Tag: Patriots

Breaking Down the Super Bowl Odds and Prop Bets

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Image result for las vegas betting

Each week throughout the season, we’ve provided our 300s faithful with detailed game previews along with weekly lines. But truthfully, we haven’t spent much time breaking down spreads or betting odds perhaps as much as we should have.

But that’s all changing now, as there is no more fun time of year to wager a little dough than during the Super Bowl.

The reason why it’s so fun is because of all the prop bets (aka “proposition bets”). Basically, these are bets which allow you to make guesses on what can sometimes be the most obscure things – all the way down to what color Gatorade will be poured on the winning coach – for no reason other than pure degenerateness. (Yes, I’m making up that word.)

Before we get into those, though, here’s a quick overview of the important game info and lines that everyone usually cares about:

  • Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta, GA)
  • Kickoff: Sunday, Feb. 3, 6:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS
  • Spread*: Patriots -2.5 / Rams -2.5
  • Moneyline*: Patriots -115 / Rams +130
  • Total*: 56.5 (total)

(*All of the information is courtesy of Odds Shark and updated as of Thursday, January 31.)

First and foremost, if you can get the Pats at -2.5, TAKE IT. That half-point difference is huge, because that means they only need to win by a field goal. For what it’s worth, I like the Pats in this one, so I’d be all over them and that spread. (I know. I know. BIG SURPRISE, right??) As far as the total, I’m very torn; both teams are capable of playing great defense, but they also both have two of the best offenses in the league. Gun to my head, though, I’m taking the over. Who wants to root for a low-scoring, boring Super Bowl anyway?

All right, now let’s get into the fun stuff. Here’s a list of some (but certainly not all) of the best prop bets you can take a stab at for Super Bowl LIII, again courtesy of Odds Shark:

(Side note: Rather than bog you down with the money line for each and every bet, which you can check in the link above, I’m instead going to talk in broad strokes about each one along with which way I think you should go.)

Length of the National Anthem

This is usually one of the more popular ones each year. This year, it will be sung by the legendary Gladys Knight, and the over/under is set at 1:47. The all-time record for the longest rendition of the classic tune is held by Alicia Keys, after her epic 156.4-second performance in 2013. (That’s over two-and-a-half minutes.) On the flip side, Kelly Clarkson lasted just over a minute-and-a-half the year before. Keys was also using a piano during her performance, and perhaps that helped her drag it out a little. Knight – another soulful, powerful voice – might be able to use those pipes to belt out some long notes, but I bet she just barely finishes under the mark. The pick: under.

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What you got in store for us, Gladys?

Coin Toss

This is literally a 50/50. And regardless of what others try to tell you, past history has absolutely ZILCH to do with it. I’m honestly just spitballing here. The pick: heads.

How Many Times Will Broadcast Mention Sean McVay’s Age?

For those who don’t know, Sean McVay is the Rams 32-year-old head coach, who is now in his second year running the team. It’s actually pretty insane to see how much success he’s had so far, as most guys aren’t even lucky enough to get their first coordinator gig after only just entering their third decade on Earth. The fact that he’s going against the 66-year-old Bill Belichick – who’s been coaching in the league for over a decade longer than McVay has even been alive – is something that the network will OBSESS over, ad nauseam. The over/under is set at 1.5, so they literally only need to say it more than once for the over to hit. This might be the easiest prop bet of the night. The pick: over.

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What Will Be the Predominant Color of Adam Levine’s Top at the Halftime Show?

Again, some of those prop bets are just absurd, but what the hell? I’ll bite. It’s also pretty much a 50/50 choice, as the options are “black” or “any other color.” A quick Google search shows that Maroon 5’s leading man LOVES wearing black shirts. But, this is the freakin’ Super Bowl. You gotta show out! Plus, he’ll probably want to prove all the haters wrong, as I’m sure they are fully expecting him to wear the same old thing. The pick: any other color. (BONUS BET: You can also bet on whether or not he’ll be wearing a hat. I don’t think I’ve ever seen the dude wearing one, so I’m going to go with “no.”)

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See, it’s happened before.

How Many Songs Will Be Played at the Halftime Show?

The over under is set at 7.5. I couldn’t really find any stats on the average amount of songs played per halftime show in the past, and every artist is different. At first, I thought 7.5 seemed like too many. HOWEVER, Maroon 5 will be joined by both Big Boi AND Travis Scott, who will both also want some shine on their stuff as well. I’m going to say it’s a bunch of short clippings from all three. The pick: over.

