the success they’ve seen with running the ball lately, the Rams will probably focus more on stopping the run. Believe it or not, even as bad as the Rams have been against the ground attack this year, I’m still expecting this one to set up much better for White and Burkhead as opposed to Michel. Cory Littleton (125 total tackles) has also been a revelation at linebacker for L.A. this year, and he could be the X-factor for them on defense in this one.

(Rams Running Game vs. the Pats Front Seven): I already mentioned how the Rams feature not only the game’s premier running back in Todd Gurley, but they’ve also received some unreal production out of C.J. Anderson lately as well. Whether Gurley is fully healed and rested in this one or not, Anderson has proven to be more than capable of carrying the load. The Pats have struggled against running backs at times this year, allowing 4.9 yards a tote, but they’ve given up just 60 rushing yards in total this postseason and a total of just 176 combined in the last two games of the regular season. However, Gurley can hurt them as a receiver out of the backfield, which is perhaps the Pats’ biggest area of weakness on the defensive side of the ball. In fact, Chiefs running back Damien Williams posted a solid five-catch, 66-yard, two-TD performance against the team less than two weeks ago. Dont’a Hightower, Elandon Roberts, and Kyle Van Noy are going to need to step their game up big time in this one.

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Van Noy has been one of the team’s best pass-rushers and all-around defensive contributors this season, but he leaves a lot to be desired in terms of pass-coverage. A LOT.

(Watch out for “Greg the Leg”): The Rams have one the league’s top kickers in Greg Zuerlein. He missed a couple games with an injury this year but has otherwise been money for the past three seasons, nailing 90 percent of his attempts over that time (including 95 percent of them last season). Not only is he accurate, but he’s got an incredibly powerful leg that pretty much puts the Rams in scoring position any time they’re on the opponent’s side of the field (10-for-13 on 50-plus-yarders the past two seasons). If the game’s close at the end and the Rams have the ball, this dude could end up being the dagger that takes down the throne.

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This guy can seriously kick the ball to outer space.

Prediction

While both teams are pretty close in terms of talent level, I feel like experience will end up being the key to victory here. Again, I know the Eagles had a first-year head coach and a backup quarterback win them a title last season, but the Pats defense was also really, reaallllyyy bad in that game. This year, they’re much more refined on that side of the ball, and the Rams aren’t playing at full strength. Above all, I just can’t see Jared Goff beating the G.O.A.T. coming off a Super Bowl loss. I just can’t. Edelman, White, and an adrenaline-filled Gronk will lead the way on offense, and the Pats end up winning with a bit more ease than expected, 34-27.

AND DON’T FORGET: Be sure to tune in on Facebook Live this Sunday from 1-3 p.m. – or come hang with us at Oak Square Liquors in Brighton – as The 300s crew brings you our first-ever LIVE podcast, giving you even more predictions, insight, and crazy shenanigans until just hours before kickoff!

REAL TALK: James White is the Most Disrespected Patriot of All-Time

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In the midst of all the hoopla leading up to Super Bowl LIII, I had to take the time today to give some shine to go a guy who has just not been getting the love he deserves. This is a man who has always stepped up in the biggest moments and one whom is directly responsible for almost 60 percent of the points scored in the Pats’ last Super Bowl victory. (More on that last part in a minute.)

That man is none other than James White, and it’s time to make sure people know just how damn important this dude is – and has been – to the team’s success in recent years.

Look, this team runs through Tom Brady, and I don’t think we need to rehash the reasons why he gets all the attention. Julian Edelman, the NFL’s second-leading postseason receiver of all-time, is another player who’s obviously going to get a lot of love. And Gronk, even after a disappointing year by his standards, was the other Pats player who received pretty much all of the coverage at Super Bowl Opening Night – which obviously isn’t surprising considering the dog-and-pony-show nature of the event.

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Of course, Gronk made sure to ham it up all night on Monday.

But even still, other guys like the McCourty twins and former Patriot/current Ram Aqib Talib (who truly is a gem to listen to) stole the show, with barely a whisper from the Patriots’ leading pass-catcher this season. Yes, that’s right; White has 87 catches this season on a team-leading 123 targets. OH, and he also leads the team with seven receiving TDs on the year. The only receiving category he didn’t lead the team in was receiving yards – a stat in which he still finished second, only behind Edelman.

Let’s also not forget about the fact that White converted on six different third-down opportunities in the AFC Championship against Kansas City, helping to keep some very important drives alive in a game that the team won by less than a touchdown. Everyone wants to talk about Rex Burkhead’s and Sony Michel’s four total touchdowns, but White was a big reason why they were even in a position to punch the ball into the endzone in the first place.

There’s also a very misleading narrative out there which makes it seem as though White is solely a “third-down back,” meaning he is only capable of providing receiving ability out of the backfield while being useless as a “traditional” ball-carrier. That’s not only entirely untrue, but it’s also just unfair to a man who averaged 4.5 yards per carry in 2018 and has finished with a YPC over 4.0 in four-of-his-five NFL seasons.

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Contrary to popular belief, this man can actually handle the rock, too.

FURTHERMORE, he was asked to carry the ball a career-high 94 times this season – after averaging just over 30 total totes in his previous three campaigns – and he increased his YPC by 0.5 yards, setting another career-high. On the year, he compiled 1,176 yards of total offense with 12 TDs. At the very least, he’s a top-three candidate for team MVP this season, regardless of position.

