Of all the bad draft picks Belichick has made over the years, it boggles my mind how he doesn’t get more heat for these two. Two THIRD round draft picks used on a couple of guys that combined for all of five receptions. Total. Between the two of them. That is a stunningly bad evaluation of talent or allocation of assets, whichever criticism you prefer.
That’s before you even get to the assets the Patriots sent out the door to trade UP to get these two players. The Patriots swapped third round and fifth round picks with the Raiders and sent a fourth rounder to Vegas to trade up to select Asiasi. They then traded two fourth round picks and a six round pick, to the JETS no less, in order to trade up to No. 101 to select Keene.
I mean if you’re a glass half full guy, which I admittedly am not, you can give Belichick credit for trying to aggressively address an area of need. After finishing the 2019 season ranked last in the NFL in TE receptions he immediately went out and targeted two tight ends early in the draft. BUT for whatever reason neither guy cut it in New England and the Pats basically flushed six draft picks for five catches. Insanity.
The reason these gigantic swing and misses should have Belichick taking more heat is because they lead to compounded issues. Clearly he saw these guys weren’t going to cut it pretty early on because less than a year later he opened up Robert Kraft’s checkbook and signed tight ends Jonnu Smith to a $50 million deal and Hunter Henry to a $37.5 million deal. You can argue all you want about the reality of cap space, but when you dump five draft picks on two players that provide zero value and then have to go replace them with $90 million in free agent signings it puts your roster management behind the 8-ball. The simple reality is it’s nearly impossible to build a consistent winner in the NFL if you are missing on your top draft picks like this.
This really has just been a disaster of a season. The Patriots just got dunked on by the Buffalo Bills after going 29-3 against them between 2001-2019 with Tom Brady under center. It was a blowout, it was a changing of the guard, but to say it was embarrassing would imply that the end result was surprising. It was not. In the infamous words of Trent Dilfer, the Patriots aren’t good anymore. It’s the first time the Patriots have been swept in a season by a divisional opponent in 20 years, they are dead last in the NFL in passing TDs with 8 (one of which came from WR Jakobi Meyers), and the team is uncharacteristically undisciplined, which was only exacerbated by that head scratching challenge flag Belichick threw on what was clearly a catch directlyin front of him and his son.
Someone clearly told Bill to throw the red flag though so Ernie must be going blind up in that fucking lighthouse.
There is a lot of grave dancing, which is to be expected after the run the Patriots just went on over the last 20 years. But for people to already be comparing the Patriots to the Jets is hyperbole of the highest order. Lets just let this marinate for a little more than 15 weeks before locking the Pats in the NFL basement with the likes of the Jets. I fully expect Bill is going to Execute Order 66 this offseason and just start taking people out left and right because you can tell this season has stung, which can only be worsened seeing Tom Brady’s march to the playoffs down in Tampa. The Pats will have some of, if not the most, cap room in the league this offseason and a Top 15 draft pick so there are some assets there to work with. Whether that means trading up to snag a top tier QB, trading down and rebuilding with even more picks, or hoping another QB shakes loose in free agency, there are plenty of routes back to respectability. I will settle for respectability and then we can discuss returning to championship contender status at a later date.
The best the Patriots can hope for right now is a 2012 Seahawks scenario where they overpay for a backup QB free agent and then hit on a QB with a pick later in the draft. Best case scenario is the Pats sign Marcus Mariota, then draft a QB in the 3rd Round, and Mariota never takes a snap for the team. Similar to how the Seahawks and Pete Carroll gave career backup Matt Flynn a monster 3-year deal before realizing a few weeks later that they had hit the jackpot with Russell Wilson. But stumbling onto another Hall of Fame QB with a late round draft pick isn’t exactlyy probable so I can’t say I am expecting that.
What about former Washington QB Dwayne Haskins? The fastest a 1st Round QB has been outright cut by a team in the last 20 years. Nope. Moving on.
The Patriots unfortunately do not have a lot of elite talent and just about all of their best players are on the wrong side of 30. All of their best offensive players under 30 are linemen and runningbacks, which is why the running game is the only thing thats looked impressive at times. Tight ends we’ll get to in a minute, but the receiving corps is nothing I would bet money on. N’Keal Harry is looking like a gigantic bust and Damiere Byrd and Jakobi Meyers are nice 3rd or 4th receivers, but they are not true No. 1 guys. Things aren’t much better on the defensive side of the ball with their best players under 30 including guys like JC Jackson (who got robbed of a Pro Bowl this year), Chase Winovich, Deatrich Wise, and the book is still out but early signs have looked good on Josh Uche and Kyle Dugger. You can debate anyone I may have left out, but there’s not a lot of young elite talent on the roster except for Jackson (who sneaky got torched last night).
Cam Newton is a great dude, a seemingly beloved teammate, and he has been a model Patriot, but unfortunately he just looks cooked. I don’t know if it’s his shoulder or what, but he just cannot deliver the ball. It’s not all his fault though as the weapons around him have been more like Dollar Store Super Soakers. Even when he does deliver a good pass, he has bum receivers dropping balls like Byrd letting a would be TD bounce off his face mask.
Or rookie (3rd Round pick) TE Devin Asiasi dropping a key first down and adding to his grand total of Zero receptions on the season. Fellow 3rd Round TE Dalton Keene has a measly Two receptions on the year too so Tight End, a historically important position for young/new/mobile QBs, has been BARREN in New England.
Newton can still takeoff for an electric TD run though, which he did Monday night for his 12th of the year. However even that came after what realistically should have been another sack as Newton’s pocket presence and awareness has seemed non-existent this season. But even with the 2nd Most Rushing TDs by a QB in a season (trailing only himself in 2011 with 14), passing for just 5 touchdowns over 14 games simply isn’t going to cut it. I wish it had worked out better, I was really excited to see Cam as a Patriot, but it just hasn’t materialized. It’s not for a lack of effort or attitude, which has been admirable, but even the ever positive Newton sounded dejected after last night’s effort (5/10 for 34 yards, 47.6 QBR).