OK, now it’s time to step away from the silly stuff and talk about some bets that involve the actual action on the field.

Will a Non-QB Throw a Touchdown?

This is usually a very easy “no” in most NFL games. But this isn’t just “any” game, and these aren’t just “any” two offenses. McVay and Josh McDaniels are two of the best and brightest offensive minds in the game right now, and they’re going to throw everything they’ve got out there in this one. Still, I don’t think either will get quite that cute with it. The pick: no.

Will Any QB Throw for 400 or More Yards?

Jared Goff is not throwing for over 400 yards. He’s just not. Not against this defense. Not on any planet. I’m not saying Goff’s a slouch, and he’s actually surpassed the mark two different times this season. But he’s not doing it on February 3. Bank on it. But what about Brady? Well, he’s actually already done so twice in the Super Bowl; he had 466 yards against Atlanta in 2017, and he passed for over 500 (!) yards against the Eagles last year. The Rams have a really good defense, though, and they kept Drew Brees and the Saints’ high-powered attack at bay last week. The pick: no.

Image result for jared goff scared

The kid isn’t going gangbusters on us in this one.

Will Either Team Not Punt During the Game?

This is an interesting one. Again, these are two top-five offenses this year, and the Pats were money on that side of the ball last week in Kansas City. Los Angeles, however, wasn’t quite as spectacular, and they have a 24-year-old QB playing on the biggest stage in the world. And even as good as the Pats have looked lately, I don’t think either side will be flawless in this one. The pick: no. (Be careful here; the bet is asking if any team will “NOT” punt during the game. Semantics, people!)

Will Both Teams Combine to Score 76 or More Points, Breaking the Super Bowl Record?

I did say earlier that I like the over in this one, but 76 is a bit much. Both teams would need to score into the 30s, or at least one would need to score well into the 40s to hit the mark. As good as these offenses are, the defense on both sides is no joke. The pick: no.

Will There Be a Penalty for Roughing the Passer?

With everyone outside of New England being up in arms about the ticky-tack roughing the passer called against the Chiefs at the end of the game last week, OF COURSE this would be a prop bet. The fact that Rams defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh is playing in this game ups the chances of this happening by at least 50 percent, but in truth no quarterback is averaging more than 0.36 RTP calls per game against them this season. It really does not happen as much as people think. The pick: no.

Image result for ndamukong suh

Perhaps no player in the game has taken more cheap shots on opposing passers than this A-hole. But, with so much on the line, maybe he’ll actually behave himself in this one.

Then there are a bunch of scoring-related prop bets which can technically be based upon research, but they’re really more of a crapshoot than anything else. But, just for kicks, here’s a quick rundown of my picks for some of those bets:

  • First TD scorer for the Pats: Sony Michel
  • First TD scorer for the Rams: Brandin Cooks
  • Total TDs combined: Over 6.5
  • Total successful field goals: Under 4.5
  • Team to score longest TD (in terms of yards): Rams
  • Will a special teams or defensive TD be scored: No

And finally…

SUPER BOWL MVP

As much as I’d love James White to win it after getting ROBBED of the award against the Falcons two years ago, or for Rex Burkhead to win it and give me some shred of vindication for predicting him to be the team’s offensive MVP this season, I’m instead going with none other than Tom Brady. (I know. BOORRINNGG.) The man is the whole reason we’re even here, and with the Patriots relying on so many different pieces to keep the offense moving, it almost makes too much sense. Brady goes for 380 yards and four TDs, helping him become the ONLY man to win six rings. (Wooo! I just got the chills.) The pick: Tom Brady.

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This ain’t his first rodeo, guys.

And that still doesn’t cover everything, but hopefully it’s a nice little primer for you as you get set to make your picks for next weekend.

Be sure to stay tuned to the 300s all the way up until kickoff next Sunday for all the best Pats coverage you can find!

Patriots May Be Hiring Greg Schiano to Take Over the Defense. Why?

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PFT – The Patriots are set to lose linebackers coach and de facto defensive coordinator Brian Flores to the Dolphins after the Super Bowl and that will make two years in a row that the team’s top defensive assistant has moved on for a head coaching job.

Per a report from the Senior Bowl, former NFL head coach Greg Schiano is a likely addition to the top of the defensive staff for the 2019 season. Schiano is in Mobile to talk to teams and NFL Media reports that “the spot that appears likely” is on Bill Belichick’s staff in New England.

