Tag: New England Patriots

Patriots Chargers Playoff Preview and Things to Watch For

By on • ( 2 Comments )

Image result for brady rivers

The 300s Dream Team already hit you with a Pats/Chargers preview podcast yesterday, but ya boy Mattes is here with a little bit of a deeper dive into what to expect on Sunday.

It seems like Pats Nation is banking on the fact that this game is in Foxborough, a place where the Pats are undefeated in their last nine playoff contests, winning each of those games by an average of over two touchdowns (15.8 points to be exact). In fact, it’s been over half a decade since they’ve lost at Gillette in January, as the team hasn’t been defeated in a playoff matchup at home since 2012 against Baltimore.

There’s also the fact that Philip Rivers has beaten the Patriots just once in his career. The 37-year-old Chargers signal-caller also owns an overall record of 5-5 in postseason play, with an 11-to-9 TD-to-INT ratio. So, he’s pretty much been just as good as he has been bad when playing after the regular season ends.

But anyone who’s taking this matchup lightly is foolish. I’m not saying the Chargers will win, but I am saying they probably have the best chance of doing so of any home playoff opponent that Brady’s ever faced in his career (or at least over the past few postseasons). The Chargers feature the league’s 11th-ranked offense and the ninth-ranked defense, possessing the ability to hurt you in many different ways. I’ve said it a few times already that this might be the most talented roster, pound for pound, in the AFC right now – yes, even more talented than Kansas City.

Image result for los angeles chargers

Seriously, these guys are GOOD.

On offense, it all starts with Rivers, who truly may be the best quarterback to never win a Super Bowl. While a great argument can be made that such an honor should instead go to Dan Marino, Rivers is top-eight all-time in both passing yards and touchdowns, and he will likely surpass Marino in both categories as long as he plays for at least another 2-3 years. He also chucked it for over 4,300 yards and 32 scores this season. His postseason track record may be pretty average, but his career clock is ticking, and he could come out guns blazing on Sunday.

Image result for philip rivers

His No. 1 receiver, Keenan Allen, finished the year with 97 catches and almost 1,200 yards. He’ll prove to be a tough matchup, even for an All-Pro like Stephon Gilmore. (Although Allen might actually see more coverage from Jason McCourty due to the fact he plays over 50 percent of the time in the slot.) Guys like Mike Williams (10 TDs in 2018) and Tyrell Williams are a nice pairing behind him, and the Chargers are bringing back tight end Hunter Henry this week as well. Though Henry hasn’t played since last December due to an ACL tear, he was a second-round pick in 2016 and did have 12 touchdowns in his first 29 career games; he gives Rivers just one more weapon in the arsenal for Sunday, especially down in the red zone.

The team’s stable of backs may be even more impressive. Melvin Gordon was a top-three running back over the first half of this season, before being slowed by injuries toward the end of the year. As a result, the Chargers were forced to work with backups like Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson much more than expected. But they never skipped a beat, as all three backs have averaged over 4.1 yards per carry this season, with each also flashing as a receiver, posting over nine yards per catch. (Actually, both Gordon and Ekeler averaged over 5.0 yards per carry this year.) All three will be used against the Pats on Sunday, making it impossible for Bill to zero in on eliminating the opponent’s top weapon, like he usually does.

Image result for melvin gordon austin ekeler

Everyone wants to focus on Melvin Gordon, and rightfully so. But Ekeler (above) can’t be slept on either.

On defense, L.A. is completely stacked, with two First-Team All-Pros in the secondary and two ferocious pass-rushers up front. While they may be a bit weak at linebacker, the Chargers are absolutely loaded in both the front and back ends of the D, finishing ninth against both the pass AND the run in 2018. They’re also particularly good against tight ends and the short passing game – literally the Patriots offense in a nutshell.

So how do the Pats match up with L.A.? What can our boys do to counteract the Chargers’ fire power? Here’s my rundown of what to watch for on Sunday.

(All About the Secondaries): Both the Chargers and the Pats feature one of the league’s top defensive secondaries, with three combined First-Team All-Pro players across both rosters. (Cornerback Stephon Gilmore for the Patriots; safety Derwin James and cornerback Desmond King for the Chargers. AND let’s not forget about Casey Hayward, who was a Second-Team All-Pro at corner for the Chargers last year. I told you, these guys are loaaadeddd.) Even outside of them, both teams have plenty of other Pro-Bowl-worthy talent at both the safety and cornerback positions as well. In fact, the Chargers are so loaded back there that they used at least seven d-backs on 58-of-59 defensive plays last week against the Ravens. And they did so with tremendous success, holding Lamar Jackson to less than 30 yards passing through the first three quarters. But again, the Pats have also been a stalwart against the pass; since the bye week, the Pats have allowed a paltry 206.6 yards through the air in those six games. They’ve also held guys like Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger to 250 passing yards or less when facing off against them this year, ending any argument that “we just haven’t played good quarterbacks lately.” Both teams will absolutely live and die by their secondaries on Sunday.

Image result for derwin james

The rookie, James, has been sensational this season.

(Sony Could Be the X-Factor): As I said above, according to the numbers, the Chargers have been equally as good against the run as they have against the pass this year. But there’s no doubt that, much like the Pats, they are severely lacking over the middle of the defense. Especially after their second-leading tackler, Jatavis Brown, was placed on I.R. this week, Sony Michel could do some damage on Sunday if he reaches the second level. Of course, James, the Chargers’ leading tackler, will be back there waiting as well, along with S/CB/LB hybrid Adrian Phillips, who had the third-most takedowns on the team. Michel will also need to get past the Chargers’ fearsome front four, which is no easy task either. But if the Pats can rely on the rookie to help grind out the clock, keeping the ball out of Rivers’s and his talented supporting cast’s hands as much as possible, the team could be OK on Sunday.

