Tag: Tom Brady

Just When I Thought the Patriots Were Out, They Pull Me Back In

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To paraphrase the great Vin Scully the Patriots are not only alive, they are well. As Dan Fouts said on the broadcast of yesterday’s game, reports of Brady’s (and the Patriots’) demise have been greatly exaggerated. While the 2018 Patriots team is not the steamroller that past teams have been, they still have a chip and chair. Looking around the table, there’s no one here they can’t beat.

That’s not to say the Patriots are the favorites. They’re not:

They’ll find out their divisional round opponent next week, and will host them on Sunday, January 13 at 1:05 PM. The Sunday game is a bit troubling, as the Patriots typically make better playoff runs when they open on a Saturday. Since 2001, the Patriots have always opened the playoffs at home and are 10-0 when opening the playoffs on a Saturday. They are 3-2 when opening the playoffs on a Sunday.

Prior to this season, the Patriots received first-round byes in 12 of their 15 playoff appearances since 2001. They have opened the playoffs at home after a bye week on a Saturday in nine out those 12 playoff runs. The Patriots won all nine of those Saturday night games. With an extra day of rest, they also went on to win the AFC Championship in seven of those nine seasons. The Patriots are just 1-2 in Brady Era AFC Championship games that come after a Sunday victory in the divisional round.

Still, it wouldn’t be shocking to see this team make a run. Would a Chiefs, Chargers or Texans slip up surprise anyone? The Ravens are 6-1 with Lamar Jackson at QB, but does anyone expect the Ravens to make a run with a rookie QB? Are the Colts with Andrew Luck the team to look out for? It’s the Anything Can Happen AFC!

I’d be just as hard pressed to predict who will come out of the NFC, but if forced to make a pick I would pick the Saints. Who ever comes out of the NFC, though, I’d have a hard time picking the Patriots to beat them in the Super Bowl. While it’s technically a neutral-site game and not a road game, I have a hard time seeing the Patriots going into a hostile environment and keeping up with the Saints (or Rams).

Of course I’d rather the Patriots be a 14-2 juggernaut heading into January, but this could still be a fun run to watch. While they’re not underdogs, they’re not the favorite either. With Brady 41 years old and Gronk possibly playing in his last few games as a Patriot, this could be last call for the Patriots Dynasty. If they could cap it off with another championship this year it might be the most impressive one, and most fun to watch.

Yet.

Patriots Jets Postgame Reaction and Quick Hits

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Well, that one was a breeze. Just like I called it. The Pats took care of business against the Jets, 38-3, and are now heading into the postseason as the AFC’s No. 2 seed!

Before we get too giddy, you all know I’m here – per usual – to rain on the parade and bring us back down to earth a little bit. That’s not to say that I wasn’t happy with what I saw today; I do think there was a lot to like, especially on defense. BUT the running game didn’t have the greatest showing after their dominant performance last week. Also, the overall offense isn’t as good as a 38-point score might indicate. And I think it’s safe to say Gronk is nothing more than a chain-mover right now, at least for the rest of this season.

However, like I said, there was a lot to like from Sunday’s performance, too. Here are my takeaways from the Pats’ season finale:

(The G.O.A.T. Looks OK): I’ll just start by saying I liked how Tom Brady looked today. I’m not going to let his four touchdowns against a bad team lead me to believe he’s back to being vintage TB12, but he did complete over 70 percent of his passes. He also looked surprisingly nimble and mobile in the pocket all day. One play in particular stood out for me: After a pretty bad miss on what would have been an easy score to Chris Hogan in the first half, Brady made up for it on the very next play; not only did he elude a sack in the pocket, but he then rolled out to his right about five yards and fired an on-the-move, nine-yard strike to Phillip Dorsett for the score:

Again, there were some missed throws – AND let’s not forget the Jets were without their top-three cornerbacks once Buster Skrine was injured – but overall Brady looked pretty solid. Most importantly, though, he looked as healthy as he has in weeks.

(Still Shaky on Offense): This offense is not in a great spot. Much like in the early days of Brady’s career, this is a now a complete dink-and-dunk offense that is desperately lacking explosiveness. With Gronk being a shell of his former self and Josh Gordon no longer in the fold, it seems as though the team will again heavily employ the tried and true short-passing, timing-based scheme. I’m not saying it’s entirely ineffective; after all, the team did move the ball pretty well today, converting 45 percent of its third-down opportunities and winning the time of possession battle. But, when you’re down big in the playoffs and need some huge plays, who’s going to provide them?

(Welcome Back, Big Fella!): Why in the world was Danny Shelton a healthy scratch for three games in a row??!! Since he returned last week – after being sat for reasons we still haven’t been told – the team’s run defense has improved exponentially. In the three games Shelton was out, the Pats gave up 7.3, 9.0, and 6.3 yards per carry, respectively; in the two games he’s been back, he’s made three tackles and the team is allowing just 4.2 yards per tote. To be fair, Elijah McGuire, who carried the ball 18 times for the Jets on Sunday, is a backup and certainly no star. But, I don’t know, maybe we should keep big No. 71 in the rotation and give him another shot, huh, Bill?

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Don’t call it a comeback!

