TNF Recap: If you had D.K. Metcalf going in PPR fantasy, he gave you a respectable, 3-46-1, and I’m happy for you. Thankfully, those 46 yards fell well under his prop total of 79.5 receiving yards. As Hannah Montana would say, “you get the best of both worlds.”
The pick: Justin Herbert O277.5 passing yards vs NYJ(-118)
Fact #1: Herbert got a haircut this week, which means the man means business this week. I only get haircuts ahead of big events.
Fact #2: The Jets have allowed an average of 303.5 passing yards over the past 4 games, which includes performances from Josh Allen (307), Patrick Mahomes (416) and Cam Newton (274).
Fact #3: Herbert has totaled 278 or more passing yards in three of his last four outings (347 vs JAX, 278 at DEN, 326 vs LVR and 187 at MIA).
Julio Jones O80.5 receiving yards vs NO (-125)
Fact #1: Saints top CB Marshon Lattimore (abdominal) is out today. In 4 career games vs ATL, he has allowed 14 out of 24 targets passes in his direction to be completed (58.3%), 0 TD.
Fact # 2: Calvin Ridley (foot) returns to action, which should prevent the Saints defense from trying to zone in more on Julio.
Fact #3: Julio has eclipsed 81 or more receiving yards in three of his last four outings (137 at MIN, 97 vs DET, 137 at CAR and 54 vs DEN).
Chiefs Team Total O3.5 Touchdowns vs LVR (-121)
Fact #1: KC is averaging 34.3 points per game during their 4-game win streak.
“But James, why isn’t their win streak at 5 games?”
Because they lost 40-32 at home to the Raiders in Week 5 — their only blemish on the season. The Raiders were reportedly so impressed (and shocked) by their victory that they took a victory lap around Arrowhead, proving that there is no such thing as “act like you’ve been there before.”
Fact #2: MVP front-runner Patrick Mahomes has 10 total TD (9 pass) over the last eight quarters.
Fact #3: In games that don’t feature gross weather conditions aka the Week 8 game vs Cleveland (16-6 final), the Raiders defense is allowing an average of 31 points on the road.
Damien Harris O63.5 rushing yards vs HOU (-167)
Full disclosure: I hate talking about any props that are juiced more than -130, but this feels like a slam dunk. Also, DraftKings didn’t have Mike Davis rushing props available.
Fact #1:Sony Michel is inactive.
Fact #2:The Texans have allowed 683 rushing yards over the last five weeks — the most in the NFL over that span — and they’ve only d four games over that span.
Fact #3: Harris’s rushing totals the last 3 games: 102 at BUF, 71 at NYJ and 121 vs BAL
The #Falcons are planning to allow starters TE Austin Hooper and De’Vondre Campbell to test free agency, GM Thomas Dimitroff said today. The likelihood is that both players receive large deals in free agency, but Atlanta hasn’t ruled out keeping them for the right price.
The Patriots traditionally don’t make a big splash in free agency, but it’s a myth to say they never do. They gave Antonio Brown a 1 year $15 million deal last year, the $65 million deal they gave to Stephon Gilmore in 2017, the Revis deal in 2014, Danny Amendola in 2013, and of course the disaster that was the Adalius Thomas contract in 2007. So while I don’t expect them to make a huge move, especially because of the precarious cap space situation with Tom Brady’s contract, but don’t put it past them.
These are uncharted waters for the Patriots, who haven’t had to think about the tight end position since they drafted Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez in 2010. Obviously Hernandez had his own demons, but Gronkowski was a staple for the team for a decade. The biggest question mark was always “how long will Gronk be out for?” rather than “who is going to be our tight end?” Last year the team seemingly thought they could coax one more year out of the big fella as they waited on baited breath until Gronk finally announced his retirement (late) and the Pats missed out on legitimate replacements like Jared Cook.
So this is really the first year the Patriots are fully IN on the tight end market and I can’t think of a better guy to take over than Austin Hooper. Despite my all-time bad break in missing the fantasy football playoffs last season I did have the wherewithal to roster Austin Hooper yet again. I have watched him closely over the past few years. To put it simply, Hooper has been a stud and only has continued to get better as the team around him continued to deteriorate.