On Monday he looked exhausted and sounded frustrated. He has been away from his children for months, and not even an admirable work ethic and a team-first attitude has produced much.
“It’s extremely frustrating knowing what you’re capable of but it’s just not showing when it counts the most,” Newton said. “… I’ve sacrificed so much this year and it hurts when you have the outing that you had tonight …
“I’m more or less venting,” he acknowledged.
Jarrett Stidham: Alright down 20+ points, time for me to get in there and start slinging it!
To be fair, Jarrett Stidham, who it looked like might not even see the field, was also terrible, completing 4 of 11 passes for 44 yards with a QBR of 3.7. Again, this team is devoid of elite talent at Wide Receiver (Julian Edelman is still out with a knee injury) and Tight End so it’s hard to evaluate anybody under center, but lets just say Stidham does not appear to be like a young Aaron Rodgers with his path to playing time merely blocked by a former MVP veteran QB.
To make matters even worse, the commentators were borderline depressing too. They will usually try to carry a game broadcast during a blowout, but they were talking about Newton and the Patriots like a “too old to be in the ring” heavyweight boxer that they were legitimately concerned for. And this was with 10 minutes left to go in the 4th quarter. Quite a lot of time to fill as the broadcasters pondered the precarious future of the Patriots.
So we’ll see what the Patriots do and whether they attack the offseason like they did after 2006 when they spent big in free agency and made splashy trades for studs like Randy Moss and Wes Welker, but even then that team had elite building blocks already in place.
All we know is this: Bill has the cap space, an unusually high draft pick, and all the motivation in the world to turn this thing around. Now let’s just hope this is a rebuild and not a tear down.
I’m not going to put the blame all on Cam Newton here despite the way that game ended. This team is clearly just not that good and Newton’s top receiver yesterday was a former quarterback, and no I’m not talking about Julian Edelman. The offensive play calling was suspect at best. With all that being said, Newton hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass since Week 3. And I’m no NFL scout but it did look like Newton was laboring on a lot of his throws yesterday as he was still skipping passes on easy 5-10 yard routes. The offensive game plan yesterday was almost as if they were protecting Newton from himself. Newton was 15/25 with no touchdowns and no interceptions and there was almost nothing thrown deep. I looked at the drive charts for the Pats to see if my memory served me right and Newton had one completion of 28 yards, but that was thanks to a huge YAC play by James White. There was one medium range 22 yard completion to Damiere Byrd, but other than that there was nothing completed longer than 16 yards. So unsurprisingly the Bills were crowding the hell out of the box.
Meanwhile the Pats ran the ball 34 times, including 9 by Newton. So there was a lot of handing it off and more designed QB runs than we’ve seen in a while. I guess thats to be expected playing in the wind in Buffalo with two of your receivers out, but hey as Newton himself said the excuse basket is getting low. In the end the running was exactly what did them in as Newton failed to protect the ball while scrambling for a first and fumbled the game away.
To his credit he looked like he wanted to sit down in the shower and cry afterwards so I feel for him. But if you are unable to consistently move the ball through the air and are relying on your legs to make big plays then you have to protect the ball. The flashes this team showed on offense earlier in the season are now the Ghosts of Girlfriends Past.
I respect the hell out of the venom from FS1’s Tanya Ray Fox though. Say it louder for those in the back!
It only took Tom Brady leaving, no OTAs, no preseason, a bunch of starters opting out of the season, delayed games, weeks with no practice, Cam Newton getting and recovering from COVID, some bad weather and the world's stupidest fumble. Congrats on your big win, guys 🙃 https://t.co/BW3D2urnlk
So we now have to ask ourselves, is it time to move on from the Cam Newton experiment?
Sitting at 2-5 and having suffered four losses in a row this team is moving in reverse. They’ve guaranteed their worst record since 2018 (won the Super Bowl btw) and thats assuming they win out. I don’t know about you but I have a hard time imagining this team ripping off a 9-0 run. If they lose one more game, it’s their worst record since 2009 when they went 10-6 and lost in the Wild Card round. If they lose 2 more games it’s their worst record since 2002 when they went 9-7 and missed the playoffs sandwiched between two SB titles. And if they lose any more than that it would be their worst record since 2000 when they went 5-11 in Belichick’s first year at the helm.
Now I’m not excited for it, but I think its time to rip the Jarrett Stidham band-aid off and find out what exactly the Patriots have here. The team needs to figure out whether he’s the next guy or not. If that means trotting him out there for ritual sacrifice then so be it, but the Pats need to determine if Stidham can get it done. If not then they have to make a move this offseason. Theres 3-4 potential first round QBs likely coming out this year and the Patriots should be in a good position to get one of them, even if it’s not Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields.
There’s also been rumors about the return of the prodigal son Jimmy Garoppolo since the 49ers have reportedly been meh on him as the QB of the future.
But he did re-injure his ankle last night and according to Schefter will be out “indefinitely.” That comes after having already missed 2 games and then getting pulled in his first game back. Garoppolo has only made 30 starts out of a possible 56 games in four years in San Francisco due to various injuries including a torn ACL. My point being, I would not be shocked if the Niners decide to move on from him after this season. So if you’re a Patriots fan do you still want him? Do you think Bill can rekindle whatever magic he thought he had with the young QB? I’m not so sure of that as I was just a week ago. Especially after this latest injury since Belichick loves to say the best ability is availability. Either way the Pats will undoubtedly be kicking the tires on anyone with an arm attached to their body this offseason.