(All-Around A+ Effort from the D): The Pats defense was excellent in this one, at every level. Not only were they able to get pressure on Sam Darnold all game, sacking the rookie four times and forcing some pretty bad throws, but the secondary kept the Jets’ other playmakers at bay, too. Robby Anderson and Chris Herndon, who have both been on fire lately, were held to a total of four catches and 31 yards. OH, and the Jets as a team were also held to just a field goal. Trey Flowers was a beast for the Pats yet again, with a sack and a forced fumble, one of three strips for the Pats on the day. Again, I know it was the Jets, but the D came to play in this one.

A couple more quick ones:

  • Congrats to Derek Rivers on his first career sack! Expected to be a big part of the team’s D this year, the 2017 third-round pick has had trouble healing from last year’s injury and staying on the field this year. Hopefully this is the start of something good!
  • Keep your fingers crossed, Pats Nation. After being without Cordarrelle Patterson on Sunday already, the Pats also saw guys like Devin McCourty, Deatrich Wise, and Dont’a Hightower get banged up against the Jets. We don’t know much about what actually happened to them at this point – besides the fact that it was apparently a head injury for McCourty. Fortunately, the team has two weeks to heal up, but let’s hope none of these are too serious.
  • The team was able to keep the total amount of penalties to a tolerable four for 30 yards.

So, while this team is certainly not without its issues heading into the playoffs, their performance in the season finale at least inspires some hope. The team and its group of ailing players now get some extra time to rest before they kick off postseason play on Sunday, January 13 at 1 p.m in Foxborough. Against who, you ask? We won’t know until next Sunday afternoon.

Be sure to stay tuned to The 300s throughout the playoffs for all your Pats coverage. Let the “Blitz for Six” commence!

Patriots Jets Week 17 Preview, Odds, and Storylines

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The last game of the regular season has arrived. And, for the first time in a while, this one matters A LOT.

By this point, the Pats usually have a bye locked up, but depending on what happens on Sunday they could finish anywhere from the No. 1 to the No. 4 seed in the AFC this season. Therefore, they could either have: guaranteed home-field advantage throughout the playoffs; guaranteed home-field advantage for some of the playoffs; or only get to play at home just once (not to mention the fact that the last scenario would mean they would need to play a whole extra game as well).

(CBS Sports lays out all the playoff scenarios here for all you super nerds like me.)

But what it all comes down to for the Pats is this:

As long as they win, they are guaranteed to have at least one of the byes; if they lose, it’s going to be near impossible for that to happen.

Fortunately, we’re going up against a terrible New York Jets squad – who we already beat just a few weeks ago – and this time, it’s at home. Before we hop into the preview, though, here’s a look at where, when, and how to watch the game along with the latest lines:

  • Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, MA)
  • Kickoff: Sunday, Dec. 30, 1 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS
  • Odds (via Odds Shark): Patriots: -13.5 (spread) / Patriots: -730 (moneyline) / 44.5 (total)

The Jets (4-11) are really bad. I know I’ve called plenty of other teams bad throughout many of my previews this year, but I really mean it this time. The Jets have won just once since the middle of October and have given up an average of 29 points per game over that same period. They are also tied for the second-worst record in the league with Oakland and San Francisco.

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Rather than continue to throw a bunch of random stats at you or talk about Jets players to watch out for (are there even any?), I’m going to do it a bit differently this time around and simply focus on a few key things I’ll be keeping an eye on from Brady and the boys on Sunday.

(Can the Offense Keep it Going?): A lot of people were shocked to see the Pats put up almost 400 yards of offense against Buffalo, the league’s No. 2 defense, last week. Much of this had to do with an insane 273-yard rushing output, as the passing offense mustered up a pathetic total of 117. Ironically, this was after two games in which the ground game struggled, failing to crack 100 yards in Weeks 15 and 16, while the passing offense averaged 308 yards. My point is there is just ZERO consistency in this offense right now besides Julian Edelman, and that’s tough to maintain heading into postseason play. Is Cordarrelle Patterson healthy and will he remain the X-factor like he was last week? Has Sony Michel rediscovered his early-season success, and is he now ready to shoulder the team throughout January? I have no idea, but it’d be nice to see some sort of sense of direction from Brady & Co. by the end of the weekend.

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All right, kid, it’s time to earn that first-round money!

(How Injured is Brady?): Everyone knows by now that Brady and the team have not been very forthcoming regarding his injured knee. The team’s always been very secretive in that respect, but I feel like they’re really hiding something this time around. At times over the past few weeks, it has looked like Brady’s been operating purely off of sheer adrenaline and determination, but he’s no longer listed on the injury report and he insists he’s not hurt. Really, Tommy? Prove that to me this Sunday.

(Can the Secondary/Pass-Coverage Finish Strong?): Again, it’s really hard to pick out a “strength” for the Jets, but if it’s anywhere it’s probably in the passing game. Robby Anderson has averaged 104 receiving yards over the past three games, with a touchdown in each contest, as the young wide receiver is having a bit of a late-season resurgence. Chris Herndon has also sneakily been one of the game’s most consistent tight ends this season, and he put up a solid seven catches for 57 yards against the Pats when they played in November. (He also had six for 82 with a score last week against Green Bay.) Fortunately, rookie quarterback Sam Darnold will also be playing his first-ever game in Foxborough, and the Pats should handle whatever he throws at them. (Although Darnold has been excellent lately, with six touchdowns and one pick over his last three games.) Hey, I had to give the Jets something, right?

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The Jets might actually have a nice, young piece in Herndon.