And while his postseason averages of 5.3 receptions and 43.9 yards per game may not jump off the page, he has been THE GUY the team has turned to in the biggest moments. In 2015, he was targeted 16 times in the AFC Championship loss against Denver. I already mentioned how key he was to the victory over the Chiefs last week, and even in last year’s heartbreaker against the Eagles, White touched the ball 13 times and punched in a score.

He also had one of the single greatest performances in NFL history against the Falcons in the Super Bowl two years ago – and I’m sorry, but Brady likely still only has four rings to his name without No. 28 on the field that day. In that game, White had 14 catches for over 100 yards with three total scores, two of which were on the ground, plus a two-point conversion. And just a quick note about those scores: one of which was the game-winner in overtime. He now holds the record for most individual points scored in a Super Bowl with 20. Even after all of that, HE STILL DIDN’T WIN THE GAME’S MVP AWARD. (No disrespect to Brady, who won the award and led the epic comeback. But come on!!! There’s no way it shouldn’t have gone to White. Brady even said so himself.)

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He fought for that game-winner, too! That wasn’t an easy score!

No matter what, though, this man just keeps chugging along without a complaint in the world. Seriously, when is the last time you heard something, good or bad, from James White? In fact, maybe that’s a big part of the reason why he’s never really in the limelight. Part of it could totally be by choice, which I completely respect.

BUT, I just had to say something, James. Especially considering how important this game is, there’d be no better way to cement yourself, once and for all, as one of the very most important players to ever don the Patriot colors than with another epic performance this Sunday. And even if it’s not another typical big-game showing out of you, any true Pats fan knows you’re one the main reasons why we’re even here in the first place.

Much love, No. 28. Much love.

Breaking Down the Super Bowl Odds and Prop Bets

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Each week throughout the season, we’ve provided our 300s faithful with detailed game previews along with weekly lines. But truthfully, we haven’t spent much time breaking down spreads or betting odds perhaps as much as we should have.

But that’s all changing now, as there is no more fun time of year to wager a little dough than during the Super Bowl.

The reason why it’s so fun is because of all the prop bets (aka “proposition bets”). Basically, these are bets which allow you to make guesses on what can sometimes be the most obscure things – all the way down to what color Gatorade will be poured on the winning coach – for no reason other than pure degenerateness. (Yes, I’m making up that word.)

Before we get into those, though, here’s a quick overview of the important game info and lines that everyone usually cares about:

  • Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta, GA)
  • Kickoff: Sunday, Feb. 3, 6:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS
  • Spread*: Patriots -2.5 / Rams -2.5
  • Moneyline*: Patriots -115 / Rams +130
  • Total*: 56.5 (total)

(*All of the information is courtesy of Odds Shark and updated as of Thursday, January 31.)

First and foremost, if you can get the Pats at -2.5, TAKE IT. That half-point difference is huge, because that means they only need to win by a field goal. For what it’s worth, I like the Pats in this one, so I’d be all over them and that spread. (I know. I know. BIG SURPRISE, right??) As far as the total, I’m very torn; both teams are capable of playing great defense, but they also both have two of the best offenses in the league. Gun to my head, though, I’m taking the over. Who wants to root for a low-scoring, boring Super Bowl anyway?

All right, now let’s get into the fun stuff. Here’s a list of some (but certainly not all) of the best prop bets you can take a stab at for Super Bowl LIII, again courtesy of Odds Shark:

(Side note: Rather than bog you down with the money line for each and every bet, which you can check in the link above, I’m instead going to talk in broad strokes about each one along with which way I think you should go.)

Length of the National Anthem

This is usually one of the more popular ones each year. This year, it will be sung by the legendary Gladys Knight, and the over/under is set at 1:47. The all-time record for the longest rendition of the classic tune is held by Alicia Keys, after her epic 156.4-second performance in 2013. (That’s over two-and-a-half minutes.) On the flip side, Kelly Clarkson lasted just over a minute-and-a-half the year before. Keys was also using a piano during her performance, and perhaps that helped her drag it out a little. Knight – another soulful, powerful voice – might be able to use those pipes to belt out some long notes, but I bet she just barely finishes under the mark. The pick: under.

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What you got in store for us, Gladys?

Coin Toss

This is literally a 50/50. And regardless of what others try to tell you, past history has absolutely ZILCH to do with it. I’m honestly just spitballing here. The pick: heads.

How Many Times Will Broadcast Mention Sean McVay’s Age?

For those who don’t know, Sean McVay is the Rams 32-year-old head coach, who is now in his second year running the team. It’s actually pretty insane to see how much success he’s had so far, as most guys aren’t even lucky enough to get their first coordinator gig after only just entering their third decade on Earth. The fact that he’s going against the 66-year-old Bill Belichick – who’s been coaching in the league for over a decade longer than McVay has even been alive – is something that the network will OBSESS over, ad nauseam. The over/under is set at 1.5, so they literally only need to say it more than once for the over to hit. This might be the easiest prop bet of the night. The pick: over.

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What Will Be the Predominant Color of Adam Levine’s Top at the Halftime Show?