The Patriots are in a tough position brought on by the greatest player of all time leaving town, but also from poor drafting over the last few years finally catching up to them. The Pats are one of the oldest teams in the league as a result. Think about it, all of their best players are on the wrong side of 30: Edelman, Stephon Gilmore, both McCourtys, Matthew Slater, plus all the guys who opted out.
The book is out on this year’s draft class, but offensive lineman Michael Onwenu may have been a steal in the 6th round as Pro Football Focus has him ranked as the No. 1 rookie in the league. It’s debatable how much stock to put into PFF rankings, but being No. 1 on any list is pretty damn good.
Michael Onwenu is @PFF's highest-graded rookie in 2020.
He's played 80+ snaps at three different positions along the offensive line.
The books is probably still out on last year too. Chase Winovich looks like a nice role player, Joejuan Williams has shown potential, as has Damien Harris (now that he’s on the field), but N’Keal Harry has been underwhelming and we may soon find out with Jarrett Stidham. 2018 highlights include Isaiah Wynn and Sony Michel. Sigh. Ja’Waun Bentley has flashed at times, other than that there was Ryan Izzo, Braxton Berrios, and Danny Etling as notable names that year. 2017 landed them Deatrich Wise and three whiffs. 2016 was the year they took Cyrus Jones with their first pick and he was an unmitigated disaster. They did draft Joe Thuney that year though who’s been great, Ted Karras has been a solid contributor on the OL, Jacoby Brissett filled in for a game, Elandon Roberts, and a huge what if player in Malcolm Mitchell who looked awesome before knee injuries prematurely ended his career.
So yea, 5 years and arguably two elite players in Thuney and *maybe* Onwenu, but it’s way too early to tell. Other than that Belichick has collected role players, which is a far cry from the 2010 draft he absolutely NAILED, picking up Devin McCourty, Gronk, Brandon Spikes, pre-murderous Aaron Hernandez, and even a starting punter in Zoltan Mesko.
Bill Belichick on @OMFonWEEI: "I mean, look, we paid Cam Newton $1 million. It’s obvious that we didn’t have any money. It’s nobody’s fault. That’s what we did the last five years. We sold out. We won three Super Bowls, played in a fourth and played in an AFC Championship Game." pic.twitter.com/5LGeUboNGA
I don’t say all this to be an alarmist, I say it to be pragmatic. This team is facing a tall order and needs to really nail their next series of moves and the next draft to set themselves up for a rebound. If nothing else do it to shut up the Fired Football Coaches of America chirping from the peanut gallery like Rex Ryan.
I was watching this live yesterday and Rex was trying to play it cool and say it matter of factly, but you could feel the simmering rage in his voice after getting beat like a drum by Belichick and Brady for years.
I am not a draft expert nor do I do enough research to put together mock drafts like some of the other bloggers here at The 300s, but hindsight is more fun anyways. With that being said, I have a pretty wait and see type attitude on the draft because it’s impossible to grade a draft before anyone even laces up their Nikes. Anyone who says they know otherwise is lying to you.
1st Round: Patriots trade the No. 22 pick to the Charges for two 3rd rounders, No. 37 and No. 71
Least surprising (non) pick of the draft, which doesn’t make it any less frustrating for everyone waiting for the Patriots to pick for 3 hours before they traded out. Schefter also said the Pats could still get the guy they wanted at No. 37 instead of picking him at No. 22. Well I guess give them credit for not reaching on their first pick THIS far, but maybe that says more about overvaluing a guy a bit much? Remains to be seen.
Their first pick of the night was a safety from a Division II school I’ve never even heard of. At first glance this seems like an absolutely bananas reach, but most mock drafts didn’t have Dugger too much lower than where the Pats took him. From all the reports I’ve read he seems to be a freak athlete with the ability to float around position-wise on the field plus he returns punts, which the Pats desperately need someone besides Edelman to do well. All things that Belichick loves. At 6’2″ he adds another big body at corner for the Pats next to 6’1″ Stephon Gilmore and 6’3″ Joejuan Williams. Projects to be an eventual replacement for Patrick Chung and could likely drop down to cover tight ends like Chung.
Also, Scott Zolak shamed anyone for shitting on a Division II player because of his experience playing with a DII player himself.
You can all sit there and laugh at D2 kids. I played with Ben Coates. One of the greatest TEs of all time. Stud, went to Livingstone College. It’s now defunct. We laughed at him til he took that pass in fiat 55 yards vs Bills. It’s football
Uche is an undersized edge guy who didn’t start a game at Michigan until his senior year, which doesn’t sound great, but is a high ceiling freak athlete who excelled at the Senior Bowl against other top competition. He also has the positional flexibility to play LB or on the line, which the Pats love.
Josh Uche can play linebacker or as a pass rusher in the Patriots' defense. Think Kyle Van Noy or Jamie Collins. Super athletic. He can fill multiple roles in the Patriots' defense. Shorter but super long arms.
This team is BARREN at tight end so I expect Asiasi to compete for the starting role Day 1 if he can pick up the playbook.
Oh hell yeah, Belichick. #Patriots draft Devin Asiasi, one of my favorite tight ends in the draft. Burst and speed to get vertical up the seam and change of direction. Pass-catcher. https://t.co/GH7iPEnAKo
3rd Round No. 101: Virginia Tech TE Dalton Keene (6’4″ 253 lbs):
Dalton “The Cooler” Keene. Dalton “Pain Don’t Hurt” Keene. This kid better have seen Roadhouse because I am not referring to him as anything other than Swayze references from here on out. People complained the Patriots did nothing to plan for life after Gronk last year so this year they went ahead and drafted two tight ends back to back in the 3rd. Seems aggressive, but the Pats got next to nothing out of the position last year and had one of the worst tight end groups in the league (37 catches, 2 TDs). The Pats haven’t taken two tight ends in the same draft, let alone back to back, since the Gronk/Hernandez draft in 2010.