Now this is just a rumor in the wind so we have no idea if it’s actually true or not, but we still wanted to blog about it because this would be WILDLY out of character for Bill Belichick. The man *always* promotes from within.

“While Schiano has never worked with Belichick, the Patriots coach has endorsed Schiano as a coach on more than one occasion since his son and current Patriots assistant Steve played for Schiano at Rutgers.”

Belichick likes to bring in young, smart guys and run them through the ringer until they either quit, move on, or become a football mind in his own mold. We very rarely see a big name come off the street to take over either side of the ball for Belichick. (Despite my downright mayoral campaign for the Pats to bring in former Oregon and Eagles and current UCLA head coach Chip Kelly to lead the offense….the pieces were all there!) Despite all that it never happened.

Just take a look at their last 5 defensive coordinators and their last 3 offensive coordinators (Bill has only ever had 3 OC’s in 18 years as coach of the Pats, that’s insane) and how long they had been with the team before. (Note: I am making a couple of assumptions here with titles since Brian Flores wasn’t technically the “defensive coordinator” he was still the man in charge of the Pats defense.)

Defensive Coordinators

  • Brian Flores (14 years)
  • Matt Patricia (8 years)
  • Dean Pees (2 years + bonus points for 3 years coaching at Navy)
  • Eric Mangini (5 years w/ Pats + 3 years w/ Jets + 1 year with Browns)
  • Romeo Crennel (3 years w/ Jets + 10 years w/ Giants)

Offensive Coordinators

  • Josh McDaniels (8 years)
  • Bill O’Brien (4 years)
  • Josh McDaniels (5 years)
  • Charlie Weis (3 years w/ Jets + 3 years w/ Giants)

And before you point to guys like Charlie Weis who didn’t have prior Patriots coaching experience under Belichick, Bill was the new HC in town and whats the first thing he did? Brought in guys he knew intimately from his time with the Browns, Jets, and Giants. Belichick has NEVER worked with Schiano at any level, which is why this is even more out of character. Maybe Bill sees the cupboards are bare and he can’t very well promote his son to defensive coordinator (yet) so why not bring in a guy he respects and at least in theory is on the same page philosophically. This is all before we even get into Schiano’s head coaching record at Rutgers (68-67) and his NFL coaching record in Tampa Bay (11-21).

Again it’s just out of character for Belichick, but as a man in his 60’s he may look around and see the well is dry as the rest of the league has come with a straw to suck any bit of water they can from that very well.

Or maybe, just maybe, this has been Belichick’s great white whale. After yearsss of drafting player after player from Rutgers, Bill finally gets his guy, the man who made it all possible; the former Rutgers head coach himself.

Patriots Absolutely DESTROY Rob Parker with One Amazing Tweet

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For much of the Brady/Belichick era, the Patriots have usually made a point of taking the high road, often choosing to disregard the “noise” and refusing to engage with those who take shots at them and their unparalleled success.

In fact, Belichick once even benched Wes Welker – who was coming off a 122-catch, 1,500-plus-yard season – for the first half of a playoff game against the Jets in 2011 for his little press conference comedy show a few days before. (Ya know, the one where he “subtly” pokes fun at Rex Ryan’s foot fetish. It was actually pretty hilarious. Here’s the link in case you need a refresher.)

But not this time. On Tuesday, the team itself tweeted out a video which eviscerates long-time Patriots hater and absolute joke of a “journalist,” Rob Parker.

For those of you who are unaware of who Parker is, here’s a quick rundown: He’s a former ESPN analyst – who was fired by the worldwide leader back in 2013 for, you guessed it, opening his big, ignorant pie hole. Now working for FS1, he will literally take any opening possible to dump all over Tom Brady and the Pats. He even goes so far as to call Brady the “L.O.A.T.” (“Luckiest of All Time”) – meaning he believes Brady’s entire career can be attributed to pure luck, and nothing more. Yup, the guy is unbearable to listen to, even on topics not involving the Pats. How he even got a job in the industry in the first place is truly mind-boggling.

Anyway, the tweet was posted in response to some pre-AFC-Championship comments Parker made on FS1’s “The Herd” last week:

Just fucking perfection – even all the way down to the wordplay on “reign” in the caption. Bravo, social media team. BRA-VO.

Stuff like this gets me even more amped up than I already am for next Sunday, and I’m sure it fires up the boys in the locker room, too.

So hopefully you really do take off to Mexico, Rob. Hell, I’ll even buy the plane ticket for ya. I doubt anyone will miss you and your “hot takes” anyway.

