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Mattes

Pronounced like the general. I'm all about the Celtics, Pats, Sox, and fantasy football...and dogs. Former editor who's back on that writing flow, chiming in on all of the above, with perhaps some comic book news and conspiracy-fueled personal manifestos along the way.

Patriots/Jets Postgame Thoughts and Week 13 Pats/Vikings Preview, Odds, & Storylines

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With just five weeks left in the NFL season, the Pats (8-3) currently sit as the AFC’s No. 2 seed, just behind the Chiefs (9-2) and barely ahead of the Steelers (7-3-1) and Texans (8-3), the last of which the Pats beat in Week 1 and therefore hold the tiebreaker.

Though it’s tough to call any win over the Jets “impressive,” Brady & the boys – actually, Sony Michel stole the show – were firing on all cylinders on Sunday. Their 498 total yards of offense were the team’s second-most on the year so far; they did post 500 total yards against the Chiefs in Week 6, but they’ve only averaged just over 370 yards per game since that time – which could have a lot to do with a missing or less-than-100-percent Sony Michel from Weeks 8-10.

Here’s a few of my takeaways from this past weekend’s victory in the Meadowlands:

  • Obviously, the biggest takeaway from Sunday’s game was the play of our stud rookie running back. Sony Michel‘s 145 total yards and a score on 23 touches were outstanding enough, but the fact that he was able to do all that while playing less than 45 percent of the snaps is all the more impressive. He may be the best pure runner the Pats have had since Corey Dillon, and there’s no doubt the entire offense, Brady included, plays much better when he’s on the field.
  • Gronk was also back this week after not playing since Week 8 in Buffalo. He did receive eight targets and hauled in a pretty tough ball for a deep score, but to have just three catches in total for 56 yards while playing on 99 percent of the snaps is nothing to write home about. Look, I’d rather have him on the field than not, but as I said last week the days of his pure and utter dominance on the field are likely a thing of the past.
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Gronk was finally back in action with a score on Sunday.

  • Trey Flowers and Deatrich Wise continue to wreak havoc on opponents, as each recorded a sack of Josh McCown. They are quickly becoming two of the best bookends in the league.

So how about this week’s matchup? Well, the Pats are set to square off at home against a 6-4-1 Vikings squad who just beat Aaron Rodgers and the Packers on Sunday night. While they haven’t been quite as strong as many expected this year, there’s no doubt they’re still one of the top teams in the NFC, if not the entire NFL.

As always, here’s a look at where, when, and how to watch the game along with the latest lines:

  • Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, MA)
  • Kickoff: Sunday, Dec. 2, 4:25 p.m. ET
  • TV: FOX
  • Odds (via Odds Shark): Patriots: -5.5 (spread) / Patriots: -245 (moneyline) / 48.5 (total)

I’ve heard many people out there say that the success of the Vikings has lived and died by the play of Kirk Cousins this year, but I don’t necessarily agree. After signing a record NFL deal with Minnesota this offseason, Cousins has been solid but unspectacular in his first year. His overall stat line looks pretty great – 101.9 QB rating; 3,289 passing yards; 22 TDs; 7 INTs – but he’s also laid a few clunkers in which he passed for under 230 yards this season. The irony is, though, all three of those games were victories for the Vikings, as Cousins is still supported by a pretty damn good defense.

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Captain Kirk is still one of the game’s best passers, no matter how you spin it.

The Viking’s D is a top-five unit against both the run and the pass, and they currently sit third in total yards allowed per game. The team is literally LOADED on every level of their defense; from 11.5-sack stud defensive end Danielle Hunter to tackle monsters like Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr to elite secondary players like Xavier Rhodes and Harrison Smith, this may be the best defense the Pats have faced all season – besides maybe a pre-collapse Jaguars team in Week 2. Taking away the 556 yards they gave up to the Rams in Week 4, the Vikings would be No. 1 in the league in yards allowed per game.

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The “Purple People Eaters” are back in Minnesota, folks.

Therefore, it’s not going to be an easy one for the Pats offense, even at home. And it’s not like they can just sit back and hope for a grind-it-out type of battle either; Minnesota still has a top-15 offense, which is only being dragged down by an underperforming running game. As mentioned above, Cousins is still having a great year and has studs like Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs – both of whom have combined for 172 catches, 1,996 total yards, and 14 scores through just 11 games (!!!) so far – helping him run the league’s seventh-best passing offense.

But, again, if there is any saving grace for the Pats it’s the Vikings running game. With the secondary being one of the Pats strength’s, hopefully they can slow down Minnesota’s air attack just enough to force them to rely a bit more on the ground. Though I do think the Pats can hold up against the run, Dalvin Cook does have the ability to torch our pass-coverage-inept linebacking corps, as he’s put up over 40 receiving yards per contest in games in which he’s received at least four targets. But again, as long as the Pats can force Minnesota to run a bit more than they’d like to, they could be OK.

(THURSDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: Xavier Rhodes missed his second straight practice on Thursday with a hamstring injury, which he injured on Sunday. At first it was thought to be serious, then it wasn’t, and now it might be again. It’s looking less and less likely that he’ll play, which would be wonderful news for the Pats offense. Stefon Diggs also missed his second straight practice, so the Vikes could be without one of their top weapons on both sides of the ball on Sunday.)

Storylines

(How Will Burkhead Be Used?): The Pats officially activated Rex Burkhead off I.R. on Monday, and he’s expected to be mixed in with Michel and James White in the backfield starting this week – but just how much? With both Michel and White playing so well and forming a lethal 1-2 punch this year, is there really any room for Sexy Rexy? Of course, having him as an extra depth piece can only be a good thing, but it’ll be interesting to see how Bill uses him throughout the rest of the year. Again, I predicted this guy to be our friggin’ offensive MVP this year, so he’s no slouch, but I’m honestly unsure if there’s a whole lot of opportunity left for him at this point. Stay tuned.

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No idea how we’re gonna use ya, but welcome back, bud!

(A Shuffling of the Line): While players like Lawrence Guy and Malcolm Brown have seen relatively consistent usage this season, there has been one particular riser AND faller, respectively, at the D-tackle spot over the past few weeks, both of whom are worth noting. Adam Butler, a second year man out of Vandy, has really come on strong over the past few weeks, playing over 50 percent of the snaps in two of the past three games. His strong play continued on Sunday, as he almost sniped an interception on a tipped pass and recorded a QB hit. Danny Shelton, however, has seen his snap share plummet; after playing on over 47 percent of the snaps through the first six games, he’s been used in only about 25 percent of the defensive sets over the past five weeks. Yikes! Sure, game script can dictate how certain lineman are used, but an over 20 percent drop in playing time is pretty significant. John Simon also saw an over 20 percent increase in playing time on Sunday, playing on 42 percent of the snaps after averaging no more than 20 in the three games prior. Bill has never been afraid to shake up the rotation up front based upon recent performance, but he’ll likely need to refine the group a bit once it gets closer to playoff time.