Again, some of those prop bets are just absurd, but what the hell? I’ll bite. It’s also pretty much a 50/50 choice, as the options are “black” or “any other color.” A quick Google search shows that Maroon 5’s leading man LOVES wearing black shirts. But, this is the freakin’ Super Bowl. You gotta show out! Plus, he’ll probably want to prove all the haters wrong, as I’m sure they are fully expecting him to wear the same old thing. The pick: any other color. (BONUS BET: You can also bet on whether or not he’ll be wearing a hat. I don’t think I’ve ever seen the dude wearing one, so I’m going to go with “no.”)

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See, it’s happened before.

How Many Songs Will Be Played at the Halftime Show?

The over under is set at 7.5. I couldn’t really find any stats on the average amount of songs played per halftime show in the past, and every artist is different. At first, I thought 7.5 seemed like too many. HOWEVER, Maroon 5 will be joined by both Big Boi AND Travis Scott, who will both also want some shine on their stuff as well. I’m going to say it’s a bunch of short clippings from all three. The pick: over.

OK, now it’s time to step away from the silly stuff and talk about some bets that involve the actual action on the field.

Will a Non-QB Throw a Touchdown?

This is usually a very easy “no” in most NFL games. But this isn’t just “any” game, and these aren’t just “any” two offenses. McVay and Josh McDaniels are two of the best and brightest offensive minds in the game right now, and they’re going to throw everything they’ve got out there in this one. Still, I don’t think either will get quite that cute with it. The pick: no.

Will Any QB Throw for 400 or More Yards?

Jared Goff is not throwing for over 400 yards. He’s just not. Not against this defense. Not on any planet. I’m not saying Goff’s a slouch, and he’s actually surpassed the mark two different times this season. But he’s not doing it on February 3. Bank on it. But what about Brady? Well, he’s actually already done so twice in the Super Bowl; he had 466 yards against Atlanta in 2017, and he passed for over 500 (!) yards against the Eagles last year. The Rams have a really good defense, though, and they kept Drew Brees and the Saints’ high-powered attack at bay last week. The pick: no.

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The kid isn’t going gangbusters on us in this one.

Will Either Team Not Punt During the Game?

This is an interesting one. Again, these are two top-five offenses this year, and the Pats were money on that side of the ball last week in Kansas City. Los Angeles, however, wasn’t quite as spectacular, and they have a 24-year-old QB playing on the biggest stage in the world. And even as good as the Pats have looked lately, I don’t think either side will be flawless in this one. The pick: no. (Be careful here; the bet is asking if any team will “NOT” punt during the game. Semantics, people!)

Will Both Teams Combine to Score 76 or More Points, Breaking the Super Bowl Record?

I did say earlier that I like the over in this one, but 76 is a bit much. Both teams would need to score into the 30s, or at least one would need to score well into the 40s to hit the mark. As good as these offenses are, the defense on both sides is no joke. The pick: no.

Will There Be a Penalty for Roughing the Passer?

With everyone outside of New England being up in arms about the ticky-tack roughing the passer called against the Chiefs at the end of the game last week, OF COURSE this would be a prop bet. The fact that Rams defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh is playing in this game ups the chances of this happening by at least 50 percent, but in truth no quarterback is averaging more than 0.36 RTP calls per game against them this season. It really does not happen as much as people think. The pick: no.

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Perhaps no player in the game has taken more cheap shots on opposing passers than this A-hole. But, with so much on the line, maybe he’ll actually behave himself in this one.

Then there are a bunch of scoring-related prop bets which can technically be based upon research, but they’re really more of a crapshoot than anything else. But, just for kicks, here’s a quick rundown of my picks for some of those bets:

  • First TD scorer for the Pats: Sony Michel
  • First TD scorer for the Rams: Brandin Cooks
  • Total TDs combined: Over 6.5
  • Total successful field goals: Under 4.5
  • Team to score longest TD (in terms of yards): Rams
  • Will a special teams or defensive TD be scored: No

And finally…

SUPER BOWL MVP

As much as I’d love James White to win it after getting ROBBED of the award against the Falcons two years ago, or for Rex Burkhead to win it and give me some shred of vindication for predicting him to be the team’s offensive MVP this season, I’m instead going with none other than Tom Brady. (I know. BOORRINNGG.) The man is the whole reason we’re even here, and with the Patriots relying on so many different pieces to keep the offense moving, it almost makes too much sense. Brady goes for 380 yards and four TDs, helping him become the ONLY man to win six rings. (Wooo! I just got the chills.) The pick: Tom Brady.

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This ain’t his first rodeo, guys.

And that still doesn’t cover everything, but hopefully it’s a nice little primer for you as you get set to make your picks for next weekend.

Be sure to stay tuned to the 300s all the way up until kickoff next Sunday for all the best Pats coverage you can find!

Are Kansas City Fans the Worst Fans in Sports?

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Obviously, it’s not fair to call out all Kansas City sports fans after one jackass broke out a laser pointer at a football game. That being said, “Are Boston Fans the Worst Fans in Sports?” would be the headline we’d all be seeing today had a fan in Gillette Stadium pointed a laser at Patrick Mahomes Sunday night. The NFL would investigate. The government shutdown would end so that a congressional investigation could be launched. ESPN would suspend regularly scheduled programming to endlessly cover it for two weeks up until the Super Bowl.