(Big Game for Brown and the Boys Up Front): According to NFL Next Gen Stats, the Patriots had the third-best pass-block win rate of all of this year’s playoff squads. We’ve mentioned before that the O-line has been a major strength for the team this year, with pretty much everyone playing well at all five spots. The Chargers also totaled just 38 sacks on the year as a team, good for just 19th in the league. But you cannot forget about Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, who have combined for 54 sacks over the past three seasons – and let’s not forget that Bosa missed half of this year due to injury. Ingram also had seven tackles and two sacks just last week, giving him plenty of momentum heading into this weekend. With Trent Brown set to become a free agent at the end of the season, he could literally make or break his next contract depending on well he protects Brady’s backside in this one.

Image result for trent brown

We’re gonna need you this week, big fella.

Just a few more quick notes:

  • As mentioned above, the Chargers defense has absolutely dominated tight ends this season, finishing No. 1 overall in DVOA against the position. Brady should be able to spread the ball around well enough to combat L.A.’s strength against the short passing game overall, but don’t expect a big game from an already-ailing Rob Gronkowski on Sunday – like maybe at all.
  • After missing the season finale, Cordarrelle Patterson is back. Devin McCourty and Deatrich Wise are also expected to be OK after injury scares two weeks ago. Besides some lingering ailments throughout the roster, the Pats are expected to play with a full squad on Sunday.
  • In the playoffs, experience matters, and Sunday will mark Bill Belichick‘s 40th career playoff game as a coach; Anthony Lynn is heading into his second. It will mark the biggest discrepancy in playoff games (40-2) and playoff wins (28-1) in NFL history, according to Elias (h/t ESPN Boston).

Prediction

This is going to be a battle, and that 15.8-point average margin of victory in recent home playoff games is going to go down a bit. Not only that, but with both defenses being so good, this should be a lower-scoring game. (Don’t take the over!!!) With the Chargers being much more loaded on offense, though, they’ll be up by a score at halftime, before the Pats tighten up in the second half. Then, it’ll be a fight to the finish line, with the Pats punching in a late score, barely giving them the edge. In what will be the Pats’ most difficult divisional round test in years, they’ll scratch and claw their way to a 21-20 victory.

Shawne Merriman Opens His Big Mouth and Gives Patriots Bulletin Board Material for Sunday

By on • ( Leave a comment )

Image result for shawne merriman

Former Chargers linebacker and walking human chest muscle, Shawne Merriman, is at it again.

On Monday’s episode of FS1’s “The Herd,” the 34-year-old – who is out of football and now apparently involved in clothing design, bare-knuckle fighting (which Red blogged about), and NASCAR – guaranteed that the Los Angeles Chargers, who haven’t beaten Brady ONCE in his career, would come in and beat the Pats in Foxborough on Sunday (h/t Patriots Wire):

“They’re a lock for me this week,” Merriman said. “The Patriots, yeah, you have Bill Belichick, you have Tom Brady there, but they’re not the same team they were in the past. They’re just not. They don’t bring that kind of stamp to the field anymore. I know they’ve been in the playoffs, they have the experience. But this Chargers team right now, they’re the most resilient team in football.

“They’ve been through so much. Injuries and the move and people not really paying attention to them and they just use all of it as fuel. Going out there is going to be no different. Them winning on the road, it hasn’t been a problem this year. They’ll go right into Foxboro, it will be competitive, it will be a good game. In the past, the Patriots have always found ways to win. Not this time, I don’t think that’s the case.”

I’ll start by saying that I believe the Chargers do actually have a shot of winning on Sunday, perhaps more than any previous Patriots home playoff opponent in the past two decades. They might be the most talented squad, up and down the roster, in the entire AFC, and their pass-rushers could give Brady fits this weekend. (Much more to come on all of that, and more, in this week’s preview.)

But for Merriman to be that certain is laughable. A lock? He’s banking on a quarterback with .500 career playoff record and a young defense that still has yet to prove themselves on the biggest stage. Also, the game is in New England, and the Pats will have had had two weeks to rest up. Oh, and “yeah,” Shawne, we do still have “Belichick and Brady there.”

Nothing would be sweeter than beating the Chargers on Sunday and seeing a shot of a sour-pussed Merriman somewhere in the stands. And hopefully, all 53 guys run out to mid-field after its over to do the “Lights Out” dance – just like the “classless” Patriots teams of the past (*he said with heavy sarcasm*). Right, L.T.??!!

Image result for ladainian tomlinson crying

Regardless, it’s safe to assume that Merriman’s words this week only further fueled and fanned the flames of a hungry, elder Thomas Patrick Edward Brady, Jr. In fact, I actually now feel better after hearing what he said.

Post this one up on the bulletin board, Bill!

The Patriots Need a Plan at Offensive Coordinator

By on • ( Leave a comment )

As Mattes blogged yesterday, Josh McDaniels will be staying with the Patriots for the 2019 season. To use McDaniels’ own words, “the book is closed” on interviewing this year. Who knows why; whether or not he decided to just stay another year or whether one of the jobs he coveted, such as the opening with Cleveland and Baker Mayfield, was looking like it would go someone else like Freddie kitchens and McDaniels didn’t want to be seen as a losing horse. Backing out in that situation is never a bad move.

Either way, the Patriots can’t continue to play this year by year. It just doesn’t make sense to not have a plan for when McDaniels does inevitably leave. And unlike 99.9% of the the big questions regarding the Patriots future, this one falls in the “regardless of Tom Brady” category. Brady or no Brady, when McDaniels steps away the Pats need a plan.