Prediction

If Stephon Gilmore – who, outside of a rough game in Tennessee, has been playing at a truly elite level recently – can keep Diggs at bay on the outside, the Pats will just need to find a way to contain Thielen in the slot. A little extra zone coverage can be used to prevent Cooks from lighting it up on catches out of the backfield, and I’m not too worried about what he or Latavius Murray can do otherwise. Julian Edelman will also likely be the Pats’ X-factor on offense with Josh Gordon facing a tough matchup with Rhodes on the boundary. In the end, though, Minnesota does just enough to beat the Pats out, 31-28.

Patriots Post-Bye Check In and Quick Look at the Rest of the Season

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So mayyyyybe I was a bit too quick to say the Pats locking up a top-two seed in the AFC was a “foregone conclusion” during my last game preview. While the division is still all but ours, that abomination against the Titans last week proved that the Pats maybe aren’t quite as formidable as we thought. Also, the AFC is a lot better this year than in years past; besides Kansas City (9-2), teams like the Chargers (7-3), Steelers (7-2-1), and Texans (7-3) could all challenge for a top seed as well.

Hopefully, Bill was able to rally the troops during the bye and use the extra time off to prepare for what lies ahead in 2018. There may also be no better time than now to assess what we’ve seen from the boys so far and try to highlight what to watch for over the team’s final six contests.

So, rather than do the typical 300s Patriots weekly preview, I’ll instead give you a super short Pats/Jets primer followed by a more in-depth look at some of the top storylines to follow for the last quarter-and-some-change of the 2018 season.

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As always, here’s a look at where, when, and how to watch this week’s game along with the latest lines:

  • Location: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, NJ)
  • Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 25, 1 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS
  • Odds (via Odds Shark): Patriots: -9.5 (spread) / Patriots: -415 (moneyline) / 46 (total)

I’d like to say this is as close to guaranteed win for the Pats as possible, but this team has severely underperformed at times this year, particularly on the road. Still, coming off a bye which was preceded by one of the team’s most pathetic losses in recent memory, I feel like Brady & Co. will come out guns blazing against a pretty lackluster Jets squad.

After starting out the year 3-3 – which included wins over the Lions, Broncos, and Colts – the Jets have now lost four straight. Their 18th-ranked defense only slightly makes up for their 29th-ranked offense, which, to be fair, has been decimated by injuries this season. For instance, rookie quarterback Sam Darnold is still questionable with a foot injury, which forced him to miss the team’s game against Buffalo before their Week 11 bye. Even if he plays, though, will we get the young hotshot who completed 60 percent of his passes and had a 9-to-7 TD-to-INT ratio through the first six games, or will he be more like the 47-percent blind newborn with the 2-to-7 TD-to-INT ratio over the past three? And if he doesn’t play at all? Then we get to face a 39-year-old Josh McCown, who posted an abysmal 35.8 passer rating against the Bills two weeks ago in his only action of the year.

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It’s been an up-and-down year for the rookie, but Darnold definitely has some talent and could finally make the Jets respectable again in due time.

The point is, the Jets have been a bit of an enigma this year – at times pretty good but mostly mediocre to downright awful – and while each side of the ball is sprinkled with bits of talent, there’s no particular player or strength they possess that scares me. Sony Michel should have a nice bounce-back effort against their 21st-ranked run D, and Brady can have fun going against their middle-of-the-pack passing defense. Road divisional games are always a bit of a grind, so it’ll be a lot closer than people think, but I think the Pats pull this one out 24-17.

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I’m expecting a nice “remember me?” effort from Sony this week in Jersey.

But what about the bigger picture? What have we learned so far from this 7-3 Patriots squad, and what can we expect for the rest of 2018?

Well, after this week’s trip the Meadowlands, the Pats have what should be a pretty favorable schedule the rest of the way. There will be just two road games left, one in Miami and the other being quite possibly the biggest game of the year in Pittsburgh in mid-December. Otherwise, there’s a tough home game against the Vikings to get through, but then the season ends with home bouts with the Bills and Jets. At least the Pats won’t have to go through the ringer to end the season.

But as we all know, anything can happen and there are many different factors that will determine how the Pats will look come January. For now, here’s a rundown of what to keep your eye on the rest of the way:

Tom vs. Time

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No, I’m not talking about Brady’s little Facebook series; I’m talking about the real-life, long-term grind that we may finally be starting to see have an effect on our 41-year-old hero. Let me just start by saying that until I see the man fall off a cliff entirely, I will never doubt him. I AM NOT BOLDLY PREDICTING BRADY’S DEMISE HERE. I’m simply saying that he looked OLD against the Titans last Sunday – like Larry King old – even outside of that debacle of a Philly Special they tried to have him run. (On that play, he literally looked like the all-too-ambitious great uncle who tries to go out for a pass against the youngsters in the family Thanksgiving game, only to trip all over himself, fall, and break a hip off the side of the deck. Yeah, it truly looked that bad.) He’s also completed less than 60 percent of his passes over the past three games with just one touchdown. Brady could also come out and go gangbusters for the rest of the year and prove, once again, why he’s the G.O.A.T… but Father Time has to come out on top eventually, right?

Gronk vs. His Body

Gronk, love ya, bud. Mean it. But I think it’s time to hang up the cleats before you’re forced to spend the rest of your life in a freakin’ Hoveround. This man is just four months older than I am and has already had more back surgeries and lingering body ailments than a retired steel worker. This year, he’s already missed three games, which are the 11th, 12th, and 13th regular-season games he’s missed due to injury over the past three years alone. Since playing in all 16 games as a rookie and second-year player, Gronk has been healthy for an average of only 11.6 games per season otherwise. And even when he’s been on the field this year, he hasn’t been anything special; besides a seven-catch, 123-yard performance in Week 1, Gronk is averaging about four catches and 50 yards a game. He could be back this week against the Jets, but who knows how long that will last? Truthfully, we could see the end of Gronk before we see the end of Brady.

Burkhead is Back!

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Sexy Rexy is back on the field, folks! On November 8, Burkhead returned to practice and is eligible to play once again as early as next week (December 2) at home against Minnesota. While I do not expect him to provide me with full vindication after naming him as my prediction for the team’s offensive MVP this season, he will still be a much-welcomed addition to an extremely thin stable of backs. This is still Sony Michel’s and James White’s backfield for the most part, but don’t be surprised if Burkhead has a few big games himself toward the end of the year. Welcome back, No. 34!