The sports media castigated Boston sports fans after a Chiefs player got beer thrown at him in October. Will we hear the same condemnation of Kansas City fans after a fan pointed a laser at Patriots players? A week after they threw snowballs at Indianapolis Colts players? Don’t hold your breath.

I’m not condoning what the Patriots fan did in October. Throwing objects at athletes is unacceptable. Fans who throw objects at athletes are morons and should get tossed. But pointing a laser at an athlete while on the field of play seems a bit more serious.

While I don’t want to see LASERGATE, I do hope the Chiefs and the NFL find the fan responsible for this incident and punish them accordingly. Spectators who point lasers should be punished at least as harshly as spectators who throw objects on the field. Neither is acceptable behavior at a sporting event.

A Patriots spokesman told the Boston Herald the team had no comment, but was aware of the news. Smart move. I hope the Patriots stiff arm this story and move on. There’s no need for them to get caught up in another bye-week sideshow. I only post it here in case the Worldwide Leader doesn’t get to it.

Patriots “We’re On to Atlanta” AFC Championship Postgame Reaction and Quick Hits

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I’mma let the Kekambas start this one off tonight:

For the third year in a row, and the NINTH time in Brady’s career, the Pats are back in the Super Bowl after what was an all-time game for the ages. No, but seriously, that game was almost indescribable – a complete roller coaster that had me experience pretty much every human emotion possible, especially in the second half.

While the Pats rolled out to a 14-0 lead, holding one of the greatest offenses the game has ever seen to zero points and just 32 yards of total offense at the half, things changed significantly over the last 35 minutes. Not only did the Chiefs increase their yardage output eight-fold in the second half (they finished with 290 total yards), but the Pats offense also slowed down significantly, starting off with a punt, field goal, failed fourth-down conversion, and an interception on their first four drives after halftime. In the meantime, the Chiefs scored three touchdowns and were up four with about eight minutes left to play.

There was also a muffed punt, ANOTHER interception by Brady, multiple back-breaking penalties on both sides – including a few complete B.S. calls, or missed calls (cough*that missed illegal pick by the Chiefs on Sammy Watkins’s TD*cough) – and THREE scores over the final 2:06 of regulation, including two within the final 42 seconds. Seriously, it would take an entire 1,000-word piece just to detail the insanity that was the fourth quarter.

All that matters is that Thomas Edward Patrick Brady, Jr. proved once again (for the 567,589,732th time) why he is the greatest player to ever step onto the gridiron. He not only lead two scoring drives in the final eight minutes of regulation, but that opening drive of overtime was a thing of beauty – one that saw Brady convert on three different third downs of 10 or more yards, before Rex Burkhead’s game-winning score.

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Red already hit ya with a little postgame piece earlier tonight, but here’s a few more takeaways for all you out there in Pats Nation as we celebrate deep into MLK Day:

  • I usually hate giving individual awards to a group of players, but there’s no doubt that the Pats’ offensive line has been the team’s offensive MVP this season. It seems like every week I wax poetic about the big boys in front of Brady, but it’s because they are literally playing out of this world. They held the league’s No. 1 pass-rush to ZERO sacks, and Brady was hurried just ONCE on the night. Even with Aaron Donald and his 20.5 sacks set to square off against us in two weeks, I am not scared one bit. How could I be? This might be the best Patriots offensive line I’ve ever seen in my 29 years of living. Actually, no – it IS the best, no questions asked.
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We wouldn’t be here without these guys this year, plain and simple.

  • A lot of people may want to hop all over cornerback J.C. Jackson for what looked like a horrendous night BUT two things: 1) that P.I. he was called for at the end of the game was complete and utter BULL, and 2) he was asked to cover Travis Kelce one-on-one on multiple occasions, for what reason I have NO idea. The undrafted rookie has actually been fantastic this season, grabbing hold of the starting job opposite Stephon Gilmore midway through the season and coming up big on multiple occasions. For what it’s worth, he wasn’t as bad as some may think tonight. He’s going to be a good player here for a long time.
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Don’t worry, kid, I’m still on your side.

  • And let me set the record straight: the defense was NOT bad tonight; they held the third all-time scoring offense to less than 300 total yards. Even more impressive was the fact they held Tyreek Hill to just one catch. Bill Belichick is a master of neutralizing the opponent’s No. 1 weapon, and he did so once again on Sunday, double-covering the speedster all evening and making him pretty much invisible. Kelce also only had three catches for 23 yards. (And remember, these two combined for 190 catches and over 2,800 yards this season!!!) This man is a master schemer, and this secondary is playing absolute lights out.
  • On the other hand, Kyle Van Noy actually had a much worse game than people think, and he’s been getting away with some pretty lackluster play at times this season. Yes, he makes nice plays here and there, but he also absolutely whiffed on multiple tackles tonight, including what should have been two more sacks on Mahomes. He also couldn’t cover a defensive tackle stuck in molasses in pass coverage. Again, he’ll have a nice sack here and there, but if it weren’t for our stellar secondary and solid D-line, this defense would be in trouble.
  • As pointed out by Red already, the team’s running game came up huge again. Sure, none of Sony Michel, Rex Burkhead, or James White averaged more than 3.9 yards per carry, but they ALL came up big when it counted: two TDs a piece for both Michel and Burkhead; SIX first-down conversions for White; no turnovers; and 176 rushing yards overall. Burkhead even received four targets to White’s six in the passing game. This is a really solid three-headed monster which will keep a solid L.A. defense on its toes down in Atlanta.
  • Finally, I gotta give it up to Patrick Mahomes. That kid is ICE COLD, in a good way, and he will be running the league for years to come once TB12 hangs ’em up for good. Seriously, this kid is a monster, and there is no way he should be hanging his head after this one.