75 receptions 787 yards 6 TDs
71 receptions 660 yards 4 TDs
49 receptions 526 yards 3TDs
19 receptions 271 yards 3 TDs
Hooper finished 6th among tight ends in fantasy points last year, while ranking 5th in receptions, 6th in yards, and 4th in TDs. Travis Kelce is a much flashier player, but Hooper is a guy I would take tomorrow. He did miss three games last year with a sprained MCL, but it wasn’t an injury that seemed to hamper him when he returned as he had 7 catches in each of the last two games.
With all the top tight ends in the league earning $9-$10 million per year, expect that to be the starting point for Hooper. However that could jump a bit if the Chargers do franchise Hunter Henry, leaving Hooper as the de facto No. 1 guy on the open market. Yahoo Sports noted that “Salary-cap analyst Joel Corry predicts free agent TE Austin Hooper will command at least a four-year, $44 million contract.” So it may be a stretch for the Pats financially, but they reportedly considered trading for him last year, and it is a crystal clear area of need.
Not to mention Hooper Drives the Boat t-shirts would sell themselves in Massachusetts so I would really appreciate that as well.
Yahoo – The Falcons took a 23-22 lead with a frantic finish that saw a pair of throws into the end zone reviewed for touchdowns…Jones’ TD left two seconds remaining for the 49ers to attempt an unlikely comeback. The ensuing kickoff resulted in typical desperate shenanigans that saw multiple backward laterals on the return.
It did not end with a 49ers score. It did end with a Falcons touchdown when Atlanta special teamer Olamide Zaccheaus picked up a lateral that rolled into end zone.
That late score meant nothing in terms of the outcome of the game. But it meant everything for bettors who took the 49 1/2-point under set by MGM. The score pushed the total to 51 points and an unexpected win for over bettors.
If I had so much as my lunch money betting the under on this game I would have jumped off my roof. I know we are fond of hyperbole and recency bias in this day and age, but that was probably the most absurd, meaningless, and downright cruel bad beat I’ve ever seen. As an objective fan without any skin in the game (I don’t want to talk about my fantasy team) it was an awesome final few minutes to watch. Austin Hooper’ would be go ahead TD was erased after the refs overturned it, but with 2 seconds on the clock and no timeouts left Matt Ryan hit Julio Jones ON the goal line for the score.
This literally could not have been closer, if Jones gets tackled an inch or two further back then the clock runs out and the Niners hang on.
Normally I’d flip the channel with just 2 seconds to go, but after the Miami Miracle walkoff kick return last season I tend to stick around to witness some chaos. This game did not disappoint.
If you had Redskins +6.5 and Falcons/49ers UNDER 49.5 today, it might be time to take a break.
If you had money on this game I think its completely understandable to call out of work for a couple of days until you recover.
I lost because the 49ers tried to lateral their way to a touchdown and instead gave up a fumble six, causing me to lose a point and tie. I lost via tiebreaker (bench points). He also had Julio who scored the touchdown, had they just given it to Hooper i would have won
Michael Vick in Madden 2004 is the most dominant character in video game history. He was more dominant than Bo Jackson in TECMO, more dominant than Mike Tyson in Punch-Out, I would even argue he was more dominant than the Water Temple. Oddjob from 007? Kick rocks.
Just look at the dude’s stats from that year’s Madden:
Overall – 95
Speed – 95
Agility – 95
Acceleration – 94
Awareness – 80
Throw Power – 97
Throw Accuracy – 84
Absolutely outrageous, good luck stopping that. I know my brother and I smashed many a PS2 clickers trying to contain No. 7. So for Mike Vick to have that Madden cover from FOURTEEN years ago as his Instagram profile pic to this day is the ultimate flex. Just has to remind people that he was absolutely unstoppable and the GOAT video game character. If only he could have sat down and actually studied film and not murdered dogs like a complete sociopath scumbag then he could have been the greatest of all time in real life too.
ESPN – After peeling back prices on some of their most popular items last year to unprecedented levels, the Atlanta Falcons are ready to shock the sports world again with a $5 craft beer.
The Falcons will sell the $5 craft beers at their regular-season games — starting Sept. 16 against the Panthers — and any home playoff games. The craft beer price, along with all other concession prices, will remain the same next February when Atlanta hosts Super Bowl LIII at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, despite the traditionally elevated concession prices at Super Bowls.