Will Gordon Finish Strong?

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Since Week 4, when Josh Gordon made his Pats debut against Miami, he has hauled in a total of 26 receptions for 477 yards and two scores. Over the past five games alone, he’s averaged over four catches and 79 yards on about 10 targets per game. That’s a pretty solid return on a fifth-round pick; I don’t care who it’s in regard to. But with Josh Gordon comes “those other risks,” the off-field shenanigans that have bogged him down his entire career. So far, he’s handled himself very well in New England, but when the heat is on and he starts facing the pressure that comes with being a part of a winning team for once, will he stay the course? I’ve seen nothing that gives me any indication he won’t, but keep those fingers crossed, Pats Nation; we still have a long way to go with Flash Gordon.

A Young and Improving Secondary

I know these storylines have been pretty offense-heavy so far, but there’s really not a whole lot to sift through on the defensive side of the ball. I will say that I’ll be keeping my eye on the secondary, though; while Stephon Gilmore and Jason McCourty have the top-two corner spots on lock, there’s an interesting mix of young talent behind them battling for position, especially with second-rounder Duke Dawson coming off I.R. a few weeks ago and looking ready to make his debut. Other rookies like Keion Crossen and J.C. Jackson, the latter of whom has already made some big plays this year, bear watching as well. Recently signed former Raiders safety Obi Melifonwu is a raw, talented and still very young piece the team is taking a flyer on, too.

Again, a lot can still happen before January, so be sure to keep checking in with The 300s for all your Patriots news and notes on the march to Ring No. 6.

Why the Celtics Need to Trade for Anthony Davis NOW…Like TODAY

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The idea of Anthony Davis in a green and white uniform is something Celtics fans have been dreaming about for what seems like half a decade now. However, as time wears on, it seems like the chance of that happening continues to become slimmer and slimmer.

Much of this has to do with Danny Ainge’s seeming reluctance to trade away the assets it would take to acquire a guy like Davis. There’s also the fact he did already trade away one of his precious lottery picks for Kyrie before last season. Plus, after two-straight seasons that saw the Pelicans lose at least 48 games, they had quite the resurgence last year – 48 wins and a first-round playoff series victory over Portland – and are now a respectable 7-7 so far in 2018.

Still, there may have never been a more perfect time to trade for Davis than right now, and Danny NEEDS to make a Godfather offer to New Orleans ASAP to get it done. I’ll tell you why.

I’ve already made note of the fact, as have plenty of others out there, that the Celtics offense has been absolutely putrid this year. Not only do they currently rank 24th in terms of points per game, but they are dead last in the league in terms of points in the paint.

Mattes, who cares? The NBA is all about the three-point shot now. Bigs are a dying breed – if they’re not completely dead already. It’s all about SHOOTERS, SHOOTERS, SHOOTERS!

First and foremost, while Davis is indeed listed at 6’10”, he is more than just a “big.” Even though he may only have a career 31-percent mark from deep, he has shot over 34 percent from three for two consecutive seasons, including a really impressive 40 percent last year.

He can also pass, defend the rim (3.1 blocks per game this season), and is athletic enough to get out in transition and run with all of the Celtics’ young gunners. Many people may not be aware that Davis was actually a point guard in high school, but he grew seven inches between his junior year and graduation – no, but really though – and made the switch to forward.

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This man has come a loooong way.

But it’s about so much more than who Davis is as a player. There’s no denying that Davis is a generational talent – a rock-solid top-five player in the league who would improve any squad in the Association.

Here’s a stat for you: Of the teams that finished in the bottom 10 in points in the paint last season – which did indeed include the Celtics – only four of them made the playoffs. One of those teams, the Houston Rockets, were so predicated on three-point shooting that they almost didn’t even need to step foot inside the arc to win last year, so I’m not going to count them. Therefore, in sum, only about 30 percent of the ten worst teams inside the paint made the playoffs last year. Basically, unless you have all-time shooting talent like Golden State or Houston, you still absolutely need some guys down low.

ESPN’s Kirk Goldsberry wrote an excellent and incredibly stat-driven article on the state of the Celtics offense right now. I highly suggest taking the time to read it all the way through, but here’s a great quick-hitter from that piece supporting the evidence I just mentioned:

Despite the league’s rising obsession with the 3, shots near the rim remain the best looks in the game. They’re essential. Not only do close-range shots yield points at the highest rates, but players attacking the paint also elevates everything else. Things like shooting fouls and offensive rebounds tick up. Those 3-pointers see more daylight.

Any basketball fan knows that strong play up front opens things up for the rest of the offense, and the Celtics’ current group of post men just aren’t getting it done. As Goldsberry also points out, Al Horford – our $29 million “force” up front – is attempting less than three shots within eight feet of the rim per game. That is just shameful. And while Aron Baynes and Danny Theis are two tough, solid role players, there is just nobody else down low who has the talent to pick up the slack right now.

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Still love ya, Al, but I’m gonna need a bit more than that.

The team has also been super skiddish in terms of their attack. They average less than 20 free throw attempts per game – only the Magic attempt less – and are all too quick to settle for ill-advised, risky jumpers.

Davis is third in the league in free throw attempts per game (8.5) and fourth in the league in points in the paint per game (14.4). He’s also tenth in offensive rebounds per game (3.5), which is another area the Celtics have struggled with mightily this season.

With a .500 record in a tough conference, New Orleans may be more willing than usual right now to listen to trade offers. And as I mentioned above, it’s also only going to get tougher to make a trade happen the more time goes on.

First, there’s the fact that both Philadelphia and Sacramento – both of whom determine the fate of the extra draft pick the Celtics receive in next June’s draft – are both playing extremely well this season, continuing to fade the value of what was once thought to be such a valuable asset. Also, as I mentioned earlier this week, with guys like Terry Rozier already starting to express their displeasure with being “just another one of the guys” on a crowded roster, the Celtics could soon lose all of the almost ridiculously unfair leverage they once held in their favor. And worst of all, another team  – e.g. Lakers, Rockets, Timberwolves, Warriors (yes, I’m serious; it could happen), etc. – could swoop in first and end the discussion altogether.

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You might be smirking now, Danny, but don’t get too cocky.

Look, it’s not going to be easy, and the Celtics will have to give up A TON to make it happen. But rather than spitball different scenarios, I think it’s safe to say the Celtics are one of the only teams in the NBA right now with enough young talent and draft picks to make it happen. I would be willing to give up ANYONE on the team to get this done – except maybe Jayson Tatum, but even still his inclusion wouldn’t necessarily be a non-starter for me – because Davis is just that good. Davis is also locked up for the next two seasons after this one, so it’s not like the team would be risking everything for a rental or short-term solution.