The obvious first question to ponder is whether or not this is one of those things that Belichick already has schemed up in his head but has never disclosed, as shocking as that is. It’s not like anyone has really ever asked him, to my knowledge, if he has a plan past Josh McDaniels’ tenure at the healm of the offense. Maybe there’s someone in the college ranks Belichick likes. Maybe there’s a coach in the NFL, possibly a football lifer in a lower coordinator or some sort of “special assistant” position, that he’s given the wink and the nudge to for when McDaniels leaves. There’s a distinct possibility that someone on the Pats current staff has been tabbed as the heir apparent. The latter makes possibly the most sense as the Patriots are known to promote from within (HR APPROVED!). Come to think of it, it wouldn’t shock me if Steve Belichick himself was vying for the job. I mean it does seem like the three things that guy loves is lacrosse, getting stoned in the Gillette parking lot, and football; football being something that has climbed to the top of that list as time has gone by.

On the other side of all these questions is McDaniels himself and his decision to stay. You kind of have to wonder why, right? Why two years in a row does it seem like he has his choice of jobs but decides to stay in a Coordinator position? Maybe the most logical reason would be that the Patriots have secretly told him that he was next in line for Belichick’s job. The “if and when” of Belichick’s retirement has more rumors attached to it than possibly any other storyline in football, and the team has come out before I believe and said McDaniel’s isn’t necessarily tabbed to be their next head coach, but that very well could be all smoke and mirrors.

Then there’s the fact that McDaniels has been here since 2012 and before that from 2001-2008. He has a family and so maybe he just wants to stay rooted. I mean, if we assume his kids are about a decade away from college then there’s no reason for him to not wait until his early 50s to be a head coach again, rather than uproot them now. He’d still be fairly young for that role being not yet 43 now. Lastly, and something Red and I discussed as a possibility, is the fact that maybe Josh McDaniels is simply shell shocked from his last time being a head coach. While his stint in Denver was not a without positives, it was far from a swimming success as well. Maybe he just chooses to stay at a job he is wildly successful in at an organization where he knows all the pieces and the operation cold. O and his QB is Tom Brady. There’s that.

Regardless, I hope both McDaniels and the Patriots have a plan for the future as right now we only have a plan for 2019. And, let’s face it, there’s about eight months until the beginning of next season, so that plan could change. The bottom line is that the “next era” of the Patriots, which we all are too afraid to talk about, is not just when this team moves on from Brady or Belichick. It would also be launched in part when we have to replace McDaniels and the rejuvenation he has brought to Brady’s career and the offense as a whole.

-Joey B

P.S: Anyone get that “close the book” is a reference to the Mafia and how they add names to the list of “made men”? McDaniels is such a weirdo.

The Packers Got Their Coach, and It Ain’t Josh McDaniels

By on • ( 1 Comment )

Image result for josh mcdaniels sad

The Green Bay Packers won’t be stealing Josh McDaniels away after all.

After interviewing with the team this past weekend in Wisconsin, there were rumors as recent as yesterday that the Packers were “planning on bringing him in for a second interview,” and one site went so far as to write a headline saying it was “increasingly clear” that McDaniels would become the new leader of the cheeseheads.

Then came this news:

So there goes that whole idea…

As a Pats fan, I’ll admit I am very happy. While McDaniels could still bolt somewhere this offseason – most likely Cleveland, if anywhere – this move makes it much less likely. And the fact of the matter is, this team is simply better with McDaniels here. Would we be cooked without him? No. And we’ve proven that before. But there has perhaps been no other coach with whom Brady has worked better throughout his career, and keeping McDaniels around in TB12’s twilight years could prove to be vital.

Again, we have no idea what will happen with this guy – especially after the B.S. he pulled last offseason. But for now, Josh isn’t going anywhere, or at least not to Green Bay.

Stay tuned…

(MAJOR BREAKING UPDATE: During his weekly presser on Tuesday, McDaniels came out and said that he will not be pursuing any other head-coaching jobs this offseason [h/t ESPN Boston]:

“The book is closed,” McDaniels said on his weekly conference call, when asked if he anticipates interviewing for any other head-coaching jobs this year. “It’s always a humbling experience to have an opportunity to interview with anybody for that position.

“I was thankful for the opportunity to meet with Green Bay; it always gives you greater insight into another organization of how they do things. It’s been very educational for me every time I’ve gone through it and I’ve appreciated every single one of them.

“I’m completely focused on the Chargers and our season and finishing it strong. And I’ll be here moving forward.”

McDaniels also already denied a chance to interview for the Bengals, and he apparently also said he’s had “no contact” with Cleveland, proving that the entire media hoopla surrounding head-coaching vacancies is nothing but smoke and mirrors.

But hey, we got Josh back. I’ll take it.)

Ending the Antonio Brown Patriots Trade Rumors Before They Even Begin

By on • ( 2 Comments )

Image result for antonio brown

Antonio Brown will not be playing for the Patriots next season. Period.

I’m here to let all of you know this now so that you’re not sitting there all offseason like a desperate high-school kid who heard about his longtime crush “having issues” with the douchey jock nobody likes, leading to delusions of grandeur and heartbreaking false hope.

Again: Antonio Brown is not going to be traded to the Patriots this offseason. Start to let that sink in now so you don’t get caught up in all the “Antonio Brown to the Patriots rumors” that the media will surely try and shove down our throats in the coming months.