Another tight end for the #Patriots: Dalton Keene was the best tester at tight end at the combine this year. https://t.co/7b52viqz2x
Kicker was a big need for the Pats after the debacle last season and cutting Gostkowski this offseason. Taking a kicker in the fifth round though is questionable. Taking a kicker that wasn’t really on anyone’s board also isn’t ideal. Oh and apparently there wasn’t even much game film of him except for a few YouTube clips. Sweet! Before the next pick was even in though the internet had descended on Rohrwasser for a tattoo on his arm that apparently symbolizes some right wing gun nut group the 3 Percenters. Jemelle Hill wasted no time in labeling his a white supremacist. Rohrwasser quickly denied that he supported the group saying he didn’t understand what the tat meant and he’d be getting it covered up. A bad look for the kid out of the gate, but not entirely unbelievable. He also had a questionable IG post about a controversial public speaker. Not a great start, but maybe we give the kid more than five minutes in the public eye before collectively deciding to #cancel him.
6th Round No. 182: Michigan OG Mike Onwenu (6’3″ 350 lbs):
New Patriots guard Michael Onwenu allowed two sacks in 1,198 pass-blocking snaps at Michigan, per @pff. Zero last season.
Patriots just got the OL steal of the draft imo. Michael Onwenu is a stud. Late 3rd rd grade from me. People overvalue traits a little bit at guard, plenty of guards that aren't elite athletes but physically and technically do just fine. That's him
6th Round No. 195: Wake Forest OL Justin Herron (6’5″ 305 lbs):
Herron was a four year starter and a team captain at Wake Forest last year.
The Patriots select Wake Forest OT Justin Herron with their next sixth-round pick, No. 195. The 6-foot-5, 290-pound Herron was a team captain last year, when he was a grad student at the school.
Absolute MONEY name. Mike Reiss projects him as a special teamer.
The Patriots select Wyoming LB Cassh Maluia with their next sixth-round pick (No. 204). He is 5-foot-11 and 231 pounds, and ran a 4.53 in the 40. Could be eyed with core special teams contributions in mind.
My biggest gripe with this draft was that the Patriots didn’t take a single WR in a loaded receiver class or a single QB even as guys like Jake Fromm continued to slide. It seems like Bill is pretty comfortable with Stidham throwing to the current depth chart of Julian Edelman, N’Keal Harry, Mohamed Sanu, and Jacoby Meyers. Not terrible, but it also wasn’t enough last year with Tom Brady throwing to them. So hopefully the combination of a young QB actually throwing to fellow young players, the addition of a couple tight ends, Sanu getting healthy, oh and the addition (for now) of WR Marquise Lee is a serviceable receiver core.
Almost as if he could hear all of our bitching from his place on Nantucket, Bill then signed two quarterbacks, four receivers, and another pair of tight ends (not including Thaddeus Moss) immediately following the draft. All four receivers are 5’11” or shorter though as the team may be looking to plan for the future at slot.
Undrafted free agents signed by the Patriots (via Patriots.com)
QB Brian Lewerke, Michigan State (6’2″, 213 lbs)
QB J’Mar Smith, Louisiana Tech (6′, 228 lbs)
WR Will Hastings, Auburn (5’10”, 175 lbs)
This one intrigues me the most as Hastings was Jarret Stidham’s go to slot receiver at Auburn.
WR Sean Riley, Syracuse (5’8″, 178 lbs)
WR Isaiah Zuber, Mississippi State (5’11”, 184 lbs)
WR Jeff Thomas, Miami (5’9″, 170 lbs)
TE Rashod Berry, Ohio State (6’3″, 263 lbs)
TE Jake Burt, Boston College (6’3″, 260 lbs)
Hey a guy I’ve actually seen play in person before! He also got a pretty big signing bonus so the Pats clearly see something.
Boston College TE Jake Burt, an undrafted free agent, is signing with the New England Patriots and is receiving $80,000 guaranteed to do it, one of the larger guarantees for undrafted TEs, per source.
As a fellow short, I love this pickup. The little wrecking ball racked up over 3,000 rushing yards in college so he’s not just a third down guy.
DT Bill Murray, William & Mary (6’4″, 280 lbs)
DE Nick Coe, Auburn (6’4″, 280 lbs)
DE Trevon Hill, Miami (6’3″, 248 lbs)
LB Kyahva Tezino, San Diego State (6′, 235 lbs)
LB De’Jon Harris, Arkansas (5’11”, 234 lbs)
“Per NESN, the Patriots gave Harris a significant deal to join the team, perhaps illustrating how high his chances are to make the team as an Elandon Roberts, early-down linebacker replacement.”
NFL mock drafts are largely useless, except The 300s Mock Draft from Mattes, but nobody really knows what the hell is going to happen in the draft. Joe Burrow is definitely going No. 1 overall, but after that its anyones guess which way the draft unfolds. With that being said there has been some chatter around the potential of the Patriots going against everyone’s expectations and trading up to draft Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa.
Is that really a possibility?
Over at Pro Football Talk Peter King has the Patriots trading up to No. 13 to snag a sliding Tua after the Dolphins take Oregon QB Justin Herbert at No. 5. Well that would assume Detroit (could use a young QB), Jacksonville (could definitely use a QB), and the Chargers (Tyrod Taylor is QB1 right now) all pass on him. Even with the medical red flags considered, I find that pretty hard to believe. King’s breakdown of the scenario below:
I don’t think that would even be enough to get up to No. 3, especially considering Thuney’s on the franchise tag for one year at $15M.
In the past 20 years Belichick has traded up in the first round four times, but not since 2012 when he traded up twice to land Dont’a Hightower and Chandler Jones. They do have 12 draft picks and obviously BB loves to wheel and deal having made 77 draft day trades over the years so the Pats will likely be moving one way or the other.