Somehow, someway, we need to get this one done, Danny. Get on that horn and make a call down to the Bayou IMMEDIATELY.

What the Hell is Going on With the Celtics Right Now?

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No, but really, though. What the hell?

After Sunday night’s 100-94 loss to the Portland Trail Blazers, the Celts are set to return home this week after a rough 1-4 road trip – which could have easily been 0-5 were it not for a furious fourth-quarter comeback which forced overtime against the two-win, atrocious Phoenix Suns. (Yeah, we struggled to beat the effing Suns!)

The Celts now currently sit sixth in the East, at 7-6, tied with the Charlotte Hornets and five games behind the 12-1 Raptors.

Yeah, I know it’s still early in the year, but again: what the literal hell?

For starters, after giving up just 99.5 points per game through the first eight games of the year, the Green gave up just about 110 points per contest over the past five games. Sure, this stat could be slightly skewed by last week’s OT game in Phoenix, but the team still allowed 115 points to the Nuggets last Monday and 123 to the Jazz on Friday night, both in regulation. As of Monday morning, they’re still somehow first in the NBA in defensive rating, but this past week really wasn’t so hot on that front.

Offensively, the team continues to struggle, although there have been slight improvements. Kyrie looks like he’s starting to get hot; after putting the team on his back with 39 points – 18 of which came in the fourth quarter and OT – against the Suns, he missed Friday night’s game against the Jazz due to his grandfather’s funeral. However, he averaged a solid 27.3 points per contest in the other games he played on the trip, and he’s now shooting over 40 percent from three on the year.

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Kyrie’s been cooking lately.

Jayson Tatum has looked good the past two games as well. Although he somehow only mustered up four points in Phoenix last Thursday, he’s shot exactly 50 percent in each of the past two games with totals of 21 and 27 points, respectively. The 300s favorite Marcus Morris continues to be a force off the bench as well, currently sitting third on the team in scoring in just 25 minutes of action each night. And finally, even though he’s not racking up the points, Marcus Smart has been a great facilitator all year long and is second on the team to Kyrie this year in assists.

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Yeah, Marcus. I see you dropping dimes out there.

Otherwise, though, there’s not really anything to hang your hat on. The Celtics rank only ahead of the Magic, Hawks, and Suns in terms of offensive rating. Again, I know we’ve only seen the team play 13-of-82 games at this point, which is a paltry 16 percent of the regular season action the C’s will take part in this year. A lot can still change, and I’m not saying to hit the panic button.

BUT MAYBE we’re starting to see signs of trouble, those that aren’t found on the stat sheet, which could be a slight cause for concern.

Earlier last week, there were rumblings that Terry Rozier was unhappy with his bench role after being one of the team’s studs (at times) in the playoffs last year. Rozier downplayed the rumors on Thursday, but he didn’t necessarily deny them outright (h/t ESPN):

“I go from starting in the playoffs to coming off the bench. … I’m pretty sure it’s not easy for nobody. But I’m not complaining. And, if you know me, I would never be the one to complain about it. I would never go to the media or bring out the unhappy thing. Like I said, people that know me know I wouldn’t do that. I’ve never been a selfish type of person, selfish player. You can tell the way I play I’m all about team.”

He said he wouldn’t “complain” or “go to the media” about it, but that certainly does not constitute a denial of the rumor itself. Not in the slightest. I’m not saying I blame him either, as he could probably start for most teams throughout the league, but this is definitely a situation to monitor.

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“Scary Terry” might soon become “Salty Terry” if the rumors are true.

And as much as I love Kyrie, the guy’s definitely a bit of a wild card. After rifling the ball into the stands after the game in Denver because some kid roasted him for almost 50 points that night – a move which I made sure to call him out for last week – he comes out with this comment after the team’s latest loss to Portland:

Really, man? So, having you – a former champion and THREE-time NBA Finals participant – Al Horford, and Gordon Hayward won’t cut it? You can’t express to them just what it takes to win a title, or at the very least get to an NBA Final – which, again, is something you’ve done yourself on multiple occasions?

For a guy who supposedly left Cleveland to be THE GUY, it doesn’t always seem as though Kyrie relishes the role. And while I’m not in the locker room and don’t want to just project, Horford and Hayward don’t really seem like big rah-rah-type leaders either.

So while it’s definitely too early to begin worrying about hard numbers and stats, it may not be too early to start monitoring the air in the locker room. As with any NBA roster loaded with talent, there comes a point where the “team-first” mentality can start to wane, for different reasons, after everyone gets a little taste of success.

I’m not jumping ship guys, and you shouldn’t either. But, Brad, it’s time to get ya boys in check now before it’s too late.

Patriots Titans Week 10 Game Preview, Odds, and Things to Watch For

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After last week’s win over the Packers, I think it’s safe to say the team is on a bit of a roll.

This week’s matchup with the Titans also marks the first of only three non-divisional games remaining on the schedule for the Pats this season. The other four consist of matchups against the Bills at home, the Dolphins in Miami, and the Jets TWICE.

Locking up to a top-two seed in the AFC looks like a foregone conclusion at this point, but this week’s opponent, the Tennessee Titans, definitely aren’t a pushover and shouldn’t be taken lightly, especially coming off a nice win in Dallas on Monday night.

As always, here’s a quick look at where, when, and how to watch the game along with the latest lines:

  • Location: Nissan Stadium (Nashville, TN)
  • Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 11, 1 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS
  • Odds (via Odds Shark): Patriots: -6.5 (spread) / Patriots: -270 (moneyline) / 46.5 (total)

It’s actually been tough to gauge exactly who the Titans are this season. Not only is their record dead even at 4-4, but they’ve also been quite streaky: lost to Miami in the season-opener; three-straight wins; three-straight losses; bye week; and, most recently, a 14-point win against the Cowboys.

After a rough, injury-plagued start to the season, Titans fourth-year quarterback Marcus Mariota has really started hit his stride the past two games. He looked dialed in on Monday night, completing 72 percent of his passes and posting two scores against a very good Dallas defense. His 272 total yards may not jump off the page, but 32 of those came on the ground, proving once again that he can get it done with both his arms and his legs.

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Mariota first made a name for himself as an exciting dual-threat stud at Oregon before being drafted No. 2 overall by the Titans in the 2015 NFL Draft. After two solid seasons to start off his NFL career – including a 3,775-total-yard, 26-TD season in Year 2 – Mariota regressed significantly in his third year last season. Even though the Titans made the playoffs in 2017, Mariota’s QB rating plummeted from 95.6 to 79.3, and he threw more picks than touchdowns.