Look, there’s no doubt that the Pittsburgh Steelers do not have the happiest of locker rooms right now. It all started with the Le’Veon Bell contract drama, and it’s all but certain that he’ll be playing elsewhere next season. Various sources have also claimed there’s some long-time beef and ill-feelings between Ben Roethlisberger and head coach Mike Tomlin, not to mention smaller rifts amongst other players and personnel.

And now, Antonio Brown is at it again. He was benched on Sunday due to skipping practices and allegedly getting in a public argument with Roethlisberger at practice last week. (So, no, his absence against the Benglas wasn’t due to a supposed leg injury).

Then, on Tuesday, Jason La Canfora of NFL.com reported that the 30-year-old receiver wanted out of the Steel City:

Many, including La Canfora himself, believe it’s all a bunch of hot air and that it’s very unlikely the Steelers give into his demands. But, hey, when there’s smoke there’s fire, and this certainly isn’t the first time Brown – or any Steelers player, for that matter – has expressed extreme frustration with the team or its still-somehow-employed head coach.

Image result for mike tomlin

Seriously, this guy is not a good coach.

But, even if the team does end up trading the receiver, it absolutely will not be to the Pats. I’ll tell you why.

First and foremost, Brown has an astronomical $22.2 million cap hit (!!!) for next season. Seriously, that number is BONKERS, and there is ZERO chance the Pats would be willing to pay anywhere near that much for pretty much anyone ever, let alone a 30-plus-year-old wide out. (He also then has two more years of $18-million-plus cap hits before hitting free agency as a 34-year-old in 2022.)

(UPDATE: Due to various – and often confusing – NFL/roster rules, acquiring Brown might not require his new team to pay the full $22.2 mill, but his contract is still probably too expensive for the Patriots’ liking.)

Secondly, we still don’t yet know exactly which direction Belichick & Co. want to take the roster this offseason. After offloading Brandin Cooks last year and letting guys like Danny Amendola and Dion Lewis walk, it would be surprising to see the team once again try and load up by going after older, expensive, big-name targets to pair with Brady – even though he desperately needs them. As I said they needed to do last week, the team may start looking more toward the future sooner rather than later, and acquiring Brown would seem to counteract that effort. Plus, I’d much rather see them use the money to lock down a guy like Trey Flowers, who is a free agent this offseason, for the long term.

Image result for trey flowers

Flowers is the future of the team’s D…if, of course, the team is actually willing to pay him.

Also, what happens if Brown comes here and Brady retires within the next 1-2 years? You think this guy would be content playing with anything less than a H.O.F.-level quarterback? No freakin’ way, man. No wayyyyy.

Finally, above all, I’m pretty sure the Steelers’ brass would rather hang themselves from the top of Heinz Field with a Terrible Towel before ever trading one of the game’s very best players to one of their biggest all-time rivals.  Unless the Pats were willing to give the Steelers their next half-decade’s worth of first-rounders and more, the Rooneys aren’t shipping him up here. Again: no freakin’ wayyyyy.

So, yes, while seeing A.B. in a Pats uniform would be a dream come true, I’ve already resigned myself to the fact that it’s just never going to happen – and you should, too. Sorry to break it to ya, Pats Nation.

Patriots Jets Postgame Reaction and Quick Hits

By on • ( Leave a comment )

Image result for patriots jets

Well, that one was a breeze. Just like I called it. The Pats took care of business against the Jets, 38-3, and are now heading into the postseason as the AFC’s No. 2 seed!

Before we get too giddy, you all know I’m here – per usual – to rain on the parade and bring us back down to earth a little bit. That’s not to say that I wasn’t happy with what I saw today; I do think there was a lot to like, especially on defense. BUT the running game didn’t have the greatest showing after their dominant performance last week. Also, the overall offense isn’t as good as a 38-point score might indicate. And I think it’s safe to say Gronk is nothing more than a chain-mover right now, at least for the rest of this season.

However, like I said, there was a lot to like from Sunday’s performance, too. Here are my takeaways from the Pats’ season finale:

(The G.O.A.T. Looks OK): I’ll just start by saying I liked how Tom Brady looked today. I’m not going to let his four touchdowns against a bad team lead me to believe he’s back to being vintage TB12, but he did complete over 70 percent of his passes. He also looked surprisingly nimble and mobile in the pocket all day. One play in particular stood out for me: After a pretty bad miss on what would have been an easy score to Chris Hogan in the first half, Brady made up for it on the very next play; not only did he elude a sack in the pocket, but he then rolled out to his right about five yards and fired an on-the-move, nine-yard strike to Phillip Dorsett for the score:

Again, there were some missed throws – AND let’s not forget the Jets were without their top-three cornerbacks once Buster Skrine was injured – but overall Brady looked pretty solid. Most importantly, though, he looked as healthy as he has in weeks.

(Still Shaky on Offense): This offense is not in a great spot. Much like in the early days of Brady’s career, this is a now a complete dink-and-dunk offense that is desperately lacking explosiveness. With Gronk being a shell of his former self and Josh Gordon no longer in the fold, it seems as though the team will again heavily employ the tried and true short-passing, timing-based scheme. I’m not saying it’s entirely ineffective; after all, the team did move the ball pretty well today, converting 45 percent of its third-down opportunities and winning the time of possession battle. But, when you’re down big in the playoffs and need some huge plays, who’s going to provide them?

(Welcome Back, Big Fella!): Why in the world was Danny Shelton a healthy scratch for three games in a row??!! Since he returned last week – after being sat for reasons we still haven’t been told – the team’s run defense has improved exponentially. In the three games Shelton was out, the Pats gave up 7.3, 9.0, and 6.3 yards per carry, respectively; in the two games he’s been back, he’s made three tackles and the team is allowing just 4.2 yards per tote. To be fair, Elijah McGuire, who carried the ball 18 times for the Jets on Sunday, is a backup and certainly no star. But, I don’t know, maybe we should keep big No. 71 in the rotation and give him another shot, huh, Bill?