But again, all that matters in the end is that WE’RE GOING BACK TO ANOTHER FREAKIN’ SUPER BOWL. Man, this just does NOT get old.

Be sure to stay tuned to The 300s for all your Patriots pre-Super Bowl coverage – including our soon-to-be-officially-announced LIVE podcast!

Patriots Chiefs AFC Championship Preview, Odds, and Predictions

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For only just the fourth time this decade, the AFC Championship will not be held at Gillette Stadium. And, for the very first time ever, the game will be held at legendary Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City – long said to be one of the loudest, craziest, and toughest venues to play in throughout the entire NFL.

Some are also saying it could be a symbolic changing of the guard were the Chiefs to win, as 41-year-old Tom Brady – the man, the myth, the legend, the G.O.A.T. – is set to square off against 23-year-old NFL phenom Patrick Mahomes – the young hotshot (and likely MVP) who posted 5,097 passing yards and 50 touchdowns in his first year as a starter. Perhaps not since a young Tom Brady has a signal-caller burst onto the scene so quickly and with such force, and now they’re set to face each other for a chance to win a title. How poetic.

The game will also feature two top-five offenses, which both averaged well over 3.5 touchdowns per game in 2018 and are loaded at pretty much every position on that side of the ball.

On defense, it’s a bit of a different story. Both teams finished in the bottom third of the league in total defense this season, even though the Pats have given up six less points per game. This, coupled with the explosive offenses on both sides, might lead many to believe we’re in for a shootout; however, most reports are predicting single-digit temperatures at kickoff, which is obviously going to affect both teams’ ability to move the ball.

This one is gonna be fun.

Before we get into the preview, here’s a look at when, where, and how to watch the game along with the latest lines:

  • Location: Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, MO)
  • Kickoff: Sunday, Jan. 20, 6:40 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS
  • Odds (via Odds Shark): Patriots: +3 (spread) / Patriots: +145 (moneyline) / 55.5 (total)

For the first time this season, the Patriots actually have a plus sign in front of the spread on their side of the line; that’s because this is the first time, in 17 games this season, that the Pats are the underdog. It is not the first time they’ve ever been a dog in the postseason; in fact, it has happened seven times during the Brady/Belichick era. But most of those games came early on in the run, during TB12’s younger days, as the Pats have been the favorite all but ONCE in their other playoff games since 2006. It’s important to note, though, that the team is 1-4 in their last five road playoff games.

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Things didn’t go so well the last time the Pats played on the road in January.

But rather than continue to get caught up in numbers and past history, let’s instead take a look at who these two teams are this season.

Again, while I did say last week that Los Angeles might have the most talented roster from top to bottom in the AFC, there’s no doubt that Kansas City’s offense is simply unmatched. Anyone who’s paid attention at all to the NFL this year knows just how prolific Mahomes has been, but the Chiefs also feature three other First Team All-Pros on offense (four in total, including Mahomes) and averaged a silly 35.3 points per game in 2018, good for third all-time.

Those other three players are wide receiver Tyreek Hill, tight end Travis Kelce, and offensive tackle Mitchell Schwartz. Hill and Kelce form perhaps the most lethal WR/TE combo in the game right now, as they both combined to total 190 catches, 2,815 yards, and 22 touchdowns on the year. (WHAT???!!!) Those numbers are truly unbelievable, in every sense of the word.

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Seriously, what a freakin’ combo these two are.

Hill also torched the Pats the last time these two teams played, in Week 6, to the tune of 142 yards and three scores. His pure speed is almost superhero-esque, as he has routinely been clocked at speeds of 20-23 miles per hour (as a human being), and no matter whether the Pats choose to bracket him or not, this man can do some damage. No matter what.

Fortunately, the Pats have been great against tight ends this season, finishing eighth in DVOA against the position. They also held Kelce to just five catches and 51 yards back in October. Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, and Duron Harmon will be tasked with keeping him at bay once again, and there’s no reason to believe they won’t with how strong they’ve played all season.

And while many would expect the Chiefs running game to have crumbled after losing Kareem Hunt, they’ve actually been just fine without him. While partly due to injury, which has kept him out the past four games, Spencer Ware has not been as effective as the team hoped in Hunt’s stead. But, Damien Williams – a former Dolphins disappointment – has been reborn in Kansas City; since Week 13, when he was finally given the chance to play meaningful minutes, the 26-year-old has averaged 5.3 yards a carry and four catches per game. He’s also coming off a 154-yard, five-catch, one-score performance against the Colts last week. So, yeah, the Chiefs can still run the ball, too.

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Williams is playing the best football of his life right now.

As pointed out in last night’s podcast, the Pats have actually put up more yards of total offense over the past six games (2,523) than the Chiefs (2,466), so there should be no doubt that they can keep up, especially against Kansas City’s lackluster defense. The only thing that can stop either side is the weather, which I do believe will be a factor.