On Sports Illustrated Bert Breer has the Dolphins taking Justin Herbert at No. 5 and Tua going No. 6 overall to the Chargers, but hedges by saying it’s a hunch because the Chargers GM Tom Telesco is “as cagey as they come.” Meaning they could legitimately take a Tackle here and ride with Tyrod Taylor at QB or it could just be the Chargers trying to throw people off the scent. Breer does go on to say though,
“And if Tagovailoa doesn’t go here? I really don’t know how far he’ll fall.”
That would seem to be the prime scenario for the Patriots and potentially fit in with King’s prediction. Tua slides a bit so the Pats don’t have to give up the farm to trade into the Top 5. Maybe Tua does fall to No. 13 and Bill swings a deal with San Francisco who just so happen to owe the Pats a franchise QB after the Jimmy G deal.
And with reports of the Patriots being nowhere close to an extension with Joe Thuney, who they franchise tagged, maybe he gets included to sweeten the deal for SF along with a few picks. This almost makes too much sense because what kind of team is going to trade for a guard on a one year $15 million deal? Oh I don’t know, maybe a team that feels like it’s on the cusp of a title and maybe even lost a close one in the Super Bowl last year?
The biggest knock on Tua leading up to the Draft has obviously been his health after dislocating his hip last season at Alabama. He’s also has had surgery on both of his ankles and has broken his wrist twice.
Belichick has NEVER been shy about drafting guys in the first round with blatant injury histories though, sometimes bordering on malpractice as the GM. Sony Michel has been on the field, but already had a repaired ACL when the Pats took him in 2018 and just this past offseason had a “minor” knee surgery quietly. In 2014 Dominique Easley already had two ACL tears when he was coming out of Florida and wouldn’t ya know it, could never stay on the field for the Pats because of ACL injuries. So don’t let injury history make you think Belichick won’t take a guy with potential because he will.
Plus then we have the well known Belichick mouthpiece Michael Lombardi with this quote below.
“That’s got to get around, that at least one team failed the physical on Tua,” Lombardi said on The GM Shuffle podcast. “Others have to be concerned now as well. … It’s not just his hip. … I mean, he’s brittle. You can’t deny it. … Look, I’m not disputing the evaluation. I’m saying that they flunked him on not just the hip [but] on the multitude of injuries. The risk far outweighs the reward.”
Is that Bill using an NFL media pundit to try and tank Tua’s stock value around the league?
Jesus christ did I just talk myself into Bill Belichick trading up to draft an injury prone QB? I think I did. If Tua slides and the team can get him without completely mortgaging the future with a Ricky Williams type trade then I say absolutely do it. I’m of the mindset that you should draft a QB every single year because they’re that valuable. Throw as many darts at the board as possible until you hit the bullseye because until then it doesn’t really matter how strong the rest of your roster is. With Tom Brady gone, that should be a draft strategy the Patriots strongly consider. Does Tua’s injury history and size concern me? Sure, but this is also a league that just saw a 5’9″ guy in Kyler Murray go No. 1 overall last year as QBs get hit less and less every year. Tua’s ceiling is so high as he was the hands down No. 1 pick heading into last season and was the 1A after Joe Burrow’s monster year before his hip injury. So if you can get him without completely hamstringing yourself, do it.
The time has arrived, folks! The annual Mattes NFL Mock Draft is here! (I know you have all been waiting with BATED breath. Right, Lippa??)
With no sports on the docket now or anytime in the foreseeable future, the prospect of the NFL draft taking place in just a few weeks is truly one of the only things keeping me going during these very dark times. For those of you whom, like myself, still can’t wait till then, here’s a deep – and I mean DEEP – dive into how I think the first round will shake out come Thursday, April 23.
This ain’t your daddy’s mock either; this big boy comes complete with five trades and a full write-up for every selection. (None of that “no mocked trades” B.S. Get outta here with that garbage.)
Do I have connections or sources for any of these? Nope! Nothing but hours and hours of research and faithful Twitter surfing.
For what it’s worth, I hope you enjoy! And be sure to tell me how wrong I am on Facebook or in the comments section!
1. Cincinnati – Joe Burrow, QB, LSU: Really no need to overthink this one. The Bengals aren’t passing on the best QB to come out of the draft since Andrew Luck, no matter what they’re offered. Lock this one in. Moving on.
2. Washington – Chase Young, DE, Ohio State: Much like Burrow, Young is one of the best players to come out at his position that we’ve seen in years. (Besides maybe Myles Garrett.) While Washington could be tempted to trade back, it would take quite the haul to pass on a talent like Young. Especially with Ryan Kerrigan being on the wrong side of 30, Ron Rivera needs another talent to pair with Montez Sweat along the defensive front. To be honest, the idea of what those two could become together is absolutely frightening. (Also, for anyone thinking there’s even a chance they take Tua here after drafting Dwayne Haskins last year AND trading for Kyle Allen, you’re delusional. Please stop with that nonsense.)
3. (TRADE w/ DET) Miami – Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama: Don’t fall for the smokescreens!!! There have been numerous reports this week, from very credible sources, that the Fins are souring on Tua and might instead want to draft Justin Herbert. Ironically, this was right after Tua was cleared (once again) after yet another perfect medical check-up in early March, which should finally put to rest the “injury concerns” people seem to have with him. Brian Flores has also stated he wants a QB who has “it,” and that screams Tua. (See: 2018 College Football Playoff National Championship). If anyone in Miami’s brass honestly believes Herbert is the better prospect, they need to be fired immediately. Like right now. If the Dolphins pass on Tua, they could regret it for years.