(Will the Boys Behave?): I touched upon this already in my postgame notes from Monday, but the Pats have been called for an average of over eight penalties a game throughout the past five contests. Yes, that number is significantly bumped by a crazy 14 penalties against the Steelers two weeks ago. But, even when removing that game entirely, the Pats have still been responsible for almost six flags a game. That’s not good at any point in the year, but that type of stuff will sink anyone – and quickly – during postseason play.

Prediction

The Pats will absolutely wallop the Jets. I have no doubt in my mind about it. With a bye on the line and playing against one of the dregs of the league, there’s just no way that we lose this one. And it won’t even be close. Kansas City will beat Oakland as well, and the Pats will head into the postseason as the No. 2 seed.

Buy or Sell: Tom Brady’s Plans to “Not only Play Next Year, but Beyond That”

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As he does every week, Tom Brady spoke with his buddy Jim Gray of Westwood One on Monday – which also just so happened to be Christmas Eve – and gave Patriots fans what many of them may blindly believe to be the greatest gift they’ll receive this holiday season: his renewed commitment to playing for the long term.

When asked if he’d be playing next season, at the ripe age of 42, Brady said:

“I absolutely believe I will. I know I’ve talked about it for a long time: I have goals to not only play next year, but beyond that. I’m going to try to do it as best I possibly can. I’m going to give it everything I have, like I always have.”

In a vacuum, that quote sounds great. The winningest QB of all time saying that he’s not going anywhere, continuing to display the resolve of a lion refusing to give up his place as the alpha on the Serengeti? Talk about some much-needed motivation for a post-Christmas return to the office!

But, in reality, is what he said really a good thing?

Mattes! How could you??!! That’s Tom FUCKIN’ Brady! The G.O.A.T! The greatest thing to ever happen to the Pats, and possibly New England as a whole! SHAME! SHAME! SHAME!

Look, I’m not denying any of those things. Brady is arguably the greatest athlete in Boston sports history, and for all that he’s done he does deserve the chance to at least try to play as long as he possibly can.

However, the Pats cannot continue to blindly place all of their confidence in Brady’s determination and bravado, completely ignoring the fact that this is man who has already far exceeded the shelf life of most NFL quarterbacks. Yes, what he’s done so far is pretty damn impressive, but let’s also not forget that Brady is indeed still a human being.

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OK, mayyybeee, he’s a bit more special than most humans.

As they say, Father Time always wins, and I believe we’re finally starting to see the old man get his licks in on the legend. Sure, Brady’s 4,105 passing yards and 25 touchdowns this year are still Pro-Bowl-worthy marks, but his 11 interceptions are also the most he’s had since 2013 and are two higher than his career average (with one game still left to play).

Sure. Maybe the 11 picks aren’t all that alarming on paper, but you can’t tell me there haven’t been times this year where you haven’t looked at the T.V. going: “Really, Tommy? What the HELL was that throw?”

All I’m saying is that whether it’s due to his old age, a supposedly “minor” knee issue, or the fact that the offense is in a state of flux, Brady hasn’t looked as infallible or fluid as usual, even being just one year removed from an MVP season. And I’m sorry, but no matter how many tofu cakes he consumes or how many tomatoes he refuses to eat, he’s not going to recuperate like he used to.

So, what are you saying then, Mattes??!! Do you really think we should get rid of Brady?!

NO! Not right now at least. But if we go another offseason without so much as giving a thought to life after Brady, I’m going to be pretty heated. I’m not too upset about them passing on Lamar Jackson this year at the end of the first round, but after trading Jimmy Garoppolo, the team has nothing in terms of future QB prospects.

To be fair, not many teams are lucky enough to have a guy waiting in the wings once a legend decides – or is forced – to hang ’em up for good. But the smart teams DO at least make an effort. The Colts made the tough decision to tank and move on from Peyton Manning in order to nab Andrew Luck. The Packers picked Aaron Rodgers, knowing it would piss Brett Favre off, and while Rodgers had to wait three years to finally get his shot, the Packers barely skipped a beat. Hell, the 49ers even traded Joe Montana in favor of Steve Young, and I’d say that one worked out pretty well.

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Hopefully, this one doesn’t come back to bite the Pats down the line.

The point is that a tough decision is going to have to be made soon. And, if we’re being entirely honest, it’s probably going to come down to the team forcing the player’s hand, because at this point I doubt Brady goes anywhere until he is literally physically unable to move.

But the Pats can’t wait that long. They can’t just sit around expecting 3-5 more years of greatness and then just, I don’t know, hope for the best? Because once Brady starts to slip, it’s likely going continue rapidly, as was the case with many before him. (And, like I said, I think we’re already starting to see it.) Or, even worse, as age and body ailments continue to mount, Brady is forced to suddenly retire, against his will and good intentions, leaving the Pats with absolutely ZILCH (and likely a very looooong rebuild).

And – I hope you’re sitting down for this one – if the opportunity comes along where a team is willing to part with a hefty amount of assets in order to bring in that one piece that will take them over the top, then the Pats shouldn’t hesitate to trade Brady.

I’m not saying to simply trade the guy for a first-round pick; he deserves better than that. And I’m not saying we should necessarily do it this offseason. But what if there’s a team out there that is willing to trade multiple draft picks and, say, a top-50 player who’s still in his mid-to-late 20s in order to acquire him? Bill & Co. would be foolish to not at least consider it.