God bless Arthur Blank. We may have dropped years worth of 28-3 jokes on you and your franchise, but goddamn if the man doesn’t know how to please a broke cheap football fan.
Last year the Falcons made waves for slashing all their concessions prices to absurdly cheap levels, comparatively speaking. While having much lower prices than their peers, the Falcons are saying they did more business so it seems to be worth their while. Now they’re doubling down on that and will be selling craft beers for $5 a pop. That is insane.
When I go to games at Fenway, I go to the last beer vendor by the bleachers, which the same woman has worked at every game I’ve been to in the last decade, just so I can get the sweet sweet deal of a tallboy can for $11.50 instead of $10.50 for a 12 ounce Bud Light.
True story: I’m a huge craft beer guy. I never thought I’d turn into the beer snob, but here we are. My dad never drank anything, literally anything, other than Bud Light cans. So I was always a Bud Light guy, when I could spring for it, or some cheaper light beer like Busch when I wanted to get blind drunk for $22 bucks.
With the explosion of craft beer and breweries being the only bar I can actually bring my dog to without getting the cops called on me, I gradually started drinking more and more obscure shit.
Started with IPAs, dipped into Sours, discovered that Double and Triple IPAs are a thing and before we know it I’m three sheets to the wind off a handful of beers.
Downside to all of these mega alcoholic brews though is the fact that they are expensive as shit. College me would slap 29-year-old me in the fucking face if he witnessed what I did at the packy yesterday. Saw the brand new Nightshift Double IPA (I’m on the email list NBD) at the packy and audibly gasped when I read the price tag for a 4-pack of tallboys.
$18 dollars. Eighteen Dollars for FOUR beers.
You’re goddamn right I bought those beers.
And now we sit here going through bank statements and credit card receipts wondering where all my money goes saying things like “well if I cancel Netflix and my car insurance I should be able to cover rent this month.”
USA Today – Mercedes-Benz Stadium’s crown jewel when it opened last year was the futuristic retractable roof that looked super-cool when it opened and closed. Except the roof had a ton of problems – there was a leak during the college football championship game and the thing had problems opening and closing.
The Falcons finally figured out how to work the sunroof on their own stadium. Just shy of a year since it opened too!
All these hype videos are cool, but fail to mention the fact that the roof itself takes EIGHT MINUTES to open. This is 2018, I don’t have eight minutes.
Apparently the guys building the stadium last year realized they weren’t going to have time to finish it so they just mailed it in.
“The issue with the roof… is ensuring that the weight distribution along each section of the rail is precise to keep the panel level and keep it from wearing down the rails.
“We got to a point, quite frankly, where we said, you know what, let’s just sit that aside for a little and get everything else in 100 percent tip top shape, and then let’s just come back and work on the fine tuning of the roof afterwards.”
Almost have to respect the move. But hey its all good now, the Falcons have a nifty roof! The envy of the Brewers, the Blue Jays, the Astros, the Cowboys and retractable dome teams everywhere. Definitely worth $700 million in taxpayer money.
Its been too long, ESPN. I haven’t read a good Patriots hit piece in a few months. ESPN the Magazine just dropped this article today on Tom Brady and the TB12 Method. It used to be Greg Easterbrook randomly attacking the Patriots as part of his weekly 8,000 word diatribes. Then it was Mark Brunell crying on SportsCenter about DeflateGate. Well, now we’ve moved on to Tom Brady and the TB12 Method. Listen, I haven’t bought the book so take this with a grain of salt. I don’t know all the ins and outs of Brady’s program, but I do know a hit piece when I see one. So lets break it down.
“He tried his best, as he always does, but he was alone against a younger, faster opponent, and when he dove, he missed by a foot rather than by an inch and appeared simply to fall down, in pieces. Even those who root against him might then have pitied him, because it was one of those moments when the essence of sport is revealed to be cruelly and coldly biological: Tom Brady, in the course of throwing a pick-six to Robert Alford of the Falcons in the second quarter of Super Bowl LI, had grown old.”
Wait did the Patriots lose that game? Did Brady play terribly? Oh no, it was the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history in which Tom Brady won his fourth Super Bowl MVP and finished the game 43-62 with 466 yards for 2 TDs and 1 INT. Decent.
