Patriots/Texans Week 1 Preview, Odds, & Things to Watch For

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As I sit here and write this, the 2018 NFL season has already officially begun, with the Eagles beating the Falcons in last night’s season opener, 18-12. We are now just about 48 hours away from REAL and MEANINGFUL Patriots action.

The team is set to square off against the Houston Texans at Gillette Stadium on Sunday. Before we get into a game preview, here’s a couple quick hits on when and where to watch the game along with a few of the latest lines:

  • Kickoff: Sunday, Sept. 9, 1 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS (Check local listings)
  • Odds (via Odds Shark): Patriots: -6.5 (spread)/Patriots: -230 (moneyline)/50.5 (over/under)

This will be a matchup between what should be two of the AFC’s premier squads in 2018. Although the Texans missed out on the playoffs last year, that’s most likely due to the fact they lost then-super-rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson to an ACL tear just before Week 9, when the team was 3-4. Sure, they technically had a losing record with him under center before the injury, but of those seven games four were against playoff teams, and another was a mere three-point loss against a solid Seahawks team in which Watson threw for over 400 yards and four touchdowns to go along with another 67 yards on the ground. Watson also had 21 total touchdowns on the season at the time he went down.

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I do think that Watson will regress a bit this year, as his touchdown rate was just silly last season, but he’s still probably the most talented quarterback the Texans have ever had in their 15-year history. Let’s not forget Watson also totaled 342 yards and two touchdowns against the Pats when the teams squared off last season, in what was just his third-ever NFL game. He, DeAndre Hopkins, and Lamar Miller form a pretty solid trio on the offensive side of things.

But enough about Watson. The Texans will also have two of their top defenders back this season, J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus, both of whom played just five games each for the team last year. Not only have the two combined for ONE HUNDRED AND FREAKIN’ EIGHT sacks since Mercilus’s rookie year in 2012, but Houston’s defense – which was a top-three unit in both 2015 and 2016 – fell all the way to 20th without them last year. I expect Houston’s D to be solid once again in 2018 if both guys can stay on the field. This offseason, the team also added safety Tyrann Mathieu – aka the Honey Badger and one of my absolute favorite players in the league – and he is expected to inject some much-needed skill and energy into the team’s defensive backfield.

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He’s baaaaaaaaack.

OK. OK. But what about the Pats?

Well, this game is going to be all about timing routes and quick passes. (Hello, James White!) Brady is going to need to get the ball out quickly, and as long as he doesn’t get knocked around by Houston’s nasty pass-rush he could carve it up between the 20s. Aaron Colvin and a 34-year-old Johnathan Joseph are also a pretty lackluster pair of corners, so TB12 shouldn’t have too much trouble moving the ball as long as he stays standing.

The Texans actually were a top-15 team against the run last season, so I wouldn’t expect a huge game on the ground for the Pats offense. White and Rex Burkhead will likely be sent out of the backfield quite often, especially with the team being expected to take it slow with the latter. Jeremy Hill could actually get a little bit more burn than expected as well, as the team will still need someone to move the chains between the tackles and on the goal line.

As far as the defense goes, the Pats (hopefully) improved pass-rush should be able to do some serious work against the Texans HORRENDOUS offensive line, which was ranked dead-last by Pro Football Focus this offseason. It may be tough to corral Watson, though, which will probably force him out of the pocket and on the run quite a bit. Therefore, Dont’a Hightower and the rest of the linebacking corps will need to be on high alert throughout this one.

Storylines to Keep an Eye On

(Welcome to New England, Trent Brown): Brady’s new blindside protector certainly has his work cut out for him. As mentioned above, the Texans feature one of the league’s most ferocious pass-rushing units, and this will be Brown’s first chance to prove himself in a Pats uniform. He’s received very positive reviews throughout most of the offseason, but let’s just hope Watt & Co. don’t give him fits in his home debut.

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Hopefully he’s still smiling around 4 p.m. on Sunday afternoon.