Even outside of the QB position, the Pats have a dearth of young talent on the roster, and even with Brady right now, the Patriots are not the automatic AFC champions that they used to be. And continuing to place their full confidence on Brady’s lip-service and accolades alone could come back to bite the franchise in a big way once the TB12 era is all said and done.

So, I’m happy that still you love the game, Tommy, and I know that the day you’re no longer donning a Pats uniform will truly be one of the saddest of my life. But I’m also not ignorant, and it’s time for Pats Nation to take off those Brady-colored glasses and start looking toward the future.

The 300s 2018 Fantasy Football All Cock Tease Team

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Welcome, welcome to our awards. Before we begin I’m going to briefly kick it to our team on tonight’s red carpet…

Thank Joey! Here we see Founder Red wearing a Lakers jersey with camo cargo shorts. I’m really digging his ironic choice that is clearly a protest to our recent cooperation with North Korea. Back to the studio…

Thanks guys! Now before we proceed I should probably explain what these awards actually are about since nobody fucking knows.

We have all picked a bust or 12 throughout our fantasy football seasons, however most are of either the “reach” or “hard on” variety. A “reach”, as is well known, is a player you pick a bit too high, possibly motivated by the fear of someone else picking him. A “hard on” pick, for lack of a more enlightened term, would refer to players that we just personally really like without a ton evidence as to why and that simply don’t work out.

These awards, however, celebrate the “cock teases” – players who are picked at a good time given their value, normally put up good numbers relative to that selection point, yet completely fuck us. They don’t buy us dinner first either, just bend us over the analogous  10, 12, or 16 team table and fuck us.

So without further ado, as composed by and contributed to by our talented staff, I give you The 300s 2018 All Cock Tease Team:

QB: Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers
Red: I was ready for Jimmy G to rise like a phoenix out of the ashes that was my 2017 fantasy season, but in his third game the most handsome ACL in the league exploded and I was stuck with Matt Stafford at QB the rest of the way.

 

RB1: Jordan Howard, Chicago Bears
Mattes: Now, a lot of people might give me crap for drafting Howard in the second round of a PPR draft. First, I’d like to respond by saying it’s only a half-point league, and, second, the guy also had two-straight 1,200-plus-yard seasons and nine touchdowns last year on a bad team. I – like many – expected the Bears to be much-improved this year (which they certainly are), and I also believed new head coach Matt Nagy when he said he’d finally get Howard more involved in the passing game. Then came along Tarik Cohen, and there were also five games this year in which Howard averaged under 2.6 yards a carry. In fact, Cohen actually ended up finishing over FOURTY spots ahead of Howard in the overall rankings this year. Picked the wrong guy, I guess, huh?

 


RB2: Le’veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers
GUEST CONTRIBUTION! Patty Blackouts: I mean what is there to say besides he’s a seflish fuck who passed up 850k a week to sit out and try and protect his body to try and get a long term deal. Took him 4th overall thinking he’d show up sometime around end of September or October and nope just sat out all season sending cryptic tweets so you’d think he was going to report and next ya know he’s playing pickup basketball games at the local Y. I hope no one pays him what he wants and he regrets passing up the 14.5 mill he would have been paid this season by signing the franchise tag. But yes I’m bitter because  I used my first overall pick on him in fantasy got the same amount of points out of him as he did paychecks this season….0!

I hope he gets hurt in the next preseason.

Douchebag.

WR1: Quincy Enunwa, Goddam Jets
Red: No one, and I mean no one in my fantasy league watches more Jets games than me as the Mrs. is a huge fan. So watching a team that bad I was determined to derive some value out of it, which is exactly what Quincy Enunwa was going to do for me. Enunwa was going to be the steal of the draft as he put up 15, 12 and 10 points in 3 of the first 4 games, but then his season was derailed by various injuries. He cracked 6 points just once after September…

 

WR2: Golden Tate, Detroit Lions/Philadelphia Eagles
Joey B: Tate started the season as Matthew Stafford’s #1 option in what is normally a high flying Detroit offense. To that end, he kicked off the season with games of  17, 15, 10 and TWENTY FUCKING NINE. After that he completely shit the bed, probably became an asshole in the locker room because he realized his name is fucking Golden, and then got traded to Philly where he had one game of 20, coincidentally the only other time he’s seen the end zone since September, and seemingly is hated by all 12 of Philly’s playoff-ready QBs.

 

TE: Gronk
Joey B: I always pick Gronk wayyyy too high because he plays a position where all of 4-5 guys give you tremendous amounts of points and even among those guys he usually stands out. But this year, as the world knows, was different. He’s just broken and I’m just sad.

 

Flex1: Jarvis Landry, Cleveland Browns
Mattes: Landry wasn’t without a few big games of his own this year. Also like Cousins, Landry was a guy whom I expected to make a huge splash with a new team this season, but instead was super inconsistent. Yes, he had to deal with learning how to play with two different QBs this year, but remember that Baker Mayfield has been playing since Week 3. In the 13 games he’s played with Mayfield, Landry has put up single-digit totals in seven of them. For a guy who averaged 99 catches per season before this year, his mark of 72 through 16 games this year is incredibly disappointing.