A Quick Word On Rex Burkhead

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So I know there has been enough Pats-related #content here over the last few days, weeks, and months to last a lifetime, but this has been kind of sticking on my mind. It’s one of those things where I figure that if it has stayed with me this long, maybe it is worth putting out there. Whatever the case I won’t be bashing Oprah or telling the story of the time a kid I loosely knew robbed a 7-11 so I’m guessing Red will publish it and maybe you’ll read it.

Rex Burkhead does not get a lot of ink. It’s fairly understandable why. For the most part, he is a “sum of the parts greater than the whole” type back that can spell Michel when he needs a breather during one of his packages and can do the same for James White in an identical capacity. He has also been hurt a bunch so his name just hasn’t come up a lot. With all of that said, he can do a lot of things and Brady seems to be able to trust him, which one could argue is more important to TB12 than skill, athleticism, etc., so he has become a fairly important part of our offense.

Then came the AFC Championship and the worst fucking 4th down run of all time and I was ready to let Rex Burkhead to be the scapegoat, to let he and he alone hold the L, as the kids say. I mean, sure it was a bad call altogether. One of those 1-2 a game that McDaniels has been guilty of all season, a puzzling abnormality that he seems to of picked up this year. Burkhead didn’t help though. Kevin Sorensen, who the Patriots made look like a cross between Ed Reed and Sean Taylor all fucking game even though he barely belongs on an NFL roster, was shooting the gap Burkhead was supposed to run in. He could have cut back and at least tried to churn behind his O-line and see what he could get. His vision failed him though (I’m not RB savvy enough to tell you if vision is always a problem for Burkhead) and Patrick Willis Sorensen form tackled him for a loss. It stunk to high heavens.

What did Rex Burkhead do? He shook it off. He basically acted like it never happened. He went on to make more than a couple of key plays, including the game-winning touchdown run, to force us to completely forget about that garbage run. He put his head down and “did his job” as the Patriots always require and it paid dividends. To be honest I think even without the win, we would have forgiven him after the way he closed the game out.

So hats off to Rex Burkhead, our favorite ‘Husker. We’ll need him two Sundays from now more than ever. Just cut back next time, ok?

The Patriots Are Going to Their Ninth Super Bowl With Tom Brady After Instant Classic AFC Championship

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Over an hour after the game I still have a heart rate somewhere near 200 beats per minute because that was the most stressful 4 hours of my life since February 2015 during the Patriots Seahawks Superbowl. My goodness. If I was wearing a Life Alert necklace there would be an ambulance on the way to my house right now because my heart rate is straight up unhealthy. As I said earlier tonight, this is no way to live….but I wouldn’t have it any other way.

Rob Gronkowski: Vintage like Merlot

He may not be putting up 9 for 160 and 3 TDs anymore, but this guy is still Tom Brady’s “gotta have it” guy. He is still a 6’6″ mammoth of a man with baby soft hands that can beat anyone one on one. As I mentioned on The 300s Podcast last week, the Patriots would need a vintage game from Gronk and thats exactly what we got with some key catches.

Julian Edelman is Logan

The man must have adamantium in his bones, there is no other explanation for how he can continuously take these massive hits. The guy just throws his back into 250 pound linebackers and gets up faster than I get out of bed after sleeping on my neck wrong. Incredible.

The Muffed Punt

If the Patriots go on to win the Super Bowl, the muffed punt that wasn’t will go down as one of the most insane moments in Patriots playoff history.

The Muffed Punt t-shirts are now on sale!

A play that likely would have sunk their season was overturned thanks to instant replay, despite the fact that the footage the referees were reviewing looked like found footage from an iPhone 4.

The Future

To the Chiefs I tip my cap, that was an absolutely incredible game. The future is yours, but like an older brother with the N64 clicker in hand; it’s still our turn.

AFC Championship Halftime Report

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Up 14-0 and 30 mins away from their third straight Super Bowl appearance, the Patriots have come out on fire. Aside from being up by 4 touchdowns, I don’t think the Patriots could have come out to start this game any better. Just as they did against the Chargers last week, the Pats got the ball first and set the tone from the get go with a long touchdown drive. As we had discussed on The 300s Podcast the other day, we expected a big day from Sony Michel as the Pats have morphed into more of a running team than they’ve ever been before. Thats not to say there haven’t been some issues though because the Pats have dodged a couple of bullets.

Tom Brady throwing into quadruple coverage like an asshole.