(James White is the X-Factor): With the team’s thin receiving corps and the need for Brady to get the ball out quickly in this one, I expect White to be HUGE for the Pats on Sunday. Not only can Brady check down to him in a hurry, but White’s underrated ability to carry the rock can also help keep the Texans D guessing, especially when the team runs out the Pony offense, which I also expect to see a lot of.

(Who Will Step Up Behind Hogan?): Barring another freak injury or Johnathan Joseph traveling back in time to his Pro Bowl days, Chris Hogan will be the team’s leading receiver in Week 1. But after that, who is going to step up? Will it be Phillip Dorsett, who looked solid in the team’s dress rehearsal? Will it be Cordarrelle Patterson, who has the skills to be a unique offensive weapon? Will it be Riley McCarron, a dark horse who was just promoted from the practice squad on Thursday? It’s anyone’s guess at this point.

Prediction

Save for some minor worry regarding Brady’s protection in this one, I still think the Pats are far and away the better overall team. Belichick won’t let Watson light him up two years in a row. Plus, Trey Flowers, Deatrich Wise, Adrian Clayborn, and the rest of the boys up front on defense should be able to consistently get in his face and throw him off his game. There are also still enough weapons on the Pats offense for them to move the ball and score some points against Houston’s D, as long as their fearsome crew up front is kept at bay. The Pats take this one 24-14.

The 300s Patriots Predictions

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The NFL season kicks off in mere hours and even though the Patriots aren’t playing tonight, it’s still a solid excuse to order some pizza and wings and throw back the last few Sam Summers in your fridge. With about 70 hours to go until the Pats kick off, the staff here at The 300s shared their final predictions for the upcoming Patriots season.

Red
Let’s be candid here; on the last episode of The 300s Podcast I picked the Steelers to beat the Patriots in the AFC Championship game this year, but that was BEFORE the entire Steelers organization started openly trashing Le’Veon Bell to everyone in the media. I did not expect him to actually hold out into the regular season. So with that being said I would like to issue a referendum and put my support behind the Patriots reaching their 9th Super Bowl in the Brady/Belichick era and winning it all for their 6th ring together.

Its so easy to take the field, but I just don’t feel confident about any of them. The Eagles are trying to repeat which hasn’t happened since the Patriots did it in 2003-04 and they’re relying on Nick Foles until Carson Wentz comes back from a torn ACL. Despite his SB MVP trophy, I would not want to put my repeat aspirations on the shoulders of Foles.

Just looking at the AFC who are the biggest challengers? The Steelers are in open rebellion against the crown and look like a team about to collapse into chaos. The Chiefs are banking on a guy with 35 career Pass Attempts in Patrick Mahomes. Pass. The Jaguars are a legit threat, but that is a team built around a ton of young guys who I would like to see them prove it for another year before I crown them anything. Plus Blake Bortles is always ready to implode with a handful of awful games.

Gun to head I’m taking the Patriots to get back to their winning ways. Yes, the defense was abysmal last year, but they were also ONE stop away from winning the Super Bowl. So with an improved defensive line (Danny Shelton, Adrian Clayborn, Derek Rivers) and the return of Dont’a Hightower, I like that defense to improve this year. The offense will be a work in progress while Julian Edelman is out with his suspension, but the team figured it out without him for 16 games last year so I think they will make it work.

I’m still predicting a 12-4 record, but with the recent news out of Pittsburgh, I’m taking the Patriots to go to, and win, Super Bowl LIII.

Big Z
I’m not predicting Tom Brady’s demise. That would be just as foolish as betting against the house in blackjack. I do wonder who the hell he is going to throw the ball to, though. Gronk is back, but the receiving corps is pretty thin after that. Brandin Cooks and Danny Amendola are gone. Julian Edelman will be coming back from a torn ACL after serving a four-game suspension. That leaves Chris Hogan as Brady’s top receiver. This feels a lot like 2006.