“He doesn’t just want to play until he’s 45; he has to play until he’s 45, or else he’s not Tom Brady, architect of the impossible.”
I’d say he’s doing alright thus far. While it would be a surprise for him to retire now after years of saying how he wants to play well into his 40’s, I don’t think anyone would necessarily fault him. I might weep like a small child, but certainly no one with a rational brain would put a negative spin on him retiring “early” if he did so.
“When [Tony] Robbins, smiling toothily in his headset, leads the crowd in rhythmic clapping, Brady gamely claps along. He is wearing his own headset, smiling his own toothy smile, and he appears for all the world to be an aging athlete doing what aging athletes have always done — trying to find a way off the field by turning himself into a salesman.”
Jesus christ, I mean I didn’t buy the TB12 book either, but this ESPN writer is out for blood. Maybe Brady is exaggerating? Or maybe the guy who is playing at the highest level a QB his age has ever played at is on to something? I don’t know.
“He answers questions about concussions by saying that his body is none of your business even as he begins to build a business around his body.”
First real valid point of this article. But also, if you’re Brady why would you want to open yourself up to constant questioning about your personal (alleged) concussion history when you’re still lining up every Sunday. Maybe after he retires, but doing so now would just, all together now, create a distraction.
“The TB12 Method offers a portrait of a ferociously limited human being, albeit the world’s “most hydrated” one.”
Hey fuck you buddy, being hydrated is half the battle. Plus Tom Brady is the absolute antithesis of the all-time great QBs. He wasn’t handed a starting job on a silver platter or gifted golden NFL legacy genes like Peyton Manning. He was a backup in high school on a winless team and then was behind about half a dozen other guys on the QB depth chart in college. Sure, he has world’s more athletic potential than any of us, but I don’t fault the guy for harping on the limitations he overcame to get here. Because its exactly what he did. I mean have you ever SEEN his NFL Combine pic?
“In fact, two years ago, I took a hit on my knee during a practice, requiring an MRI. The doctors who read the MRI joked afterward that my knee looked so healthy, they seriously doubted I played professional football.”
Alright thats a bit of a hokey stretch from Tom, but again the guy has already torn his ACL horribly. Legitimately required multiple surgeries to fix it after nearly ending his career so is it out of the realm of possibility that Brady’s “pliability” work has helped avoid further injuries like this? Watch him play and he really does “know how to fall.” Thats a legitimate skill. Its why only children and old people break their arms when they fall down.
“However, if Alford had caught the ball Brady threw to him instead of Edelman, or if the ball had followed its natural course and fallen to the turf instead of being held up by a thicket of arms and legs — or if Pete Carroll had just handed the ball to Marshawn Lynch in Super Bowl XLIX — we might be having an entirely different conversation about Tom Brady. He wouldn’t be an immortal, and instead of talking about the efficacy of the TB12 Method in prolonging prime performance, we’d be shaking our heads about another NFL great reduced to chasing his own ghost. Brady didn’t only get good against Seattle and Atlanta, he also got lucky.”
If David Tyree the insurance salesman doesn’t make the luckiest catch in NFL history or if Mario Manningham doesn’t make that absurd sideline catch then Tom Brady could have SEVEN Super Bowl rings right now. Or Vinatieri could miss all of those clutch field goals and Brady could have none.
“The quarterback was still trying to adjust his game after five years of postseason struggle. Smart defensive coaches had started challenging him, clogging the middle of the field in order to force him to throw outside. In 2013, Brady’s yards per attempt had fallen to 6.92, his lowest since 2006, and he completed only 17 of 68 throws beyond 20 yards.”
In case anyone forgets, 2013 wasn’t exactly the kindest year as far as Tom Brady’s offensive weapons were concerned. While this was Edelman’s breakout season with 105 catches, Rob Gronkowski got hurt and played in only 7 games, Wes Welker left for the Broncos, Danny Woodhead went to the Chargers, oh and Aaron Hernandez got arrested for murder. The Pats signed Danny Amendola, who got hurt and played in parts of only 12 games. The Pats also brought in hugely disappointing rookies in Aaron Dobson, Josh Boyce, and Kenbrell Thompkins. Just a little perspective. Moving on…
“The Chiefs drubbed the Patriots on Monday night early in the 2014 season, and Brady played so poorly — so creakily — that talk turned to whether he was, at long last, finished.