Most people forget, though, that he was still trying to recover from a broken leg, which he suffered in December 2016; for a guy who’s used to relying on his wheels to hit peak performance, it makes sense that he hit a bit of a rough patch last year. But again, outside of some pretty horrid early-season performances this year, Mariota looks like he’s finally getting back on track. And after seeing Bears quarterback Mitch Trubisky run all over the Pats two weeks ago, Mariota can do some damage against this defense if he hits the second level.

Old friend Dion Lewis has also been playing much better for the Titans as of late. After signing with Tennessee this offseason – fresh off an 1,110-yard season with the Pats – he averaged just 3.4 yards per touch through the first six games of 2018. Then he exploded for 155 yards against the Chargers in London two weeks ago, followed up by a 122-yard performance this past Monday night. Derrick Henry was supposed to form a nice 1-2 punch with Lewis in the Titans’ backfield this season, but he has been a complete bust. This is Dion Lewis’s show.

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Still, as well as those two have played the past two weeks, the Titans offense stinks. At the moment, their offense ranks only ahead of the Bills and Cardinals, and they’ve yet to break 30 points on the year. Even worse, they’ve failed to score at least 14 points three times this season. While Corey Davis has all-world-level talent as a receiver, he hasn’t been able to put it all together and have the type of impact the Titans were expecting from their former top-10 pick. There really just isn’t a lot to talk about in terms of the Titans passing attack.

On the flip side, Tennessee’s defense is elite. They are currently ranked fifth overall, and they are No. 1 in terms of points per game, allowing just 17.6 per contest on the year. They are especially stout against the run, as pointed out by FantasyPro’s Mike Tagliere in his primer this week:

They’ve allowed a mediocre 4.03 yards per carry, but have allowed just two rushing touchdowns and no receiving touchdowns to running backs…There hasn’t been a running back who’s totaled more than 85 rushing yards against them and there hasn’t been a running back who’s totaled more than 51 yards through the air against them.

Therefore, both James White and Sony Michel, if he comes back this week, will have their work cut out for them on Sunday. Even after scoring 30-plus points in five of their last six contests, expect the Pats offense to cool down a bit in the Volunteer State. (Although there is one particular guy – with whom you should all be quite familiar – that has been a gigantic piece of swiss cheese for the Titans this season. More on him in a second.)

Storylines

(Belichick to Face One of His All-Time Greats): As we often see at least one or twice a year, Belichick will be squaring off against one of his former protégés on the other sideline. This time around, though, it’s a bit different, as former Patriots standout linebacker Mike Vrabel is now the man running the show in Tennessee. Vrabel is one of my all-time favorite Pats players. He was a key piece of each of the first three Super Bowl-winning teams, spending eight memorable seasons in a Pats uniform. He was always such a commanding presence and helped keep the rest of the team in line, so it’s no surprise he’s shot up the coaching ranks so quickly. It’s always fun to watch the student try and take on the master – usually, though, a part of me doesn’t want to actually root for the student.

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Kudos to you, Mikey. You deserve everything you’ve got so far.

(Both Teams are Quite Well-Behaved): While their effectiveness and talent-level are eons apart, the Pats and Titans offenses are the two least penalized in the league. In fact, the Titans are the only team in the league that has yet to commit at least 40 penalties on the season. This shouldn’t be all that surprising considering the coaches running both squads, but it’s tough to get either side to beat themselves.

(Malcolm Butler Has Been a Complete Sieve): Look, I’m still not over him sitting out the entire Super Bowl against the Eagles – seriously, there will NEVER be a reason good enough – but there’s no denying that Malcolm Butler has been downright awful this season. Per Rotoworld’s Rich Hribar, Butler has given up over 600 receiving yards and seven scores in coverage this season, which are both a league high. I’ll always appreciate what you did for us, Malcom, but oh how the mighty have fallen. Maybe the “revenge game” narrative will give him a spark this week, or maybe he really has just become that bad.

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It’s been a rough year for Malcolm so far in Tennessee.

(Will We Get Sony Back?): Even after Cordarrelle Patterson’s solid running performance on Sunday night, the Pats need Sony Michel back to bolster the team’s backfield. While I would rather he just sit out through next week’s bye, he’s apparently expected to play on Sunday, per Schefty:

Stay tuned.

Prediction

Even though the Titans have been solid on defense, I think the Pats end up scoring a bit more than people expect this week. Bill is going to pick on Malcolm Butler at any chance he gets, to the point where he and Josh will scheme it just so Brady has to go right at him. They did the very same against Logan Ryan – another current Tennessee corner and former Patriot – in the playoffs last year, and Bill’s just petty enough to do it again. Mariota benefits from a little home-cooking and does OK, but still only manages one score through the air. Dion gets a little revenge as well, but in the end the Pats pull it out 24-17.

Real Talk: I’m Not Mad at Jamal Murray and Kyrie Needs to Relax

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Look, sometimes you just have to buck up and admit when you got got.

Last night, Denver Nuggets point guard Jamal Murray went off on the Celtics in his team’s 115-107 victory in the Mile High City last night, scoring 48 points on 63 percent shooting, including five triples.

He tried his damnedest, however, to break the 50-point mark by hoisting up a completely unnecessary three-point attempt at the buzzer – and that little move is what irked Kyrie Irving and a few other Celtics teammates so much on Monday night.

Seriously, with the way Kyrie acted – firing the ball into the stands after rebounding Murray’s missed last-second shot attempt – you would’ve thought Murray took a shit in the Celtics’ Gatorade cooler. Kyrie even doubled-down on his reaction after the game (h/t ESPN.com):

“I mean, what kind of competitor wouldn’t it bother? I understand if we fouled him, going to the free throw line. … I don’t want to make a big deal out of it…Obviously, I was pissed at the game, but it’s time to decompress and move on. Congratulations to him having 48 points. …But the ball deserves to go in the crowd after a bulls— move like that. So I threw it in the crowd.”

Honestly, dude, relax. Love ya. Mean it. But you’re acting like a third-grader who didn’t get one last push on the swing before recess was over even though the other kid got to go TWICE.

And to fire the ball into the stands over it? Really?

To be entirely honest, I’ve never been one to buy into the whole “running up the score” myth anyway. I cannot stand it when a team gets criticized for simply continuing to do what they are supposed to do – score points and win the game! – in ANY sport, at ANY time. I don’t care if you’re up three touchdowns with two minutes left in the fourth quarter, toss the hail mary and go for another score if you want! Up five goals at the end of the third period? Rip one from the blue line straight at the goalie’s chest and make him stop the damn puck.

If you’re a professional sports team and you can’t prevent the other team from scoring on you, that’s not their problem; it’s yours. Stop them next time.