 

Flex2: Chris Hogan, New England Patriots
Big Z: With Brandin Cooks in LA and Julian Edelman sidelined for the first four games of the season, I was certain Chris Hogan was a steal in the fifth round. He would be one of Tom Brady’s top targets the first month of the season, and hopefully stay in the mix even after Edelman returned.

Hogan scored two touchdowns in Week 2, but he wouldn’t find the end zone again for three months. By that time I had already dropped him and moved on. Just another cautionary tale of putting too much stock in to a Patriots WR/RB for fantasy football purposes.

 

D/ST: San Diego Los Angeles Chargers
Joey B: With Joey Bosa and company up front and some decent pieces in the secondary, I thought the “pressure creates turnovers” rule would get me some points on D. Instead Bosa got hurt and the Chargers are last in return yards allowed.

 

Kicker: Dan Bailey, Minnesota Vikings
Big Z: Drafting and picking up kickers in fantasy football is a bit of a crap shoot. You just try to pick up a guy who kicks for a team with a good, but not great, offense. If he plays in warm weather or a dome, even better. That’s why I love NFC South kickers and why I will never draft the Bills kicker.

Dan Bailey had a rough 2017 and got released by Dallas. But he was at one time the most accurate kicker in NFL history. When he got picked up by Minnesota, I thought he would be a good guy to take a flier on. Accurate kicker on a good, not great, team that plays its home games in a dome.

Bailey is 20/27 on field goals for the Vikes this year and his 2018 may be worse than his 2017. Yikes. God help the Vikings special teams coach

 

*BONUS: Mid-Season Pick Up Fist Fucker of the Year*

WR: Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Green Bay Packers

Red: MVS was one of the few guys I was first to the punch on in my league and he looked like a STUD. 6’4″ with 4.3 speed and Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball? Yes please. After a quiet start to the season MVS blew onto the scene with a 4 week stretch of 13+ points. He would post 6+ points just once the rest of the way…

 

 

 

Patriots Bills Week 16 Preview, Odds, and Storylines

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So these last two Sundays have been really disheartening. (And now Josh Gordon is gone, too! Let’s just keep piling it on!)

After a shocking loss in Miami and then a shameful defeat in Pittsburgh, the Patriots (9-5) are now sitting as the No. 3 seed in the AFC. And though they’re guaranteed to finish no lower than No. 4 as a division winner, Baltimore (8-6) and the Steelers (8-5-1) remain right on their heels. On the flip side, however, the Pats still do have a chance at a bye if they win out AND Houston were to lose to either the Eagles or Jags.

Either way, we’re not typically used to seeing such uncertainty in December, as the Pats being a top-two seed is usually a foregone conclusion by now. But things are different this year; the team just suffered two-straight December losses for the first time since 2002 and are now 3-5 on the road this season.

Now we get our second matchup of the year with a surprisingly decent Buffalo Bills squad. This time it’s at home, and this time the Bills have a much more talented – albeit more inexperienced – signal-caller leading the charge than they did the last time these two played just before Halloween.

But before we get into this week’s primer, here’s a look at where, when, and how to watch the game along with the latest lines:

  • Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, MA)
  • Kickoff: Sunday, Dec. 23, 1 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS
  • Odds (via Odds Shark): Patriots: -13 (spread) / Patriots: -755 (moneyline) / 44.5 (total)

Winners of three of their last five contests, the Bills have far exceeded my expectations this year. That’s probably because while their offense has still been pretty terrible, coming in at No. 31 overall, their defense has been absolutely nasty. Currently sitting at No. 2 overall, the Bills D has allowed just 187.4 yards per game through the air in 2018, tops in the league, and they are also the 10th-best team against the run. And since giving up 41 points to Chicago on November 4, the Bills have only allowed just over 18 points per contest in the five games since.

On offense, the Bills are a bit of an enigma, and it all starts with rookie quarterback Josh Allen. After spending the No. 7 overall pick in this year’s draft to select him, the Bills were without Allen the first time they played the Pats this season. But since returning just after Thanksgiving, Allen is 2-2 with over 1,150 total yards and seven scores.

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Allen is proving all the doubters wrong lately with his moxie and strong play.

Notice, though, that I said “total” yards; over 30 percent of those yards have actually come on the ground for Allen – with two 100-plus-yard rushing games – and he’s only completed 50 percent of his passes since making his return. So Allen can be a bit of a conundrum; while he won’t hurt you much in the air just yet, he does have the ability to do some damage with his legs.

The Pats have actually done a great job of containing mobile QBs this year; outside of the 81 rushing yards they gave up to Mitchell Trubisky out in Chicago, they’ve held others like Deshaun Watson (40), Patrick Mahomes (9), and Marcus Mariota (21) to relatively low numbers on the ground. Still, the Pats continue to be horrendous against the run overall, allowing opponents to average 5.0 yards per carry on the season and coming off of two straight in which they’ve given up over 150 yards on the ground. Allen, along with running back LeSean McCoy, who is expected back after missing last week’s game, could put up some serious rushing totals in Foxborough on Sunday.

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I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: do not sleep on this dude.

Fortunately, the Pats should be able to shut down the Bills air game with ease. As I said, Allen still has quite a ways to go as a passer, and besides this Robert Foster kid – who has come out of NOWHERE with three 100-plus-yard games (!) in the last month – the Bills have absolutely nothing at receiver. (No, really, it’s kinda sad.) The Pats also have a pretty stout secondary, and there’s the fact that a rookie QB has never beaten Belichick in Foxborough in the month of December.