Image result for danny shelton patriots

Don’t call it a comeback!

(All-Around A+ Effort from the D): The Pats defense was excellent in this one, at every level. Not only were they able to get pressure on Sam Darnold all game, sacking the rookie four times and forcing some pretty bad throws, but the secondary kept the Jets’ other playmakers at bay, too. Robby Anderson and Chris Herndon, who have both been on fire lately, were held to a total of four catches and 31 yards. OH, and the Jets as a team were also held to just a field goal. Trey Flowers was a beast for the Pats yet again, with a sack and a forced fumble, one of three strips for the Pats on the day. Again, I know it was the Jets, but the D came to play in this one.

A couple more quick ones:

  • Congrats to Derek Rivers on his first career sack! Expected to be a big part of the team’s D this year, the 2017 third-round pick has had trouble healing from last year’s injury and staying on the field this year. Hopefully this is the start of something good!
  • Keep your fingers crossed, Pats Nation. After being without Cordarrelle Patterson on Sunday already, the Pats also saw guys like Devin McCourty, Deatrich Wise, and Dont’a Hightower get banged up against the Jets. We don’t know much about what actually happened to them at this point – besides the fact that it was apparently a head injury for McCourty. Fortunately, the team has two weeks to heal up, but let’s hope none of these are too serious.
  • The team was able to keep the total amount of penalties to a tolerable four for 30 yards.

So, while this team is certainly not without its issues heading into the playoffs, their performance in the season finale at least inspires some hope. The team and its group of ailing players now get some extra time to rest before they kick off postseason play on Sunday, January 13 at 1 p.m in Foxborough. Against who, you ask? We won’t know until next Sunday afternoon.

Be sure to stay tuned to The 300s throughout the playoffs for all your Pats coverage. Let the “Blitz for Six” commence!

Patriots Jets Week 17 Preview, Odds, and Storylines

By on • ( Leave a comment )

Image result for patriots jets

The last game of the regular season has arrived. And, for the first time in a while, this one matters A LOT.

By this point, the Pats usually have a bye locked up, but depending on what happens on Sunday they could finish anywhere from the No. 1 to the No. 4 seed in the AFC this season. Therefore, they could either have: guaranteed home-field advantage throughout the playoffs; guaranteed home-field advantage for some of the playoffs; or only get to play at home just once (not to mention the fact that the last scenario would mean they would need to play a whole extra game as well).

(CBS Sports lays out all the playoff scenarios here for all you super nerds like me.)

But what it all comes down to for the Pats is this:

As long as they win, they are guaranteed to have at least one of the byes; if they lose, it’s going to be near impossible for that to happen.

Fortunately, we’re going up against a terrible New York Jets squad – who we already beat just a few weeks ago – and this time, it’s at home. Before we hop into the preview, though, here’s a look at where, when, and how to watch the game along with the latest lines:

  • Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, MA)
  • Kickoff: Sunday, Dec. 30, 1 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS
  • Odds (via Odds Shark): Patriots: -13.5 (spread) / Patriots: -730 (moneyline) / 44.5 (total)

The Jets (4-11) are really bad. I know I’ve called plenty of other teams bad throughout many of my previews this year, but I really mean it this time. The Jets have won just once since the middle of October and have given up an average of 29 points per game over that same period. They are also tied for the second-worst record in the league with Oakland and San Francisco.

Image result for jets suck meme

Rather than continue to throw a bunch of random stats at you or talk about Jets players to watch out for (are there even any?), I’m going to do it a bit differently this time around and simply focus on a few key things I’ll be keeping an eye on from Brady and the boys on Sunday.

(Can the Offense Keep it Going?): A lot of people were shocked to see the Pats put up almost 400 yards of offense against Buffalo, the league’s No. 2 defense, last week. Much of this had to do with an insane 273-yard rushing output, as the passing offense mustered up a pathetic total of 117. Ironically, this was after two games in which the ground game struggled, failing to crack 100 yards in Weeks 15 and 16, while the passing offense averaged 308 yards. My point is there is just ZERO consistency in this offense right now besides Julian Edelman, and that’s tough to maintain heading into postseason play. Is Cordarrelle Patterson healthy and will he remain the X-factor like he was last week? Has Sony Michel rediscovered his early-season success, and is he now ready to shoulder the team throughout January? I have no idea, but it’d be nice to see some sort of sense of direction from Brady & Co. by the end of the weekend.

Image result for sony michel

All right, kid, it’s time to earn that first-round money!

(How Injured is Brady?): Everyone knows by now that Brady and the team have not been very forthcoming regarding his injured knee. The team’s always been very secretive in that respect, but I feel like they’re really hiding something this time around. At times over the past few weeks, it has looked like Brady’s been operating purely off of sheer adrenaline and determination, but he’s no longer listed on the injury report and he insists he’s not hurt. Really, Tommy? Prove that to me this Sunday.

(Can the Secondary/Pass-Coverage Finish Strong?): Again, it’s really hard to pick out a “strength” for the Jets, but if it’s anywhere it’s probably in the passing game. Robby Anderson has averaged 104 receiving yards over the past three games, with a touchdown in each contest, as the young wide receiver is having a bit of a late-season resurgence. Chris Herndon has also sneakily been one of the game’s most consistent tight ends this season, and he put up a solid seven catches for 57 yards against the Pats when they played in November. (He also had six for 82 with a score last week against Green Bay.) Fortunately, rookie quarterback Sam Darnold will also be playing his first-ever game in Foxborough, and the Pats should handle whatever he throws at them. (Although Darnold has been excellent lately, with six touchdowns and one pick over his last three games.) Hey, I had to give the Jets something, right?