Now, let’s get into some storylines and matchups to watch out for:

(Neutralize the Pass-Rush): For as much flak as Kansas City’s defense gets, they have a pretty good trio of pass-rushers in Justin Houston, Dee Ford, and Chris Jones. Ford (13 sacks in 2018) and Houston (a former All-Pro with nine sacks in just 12 games this year) are known commodities, but Jones exploded onto the scene this year with 15.5 QB takedowns of his own. We’ve talked at length about how good the Pats O-line has been this year, and they completely shut down Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa last week. They’ll have their hands full again in this one, though.

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Impending free agent, Dee Ford, is going to be playing for his next contract in this one.

(Another Prime Spot for Sony): I said that Sony Michel would need to have a big game last week for the Pats to win, and he did just that with 129 rushing yards and three scores. He’s a big reason why the Pats were able to dominate time of possession, and he’ll need to do that again this week to keep the ball away from Mahomes and the rest of the Chiefs attack. Before last week, the Chiefs were giving up an average of 164.2 yards on the ground to opponents in the five games prior, and the rookie did have 106 yards and two scores against Kansas City in Week 6. Hopefully the kid steps up big once again on Sunday night.

(OH, and The Other Backs, Too): “Big Game James” White came to play when it mattered most once again, with 15 catches last week, tying an NFL postseason record for running backs. He’ll likely be relied upon once again to move the chains on short passes out of the backfield against a team that struggles mightily against the short-to-intermediate passing game. Rex Burkhead could also be called upon to share the load as well to keep the Chiefs guessing. Theoretically, the Patriots offense could actually run entirely through the running back corps on Sunday night, with a heavy dose of Julian Edelman sprinkled in as well – pretty much exactly the offense they ran to beat L.A. last week. (The Chiefs are also terrible against tight ends, so maybe we see good old Gronk helping out a bit as well. This is as good as spot as any for him to do so.)

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Perhaps one of the most underrated players in Patriots history, White will be called upon once again in K.C.

Prediction

It’s going to be cold, it’s going to be a battle, and it’s going to result in the Patriots going to yet another Super Bowl. Maybe it’s recency bias; maybe it’s because we got a guy named Tom Brady; or maybe it’s because I really just want it to happen. Regardless, I say the game remains close until late in the second half, when the Chiefs start to fade and Belichick out-coaches Andy Reid in the big moments with the game on the line. The Pats will take it 27-20 and head to Atlanta to try and secure ring No. 6.

Is Yesterday’s Patriots Win a Dead Cat Bounce?

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The Dolphins beating the Patriots with a Miami Miracle in Week 14 was a dead cat bounce. The Steelers beating the Patriots 17-10 in Week 15 was a dead cat bounce. The Vikings beating the Lions in Detroit in Week 16 was a dead cat bounce. That was not what we witnessed in Foxboro yesterday afternoon.

Of all that was said, written and Tweeted about the Patriots in the last 24 hours, this might be the most ridiculous.

What we witnessed in Foxboro yesterday was the systematic dismantling of a very good football team. The Patriots absolutely manhandled the Chargers. Tom Brady completed 34 of 44 pass attempts for 343 yards. Sony Michel rushed the ball 24 times for 129 yards and three touchdowns. Julian Edelman looked the best he’s looked all season and caught nine balls for 151 yards. James White caught 15 balls for 97 yards.

The Patriots defense held Philip Rivers to 25 of 51 on pass attempts. He did throw for 331 yards and three touchdowns, but much of that damage was done late in the fourth quarter when the game was already out of reach.

This is not to say that the Patriots will beat Kansas City on Sunday. It will be a very tough game on the road against a team that has already demonstrated that it can handle playoff pressure in the elements. But don’t tell me that the Chiefs are going to run the Patriots out of the building. That’s not going to happen. This will not be a repeat of September 29, 2014.

The Patriots may be underdogs on Sunday, but they’ve got a chip and a chair. Time and again, they’ve shown us that’s all they need.

 

REAL TALK: Gronk is Now Basically an Offensive Lineman, and That’s OK

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Once one of the most dominant pass-catchers the game has ever seen, it appears as though Rob Gronkowski is quickly nearing the end of the line.

Not only has this been apparent from just the eyeball test alone, but rumors that he is once again considering retirement resurfaced yesterday as well – even though Gronk tried to downplay everything after the team’s victory over L.A.

Even the numbers don’t lie, though; since his misleading eight-catch, 107-yard performance against Miami in Week 14, here’s how it’s gone for Gronk ever since:

  • Week 15 (at Pittsburgh): 100% snaps played; 5 targets; 2 catches; 21 yards
  • Week 16 (vs. Buffalo): 79% snaps played; 1 target; 0 catches; 0 yards
  • Week 17 (vs. New York Jets): 81% of snaps played; 2 targets; 2 catches; 24 yards
  • AFC Divisional Round (vs. Los Angeles Chargers): 93% snaps played; 1 target; 1 catch; 25 yards

OH, and he’s also scored a total of zero touchdowns since the game down in Vice City as well.