Yes the Pats had just drafted Jimmy G before the 2014 season, and yes people like Trent Dilfer danced on the Patriots’ graves.
But the team was not in this freefall that this article seems to suggest. Do we already forget what Belichick’s response was to people asking if Brady would be supplanted as the starter?
“A few days later, Belichick asked running backs coach Ivan Fears to speak to the team. Fears spoke about the importance of attitude, then turned to Brady and, with the entire team looking on, said, “Your body language reeks of fear.”
Thats the beauty of the Patriots as Tom Brady himself has said many times over the years, no one in that locker room is above criticism.
“On the night of Oct. 30, that question was answered — for now, at least — when he traded Garoppolo to the San Francisco 49ers for a second-round pick. The trade came out of nowhere, surprising people close to Belichick, Brady and Garoppolo. But while it’s easy to see the move as a demonstration that Brady is and always will be the one exception to the Belichick Method, it instead serves as confirmation that the Method will always win. Did Belichick trade his backup out of loyalty to a 40-year-old quarterback, or because cutting bait at exactly the right time is what he always does and always will do?”
Literally NO ONE believes that Belichick traded Jimmy Garoppolo because he’s pals with Tom Brady. He did it because he saw an opportunity to get a draft pick that he valued more than he valued Jimmy G at this current time on his current contract. Thats it.
“[Brady] said, ‘I’m at the point where I want to be the best in every possible way. I came across the exercises in Popular Science, and I can already see the difference in my brain function. This kind of brain training is like physical conditioning. It can help anyone.’ “That’s just not how we thought of brain training before,” Mahncke says.”
Taking advantage of underutilized tools in unconventional ways. Very Moneyball of you, Tom.
“He has little sympathy for anyone whose experience might contradict the overarching TB12 narrative. “Players say the biggest reason [for early retirement] is their fear of the long-term effects of playing while injured. I don’t have that fear. They have no idea they can have a body or a career free of the pain that athletes of the past have endured.“
Okay, yes, if I was a fellow NFL player dealing with injuries this line would drive me up a wall.
“What would count as a failure for Tom Brady? Playing until he’s 41 instead of playing until he’s 45? Never winning another Super Bowl? Getting released at age 43 from the Patriots and spending the last days of his career hobbling around for the Browns, still angry that they took Spergon Wynn in the sixth round of the 2000 draft instead of him? Or getting all he wants — playing until he’s 45 and winning two more Super Bowls — only to discover 15 years later that he has recurring headaches and his memory is hazy and he can’t follow the route to the nearest TB12 training center?”
Pretty morbid from ya boy over at ESPN especially when all Brady is trying to do is mitigate the chances of injuries like that. Not glorifying CTE inducing hits like *your* employer ESPN used to do back in the day with the JACKED UP segment.
Then these guys completely forgo subtlety and all but blame the TB12 method for not helping prevent Julian Edelman’s torn ACL, or Dont’a Hightower’s torn pectoral muscle, or Amendola’s concussion. Listen, I’m not a disciple, but this book is not being sold to people as a way to never get injured again. Brady has said himself that its about preventative measures and recovery more than anything else.
I don’t know, if you want to read the article its pretty in depth, but I got a very haterade vibe to the whole thing; not just towards the TB12 Method, but towards Tom Brady himself. Color me shocked.
The fog came into Gillette fast last night and after a while you really couldn’t see a damn thing on TV, which must have sucked for the poor sap who dished out $200 bucks to sit in the 300s and couldn’t see shit.
As soon as NBC switched to that Sky Cam angle though I got a sudden rush of dopamine and I had no idea why. This new camera angle they finally switched to after an hour of trying to watch the game through the clouds just seemed right. And then it dawned on me. This is Madden. This is the same angle I’ve been playing football with for 15 years. This is the view I had when I first learned what Spider-2-Y-Banana was, or just how many clickers I could get my roommate to smash by running the perfectly timed HB Screen. Spread em out and go No Huddle for an entire game. This just feels right. NBC, do yourself a favor and get this angle worked into every game as much as you can. Subliminal advertising at its finest because right now I am jones-ing for some Madden.