Image result for chris herndon

The Jets might actually have a nice, young piece in Herndon.

(Will the Boys Behave?): I touched upon this already in my postgame notes from Monday, but the Pats have been called for an average of over eight penalties a game throughout the past five contests. Yes, that number is significantly bumped by a crazy 14 penalties against the Steelers two weeks ago. But, even when removing that game entirely, the Pats have still been responsible for almost six flags a game. That’s not good at any point in the year, but that type of stuff will sink anyone – and quickly – during postseason play.

Prediction

The Pats will absolutely wallop the Jets. I have no doubt in my mind about it. With a bye on the line and playing against one of the dregs of the league, there’s just no way that we lose this one. And it won’t even be close. Kansas City will beat Oakland as well, and the Pats will head into the postseason as the No. 2 seed.

Buy or Sell: Tom Brady’s Plans to “Not only Play Next Year, but Beyond That”

By on • ( 1 Comment )

Image result for tom brady smile

As he does every week, Tom Brady spoke with his buddy Jim Gray of Westwood One on Monday – which also just so happened to be Christmas Eve – and gave Patriots fans what many of them may blindly believe to be the greatest gift they’ll receive this holiday season: his renewed commitment to playing for the long term.

When asked if he’d be playing next season, at the ripe age of 42, Brady said:

“I absolutely believe I will. I know I’ve talked about it for a long time: I have goals to not only play next year, but beyond that. I’m going to try to do it as best I possibly can. I’m going to give it everything I have, like I always have.”

In a vacuum, that quote sounds great. The winningest QB of all time saying that he’s not going anywhere, continuing to display the resolve of a lion refusing to give up his place as the alpha on the Serengeti? Talk about some much-needed motivation for a post-Christmas return to the office!

But, in reality, is what he said really a good thing?

Mattes! How could you??!! That’s Tom FUCKIN’ Brady! The G.O.A.T! The greatest thing to ever happen to the Pats, and possibly New England as a whole! SHAME! SHAME! SHAME!

Look, I’m not denying any of those things. Brady is arguably the greatest athlete in Boston sports history, and for all that he’s done he does deserve the chance to at least try to play as long as he possibly can.

However, the Pats cannot continue to blindly place all of their confidence in Brady’s determination and bravado, completely ignoring the fact that this is man who has already far exceeded the shelf life of most NFL quarterbacks. Yes, what he’s done so far is pretty damn impressive, but let’s also not forget that Brady is indeed still a human being.

Image result for tom brady god meme

OK, mayyybeee, he’s a bit more special than most humans.

As they say, Father Time always wins, and I believe we’re finally starting to see the old man get his licks in on the legend. Sure, Brady’s 4,105 passing yards and 25 touchdowns this year are still Pro-Bowl-worthy marks, but his 11 interceptions are also the most he’s had since 2013 and are two higher than his career average (with one game still left to play).

Sure. Maybe the 11 picks aren’t all that alarming on paper, but you can’t tell me there haven’t been times this year where you haven’t looked at the T.V. going: “Really, Tommy? What the HELL was that throw?”

All I’m saying is that whether it’s due to his old age, a supposedly “minor” knee issue, or the fact that the offense is in a state of flux, Brady hasn’t looked as infallible or fluid as usual, even being just one year removed from an MVP season. And I’m sorry, but no matter how many tofu cakes he consumes or how many tomatoes he refuses to eat, he’s not going to recuperate like he used to.

So, what are you saying then, Mattes??!! Do you really think we should get rid of Brady?!

NO! Not right now at least. But if we go another offseason without so much as giving a thought to life after Brady, I’m going to be pretty heated. I’m not too upset about them passing on Lamar Jackson this year at the end of the first round, but after trading Jimmy Garoppolo, the team has nothing in terms of future QB prospects.

To be fair, not many teams are lucky enough to have a guy waiting in the wings once a legend decides – or is forced – to hang ’em up for good. But the smart teams DO at least make an effort. The Colts made the tough decision to tank and move on from Peyton Manning in order to nab Andrew Luck. The Packers picked Aaron Rodgers, knowing it would piss Brett Favre off, and while Rodgers had to wait three years to finally get his shot, the Packers barely skipped a beat. Hell, the 49ers even traded Joe Montana in favor of Steve Young, and I’d say that one worked out pretty well.

Image result for lamar jackson

Hopefully, this one doesn’t come back to bite the Pats down the line.

The point is that a tough decision is going to have to be made soon. And, if we’re being entirely honest, it’s probably going to come down to the team forcing the player’s hand, because at this point I doubt Brady goes anywhere until he is literally physically unable to move.

But the Pats can’t wait that long. They can’t just sit around expecting 3-5 more years of greatness and then just, I don’t know, hope for the best? Because once Brady starts to slip, it’s likely going continue rapidly, as was the case with many before him. (And, like I said, I think we’re already starting to see it.) Or, even worse, as age and body ailments continue to mount, Brady is forced to suddenly retire, against his will and good intentions, leaving the Pats with absolutely ZILCH (and likely a very looooong rebuild).

And – I hope you’re sitting down for this one – if the opportunity comes along where a team is willing to part with a hefty amount of assets in order to bring in that one piece that will take them over the top, then the Pats shouldn’t hesitate to trade Brady.