4. (TRADE w/ NYG) Los Angeles Chargers – Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon: Now, I know it seems like I just took a shot at my guy J-Herb a moment ago, but that was more about Tua’s potential for greatness as opposed to anything about the former Ducks leading man. From a physical standpoint, Herbert has the size, arm, and tools to be a very solid NFL starter, but he’s far from a sure thing. Still, the Chargers pretty much placed all their eggs in the “drafting a rookie QB basket” this offseason, and that’s exactly why they need to trade up to get one here. No, I don’t believe either the Giants or Lions would take Herbert at No. 4 or 5, but a team like the Jags (or another sneaky darkhorse) could choose to leapfrog L.A. and completely A-bomb the Chargers’ entire plan. Plus, I think Tyrod Taylor could be the perfect mentor for a guy like Herbert, who shares some similar traits. Anthony Lynn and Co. choose not to mess around and will get their guy here.
5. (TRADE w/ MIA) Detroit – Isaiah Simmons, DEF, Clemson: The Lions might win the draft simply by getting the most talented overall football player in this class, bar none, while also picking up a few more draft picks in the process. Simmons is a true rarity: a defender who can play either linebacker, corner, or safety and did so across multiple seasons at an elite level for one of the nation’s top programs. A lot of people think Jeff Okudah should go here, and cornerback is a big need. But former Belichick-disciple Matt Patricia will likely value Simmons’s versatility above all and jump at the chance to take a game-changing defensive weapon here.
6. (TRADE w/ LAC) New York Giants – Tristan Wirfs, OT, Iowa: In a class with someserious tackle talent, the Giants will have their pick of the litter. Wirfs is widely regarded as the top dog and blew away everyone at the Combine. Not only will he serve as a great protector for Daniel Jones, but his mauling run-blocking style could also help pave the way for Saquon Barkley for years to come. He’d likely start off on the right side, and then simply slide over to left once the Giants cut ties with Nate Solder.
7. CAR – Jeff Okudah, CB, Ohio State: The best corner in the draft goes to a team in desperate need of help in the defensive backfield, especially after losing James Bradberry in free agency and (for whatever reason) cutting Eric Reid. Fortunately, Tre Boston was re-signed to a three-year deal and Juston Burris was an OK acquisition. Even still, though, the Panthers really need some help, particularly on the boundary. Okudah would immediately help in that regard from Day One.
8. ARI – Jedrick Wills, OT, Alabama: Not nearly as polished as Wirfs, what Wills lacks in completeness and brute strength, he makes up for in athleticism. His ability to move in space and keep up with speedy edge rushers will help allow Kyler Murray extend plays out of the pocket. And while he does have lapses in pass-protection at times, he can develop on the right side of the line for a few seasons since the team already signed left tackle D.J. Humphries to a new three-deal in February. Besides Humphries, the Cards need O-line help in a huge way, and Wills will provide that.
9. (TRADE w/ JAX) Denver – Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama: Courtland Sutton broke out in his second season, and he and second-year signal-caller Drew Lock could be quite the explosive pair again in 2020. However, Lock still needs more weapons, and Jeudy is probably the most complete, pro-ready receiver in the draft. His ability to play inside and outside will compliment Sutton’s dominance on the sideline very well. Jeudy also has the jets to take it the house on any pretty much any play (24 TDs in his past 28 games at ‘Bama). He and CeeDee Lamb are very close in terms of being the top wide-out in this class, but I gotta give the edge to Jeudy.
10. Cleveland – Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia: Jack Conklin was an excellent signing to shore up the right side of the O-line, but Baker Mayfield still needs help on his blindside. While Wirfs and Wills are the exciting, shiny sports cars with more upside, Thomas is the less sexy but super reliable Toyota Corolla who you know will always get the job done and is guaranteed to last for years. Much like the soon-to-be Hall of Fame left tackle the Browns used to have with the same last name, this Thomas will also be an anchor and team staple in Cleveland for the next decade or more.
11. New York Jets – CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma: As I said, you could easily make the argument for Lamb being the top WR in the draft, and Sam Darnold should do cartwheels if the former Sooner lands in the Big Apple. Especially after losing Robby Anderson to Carolina this offseason, Darnold needs some talent to throw to in a big way. The Breshad Perriman signing was nice, but especially with Quincy Enunwa’s health being a big question mark, Lamb would likely become the WR1 for the Jets right out of the gate. This dude is a PROBLEM in the open field, and he’ll become the best playmaker the Jets have had in quite some time. Seriously, though, just look:
12. Las Vegas – Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU: After Jeudy and Lamb, most view Henry Ruggs as the next best receiver in the class, and many might feel this is too high for Jefferson. However, Raider’s GM Mike Mayock made it pretty clear last year that he values high-character, championship-experienced guys above all else, and he doesn’t give a flyin’ you-know-what about others’ “projected draft slots” (e.g. his choice of Clelin Ferrell at No. 4 overall last year). Jefferson fits the Mayock Mold to a T, and let’s also not forget that the dude put up 111 catches for over 1,500 yards as Joe Burrow’s No. 1 guy last season. He also posted a 4.43-second 40 at the Combine. To be honest, he’s probably better than Ruggs, and he is tailor-made for the Raiders.
13. San Francisco – Javon Kinlaw, DL, South Carolina: Kinlaw might be the prospect with the highest range of outcomes in the class. A formerly homeless teen who worked his way up from JUCO to becoming an AP All-American and potential first-round pick, the dude is obviously a warrior. He’s also got an incredible blend of skill and physical traits (6’5”, 324 pounds) that would make most D-coordinators drool. However, he’s also dealt with injuries (hip surgery) and, at times, inconsistent play which gives some pause. Still, after trading away DeForest Buckner and acquiring another first-round pick in the process, the Niners can afford to take a gamble on the 22-year-old’s immense upside.