Another week, another one of the worst beats I’ve ever seen in a football game with the ending of that Kansas City game. Just ruthless. As always, all of our betting lines are courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook so blame them if the numbers change. Its that time once again to start playing fast and loose with our paychecks. Its Week 5 in the NFL, LETS GO
New England Patriots (-5.5, 55.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers I picked the Pats to cover and cover they did.
Sunday, Oct. 8 1 p.m. ET
New York Jets at Cleveland Browns (-1.5, 39)
There’s no way you’re going to actually put money on the Browns as a favorite are you? I sure as shit am not going to. I’ll take the Jets here.
Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions (-3, 44)
Coming off their walkoff win over the Patriots, the Panthers have some momentum heading into Detroit. But the Lions are looking legit this year sitting at 3-1 in first place in the NFC North. It seems the Panthers are slowly figuring out the best way to use Christian McCaffrey with Jonathan Stewart together though so I’m taking the Panthers to cover here.
San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5, 43.5)
Tennessee Titans (NL) at Miami Dolphins
No Line for this game, so nothing to see here.
Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 38)
Call me crazy, I’m taking the Bills here. I like Tyrod Taylor to have a big game against the struggling Bengals.
Los Angeles Chargers at New York Giants (-3.5, 44.5)
A battle of two 0-4 teams. Woof. I’ve been picking the Chargers all year and they keep disappointing so its hard to rely on them here. Giants are in the same boat, but with a fully healthy Odell Beckham I think they finally get on the board here. I’ll take the G-Men to cover.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-8.5, 44)
Steelers are pretty big favorites at (-8.5) so thats asking a lot, but it is the Jaguars. I can definitely see Pittsburgh winning by 10. Fournette’s been solid in his first year rushing for 285 yards and 3 TDs, but Big Ben is rolling with Antonio Brown whos got 30 catches for 388 yards and a score. So I’m taking the Steelers to cover the big spread.
Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5, 45)
Eagles look like they’ve found their QB of the future with Carson Wentz and while I’m still bummed about Short Guy Hall of Famer Darren Sproles going down, Philly is still rolling along. Not a huge fan of old man Carson Palmer, especially with the non-existant run gam post David Johnson, so I’m taking the Eagles to cover.
4 p.m. ET Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5, 47) You gotta be shitting me? I know the Rams are off to a 3-1 start, but I refuse to take them as favorites over the Seahawks on a (-2.5) spread. Put some respeck on Seattle’s name. I’m taking Dangeruss and the Seahawks here.
Baltimore Ravens (NL) at Oakland Raiders
Seems to be a lot of No Lines this season, soo nothing to bet on here.
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-2, 52.5) Its hard to bet against the Packers, who are 3-1 on the season going against the 2-2 Cowboys. The Pack just continue to plug and play guys like Aaron Jones and not miss a beat, but I like Dallas here. Feed Zeke all night long and win by a FG, I’ll take the Boys.
Kansas City Chiefs (NL) at Houston Texans
Another game with No Line. Moving on.
Monday, Oct. 9 8:30 p.m. ET
Minnesota Vikings (NL) at Chicago Bears
No reason to watch MNF if theres No Line. Carry on.
Week 3 was a rollercoaster with a lot of upsets that I did not see coming (I’m looking at you Denver), but Week 4 is a new day. As always, all of our betting lines are courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook so blame them if the numbers change. Its that time once again to start playing fast and loose with our paychecks. Its Week 4 in the NFL, LETS GO.
Overall Record (14-16)
Last week (6-9)
Thursday, Sept. 28 Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-7, 45.5)
The Bears just keep making me look bad, but I refuse to put my hard earned dollars on Mike Glennon. And I need to see back to back solid games out of Jordan Howard before I trust him. Usually the tired rhetoric about Thursday Night Football is its sloppy, the passing is out of sync and teams lean on their running game. Welp, the Rams and Niners blew that one up last week. So I’m taking the Packers to cover here.
Sunday, Oct. 1 9:30 a.m. ET (at London) New Orleans Saints (-3, 49.5) vs. Miami Dolphins
I gotta go Saints here. I know they’ve been up and down, but I don’t know if Smokin Jay Cutler and the Dolphins have enough offensive firepower to keep up with the saints. Saints will cover.