I’m not saying to simply trade the guy for a first-round pick; he deserves better than that. And I’m not saying we should necessarily do it this offseason. But what if there’s a team out there that is willing to trade multiple draft picks and, say, a top-50 player who’s still in his mid-to-late 20s in order to acquire him? Bill & Co. would be foolish to not at least consider it.

Even outside of the QB position, the Pats have a dearth of young talent on the roster, and even with Brady right now, the Patriots are not the automatic AFC champions that they used to be. And continuing to place their full confidence on Brady’s lip-service and accolades alone could come back to bite the franchise in a big way once the TB12 era is all said and done.

So, I’m happy that still you love the game, Tommy, and I know that the day you’re no longer donning a Pats uniform will truly be one of the saddest of my life. But I’m also not ignorant, and it’s time for Pats Nation to take off those Brady-colored glasses and start looking toward the future.

Patriots Bills Week 16 Preview, Odds, and Storylines

By on • ( Leave a comment )

Image result for patriots bills

So these last two Sundays have been really disheartening. (And now Josh Gordon is gone, too! Let’s just keep piling it on!)

After a shocking loss in Miami and then a shameful defeat in Pittsburgh, the Patriots (9-5) are now sitting as the No. 3 seed in the AFC. And though they’re guaranteed to finish no lower than No. 4 as a division winner, Baltimore (8-6) and the Steelers (8-5-1) remain right on their heels. On the flip side, however, the Pats still do have a chance at a bye if they win out AND Houston were to lose to either the Eagles or Jags.

Either way, we’re not typically used to seeing such uncertainty in December, as the Pats being a top-two seed is usually a foregone conclusion by now. But things are different this year; the team just suffered two-straight December losses for the first time since 2002 and are now 3-5 on the road this season.

Now we get our second matchup of the year with a surprisingly decent Buffalo Bills squad. This time it’s at home, and this time the Bills have a much more talented – albeit more inexperienced – signal-caller leading the charge than they did the last time these two played just before Halloween.

But before we get into this week’s primer, here’s a look at where, when, and how to watch the game along with the latest lines:

  • Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, MA)
  • Kickoff: Sunday, Dec. 23, 1 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS
  • Odds (via Odds Shark): Patriots: -13 (spread) / Patriots: -755 (moneyline) / 44.5 (total)

Winners of three of their last five contests, the Bills have far exceeded my expectations this year. That’s probably because while their offense has still been pretty terrible, coming in at No. 31 overall, their defense has been absolutely nasty. Currently sitting at No. 2 overall, the Bills D has allowed just 187.4 yards per game through the air in 2018, tops in the league, and they are also the 10th-best team against the run. And since giving up 41 points to Chicago on November 4, the Bills have only allowed just over 18 points per contest in the five games since.

On offense, the Bills are a bit of an enigma, and it all starts with rookie quarterback Josh Allen. After spending the No. 7 overall pick in this year’s draft to select him, the Bills were without Allen the first time they played the Pats this season. But since returning just after Thanksgiving, Allen is 2-2 with over 1,150 total yards and seven scores.

Image result for josh allen

Allen is proving all the doubters wrong lately with his moxie and strong play.

Notice, though, that I said “total” yards; over 30 percent of those yards have actually come on the ground for Allen – with two 100-plus-yard rushing games – and he’s only completed 50 percent of his passes since making his return. So Allen can be a bit of a conundrum; while he won’t hurt you much in the air just yet, he does have the ability to do some damage with his legs.

The Pats have actually done a great job of containing mobile QBs this year; outside of the 81 rushing yards they gave up to Mitchell Trubisky out in Chicago, they’ve held others like Deshaun Watson (40), Patrick Mahomes (9), and Marcus Mariota (21) to relatively low numbers on the ground. Still, the Pats continue to be horrendous against the run overall, allowing opponents to average 5.0 yards per carry on the season and coming off of two straight in which they’ve given up over 150 yards on the ground. Allen, along with running back LeSean McCoy, who is expected back after missing last week’s game, could put up some serious rushing totals in Foxborough on Sunday.

Image result for lesean mccoy

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: do not sleep on this dude.

Fortunately, the Pats should be able to shut down the Bills air game with ease. As I said, Allen still has quite a ways to go as a passer, and besides this Robert Foster kid – who has come out of NOWHERE with three 100-plus-yard games (!) in the last month – the Bills have absolutely nothing at receiver. (No, really, it’s kinda sad.) The Pats also have a pretty stout secondary, and there’s the fact that a rookie QB has never beaten Belichick in Foxborough in the month of December.

All I’m saying is that Allen better put on his PF Flyers if he wants any chance of having success on Sunday.

Storylines

(What Does the Offense Do Now?): Things are looking pretty bleak for the offense right now. After a fool’s gold performance in Miami two weeks ago, Gronk went right back to looking worn out and put up a dud against the Steelers. Brady also looks off – and has for weeks – and now there’s speculation he might legitimately be hurt. Sony Michel has cooled off significantly after a hot start to his career, with James White and Rex Burkhead not really doing much behind him either. And today we find out that the Josh Gordon Experience is over in Foxborough, suddenly leaving the Pats without a true No. 1 outside receiver. Considering there’s two weeks left of regular-season play, they need to figure it out fast, and it all starts this week against one of the game’s top defensive units.

Image result for gronk sad

Yeah, Gronk, I agree. That’s pretty much exactly how I’ve been looking at my T.V. these past few Sundays.