Eric Berry barely dropped another pick that would have been an incredible play, but again Brady and the Pats dodged a bullet.

Trey Flowers CAME. TO. PLAY. – Flower has been a monster all game pressuring Patrick Mahomes all day into some bad looks. The one standout play came when Mahomes gave back 3 points by taking an absolutely ugly sack on 3rd down to take the Chiefs out of FG position (again due to Flowers’ monster half).

The defensive front 7 as a whole has been incredible to start this game. Kyle Van Noy may be a bit of a liability in coverage, but he chased down Patrick Mahomes for a strip sack to end the half, nearly snagging another 3 spot for New England.

James White has made some *incredible* catches today (6 first downs on his first 6 touches) just a week after hauling in 15 balls against LA.

The Patriots, despite all the running back-ists on sports talk radio, are establishing the shit out of the run, which is exactly what I said they would need to do in order to win this game. You’re playing one of the most explosive offenses in the league that relies on big plays from their athletic freaks so hold the ball, eat up some clock, let those KC players sit on the sideline and freeze.

PHILLIP DORSETT WITH A HUGE TOUCHDOWN. For a guy that catches just about everything thrown to him, we asked on the podcast why not throw to him more then? Well, TB12 found Dorsett for a absolutely money 29 yard touchdown in the last 30 seconds of the half.

The Chiefs just got shutout in the first half at home for the first time under Andy Reid. The Patriots look excellent as these boys can smell the Super Bowl. It is now officially Neck. Stepping. Time.

 

The 300s Podcast: We’ll Do it LIVE

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The 300s will be taking a page out of the SNL playbook and for our first event we’ll be recording a LIVE podcast! So if you’re in the area you’ll have an excuse to grab some beers and see our handsome mugs at the same time. The date and location will be announced in the coming days as I hammer out the details. Now we just have to combine our collective brainpower together to somehow podcast, live stream, host, shoot video content, and drink all at the same time without starting an electrical fire. Stay tuned for more details!

Patriots Chiefs AFC Championship Preview, Odds, and Predictions

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For only just the fourth time this decade, the AFC Championship will not be held at Gillette Stadium. And, for the very first time ever, the game will be held at legendary Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City – long said to be one of the loudest, craziest, and toughest venues to play in throughout the entire NFL.

Some are also saying it could be a symbolic changing of the guard were the Chiefs to win, as 41-year-old Tom Brady – the man, the myth, the legend, the G.O.A.T. – is set to square off against 23-year-old NFL phenom Patrick Mahomes – the young hotshot (and likely MVP) who posted 5,097 passing yards and 50 touchdowns in his first year as a starter. Perhaps not since a young Tom Brady has a signal-caller burst onto the scene so quickly and with such force, and now they’re set to face each other for a chance to win a title. How poetic.

The game will also feature two top-five offenses, which both averaged well over 3.5 touchdowns per game in 2018 and are loaded at pretty much every position on that side of the ball.

On defense, it’s a bit of a different story. Both teams finished in the bottom third of the league in total defense this season, even though the Pats have given up six less points per game. This, coupled with the explosive offenses on both sides, might lead many to believe we’re in for a shootout; however, most reports are predicting single-digit temperatures at kickoff, which is obviously going to affect both teams’ ability to move the ball.

This one is gonna be fun.

Before we get into the preview, here’s a look at when, where, and how to watch the game along with the latest lines:

  • Location: Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, MO)
  • Kickoff: Sunday, Jan. 20, 6:40 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS
  • Odds (via Odds Shark): Patriots: +3 (spread) / Patriots: +145 (moneyline) / 55.5 (total)

For the first time this season, the Patriots actually have a plus sign in front of the spread on their side of the line; that’s because this is the first time, in 17 games this season, that the Pats are the underdog. It is not the first time they’ve ever been a dog in the postseason; in fact, it has happened seven times during the Brady/Belichick era. But most of those games came early on in the run, during TB12’s younger days, as the Pats have been the favorite all but ONCE in their other playoff games since 2006. It’s important to note, though, that the team is 1-4 in their last five road playoff games.

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Things didn’t go so well the last time the Pats played on the road in January.

But rather than continue to get caught up in numbers and past history, let’s instead take a look at who these two teams are this season.

Again, while I did say last week that Los Angeles might have the most talented roster from top to bottom in the AFC, there’s no doubt that Kansas City’s offense is simply unmatched. Anyone who’s paid attention at all to the NFL this year knows just how prolific Mahomes has been, but the Chiefs also feature three other First Team All-Pros on offense (four in total, including Mahomes) and averaged a silly 35.3 points per game in 2018, good for third all-time.