All I’m saying is that Allen better put on his PF Flyers if he wants any chance of having success on Sunday.

Storylines

(What Does the Offense Do Now?): Things are looking pretty bleak for the offense right now. After a fool’s gold performance in Miami two weeks ago, Gronk went right back to looking worn out and put up a dud against the Steelers. Brady also looks off – and has for weeks – and now there’s speculation he might legitimately be hurt. Sony Michel has cooled off significantly after a hot start to his career, with James White and Rex Burkhead not really doing much behind him either. And today we find out that the Josh Gordon Experience is over in Foxborough, suddenly leaving the Pats without a true No. 1 outside receiver. Considering there’s two weeks left of regular-season play, they need to figure it out fast, and it all starts this week against one of the game’s top defensive units.

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Yeah, Gronk, I agree. That’s pretty much exactly how I’ve been looking at my T.V. these past few Sundays.

(Will This Team Ever Stop the Run?): As mentioned above, the Pats have been one of the absolute worst teams against the run this year. They’ve given up over 115 rushing yards to four of their last six opponents (including three games in which they gave up over 150!). Dalvin Cook would’ve made it five-out-of-six if the Vikings didn’t stop giving him the ball a few weeks ago after he racked up over 90 rushing yards on just nine carries. So not only do I fear that the offense won’t be able to keep up in the playoffs, but the unit won’t even have a chance to get on the field if the Pats’ opponents can simply just run the clock out on them. This week is their last chance to prove their worth against the league’s ninth-ranked rushing offense.

Prediction

I know this preview seems a bit “doom and gloom,” but, come on, can you blame me? After these past two weeks? Also, I’m supposed to have confidence that this offense, in its current state, will blow doors on the second-best defense in the league? Furthermore, the Bills solid running game might actually allow them to hang around and dictate the pace of the contest. These Bills are also tough and pretty resilient; each of their past four games were decided by four points or less. The ONLY reason I am picking the Pats to win this week is because it’s in Foxborough, but it won’t be pretty. The Pats take it 21-17.

Patriots Steelers Week 15 Preview, Odds, and Storylines

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This is the one we’ve all been waiting for.

While the Pats have played premiere squads like Houston, Chicago, and Minnesota this season, there’s no doubt that this weekend’s bout with the Steelers is the one that most have had marked on their calendars since September. Though Pittsburgh is in the midst of a three-game skid, they’re still one of the AFC’s most talented and dangerous squads, and these two teams always have memorable battles – often with huge playoff implications – what seems like every year now. And this year is no different.

At 7-5-1, Pittsburgh still sits atop the AFC North; their shot at a bye is likely gone, but with Baltimore nipping at their heels for the division title, they won’t be taking this one lightly.

Before we get to the preview, here’s a look at where, when, and how to watch the game along with the latest lines:

  • Location: Heinz Field (Pittsburgh, PA)
  • Kickoff: Sunday, Dec. 16, 4:25 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS
  • Odds (via Odds Shark): Patriots: -2 (spread) / Patriots: -132 (moneyline) / 52 (total)

It’s almost surprising to see the Pats favored in this one; the fact of the matter is the Pats have been a terrible road team this year, with a 2-4 record in games outside of Gillette. On the flip side, Pittsburgh is struggling a bit when playing in the Steel City this year, as they are 3-3 at home, surprising for a team that has typically had one of the strongest home-field advantages in the league in years past. The Pats have also won five straight against the Steelers, including the playoffs, but they barely escaped with a win in Pittsburgh last December on a very controversial overturned touchdown call late in the game.

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The fallout from this play dominated the sports talk air waves for weeks last winter.

Typically built entirely upon their offense the past couple of seasons, Pittsburgh has stepped it up big time on defense this year. That is not to say their offense, currently ranked fourth overall in the league, hasn’t still been great; it’s just that they also feature the league’s sixth-ranked defense against the run and are 12th against the pass. After struggling to run the ball against Miami’s putrid front last week, I’d leave Sony Michel, James White, and Rex Burkhead on your fantasy bench this week.

With two top-seven passing offenses, as well as a future H.O.F. quarterback and a lethal 1-2 combo at wide out on both sides, expect to see an air show on Sunday. As pointed out by Rotoworld’s Rich Hribar, the Steelers have also thrown the ball over 65 percent of the time since Week 6, the highest rate in the league, and with running back James Conner still being uncertain to play this week with an ankle injury, Big Ben might be forced to chuck it even more. However, Roethlisberger also injured his ribs this past Sunday against the Raiders, and while he should still play this week he could be a bit hindered. We shall see.

(SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE: James Conner is out this week. That’s good news for the Pats and their pathetic run defense [seriously, it’s been awful]. Jaylen Samuels and old friend Stevan Ridley will handle the load for Pitt in Conner’s stead.)

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It’s always a sight to behold when these two square off.

It should also be noted that Gronk was basically the reason the Pats were able to beat the Steelers last year, absolutely dominating the stat line with nine catches for 168 yards. As I’ve pointed out numerous times this year, the big fella just doesn’t look the same lately, and the Pats might not have as big of an advantage heading into this game as they did a year ago.

Fortunately, though, we still have Bill Belichick, and the Steelers have Mike Tomlin. That’s probably the biggest chip the Pats will be playing with this weekend, and there’s no doubt which team holds the leg up there.