There’s much more to take away from those numbers, though, besides simply saying that “Gronk looks cooked.” As a consistent, big-play, receiving target? Yeah, maybe he is cooked in that regard. But Gronk’s still played over three-quarters of the snaps – or more – for the past month, and Bill obviously isn’t going to keep him in there if he’s not providing something for the offense.

And that “something” that he provides has been excellent blocking up front. He’s basically been acting as a sixth offensive lineman for much of his time on the field lately, and it’s working.

This is not to say Gronk hasn’t been used as a blocker before; he’s actually been one of the game’s premier blockers at the tight end position throughout his whole career. However, the rate at which he’s been used as a blocker as opposed to a receiver has increased significantly. In 13 games last year, Gronk ran a passing route on 90.3 percent of his snaps, receiving 105 total targets; in 13 games this year, he’s been asked to go out for a pass on just 77.8 percent of his plays and has seen just 72 targets.

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This guy has been getting it done on the line for years.

The numbers. don’t. lie.

It should also be noted that the Pats’ rushing offense, which finished 10th in the league last season, jumped all the way up to fifth in 2018. Some may try to point out that we didn’t have Sony Michel last year, but we did have a guy named Dion Lewis, who averaged a pretty damn solid 5.0 yards per carry in 2017. So, no, it’s not all because of Sony Michel. (Yes, new addition Trent Brown and the rest of the O-line has played exceptionally well this year, too, so it’s not all Gronk. But still.)

Even Brady himself couldn’t stop from gushing about the big fella after yesterday’s game (h/t 247 Sports):

“Yeah, he’s a great blocker,” quarterback Tom Brady said after the win. “I think that’s something that goes maybe a little under the radar with his skill set, but he’s one of the most dominant blocking tight ends in the league. Again, he’s a threat when he catches it. Just did such a great job there to start the third quarter. He’s a threat any time he’s out there.”

And, as I pointed out in yesterday’s postgame piece, his epic block on Sony Michel’s 40-yard second-quarter run was the whole reason that play was even possible:

It might be hard to get a great view of No. 87’s stone-walling at first, but watch the bottom center-to-left corner of the screen, and you’ll eventually see the Chargers’ Kyle Emmanuel (No. 51) looking like an overpowered otter trying to swim upstream in the rapids. He had NO CHANCE of touching Sony on that play, and it was all because of Gronk.

He then did it again, to the same poor soul, on Rex Burkhead’s touchdown run just three plays later:

Of course, the Patriots are better with a healthy Gronk as the All-Pro tight end he used to be, but they certainly aren’t as desperate as some make it out to be without him. The team has averaged over 407 yards of offense (!) over the past four contests; the sky ain’t falling, folks. Relax.

In a season during which it’s been easy to hop all over Gronk for his “poor” play, I had to give the man the shine he deserves when doing the little things we don’t always catch during the flurry of action on the field.

You’re still a huge part of this team, Gronk. And if the team is going to be hoisting up that sixth banner next season, it certainly won’t happen without you on the field.

 

Patriots Chargers “We’re Going to the AFC Championship!!!” Postgame Reaction and Quick Hits

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Like clockwork, the Pats are heading back to the AFC Championship – for the EIGHTH. STRAIGHT. YEAR. (It’s also the THIRTEENTH time that Tom Brady is playing in the penultimate game of the season; that’s six more than the guy with the second-most championship game appearances all-time, Joe Montana, who has seven.)

So maybe I was entirely wrong about the whole “this is gonna be a close one” thing. But if you thought the Pats were going to hang over 40 points today, or beat the Chargers by almost two scores, you’re either a psychic or just outright lying.

Besides scoring some garbage-time second-half points, the Chargers were absolutely dominated in this one from start to finish, on both sides of the ball. They couldn’t stop the Patriots from doing anything they wanted to on offense, and the Pats D was in Philip Rivers’s face ALL DAY, sacking him twice and pressuring him on what seemed like almost every dropback.

And once Rivers gets flustered, it’s usually all downhill from there. While the guy is tough as nails and has put up some pretty impressive numbers in his career, he can easily fly off the handle. (Seriously, though, I’m surprised he didn’t actually take flight with how much he was flapping his arms around on Sunday.)

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This man has always been a bit of a hot-head.

The fact that the Pats also won the time of possession battle by over sixteen minutes (!) also demonstrates just how much they controlled the whole game. (That means they literally held the ball on offense for more than an entire quarter more than Los Angeles did.) They were able to do so behind an excellent performance from Sony Michel on the ground (129 yards, 3 TDs) – if you may recall, I said earlier this week that Michel would be this game’s X-factor – along with the tried-and-true short-passing offense, which was highlighted by a 15-catch effort from James White.

Also, Julian Edelman was phenomenal. His nine catches and 151 yards helped the Pats move the ball even further down the field, and he is now second all-time in postseason catches, only behind the legendary Jerry Rice.

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Old Faithful showed up to play again on Sunday.

Phillip Dorsett and Chris Hogan contributed as well, with seven combined grabs, but this game was about four guys: Brady, Edelman, White, and Michel. Period.

Stephon Gilmore and Jason McCourty held it down in pass coverage. Trey Flowers, Adam Butler, and Adrian Clayborn all dominated up front as well, not only constantly getting in Rivers’s face but also by holding the Chargers’ running game to just 19 measly yards. (Yes, much of this had to do with game script, as L.A. only ran the ball a total of 10 times. But still, they were able to stonewall Melvin Gordon, who averaged a pathetic 1.7 yards per tote on nine attempts.)