Look, I’m not saying that sportsmanship isn’t important, and I’m not endorsing the idea of acting like a selfish douche out on the field of play. I’ll also note that, yes, in that situation most players would have simply let the clock run out and not have gone for another basket. The Celtics weren’t even trying to defend the shot, and they were caught off guard.

But I think the real anger had to do more with the fact that they let a career 13.6-point-per-game player drop more than three times that amount on them last night. Or maybe it was the fact that it was their second-straight loss to a team that they were expecting to beat. Or maybe it was the fact that loss gives them four already on the year in just 10 games.

Regardless, let’s stop vilifying a 21-year-old who just had the game of his life and maybe just got a little too caught up in the moment. Monday night was his night. Deal with it.

End rant.

Patriots Packers Postgame Reaction and Quick Hits

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In what was supposed to be an epic battle between two of the best signal-callers to ever grace the field, both Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers were about as average as it comes in the Pats’ 31-17 win over the Packers on Sunday night.

Much of this had to do with stellar defensive play on both sides, as both quarterbacks failed to crack 300 passing yards. In fact, were it not for two big catches on consecutive plays at the end of the third quarter by Packers rookie Marquez Valdes-Scantling, totaling 50 yards, Rodgers would have barely topped 200 yards. The Packers also held Brady to just over 220 yards and no scores heading into the fourth quarter.

Basically, if you took the over and were expecting offensive firepower all night, you were severely disappointed.

I will also humbly eat a gigantic piece of crow pie this week, as I was a bit too quick to write off Cordarrelle Patterson as a runner in last week’s game notes. While I do stand by the fact he looked terrible outside of one play in Buffalo, the 27-year-old athletic specimen looked fantastic toting the rock last night, rumbling his way to 61 yards on 11 carries – which included muscling his way into the endzone on a five-yard goal-line score in the second quarter.

(To be fair, two games is still a pretty small sample size from which to draw any conclusions. But all I’m saying is that Patterson looked great last night. Good for you, bud.)

Here are a few other takeaways from last night’s solid win:

  • Trey Flowers, man. He finished third on the team in tackles and had a half-sack to boot. But, again, it’s what he does outside the stat sheet that truly counts, as his motor doesn’t stop all game long. The play that stood out to me was a 2nd-and-5 attempt for the Packers with about 1:50 to go in the first quarter, where Flowers absolutely plows through his first blocker and quickly sheds the next two guys on a DOUBLE-block to get in Rodgers’s face, forcing an incomplete pass and a third down. The guy continues to be an absolute force, especially these past couple of weeks. There’s just not much else to say.
  • Kyle Van Noy had another nice night as well, particularly as a run-stopper, finishing with nine solid tackles.
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The guy still can’t cover worth a lick, but he does do everything else pretty well and has been one of the D’s top performers this year.

  • Even with Shaq Mason being out this week, Brady was only sacked twice and hit just one other time. Much of this, however, might have to do with the fact that Brady has been blitzed at the lowest rate in the league this season, as pointed out during the broadcast last night by Cris Collinsworth. Not to take anything away from the offensive line, but apparently teams haven’t really been gunning too hard to get after him – which does, in fact, make a lot of sense considering the Pats’ dink-and-dunk approach which doesn’t call for Brady to hold on to the ball for much more than a second or two. Either way, it’s a good thing. I just thought it was interesting.
  • As if he needed yet another feather in his cap, Brady also became the first player ever to surpass 80,000 total yards in his career (including the postseason). The previous record-holder was Peyton Manning, with 79,978, but Brady took the top spot on the team’s go-ahead drive in the fourth quarter last night.

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  • I couldn’t believe my eyes, but Dwayne Allen actually had a catch last night! He was able to muster up a whole 21 yards on ONE whole target across 66 snaps, all while collecting even more of his totally reasonable $4 MILLION SALARY this year. (Catching the sarcasm at all there?)
  • Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon are the best pair of receivers Brady’s had in YEARS. They both dominated last night.

So, while the offense was definitely slowed a bit by a well-performing Green Bay defense, Brady & Co. were able to do just enough to grab a respectable win. Just over halfway through the season, the team is now five games over .500, and besides two respective matchups with the Vikings and Steelers, the Pats only have the Titans, Jets, Bills, and Dolphins left to worry about. (No really, though! That’s it!)

Be sure to check back in with The 300s this Thursday for our preview of Sunday’s matchup with the Titans down in Nashville.

Quick Pats Bills Game Notes/Pats Packers Week 9 Preview

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Remember when the Dolphins were tied with us for first in the AFC East? LOL.

Balance has now been restored in the universe, as the Pats are once again completely in the driver’s seat in the AFC East for the 4,568th year in a row. After Monday night’s 25-6 victory over the Bills, the Pats now lead in the division by two games and soon more.

Ya boy Mattes was in NYC for the past couple of days – and I cannot even TELL you just how good it felt to be rockin’ a Sox hat around that city this week – so I was unable to get up my review of the game on Tuesday. Therefore, before getting into Sunday night’s tilt with the Packers, here are a few quick things of note from the other night in Orchard Park:

  • Even though Derek Anderson is a statue in the pocket, the pass-rush looked excellent. Trey Flowers is an absolute monster, and I will personally pay whatever I have to in order to keep him around (he’s a free agent after this season). He may not have had any sacks, but there was one first quarter sequence where Flowers completely blew up one of the Bills’ cute, little Wildcat plays (what is this? 2008?), and then on the very next play he did his best Vince Carter impression, jumping sky-high in the air to block an Anderson pass attempt. He was just everywhere on Monday night and is the unquestioned heart and soul of the defense. Adrian Clayborn, Malcolm Brown, and Kyle Van Noy, who had two sacks on the night, were also noticeably active up front as well.
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Bill, please pay this man!

  • Although Van Noy was great on Monday night, he is a complete one-trick pony: excellent pass-rusher but absolutely USELESS in coverage. Seriously, he couldn’t cover a guy using a walker. Once again the Pats were able to stop the run but were completely carved up by the receiving game out of the backfield (LeSean McCoy had six catches for 82 yards while totaling just 13 yards on 12 carries). There were rumors this week that the Pats were looking at bringing back old friend Jamie Collins, which shows that even the team knows how soft we are in terms of pass-coverage over the middle. Seriously, it’s bad.
  • We desperately need Sony Michel back. Were it not for Devin McCourty’s key pick-six in the fourth quarter, the game would’ve been a helluva lot closer than it was. Much of that had to do with the fact that the running game was absolutely non-existent. And no, Cordarrelle Patterson absolutely did not look good out there; outside of one big 22-yard run, Patterson had 16 yards on nine carries. Sure, he is a physical specimen, but truthfully for most of the night he looked like a big buck trying to find its way out of a small barn. Nice try, Bill, but please don’t ever try that little experiment ever again.
  • Jason McCourty was solid once more, and he and Patrick Chung really helped to overcompensate for the guys in front of them all game.
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After a rough summer, J-Mac is certainly proving his worth this season.