The coaching is good enough to get enough out of the defense, and the division is so weak there’s no real threat of the Patriots missing the playoffs. But in addition to appearing to be a bit thin in some areas, this team has played a lot of football over the last four years. I think they go 11-5, but run out of gas and lose on the road in the AFC Championship game.

Mattes
Insert overplayed line about how the Pats don’t have any good receivers and that we’re not going to be the same because of it here. OK, I THINK EVERYONE GETS IT BY NOW: the team’s a little thin in the receiving corps. I’m not going to sit here and waste any more time talking about it. We still have Gronk. We still have Hogan. Edelman will be back soon. We have a great stable of backs who can all (pretty much) catch the ball out of the backfield. Also, as mentioned in this week’s podcast, Cordarrelle Patterson could be a real sneaky solid player this year. No matter what, Brady’s going to figure it out. It’s Tom Fucking Brady. (Again, he once made it to an AFC Championship game with Reche Caldwell as his No. 1 receiver. Need I say more?)

I also think the defense will be much improved, especially the pass-rush. Considering the Pats were already fifth in the league in terms of points per game allowed last year, that’s saying something. I love the addition of Adrian Clayborn and Danny Shelton up front, and they’re only going to help the young guys like Flowers and Wise continue to wreak havoc on opposing QBs. Gilmore and McCourty will have the secondary on lock, and they will also be helped immensely by the team’s much-improved line. Sure, the linebackers are a little suspect, but I think the Pats have enough in the front and the back of the defense to make up for the lackluster play in the middle.

In order not to sound like a complete homer, I don’t like the injury trend we’ve seen so far this year, and it could be our undoing. With both of this year’s first-rounders currently on the shelf, one of which could be for the whole season, and other guys throughout the roster, especially along the O-line, dealing with other nagging ailments (like the “slight tear” in Burkhead’s knee), there could be a serious depth issues at certain points this year at multiple positions. But if everyone stays relatively healthy, I say we go 12-4 but unfortunately lose to the Jags or Steelers in the AFC Championship.

Papa Giorgi
Tom vs. Time reared it’s ugly head once again this week in which Brady declared he’d like to play another five years, for like the 15th year in a row. We get it Tom, you’re from the future sent back to protect John Connor.

Well Tom, Edward Furlong doesn’t need your help anymore and it’s time you went back the way you came. Stop holding the AFC East hostage and go play with your children and wife before she leaves you for someone younger. Tom vs. Time? More like Tom vs. time spent on the couch. Gisele, if you’re reading this, I am available to spend time with you every Sunday at 1. Prediction: nothing I say matters and Pats win the Super Bowl because why should I be happy?

 

Who got it right and who got it wrong? Let us know on Twitter @The300sBoston

What I Learned from the Tom Brady Tom vs Time Epilogue

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To be honest, not much. When news of this Tom vs Time epilogue dropped out of the clouds I was a little nervous. People were theorizing that he might use it as an opportunity to announce his retirement. What it really seemed like though was a PR market adjustment attempt by Tom Brady. This offseason was not a great one for Tom’s image as rumors of infighting with Belichick, rumors of him threatening to retire, all the Alex Guerrero drama, and then of course his buddy and TB12 client Julian Edelman getting popped for PEDs.

So it seems like Tom just wanted to put his spin on everything and let people know that despite all the noise, its just that; noise. He still intends to play for as long as he can aka “5 more years.” So we’ll see, but I don’t think that 5 minutes of Tom vs Time can make you feel anything other than confident Brady is focused on getting that next ring.

With all that being said…

There is TONS of fire flames TB12 swag in the pipelines that I can only hope is coming our way soon.

Did anyone else catch this?

TB12 SHOES. Sorry Kanye, but Tom Brady just became my lord and savior in the sneaker world. So you better believe I will have my eyes open and on the lookout for these babies.

And the 5 Rings hoodie?

Just take my credit card information right now.