14. (TRADE w/ Tampa Bay) Philadelphia – Henry Ruggs, WR, Alabama: Jeudy was the go-to target for the Tide for the past few seasons, but Ruggs was the ace-in-the-hole, speed demon with insane 4.2-second speed. While he does possess some all-around ability, Ruggs could end up being exactly what the Eagles were hoping the second coming of DeSean Jackson would become. He’ll serve as the new deep threat for the big-armed Carson Wentz, and the Eagles will have no issue trading up to get him. If they don’t, he won’t last much longer than this.
15. (TRADE w/ Denver) Jacksonville – Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn: Once considered a top-five pick, a weak Combine performance and positional value is cause for a bit of a drop. Unlike Kinlaw, Brown is a bit more rigid in terms of where he can play along the line and doesn’t have quite as much burst. Still, he was a First-Team All-American and can absolutely dominate opponents across from him in the trenches. After trading away Calais Campbell, Brown could soon become the new anchor on the D-line for the Jags.
16. Atlanta – Yetur Gross-Matos, EDGE, Penn State: While the Falcons could go for another corner here, I’m actually a fan of Isaiah Oliver and they need more pass-rushers, even after signing Dante Fowler. Gross-Matos is a high-upside, versatile defender who can play standing up or as a down lineman in a 4-3. He also compiled 17.5 sacks and over 90 total tackles across his past two seasons for the Nittany Lions.
17. Dallas – Grant Delpit, S, LSU: While Gross-Matos would’ve been a nice replacement for Robert Quinn, the Cowboys have also needed safety help for a while now. And after losing their former leader of the secondary in Byron Jones to free agency, they need another field general to man the back half of the defense. Though he may be a bit lacking in the pass-coverage department, he can set the tone and lay the wood with the best of ‘em. Again, he lacks the range and technique many might want from a first-round safety, but the potential for more is definitely there and he was a title-winner. The team also went out of its way to meet with Delpit specifically at the Combine last month.
18. Miami – Austin Jackson, OT, USC: A lot of people might be shocked to see Mekhi Becton still on the board at this point, and they might think I’m foolish to think he wouldn’t be the pick here. However, per multiple reports, Jackson has been skyrocketing up many draft boards lately, and much like Becton people are also in love with his potential. Both are raw, but there might actually be less red flags with Jackson, specifically in terms of weight/size management. Flores and Co. are also the perfect type of crew to coach a guy like Jackson up, and there’s no doubt that Miami is in desperate need of help along the O-line.
19. Las Vegas – C.J. Henderson, CB, Florida: Henderson might be the most undervalued player in the entire draft. The 2019 First-Team All-SEC cover man put up some solid stats (11 PBUs and 33 tackles) in only nine games last year against some serious competition. The Raiders also gave up the eighth-most passing yards per game in the NFL last season. Henderson would be a welcomed addition.
20. Jacksonville – Jordan Love, QB, Utah State: Before all the Minshew Maniacs attack me for this one, this pick actually makes a lot of sense. I do not expect Love to beat Gardner Minshew in camp this season, but his long-term upside is WAY higher. (Think poor man’s Patrick Mahomes in terms of ability and playing style. Yeah, I said it!) Also, if the team was really sold on Minshew, Foles wouldn’t have had a chance of getting back on the field at the end of last year, contract-related reasons or not. This is also the second of Jacksonville’s two first-rounders this year, and I mocked them to get even more picks with my previously predicted trade with Denver. In the NFL, teams are smart to hedge their bets, and there’s really not a lot for the Jags to lose by rolling the dice on Love here.
21. (TRADE w/ PHI) Tampa Bay – Mekhi Becton, OT, Louisville: The slide finally ends for the 6’7”, 364-pound mountain of a man. His titan-esque size and power alone guarantee that he’ll be a force to be reckoned with against any level of competition. At the same time, though, these very same attributes can cause for significant issues with movement and technique. But his upside is too much to pass on here, and the Bucs are in desperate need of an upgrade at right tackle. Donovan Smith, who is a much better pass-protector, can protect new QB Tom Brady’s blindside, while Becton serves as a monster, road-grader on the other. In fact, Becton’s presence will be key for who I expect for the Bucs to take with their next selection (oooh foreshadowing). It’s going to be fun watching to see what this guy ultimately becomes, which truly could be great.
22. Minnesota – K’Lavon Chaisson, EDGE, LSU: There’s no doubt that there is a GLARING hole at cornerback after the team saw its top three from last year all leave this offseason. However, there are still a couple solid potential choices left at the position, and the Vikes can grab one with their next selection at 25. Getting another rusher off the edge is also a big need, especially after losing long-time stalwart Everson Griffen. Chaisson is a long, quick but still powerful rusher who served as one of the Tigers’ team leaders since he was a freshman, even though he did miss all but one game in 2018 with an ACL injury. Last year, he bounced back in a major way, posting 6.5 sacks, 13 TFLs, and helped secure a national championship to boot.
23. New England – Patrick Queen, LB, LSU: Queen is exactly what the Pats defense has been missing for the past few seasons. Not a major thumper or pass-rusher, Queen is instead super fast and excels in coverage and playing sideline to sideline. He could probably even play safety in a pinch, if necessary. He can be what the team was hoping Jamie Collins was going to be (both the first AND second time around). Losing Kyle Van Noy to Miami is also going to hurt a lot more than most people think. And while Queen is not the same type of player, he’ll add a new element and bring versatility to what is already a pretty loaded D in Foxborough.
24. New Orleans – Kenneth Murray, LB, Oklahoma: Murray is basically Queen with a bit more size, and honestly these last two picks could easily end up being flip-flopped. Murray takes a bit more risks than Queen, but he also has more concrete college production to back him up. Demario Davis can handle one side of the field, and Murray can be relied upon to make plays on the other. For a team with little needs, the Saints just keep getting better.