Those other three players are wide receiver Tyreek Hill, tight end Travis Kelce, and offensive tackle Mitchell Schwartz. Hill and Kelce form perhaps the most lethal WR/TE combo in the game right now, as they both combined to total 190 catches, 2,815 yards, and 22 touchdowns on the year. (WHAT???!!!) Those numbers are truly unbelievable, in every sense of the word.

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Seriously, what a freakin’ combo these two are.

Hill also torched the Pats the last time these two teams played, in Week 6, to the tune of 142 yards and three scores. His pure speed is almost superhero-esque, as he has routinely been clocked at speeds of 20-23 miles per hour (as a human being), and no matter whether the Pats choose to bracket him or not, this man can do some damage. No matter what.

Fortunately, the Pats have been great against tight ends this season, finishing eighth in DVOA against the position. They also held Kelce to just five catches and 51 yards back in October. Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, and Duron Harmon will be tasked with keeping him at bay once again, and there’s no reason to believe they won’t with how strong they’ve played all season.

And while many would expect the Chiefs running game to have crumbled after losing Kareem Hunt, they’ve actually been just fine without him. While partly due to injury, which has kept him out the past four games, Spencer Ware has not been as effective as the team hoped in Hunt’s stead. But, Damien Williams – a former Dolphins disappointment – has been reborn in Kansas City; since Week 13, when he was finally given the chance to play meaningful minutes, the 26-year-old has averaged 5.3 yards a carry and four catches per game. He’s also coming off a 154-yard, five-catch, one-score performance against the Colts last week. So, yeah, the Chiefs can still run the ball, too.

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Williams is playing the best football of his life right now.

As pointed out in last night’s podcast, the Pats have actually put up more yards of total offense over the past six games (2,523) than the Chiefs (2,466), so there should be no doubt that they can keep up, especially against Kansas City’s lackluster defense. The only thing that can stop either side is the weather, which I do believe will be a factor.

Now, let’s get into some storylines and matchups to watch out for:

(Neutralize the Pass-Rush): For as much flak as Kansas City’s defense gets, they have a pretty good trio of pass-rushers in Justin Houston, Dee Ford, and Chris Jones. Ford (13 sacks in 2018) and Houston (a former All-Pro with nine sacks in just 12 games this year) are known commodities, but Jones exploded onto the scene this year with 15.5 QB takedowns of his own. We’ve talked at length about how good the Pats O-line has been this year, and they completely shut down Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa last week. They’ll have their hands full again in this one, though.

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Impending free agent, Dee Ford, is going to be playing for his next contract in this one.

(Another Prime Spot for Sony): I said that Sony Michel would need to have a big game last week for the Pats to win, and he did just that with 129 rushing yards and three scores. He’s a big reason why the Pats were able to dominate time of possession, and he’ll need to do that again this week to keep the ball away from Mahomes and the rest of the Chiefs attack. Before last week, the Chiefs were giving up an average of 164.2 yards on the ground to opponents in the five games prior, and the rookie did have 106 yards and two scores against Kansas City in Week 6. Hopefully the kid steps up big once again on Sunday night.

(OH, and The Other Backs, Too): “Big Game James” White came to play when it mattered most once again, with 15 catches last week, tying an NFL postseason record for running backs. He’ll likely be relied upon once again to move the chains on short passes out of the backfield against a team that struggles mightily against the short-to-intermediate passing game. Rex Burkhead could also be called upon to share the load as well to keep the Chiefs guessing. Theoretically, the Patriots offense could actually run entirely through the running back corps on Sunday night, with a heavy dose of Julian Edelman sprinkled in as well – pretty much exactly the offense they ran to beat L.A. last week. (The Chiefs are also terrible against tight ends, so maybe we see good old Gronk helping out a bit as well. This is as good as spot as any for him to do so.)

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Perhaps one of the most underrated players in Patriots history, White will be called upon once again in K.C.

Prediction

It’s going to be cold, it’s going to be a battle, and it’s going to result in the Patriots going to yet another Super Bowl. Maybe it’s recency bias; maybe it’s because we got a guy named Tom Brady; or maybe it’s because I really just want it to happen. Regardless, I say the game remains close until late in the second half, when the Chiefs start to fade and Belichick out-coaches Andy Reid in the big moments with the game on the line. The Pats will take it 27-20 and head to Atlanta to try and secure ring No. 6.