Tom Brady teased us for years with the TB12 hats before we were able to actually buy them. Once they went on sale I did not wait around. I bought two.

What can I say, the man knows how to market. I will, however, NOT buy a vibrating foam roller. Come on now.

 

Nike Wastes No Time in Dropping the Colin Kaepernick Commercial and It is Awesome

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Mattes touched on the decision by Nike to put it all on the line yesterday and make Colin Kaepernick the face of its 30th anniversary “Just Do It” campaign. If you have access to the internet you saw the full spectrum of responses across the country. There were people applauding Nike’s brazen effort to directly go against their biggest partners in the NFL by dropping this campaign without even a whisper of a heads up. There were people legitimately burning their swoosh apparel and cutting the Nike logo off their clothes, so much so that there are already fundraising campaigns encouraging people to donate to charity rather than burning perfectly good clothing. Then of course there was everyone in between.

Hate Colin Kaepernick or love him. Call him a traitor or a true Patriot. Either way, this commercial accomplishes exactly what Nike does best. It pushes the boundaries, it boils down a whole bunch of noise into one message in a two minute and five second commercial. It’s bound to be polarizing, which is exactly what Nike wants and probably what this issue needs.

Take the venom out of the discussion and try to understand or at least empathize with why everyone believes what they believe. On every side. It’s silly that it may have taken a company that makes shoes for people to actually have that conversation.

Jets Make Sam Darnold the Youngest Week 1 Starting QB in the History of the NFL

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ESPN – The New York Jets have a new starting quarterback and a new face of the franchise.

Rookie Sam Darnold was officially named the starter Monday, coach Todd Bowles announced. He will become the youngest opening-day quarterback in NFL history. He will be 21 years, 97 days old when the Jets travel to play the Detroit Lions next Monday night.

Since my brain only works in fragments of movie quotes and pop culture references, lets set the table for this story first.

The Jets are going to make the newly minted 21-year-old, Sam Darnold, the youngest Week 1 starting QB in the history of the NFL.

GOOD LUCK!

The Jets went 5-11 last year with one of the oldest starting QBs in the league in Josh McCown aka Dolph Lundgren.

So it should come as no surprise the Jets turned to the No. 3 overall pick sooner than later to take over under center. Could a guy who just became old enough to buy a beer use a little more seasoning before suiting up for one of the worst teams in the league? Yea probably, but I guess if you’re the Jets whats the difference? You won 5 games with the veteran last year and that 5-year contract clock is already ticking so why redshirt the rookie?

Darnold looked like a lock to be the No. 1 overall pick after his redshirt freshman year at USC throwing for 31 TDs with only 9 INTs, 3086 yards, 67.2 completion % and a 161.1 passing efficiency rating. His numbers dropped pretty  much across the board though in his second and final year as a starter at USC. He threw less TDs, threw more INTs, had a lower completion % and a worse passing efficiency rating — so that would concern me.

What would also concern me is where the guy went to school. University of Southern California. Not exactly a beacon for future NFL QBs and its where the Jets have some experience.

Side note: I was at that game!

But in all seriousness, USC has produced only one real viable NFL starter in Carson Palmer. The rest of the USC signal callers turned into serviceable at best NFL QBs; Matt Leinart, Mark Sanchez, Matt Cassel, Matt Barkley, Cody Kessler, and John David Booty! Not a lot of Pro Bowls in there.

Who knows though? Picking a QB in the NFL is a total crapshoot. With my luck he’ll turn into the next great quarterback stud and will haunt me for all the fun I’ve had at the Jets expense over the past 18 years.

Nike Deserves Applause for Choosing Colin Kaepernick as New Face of “Just Do It” Campaign

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I see you, Nike. Pretty ballsy move here…and I am ABSOLUTELY on board.

On Monday, it was announced that Colin Kaepernick would become the new face of Nike’s “Just Do It” campaign, which is set to enter its 30th year. The decision was announced on Twitter via Kap’s agent, Mark Geragos:

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And HO-LEE SHIT did it start a firestorm.