1 p.m. ET Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots (-9, 48.5)
Another big spread for the Pats at (-9) which is a tricky one because the Panthers have been pretty shaky so far this year, but similar to last week against Deshaun Watson, the Pats have historically struggled against mobile QBs. I think its gonna be a game the Pats pull away, but Panthers make it respectable. I got Patriots by 10 to cover.
Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5, 46)
Rams looked great last week putting up 41 points buttt that was on San Francisco. Cowboys gotta win by more than a TD here, whereas the Rams haven’t lost by more than 7 yet this season and have put up 40+ points twice already. But again the competition has been pretty mediocre (Indy, Washington, San Fran) so I’m picking the Cowboys to keep rolling and cover.
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (no line)
Does Westgate have something against the Vikings? There’s no line for them for the second week in a row.
Tennessee Titans (-1.5, 44) at Houston Texans
Texans could go one of two ways in this game. Defeated and beat down after dropping a game they probably should have won to the Patriots last week or they’ll come firing out of the gates for sticking with the best team in football for 58 minutes last week. I think Deshaun Watson found his groove last week so I’m taking the Texans to cover here.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5, 39.5) at New York Jets
Bet on this game at your own risk. Jags cruised to victory last week, but they’re more of a running team these days and the Jets have a solid D-line if nothing else. Jets surprised me last week with a W over the Dolphins, but I think Fournette and the gang are too much for the Jets here. Jags cover.
Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 40) at Cleveland Browns
Another game I cringe to even put money on, but hey thats what leaders do, they take the ball and they bring their team down the field. Bengals shit the bed last week, but Cleveland cannot be trusted. Bengals cover.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 43.5) at Baltimore Ravens
Ravens had an absolutely embarrassing game last week so they should bounce back. Problem is though, so did the Steelers. After losing in OT to the goddamn Bears, I expect Big Ben and co. to smash the Ravens. Steelers cover.
Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons (-8, 48.5)
Bills are sneaky tied for 1st place in the AFC East and look a lot better than most people thought they would before the season. I think the Bills keep it within a score and cover.
4 p.m. ET New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 44)
This year’s Hard Knocks darlings have yet to beat anyone great yet as their first game got postponed, then they beat the Bears, and then got smoked by the Vikings last week. ODB looks healthy once again, but the Giants are 0-3 and could be reeling so I’m going with the Bucs to cover.
Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Chargers (-1, 47)
Despite being 0-3, the Chargers have had some bad breaks and could easily be 2-1 so I think they’re due, plus it likely will take the Eagles a little while to figure out how to best replace Darren Sproles with Smallwood and others. Chargers are due, I’m picking them to cover.
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-7, 44.5)
The Niners got blown out in their opener, but then nearly beat Seattle in Week 2, which looking back now seems to have more to do with the Seahawks offensive line than anything. Then they kept it close before losing to the Rams last week. Arizona looks to rebound after an L in Dallas in which Larry Fitzgerald looked 10 years younger. Their running game is still a disaster without David Johnson, but wth Fitz and Jaron Brown stepping up in the receiving core I’m picking the Cardinals to cover.
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-2.5, 46.5)
This is a heavyweight matchup of AFC playoff teams and the Broncos are favored by a FG. Both teams had disappointing losses last week so everyone’s looking to get back on track. Oakland has been leaning on Marshawn Lynch here early and Denver is one of the worst teams to try and run on so I’m going with the Broncos to cover here.
8:30 p.m. ET Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks (-13, 41.5)
God the Colts suck, but a two TD spread is huge for a team thats been struggling offensively. As much as I want to pick the Colts, Russell Wilson looked great last week and if the Seahawks can get him out of the pocket he’ll shred the Colts D. So while I usually hate picking the favorite in huge spreads like this, Dangeruss is looking good, and the Seahawks are at home where they are loud as shit. I’ll take Seattle to cover.
Monday, Oct. 2 Washington Redskins at Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 49.5)
I’m going to continue to roll with the Chiefs who have looked awesome so far this year. Kareem Hunt is scary good and the R-words have yet to really find a groove as guys like Terrell Pryor continue to underwhelm. I got the Chiefs covering here.
“In fact, two years ago, I took a hit on my knee during a practice, requiring an MRI. The doctors who read the MRI joked afterward that my knee looked so healthy, they seriously doubted I played professional football.”
The 300s 