  • Just like I said, now that Julian Edelman is back and Josh Gordon is in the fold, things have opened up once again for Chris Hogan. He simply cannot be a No. 1 or 2 option, but he is still an above-average third or fourth option for Brady, and some may be surprised to hear that he actually has 190 total receiving yards over the past three games.

On to the Pats/Packers preview, which will be a bit more brief than past primers. As always, here’s a quick look at where, when, and how to watch the game along with the latest lines:

  • Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, MA)
  • Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 4, 8:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: NBC
  • Odds (via Odds Shark): Patriots: -5.5 (spread)/Patriots: -235 (moneyline)/56.5 (total)

This is a game that has the NFL licking its chops: Tom Brady vs. Aaron Rodgers in a Sunday night primetime matchup. Is that a pylon in your pants Mr. Goodell, or are you just happy to see me?

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But all joking aside, this is truly a treat. It is absolutely criminal that the two greatest quarterbacks, possibly ever but definitely in the game right now, will be squaring off for just the SECOND time ever – the last one being a 26-21 Packers victory all the way back in 2014! That is just shameful.

The debate over who is truly better will rage on in NFL circles forever. Rodgers may not have all the stats and accolades Brady’s compiled throughout his career, but he’s also seven years younger. He’s also touting a pristine 13-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio this season compared to Brady’s 16-to-7 mark, and there’s a great argument to be made that he may have had less talent around him – especially on defense – throughout his entire career. But for now, even Rodgers himself ended the debate on Tuesday, per ESPN:

“I let you guys worry about those types of conversations,” Rodgers said of any debate about which player is better. “I think that’s end-of-career conversations. … I’m just worried about winning right now. He’s got five championships, so that ends most discussions, I think.”

But enough about those two. I think even the most casual fan understands that they’re both pretty good at football.

As far as Rodgers’s receiving options go, other than No. 1 receiver Davante Adams it’s a complete crapshoot each week regarding who the other top pass-catchers will be, much to the chagrin of fantasy owners everywhere. Adams is one of the game’s very best receivers – currently fifth in the league in receiving yards per game (98.5) – and will likely match up with Stephon Gilmore. But after that it’s between the oft-injured but resilient Randall Cobb or younger guys like Geronimo Allison and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. And don’t forget about Jimmy Graham, no longer one of the game’s elite tight ends but still a decent player nonetheless.

Aaron Jones and his 6.2 yards per carry will most likely lead the way in the backfield, especially after this week’s trade of Ty Montgomery, with Jamaal Williams serving as a more-than-capable No. 2 guy. This used to be a three-headed approach, but Jones’s 86-yard and one-score performance on just 14 touches Sunday presumably solidified his spot as the top dog.

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Go get this guy on your fantasy squad immediately.

As pointed out by Joey Ballgame earlier today, the Packers feature a top-10 defense and are fifth-best against the pass (even though they did trade away star safety HaHa Clinton-Dix to Washington this week, which is certainly not insignificant). They are beatable on the ground, though, coming in at No. 22, so hopefully Sony’s back this week in what should be a great matchup for him.

Prediction

This one’s tough to gauge, as it could really be anybody’s game. Both teams feature solid, multi-pronged offensive attacks, with the Packers gaining a significant edge on defense. I feel like it’ll be a beautiful boxing match between two heavyweights that goes the full 12 rounds. In the end, though, youth wins out and the Pats fall at home 28-24.

Checking In on the Celtics After First Two Weeks of Action

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The Celtics 2018 season has been officially underway for about two weeks now, but with everyone focusing on the 2018 WORLD CHAMPION Boston Red Sox and the 5-2 Patriots lately, the C’s have gotten a bit lost in the shuffle.

Never fear! That’s why ya boy Mattes is here to catch you up to speed.

Off the top, the Green are currently sitting second in the Atlantic Division and fourth overall in the Eastern Conference with a 4-2 record. (The Toronto Raptors are 6-0, sitting in first place in the division and tied for first in the conference with the Milwaukee Bucks. Kawhi Leonard is absolutely dominating, and our neighbors to the north could definitely be a problem this year.) Besides a very disappointing loss to the Orlando Magic last week, I’m pleased with our record so far.

However, the offense, until Saturday night, has been a bit lackluster. Besides Marcus Morris (more on him in a minute), the team has really struggled shooting the rock, especially from deep. Both Jayson Tatum and Kyrie Irving are shooting less than 30 percent from behind the arc so far this season, and as a team the Celts currently rank second-worst in offensive rating. After two solid showings to start off the year, Jaylen Brown also had a rough three-game stretch wherein he shot 19 percent overall before getting back on track with 19 points against Detroit two nights ago.

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He may still lead the team in points per game (16.7), but Tatum’s yet to rediscover last season’s lethal three-point stroke.

On the flip side, their defense has been top-notch, ranking first in the league with a very solid 96.73 rating. (Basically, this is how many points they should be expected to give up per every 100 possessions, and it is pretty much spot on with the 96.3 points per game they have given up through the first six contests so far.)

In fact, the D has been so good that Blake Griffin – who was off to a ferocious start heading into Saturday night’s contest (33.8 points per game through the Pistons’ first four games) – was held to just seven points by Jaylen Brown this weekend. Opponents are also only hitting 28 percent of their threes against the C’s this year, which is the No. 1 mark in the league.

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Jaylen showed out in Motor City on Saturday night.

So, to sum it up: the defense has been phenomenal so far, and the offense needs to pick it up.

Now, here are few other noteworthy bits from the team’s first half-month of action:

  • Marcus Morris is now officially my new favorite player. I predicted he might very well ascend to such status during the preseason, when he was on a tear and making sure, through both his words AND his play, to set the tone for he and his fellow benchmates this season. Even though he’s technically coming off the pine, he’s currently second on the team with 14.3 points per game and shooting about 50 percent in terms of both field-goal and three-point percentage. This man is on an absolute mission this season, and there’s no doubt who the leader of the newly coined BWA is and will be moving forward.
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That’s right, Marcus. You’ve certainly been backing up that big mouth so far.

  • Gordon Hayward has been solid but unspectacular so far, averaging 11 points on 42 percent shooting through five contests. (He sat out the team’s game against the Knicks to get some extra rest). Most importantly, however, he does not seem to be having any ill effects from the gruesome injury he suffered last year.
  • Another guy trying to make his way back into the rotation after a season-ending injury, Daniel Theis, exploded for 17 points in 19 minutes on Saturday night to go along with eight rebounds. His presence has been especially significant with Aron Baynes being out the past three games due to a hamstring injury. Once Baynes is back in action, the Celtics will have a pretty nice trio of bigs – the third, of course, being Al Horford – to use down low. (AND don’t forget about rookie – and 300s favorite – Robert “Bob” Williams and what he could potentially do, too!)