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Be sure to stay tuned for the always entertaining Tomlin postgame presser on Sunday night.

Simply put: we’re in for a fun one on Sunday.

Storylines

To be entirely honest, it’s tough to pick which of the many different factors that will affect this game to highlight here. Due the long history between the two teams, I could probably write an entire book on them. There are such questions as: Are Brady’s (knee) and Roethlisberger’s recent “minor” health issues going to rear their ugly heads at some point?; Has Gronk finally put his long list of nagging ailments behind him?; Will James Conner play, and if so, how much?; Can Stephon Gilmore and Jason McCourty continue their strong play against the likes of Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster? I think I already pretty much covered most of what you need to know above. I just CANNOT WAIT for Sunday afternoon.

Prediction

This one’s almost impossible to predict, as I really feel like it could go either way. One thing’s for sure, I think Vegas got it right this week; neither team is going to come out on top by much more than a couple points, at most. Due to the Pats’ struggles when traveling this year, I’m actually giving the slight edge to Pittsburgh. Especially if the team can’t establish anything on the ground, Brady’s going to need to eat his Wheaties for breakfast that morning if he wants to keep up with the Steelers’ high-powered O. In the end, I think the Pats suffer a heartbreaker, 31-27.

Miami is a Hell Hole and It’s Where Patriots Seasons Go to Die

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Only in Miami does that happen. Only in Miami are the Patriots just utterly incapable of beating the Dolphins regardless of how good or bad they are each year. I don’t know what the hell it is, but Tom Brady and the Pats just melt (get it?!) in Miami every season.

What’s worse is that the Chiefs just won in OT so this seals the Patriots fate. There’s no realistic shot at the No. 1 seed anymore. Thank god the Texans lost to the Colts today or we’re looking at the No. 3 seed and the Patriots are playing Wild Card weekend. So with three games remaining against the Steelers, Bills, and Jets the Patriots have to win out. Either way they will most likely have to go through Kansas City at Arrowhead Stadium in the playoffs, which is daunting enough as it is, but the Pats absolutely cannot fall to the No. 3-4 seed and be forced into playing on Wild Card weekend.

And for all the NFL head coaches on Twitter second guessing putting Gronk in there at the end can chill the fuck out. It’s way more likely that the Dolphins uncork a hail mary there than Kenyan Drake getting inside the 10 forcing Gronk to attempt a tackle in the open field.

God damnit.

Patriots Dolphins Week 14 Game Preview, Odds, and Storylines

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After Sunday’s sound victory over Minnesota, many might be expecting the Patriots to roll over the Dolphins in Miami this week. But, any true Pats fan knows that Miami has been Brady’s own personal hell throughout his entire career.

Not only are the Pats 1-4 in their last five trips down to Vice City, but look at just how bad Brady has been down there throughout his entire career, as pointed out by Danny Heifetz of The Ringer:

Against the other 30 teams in the league, Brady is 85-32 on the road in the regular season. In Miami, he is 7-9, giving him more losses in Miami than anywhere except New England. Hell, Brady has nine losses in 16 Miami games and 19 losses in 132 home games. Brady has thrown 15 interceptions in Miami, which is more than he’s thrown in any season of his career. No matter how destitute the Dolphins are or how unbeatable the Pats seem, a trip to Miami is the most dangerous thing for the team outside of a visit from Bernard Karmell Pollard.

So, yeah, it hasn’t always been a breeze down in Miami for the Pats. But before we hop into the preview, here’s a quick look at where, when, and how to watch the game along with the latest lines:

  • Location: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, FL)
  • Kickoff: Sunday, Dec. 9, 1 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS
  • Odds (via Odds Shark): Patriots: -7.5 (spread) / Patriots: -350 (moneyline) / 47 (total)

Rather than base expectations purely off of what happened in the past, though, let’s take a look at who Miami has been this season.

First and foremost, they’re just not very good – on either side of the ball. They’re ranked 29th in terms of both total offense and defense. And while they are 6-6, much of that had to do with a fool’s gold 4-2 start, which has been followed up by a 2-4 run since the middle of October.

Yes, it is true that they were without Ryan Tannehill for five games, forcing them to turn to Brock Osweiler (*BARF*) until Tannehill returned two weeks ago against the Colts. But even still, Tannehill had 52.6 QB rating over his last two games before the injury, failing to surpass 185 yards passing in either contest – with one of those games coming against Cincinnati, who has had the absolute worst defense in the league this season BY FAR. (Seriously, the Bengals defense is laughably horrendous.)

To be fair, he has bounced back with two straight 100-plus-QB-rating games over the past two weeks, with a very solid 5-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio. Miami is also 1-1 over that time, with the victory coming in a very close contest against Buffalo last week.

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Honestly, who ever really knows what to expect from this guy?

But even still this is probably the worst Miami team in quite some time, and now their bottom-of-the-barrel defense will be without stud corner, Xavien Howard, on Sunday. Howard, who is in his third year, leads the league in interceptions with seven and has quickly vaulted himself into the upper echelon at the position with his play in 2018. He’s yet to officially be ruled out, but ESPN’s Cameron Wolfe, who covers the Dolphins, doesn’t sound too optimistic:

If that’s the case, expect a nice game from Josh Gordon – and the rest of the Pats receiving corps, for that matter – as the Dolphins really don’t have much else at the position. Truthfully, this should be a great game for the Pats offense as a whole; Miami is also giving up 144.7 yards per game on the ground this year, due in part to the 180-plus rushing yards they’ve given up four of their last six contests. The Pats also carved up the Dolphins for 175 rushing yards when the teams met in Week 4, so expect Sony Michel – who had 112 of those yards – to FEAST once again this weekend. (Seriously, if you’ve got Sony on your fantasy team, fire him up!)