Not only did the company’s stock drop a few percentage points as of Tuesday morning, but all the social media warriors out there have already made sure to show off just how much they’re “sticking it” to Nike by burning/destroying shoes and other apparel made by the company which THEY ALREADY OWN AND HAVE SPENT MONEY ON.

(If you want a good laugh, Uproxx posted a wonderful piece this morning which features many of those posts as well as the hilarious responses to them from the sane and witty Twitter crowd.)

Honestly, it’s the hypocrisy of it all that kills me. These same people who decry that kneeling for the anthem is the most disrespectful thing an American citizen could do are the same people who will gladly order a chicken sandwich from Chic-fil-A without even thinking twice – because after all, these people are about FREEDOM, UNITY, and EQUALITY for EVERYONE, under one nation…unless of course you’re a homosexual, right?

And after that they’ll go to Wal-Mart – one of the country’s truly most destructive and corrupt corporate entities – and purchase a knock-off patio set that they’ll use (maybe) twice all year just to try and keep up with Bob and Jane next door, who just put in an in-ground pool with their disgusting amount of disposable income.

Oh! And then they’ll need to make sure to stop by a Mobil gas station on the way home to fill up the tank in their precious luxury vehicle. (Do I really need to get into ExxonMobil?)

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My point is there is an inexhaustible list of other corporations out there which should be shamed much more so than Nike, but people are CHOOSING to view the entire movement that Kap started as something it’s not. As a result, it’s causing them to overlook some very real and very serious issues – both related to Kap’s cause and otherwise – due the irrational and completey misguided anger that’s currently consuming them.

I’m just going to say it, and I cannot be clear enough: KNEELING FOR THE ANTHEM HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE VETERANS OR DISRESPECTING THE NATION AS A WHOLE! (That is just simply how some are CHOOSING to view it.)

Let’s take a second to let that sink in…

OK. Everybody clear now? Great. Let’s move on.

The protest was meant to bring attention to an extremely important issue that is often overlooked – or outright ignored – by those who don’t experience the prejudice and suffering many in our nation face each and every day. I don’t think I need to go into a diatribe on race relations in the United States; if you’re that ignorant or you disagree with the fact that things truly aren’t equal for every citizen in this country, then I’m not even sure it’s worth wasting my breath on trying to convince you at this point.

But at least Nike’s trying. Nike’s trying to piss people off. Nike’s trying to create controversy. Nike’s trying to push the envelope.

That’s what the players are trying to do as well. Because, let’s be honest, what’s going to get your attention more: a guy on TV in a suit giving a charismatic speech about the Black Lives Matter movement, or some of your beloved sports stars kneeling before a symbol you have loved and respected (and rightfully so!) your entire life? Obviously, it’s the second one. You know it. I know it. THEY know it. That’s the point!

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Also, it’s not an entirely meaningless gesture either. The whole point is to demonstrate the fact that they believe a lot of what the American flag is supposed to embody is a farce in our current society. They didn’t choose this route just to be dicks.

Still, some feel as though it simply goes too far, and I will admit that a part of me initially felt the same way. Anyone who unabashedly hates the country or supports any animosity/violence toward law enforcement or our service members in any way should absolutely be shunned (and, if necessary, punished to the full extent of the law). I don’t think anyone, NFL players included, would argue against that.

(Side note: I know a lot of people want to bring up the time Kaepernick wore pig socks to training camp in August 2016 – aka the first time he brought up the issue of police brutality – and I can’t say I support him on that move at all. However, it does seem like he’s matured significantly since then, and he’s done some pretty proactive things outside of the protest that deserve a lot of credit. I truly believe his heart’s now in the right place.)