Again, it’s only been two weeks, so no need to over-exaggerate anything so far – either positively or negatively – as we still have a very long way to go. But, from what we’ve seen so far, I think Celtics Nation is going to be in for a good time this year, as expected.

That’s it for now. Be sure to keep checking in with The 300s for Celtics talk all season long!

Patriots Bills Week 8 Game Preview, Odds, and Things to Watch For

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So this might be one of the easiest previews I’m going to write this season, as I expect this one to be an absolute rout. With all due to respect to Papa Giorgio – our resident Bills/Islanders/Mets fan and apparent masochist – this is going to be child’s play for the Patriots and there’s really not a whole lot to talk about. Let’s hop right to it.

As always, here’s a quick look at where, when, and how to watch the game along with the latest lines:

  • Location: New Era Field (Orchard Park, NY)
  • Kickoff: Monday, Oct. 29, 8:15 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN
  • Odds (via Odds Shark): Patriots: -14 (spread) / Patriots: -1053 (moneyline) / 44 (total)

The lines for this game really tell the whole story: the Pats are two-touchdown favorites on the road; they’re expected to be responsible for over 60 percent of the game total; and there’s a FOUR-FIGURE moneyline. (For those who don’t know what that last part means, basically it means you would need to bet over $1,000 just to win $100 by picking the Pats to win on Monday night.)

I’m not going to sugarcoat it: the Bills (2-5) are pretty bad. For a team that made the playoffs just last season, it’s actually pretty incredible to see how far they’ve tumbled in such short order.

To be fair, they have at least played pretty well on the defensive side of the ball, currently sitting at No. 11 overall and No. 16 in points per game allowed. They’re also tied for eighth in the league with 19 sacks, led by defensive end Jerry Hughes (4.5 sacks) and the ageless wonder in the middle of the defensive line, Kyle Williams (3.5 sacks).

Second-year cornerback Tre’Davious White is also a criminally underrated player, as he is truly one of the game’s elite. (You might remember him as the guy who Gronk cheap-shotted – resulting in a one-game suspension – the last time these two teams played in Buffalo on December 3 of last season.) In fact, he was so good as a rookie last season that Pro Football Focus not only anointed him their Defensive Rookie of the Year, but they also went so far as to rank him as the No. 2 overall corner in the entire league. The Bills absolutely stole him with the 27th-overall pick in the 2017 draft, and he could be a problem for Josh Gordon this week.

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White is one of the game’s premiere young defenders.

On offense, it’s just a sad state of affairs. To start, Derek Anderson will be the Bill’s starting quarterback this week. He may truly be the only quarterback in the NFL right now who is a worse option than Nathan Peterman – the Bill’s only other healthy signal-caller, with a career 3-to-9 TD-to-INT ratio – but he’s still going to be the guy leading the way for Buffalo on Monday night.

There once was a time where it looked like Anderson might be something. Back in 2007, as a fresh-faced sophomore, he led the Cleveland Browns to a 10-5 record, which was by far the closest they have been to making the postseason since 2002. He also compiled over 3,700 passing yards and 29 touchdowns that season. You can’t ever take that away from him.

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Derek Anderson – back in the glory days.

After that one season, however, he fell completely off a cliff. Though he ended up making 26 more starts over the next three years – two with Cleveland and the third with Arizona – he has spent the last seven seasons holding a clipboard as the backup for Cam Newton in Carolina. In just his fifth start since 2011 last Sunday, he threw three picks and could not even crack 200 yards. Simply put: there’s no need to worry about the Bill’s passing game this week.

The Bills do have a decent pair of guys in the backfield, led by LeSean McCoy. For all the flak McCoy gets for his injury woes, you might be surprised to hear that he has actually started at least 15 games in three of the last four seasons heading into 2018. The only problem is, minor ailments and game script have kept him from making much noise outside of two games this year; besides two solid 19-plus-touch, 90-plus-yard performances in Weeks 5 and 6, Shady has averaged just 7.8 touches and 31.8 yards across his other four games. The man is coming off of two straight 1,500-yard seasons before this, though, so he can definitely do some damage if he does play. Chris Ivory is a solid backup as well, and, per ESPN’s Mike Rodak, he’s expected to play after dealing with a hammy issue earlier in the week.

(MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: According to Schefty, Shady has cleared concussion protocol and will play tonight.)

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I’m not sleeping on you, Shady. I know what you’re capable of.

Storylines

(Gronk’s Time to Shine): Per usual, Buffalo native Rob Gronkowski will be looking to feast in his old stomping grounds. He just seems to hit another level every time he’s in Buffalo. Per Rich Hribar of Rotoworld, in seven career games in Upstate New York, Gronk has averaged 9.6 targets, 6.3 catches, 104.3 yards, and one touchdown per contest. After not having Gronk for the Bears game last week, the big tight end returned to practice Thursday afternoon and all signs point toward him being ready to go on Monday night. Especially considering how last year’s game ended up there, Gronk will be chomping at the bit to get out on the field and dominate, feeding off of what is sure to be a rowdy Bills Mafia crowd that should be on his case all game long.

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Get ready to watch Gronk feast on Monday night.

(Gordon to Slow His Roll): As mentioned above, Josh Gordon is very likely to see a lot of coverage from Tre’Davious White this week, limiting his upside and potential impact on Monday night. Since he will be taking up most of White’s attention, however, that should open things up for the rest of the offense – including for former Bill, Chris Hogan, who posted six catches last week against the Bears and has over 60 yards in each of the Pats’ past two games. I’m not saying Gordon is going to be invisible in this one, but do expect his red-hot play to finally cool down a bit this week.

(What You Got, Kenjon?): With Sony Michel very unlikely to play in this week’s contest, former Panthers and Eagles (and Oregon Ducks!) running back Kenjon Barner will serve as the between-the-tackles compliment to James White in Week 8. White will still dominate most of the backfield touches, but Barner will be called upon to tote the rock quite a bit, especially if the Pats go up big, as expected. Last week, he carried the ball 10 times for 36 yards after Michel went down and has averaged over four yards a carry for his career. Thankfully, Michel should be coming back at some point over the next couple of weeks, and hopefully Barner can get it done in the meantime.

Prediction

This will be an absolute massacre. The Pats will be up by at least two scores at the half, if not more, and Derek Anderson will demonstrate even further that it’s probably time to hang ’em up for good. The Pats win this one in an absolute blowout, 37-12.