(Will This Team Ever Stop the Run?): As mentioned above, the Pats have been one of the absolute worst teams against the run this year. They’ve given up over 115 rushing yards to four of their last six opponents (including three games in which they gave up over 150!). Dalvin Cook would’ve made it five-out-of-six if the Vikings didn’t stop giving him the ball a few weeks ago after he racked up over 90 rushing yards on just nine carries. So not only do I fear that the offense won’t be able to keep up in the playoffs, but the unit won’t even have a chance to get on the field if the Pats’ opponents can simply just run the clock out on them. This week is their last chance to prove their worth against the league’s ninth-ranked rushing offense.

Prediction

I know this preview seems a bit “doom and gloom,” but, come on, can you blame me? After these past two weeks? Also, I’m supposed to have confidence that this offense, in its current state, will blow doors on the second-best defense in the league? Furthermore, the Bills solid running game might actually allow them to hang around and dictate the pace of the contest. These Bills are also tough and pretty resilient; each of their past four games were decided by four points or less. The ONLY reason I am picking the Pats to win this week is because it’s in Foxborough, but it won’t be pretty. The Pats take it 21-17.

Patriots Steelers Week 15 Preview, Odds, and Storylines

By on • ( Leave a comment )

Image result for patriots steelers

This is the one we’ve all been waiting for.

While the Pats have played premiere squads like Houston, Chicago, and Minnesota this season, there’s no doubt that this weekend’s bout with the Steelers is the one that most have had marked on their calendars since September. Though Pittsburgh is in the midst of a three-game skid, they’re still one of the AFC’s most talented and dangerous squads, and these two teams always have memorable battles – often with huge playoff implications – what seems like every year now. And this year is no different.

At 7-5-1, Pittsburgh still sits atop the AFC North; their shot at a bye is likely gone, but with Baltimore nipping at their heels for the division title, they won’t be taking this one lightly.

Before we get to the preview, here’s a look at where, when, and how to watch the game along with the latest lines:

  • Location: Heinz Field (Pittsburgh, PA)
  • Kickoff: Sunday, Dec. 16, 4:25 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS
  • Odds (via Odds Shark): Patriots: -2 (spread) / Patriots: -132 (moneyline) / 52 (total)

It’s almost surprising to see the Pats favored in this one; the fact of the matter is the Pats have been a terrible road team this year, with a 2-4 record in games outside of Gillette. On the flip side, Pittsburgh is struggling a bit when playing in the Steel City this year, as they are 3-3 at home, surprising for a team that has typically had one of the strongest home-field advantages in the league in years past. The Pats have also won five straight against the Steelers, including the playoffs, but they barely escaped with a win in Pittsburgh last December on a very controversial overturned touchdown call late in the game.

Image result for jesse james td overturn

The fallout from this play dominated the sports talk air waves for weeks last winter.

Typically built entirely upon their offense the past couple of seasons, Pittsburgh has stepped it up big time on defense this year. That is not to say their offense, currently ranked fourth overall in the league, hasn’t still been great; it’s just that they also feature the league’s sixth-ranked defense against the run and are 12th against the pass. After struggling to run the ball against Miami’s putrid front last week, I’d leave Sony Michel, James White, and Rex Burkhead on your fantasy bench this week.

With two top-seven passing offenses, as well as a future H.O.F. quarterback and a lethal 1-2 combo at wide out on both sides, expect to see an air show on Sunday. As pointed out by Rotoworld’s Rich Hribar, the Steelers have also thrown the ball over 65 percent of the time since Week 6, the highest rate in the league, and with running back James Conner still being uncertain to play this week with an ankle injury, Big Ben might be forced to chuck it even more. However, Roethlisberger also injured his ribs this past Sunday against the Raiders, and while he should still play this week he could be a bit hindered. We shall see.

(SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: James Conner is out this week. That’s good news for the Pats and their pathetic run defense [seriously, it’s been awful]. Jaylen Samuels and old friend Stevan Ridley will handle the load for Pitt in Conner’s stead.)

Image result for brady roethlisberger

It’s always a sight to behold when these two square off.

It should also be noted that Gronk was basically the reason the Pats were able to beat the Steelers last year, absolutely dominating the stat line with nine catches for 168 yards. As I’ve pointed out numerous times this year, the big fella just doesn’t look the same lately, and the Pats might not have as big of an advantage heading into this game as they did a year ago.

Fortunately, though, we still have Bill Belichick, and the Steelers have Mike Tomlin. That’s probably the biggest chip the Pats will be playing with this weekend, and there’s no doubt which team holds the leg up there.

Image result for mike tomlin

Be sure to stay tuned for the always entertaining Tomlin postgame presser on Sunday night.

Simply put: we’re in for a fun one on Sunday.

Storylines

To be entirely honest, it’s tough to pick which of the many different factors that will affect this game to highlight here. Due the long history between the two teams, I could probably write an entire book on them. There are such questions as: Are Brady’s (knee) and Roethlisberger’s recent “minor” health issues going to rear their ugly heads at some point?; Has Gronk finally put his long list of nagging ailments behind him?; Will James Conner play, and if so, how much?; Can Stephon Gilmore and Jason McCourty continue their strong play against the likes of Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster? I think I already pretty much covered most of what you need to know above. I just CANNOT WAIT for Sunday afternoon.

Prediction

This one’s almost impossible to predict, as I really feel like it could go either way. One thing’s for sure, I think Vegas got it right this week; neither team is going to come out on top by much more than a couple points, at most. Due to the Pats’ struggles when traveling this year, I’m actually giving the slight edge to Pittsburgh. Especially if the team can’t establish anything on the ground, Brady’s going to need to eat his Wheaties for breakfast that morning if he wants to keep up with the Steelers’ high-powered O. In the end, I think the Pats suffer a heartbreaker, 31-27.