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Expect another electric showing from the rook down in the Sunshine State.

The one noteworthy “strength” (and I use that term loosely) for the Dolphins might be their running game. It’s a two-pronged attack featuring the ageless future H.O.F. Frank Gore and a talented but inconsistent third-year man in Kenyan Drake. After an 883-yard breakout last year, most people expected Drake to completely take over this year, but the 35-year-old Gore is not going away, quietly averaging almost 12 carries a game at a 4.43 per-carry mark. Drake has had his moments this year and is unquestionably the team’s top pass-catching back, but even still neither one has been all that impressive this year, and the Pats should be able to keep them at bay.

Storylines

(Can Brady Defeat His Demons?): As evidenced above, Brady is not a fan of playing in Miami. However, as also previously mentioned, this may be the worst Dolphins team we’ve seen in years, and I just don’t see how Brady can once again lay an egg down there. With Gordon now in the fold, Brady & Co. should be able to exploit Miami’s weak secondary; if not, then it’s really just all in Brady’s head and there’s just nothing else to say.

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Come on, Tommy. It’s time to change the narrative.

(Oh, Danny, Where Art Thou?): As I pointed out the other week, offseason acquisition Danny Shelton has been extremely disappointing this year. In fact, he’s been so ineffective that he wasn’t even active for last week’s game against Minnesota. Bill’s not afraid to quickly cut bait on bad investments, and hopefully it’s not the last we’ve seen of Shelton, who really does possess some solid talent. If he rides the pine again for the second straight week, however, it could signal the end of the 25-year-old’s career in New England.

(Will We See the Duke’s Arrival?): Even though he’s now been active for three weeks after being taken off I.R., rookie corner Duke Dawson has still yet to make his debut. It’s likely because of the fact the team’s current group of corners has been playing exceptionally well this year, and Dawson did miss a lot of valuable practice time while he was on the shelf. But still, the team needs to eventually see what they have in the young guy, on whom they spent a second-round pick in May.

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Can’t wait to see what this kid’s got when he finally gets his chance.

Prediction

I honestly expect the Pats to roll in this one, regardless of what past history tells us. The team’s offense should be able to destroy Miami with ease, and while Tannehill could have a surprisingly good game, he just doesn’t have enough around him to overtake what the Pats are bringing to the table. This one’s over quickly, and the Pats take it 38-17.

The 300s Bloggers’ James Develin is a Playmaker Fantasy Football Round Up – Week 13

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Welcome back. Another week and another 3 days of the highest of highs and lowest of lows. We laughed, we cried, we screamed at the tv/computer screen, terrifying dogs and neighbors alike. Fantasy amiright?!

The two most important things to note about this past week in the NF of L was that A.) Tom Brady has more career rushing yards than Sony Michel. Which is just embarrassing; and B.) James Develin is becoming a legitimate red zone threat which, laugh at it or not, frees up other skill position players for opportunities. In the words of Aubrey, “YEEEaaa, be very afraid.”

Red

I got NINETEEN points from my kicker this past week to just barely squeak out a win. Alas, I missed the playoffs by one game, primarily because Matt Stafford hosed me last week and multiple times throughout the season. But thats what happens when you click the wrong thing and accidentally draft an asshole in the 8th round. They say a pictures worth a thousand words and Yahoo helped me summarize my season in just one image.

Papa G

Blogger’s Note: That was seriously all Papa G submitted. Please keep him in your thoughts.

Big Z

The Z-Men won 121-98 in Week 13, led once again by Christian McCaffrey who put up a cool 25 points. James Conner iced the match Sunday night with two early touchdowns. The win is my squad’s 6th in 7 weeks, enough to improve to 9-4 on the season and secure a first round bye in the fantasy playoffs.

The bye week is huge because it guarantees me a “bowl game” and a crack at at least getting my money back. Let’s just hope I don’t run up two bills in my bye week and run out of gas down the stretch for a second-straight season.

Joey B

I lost again and am last in both pure record and points for for the year. I don’t know where it all went so, so wrong. Fuck you Matthew Stafford. Fuck you Jordan Howard. Fuck every WR not named Michael Thomas.

Mattes

So I failed to make the playoffs in both leagues, and it was a struggle to get out of bed this morning. For a guy who invests way more time than the average person following fantasy football and searching the depths of the Internet for any and all things related to it – no, seriously, it might be actually be a problem – this one really hurts. It’s not like my teams were all that bad either; I was top-three in points against in both leagues, and I lost two games by less than a point while freakin’ TYING another. I know I sound like a dope making excuses right now, but I picked up guys like Aaron Jones, D.J. Moore, Josh Adams, and Tarik Cohen this year, playing the wire like a fiddle all year long. But in fantasy as well as life, it’s all about who you’re matched up against, and it just wasn’t my year. I can still win the loser’s bracket in each league, starting with a first-round matchup against Red this week in one of them. I guess that’s something.