Nike, just like the various players throughout the league supporting Kap’s cause, is simply trying to start a conversation. (OK, sure, they’re absolutely trying to make more money in the long run, too; I’m not gonna B.S. you on that.) But still, the courage they displayed by making this move is something I respect the hell out of, and it’s refreshing to see a multi-million-dollar corporation choose to take a hit in the pocket at first just to show their support for a truly noteworthy cause.

And maybe if more people would listen to the actual message, we could make a difference for the better. But until that happens, I guess all we’re going to get is charred Jordans and swoop-less socks – and, above all, a divided nation that could so easily be saved with a simple little conversation.

So good on ya, Nike! You’ll come up flush for this in the long run, and hopefully we all will, too.

BREAKING: Tom Brady Announces New Episode of Tom vs Time for Tomorrow at Noon

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Breathe, just breathe. Tom Brady just announced on Facebook that he is dropping a new episode of Tom vs Time from the clouds tomorrow at noon. Why is he doing this? I feel like Ari Gold when Terrance came to visit him at home in the bar mitzvah episode.

But seriously, this show had a very definitive ending with the Patriots losing the Super Bowl and Tom pretty openly questioning his commitment to football.

It was a pretty controversial and was really just the beginning of a completely hectic offseason that featured infighting, rumors of both Brady and Gronk threatening to retire, Alex Guerrero got his groove back, with Gronk and Brady getting reworked contracts.

But there has been a cloud over this team for the better part of 7 months and now 4 days before the Patriots are set to kick off their 2018 season, Tom Brady busts his Facebook show out of the Disney Vault after saying time and time again he was done with Tom vs Time. Why?

On 98.5 this morning they were throwing out conspiracy theories saying that Brady may announce his retirement and that 2018 will be his last season. Or maybe he just wants to put his own spin on the narrative that got away from him this offseason after one of his favorite guys in Amendola left town, skipping OTAs, as well as his WR1 and TB12 client Julian Edelman getting popped for PEDs.

Who knows what the hell is going to be said on this episode tomorrow, but I suggest everybody take their lunch break at noon tomorrow with a pair of headphones and your iPhone.

In Case You Missed the Patriots Last PreSeason Game, Rookie QB Danny Etling RAN for an 86 Yard Touchdown

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I don’t know how you could have missed the illustrious fourth preseason game, but if you somehow did you missed Michael Vick Danny Etling, and recently inducted member of the Handsome Mens Club, rushing for an 86 yard touchdown.

Good luck trying to stash those wheels on the practice squad, Bill.

A New Game To The Site – Let’s Play: CONNECT. THAT. HEADLINE!

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So in this game, we are going to take a headline that smashes two stories into one like a freshman (or 29 year old blogger) with whiskey dick. Our first contestant, from Yahoo:

“Elon Musk revives claim that Thai cave rescue here is a “pedo” after denying he cried in interview“

Well now. Having fun yet? So there are really three stories here, as a special surprise for our first round. The stories are a.)Elon Musk, fuckhead extraordinaire, called the guy who rescued the kids from that cave in Thailand b.)He already had called said hero diver a pedo, but no one listened because of his extraordinary fuckheadedness, so he yelled it again from the rooftops c.)O and he got called out for crying in an interview so added that he in fact, had not cried.

We’ll pause so you can guess what transpired. Ready?

Soooo I breezed through the story because I am STEADFAST to our readers (Hi Mr. and Mrs. Z!) that I refuse to do research. But it would seem all of this went down on twitter and Yahoo has sort of just summed up a day of his 280 character word vomit. He actually brought the crying thing up first. I guess the New York Times said while being interviewed he began crying over not being able to see his kids enough. Naturally, this segued into, “speaking of kids, remember that fucking creepy hero diver guy?!”

First of all my guy, some kids lost in a cave in a 3rd world country is old news the day after their rescued. I don’t think they were even on Oprah and I’m pretty sure she even interviewed the raft Elian floated over on. 2nd of all to categorically deny missing your kids is just unecessary. I get you need to hold up your robot reputation, but as the real Jeffrey Lebowski once said, strong men do cry.