Unlike in years past, however, the Pats are not going to be playing the AFC Championship at home. Instead, they’ll be heading out to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs. That game will kick off at 6:40 p.m. next Sunday night. And that one will not be as easy. You can take that to the bank.

But, before we turn our attention to next weekend’s showdown at Arrowhead, here’s a few more quick notes from today’s victory:

  • People will be quick to point out that Rob Gronkowski was pretty much non-existent in this one. He wasn’t even targeted until late in the second quarter, and he finished with just one catch. BUT that run he had after that one catch resulted in 25 yards and a few steamrolled Chargers defenders. Even more importantly, he was still a vital part of the offense due to his excellent blocking; he laid a huge block at the line of scrimmage on Michel’s big 40-yard run in the second quarter. So, while he may not be as much of a threat in the passing game anymore, the man is still an absolute beast in short spurts.
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You may not be what you once were, but I know how important you still are to us, big guy.

  • Speaking of blocking, hats off all around to the offensive line. As I pointed out in my preview on Friday, this was a potentially life-changing game for impending free agent Trent Brown, who was tasked with taking on Melvin Ingram for much of the game. You know, the Melvin Ingram who is supposed to be one of the league’s top pass-rushers and the man who looked like Lawrence Taylor last week against Baltimore? Or how about Joey Bosa, who’s supposed to be the Chargers’ superstar up front but finished with one tackle and literally NOTHING else on the day? I honestly cannot believe how well the Pats were able to COMPLETELY scheme those two out of the game on Sunday. But they sure did. Boy, did they ever.
  • After being touted as one of the Pats’ biggest offseason acquisitions, Adrian Clayborn has been a major disappointment all season, finishing the year with just 2.5 sacks and 11 total tackles. He sure showed up to play today, though, with three QB hurries and a sack. Especially in a game where the team was without Deatrich Wise, who is dealing with an ankle issue, Clayborn stepped up big time.
  • For as much as Rivers made it look like the refs weren’t calling anything all day, the Pats were actually called for an alarming nine penalties, resulting in 75 yards. As has been pointed out before, this has been a really bad habit that the team has gotten itself into lately, and it’s just really surprising from a Bill-Belichick-coached team. It didn’t end up hurting them too much this afternoon, but they can’t do that again next week in Kansas City.

Feel good about this one, Pats Nation, but do not let this taint your view of what lies ahead. The Chiefs killed a red-hot Colts team on Saturday, and it is not going to be easy next Sunday night. (No, but I really mean it this time.)

Be sure to stay tuned to The 300s all week for all the coverage you need leading up to the big game!

BREAKING: Dolphins Reportedly Stealing Away Brian Flores

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Right in the middle of getting geared up for this weekend’s divisional round showdown, Pats Nation found out late this afternoon that they’re reportedly about to lose one of their own.

NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport first broke the news this afternoon:

It has since been corroborated by guys like Bert Breer, one of the industry’s leading talking heads:

First and foremost, congrats to Brian Flores, who is getting his first crack at running an NFL team at just 37 years old. Truly. This could be the opportunity of a lifetime. The trend in the league lately seems to be hiring fresh faces as opposed to falling on bad habits and recycling older, failed former coaches. With guys like Sean McVay (32) killing it out in Los Angeles, and others like Kliff Kingsbury (39, Arizona) and Matt LeFleur (39, Green Bay) being hired as first-timers just this week, I guess the news shouldn’t be so surprising.

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The young hotshot certainly started quite the trend.

Since first coming to the Pats as an assistant in the scouting department in 2004 – after a pretty solid career as a linebacker at Boston College – Flores has continued to ascend at a rapid pace, making his way onto the team’s coaching staff just four years later. He’s worn many different hats over the past decade, but he finally got his real shot at glory when he was given the responsibility of calling the defensive plays this year after Matt Patricia bounced to Detroit.

The fact that he’s only been in such a prominent position for such a short period of time makes the move even more interesting. But, in truth, he was even being looked at as a candidate by some teams last offseason, and his defense did allow the seventh-least amount of points per game in the league this year (20.7). And, again, teams around the league seem to finally be flouting the idea of “experience over everything,” and instead seem willing to roll the dice on newer guys with new ideas.

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Seems like teams are finally learning to leave guys like Ole Jeff in the dust.

To be honest, though, the news has got to be a bit deflating to guys around the locker room right now. Here you are zoning in on the first postseason obstacle facing you in just two days, and you learn that one of your coaches is likely off to sunnier skies next year – win or lose.

Now, it is important to note that nothing is official yet. Flores has yet to sign any contract or issue any public statement regarding the news – and likely won’t say anything at all until, at the very least, next week – but the writing seems to be on the wall. He’s heading to South Beach.

I want to be clear that I am not criticizing him for taking the role, if he so chooses, and I really am happy for him. The timing is just a bit of a bummer – but, as they say, that’s showbiz, baby!

I’m sure, though, as a Belichick disciple, he knows how to ignore the noise and still get the boys ready for the Chargers on Sunday. We’ll be just fine. I’ll stop raining on the parade.

Congrats to Brian Flores. I’m just sorry that I have to hate you now.