25. Minnesota – Trevon Diggs, CB, Alabama: The Vikings get their cornerback here, and maybe one of the biggest steals of the first round so far. He has it all: size, speed, strength, and four years of experience under the legendary Nick Saban. OH, and he also happens to be Stefon Diggs’s little bro (YUP!). This should be fun…
26. (TRADE w/ MIA) Detroit – A.J. Epenesa, DE, Iowa: Kind of like Andrew Thomas, Epenesa is a no-nonsense, consistent, experienced, reliable player at his position. A coach’s dream who won’t win with outstanding traits or athleticism, but someone who still put up 23 sacks the past two seasons and does very little wrong. He’s the exact type of guy Matt Patricia wants on his team and will almost be a mirror-image of Trey Flowers on the other end of the defensive line.
27. Seattle – Xavier McKinney, S, Alabama: To be honest, McKinney is probably the better all-around safety talent than Delpit, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he went first. I just think the Cowboys like Delpit better. Good for the Seahawks, who get an incredibly smart, consistent backfield leader at the end of the first round. He can bring the type of talent and leadership that’s been severely lacking since the end of the old Legion of Boom.
28. (TRADE w/ BAL) Tampa Bay – Jonathan Taylor, RB, Wisconsin: As a Patriots fan for the past two decades, I can tell you that a Tom Brady offense without a consistent running game is like pizza without a topping; it’s still pretty damn good and gets the job done, but it is far from being at its best. The G.O.A.T. uses the ground game to set up play action better than anyone, and through two seasons now, Ronald Jones has just not proven that he can be the guy. Taylor is an absolute STUD, who put up over 6,100 yards and 50 TDs on the ground for the Badgers over the past three seasons, and he can be relied upon to tote the rock 20-25 games per game right away. His presence would also allow RoJo to focus on being a pass-catching weapon out of the backfield, where he excels.
29. Tennessee – Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, LSU: Some people might be confused to see the team with last season’s leading rusher take another back with their first pick. But two things: 1) Derrick Henry was tagged and not given a long-term deal, and 2) Edwards-Helaire is not the same type of player. CEH will give the team an elite pass-catcher out of the backfield (what Dion Lewis was supposed to be), and he could even take over a featured role for a bit if Henry ends up leaving next offseason.
30. Green Bay – Jalen Reagor, WR, TCU: Basically a clone of former Aaron Rodgers favorite Randall Cobb (5’10”, 194 pounds, 4.46-second 40), Reagor (5’11”, 206 pounds, 4.47-second 40) is a smidge bigger and would give the Packers a counterpart to superstar receiver Davante Adams. Guys like Marquez Valdez-Scantling and Geronimo Allison (who’s now in Detroit) just didn’t work out as planned, and A-Rodg needs more playmakers. Plain and simple.
31. San Francisco – Jeff Gladney, CB, TCU: Small, speedy, and silky like his teammate taken one spot before him, Gladney would help the Niners at a position without a ton of talent behind Richard Sherman. Gladney would also be able to focus on the more explosive opponents Sherman can’t keep up with anymore, and he could learn the finer points of the game from the future HOF.
32. Kansas City – Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU: Yup, that is officially SEVEN former Tigers off the board in the first round. (Guess that’s what happens when ya win the big one.) Anyway, Kendall Fuller departed for Washington, and at this point, it doesn’t look like Bashaud Breeland or Morris Claiborne are coming back either. For a team that was already pretty shaky against the pass to begin with, they’re kind of forced to go corner here. Fulton remains the best of the bunch and is also coming off a title-winning season of his own. Fulton is also very talented and received plus marks from PFF; had it not been for a lengthy suspension for masking a urine sample a few years back, he’d likely have gone much higher than this.
Though the first official 2019 NFL preseason game has already come to pass, we’re still two days away from the first slate of live action for the 30 other teams besides the Broncos and Falcons who have still yet to play. Eleven preseason games are set to take place on Thursday night – one of which being Pats vs. Lions in Detroit – with two more on Friday and three others on Saturday night.
Unless you and your leaguemates are absolute psychopaths, your fantasy draft is still likely a few weeks away. Everyone knows you always wait until, at the very least, after the third week of preseason play has concluded. That’s because most starters usually don’t play in their team’s final preseason game, and there’s nothing worse than losing one of your top guys for the year due to a B.S. injury before the season even starts. Also, there are still a ton of camp battles currently taking place, and most depth charts aren’t even set yet.
(Quick but still entirely related side story: Our very own editor-in-chief Red learned this the hard way a few years back. For some reason, we had to do our draft a little early that year, and it actually took place during the third week of the preseason. Again, this was a few years ago, and Red decided to use his second-round pick on Jordy Nelson, which was a very sound choice at the time. Not even 15 minutes later, probably somewhere in the middle of the fourth round, we all looked up at the bar’s TV screen, only to see Jordy’s knee get absolutely DESTROYED, effectively ending his season – as well as Red’s hopes of fantasy success that year. Of course, we couldn’t restart the draft at that point, and Red was pretty much screwed. So, look, I get it; I’m chomping at the bit to draft my squad already, too. But slow down there, gunpowder. Don’t get “Jordy Nelson-ed.”)
However, it’s never too early to start talking about fantasy football. Never! And that’s why I’m here to provide you with my annual ranking of the top Patriots fantasy players for the upcoming season along with their current ADP, “Mattes-Adjusted ADP,” and other little tidbits to help you win your draft.
(Rankings and predictions are based upon a 12-team, half-point-PPR scoring format. Honestly, if you’re still in a standard league which only counts yards and TDs, get out of the freakin’ Stone Age already! Also, all average draft positions [ADP] are current as of August 6, 2019 and courtesy of FantasyFootballCalculator.com.)
Let’s begin…
Julian Edelman, WR
(ADP: Early fourth round / Mattes-Adjusted ADP: Mid-fourth round)
While the recent thumb injury does cause for a bit of concern, it seems as though Jules is still on track to be ready for the start of the regular season. And there’s absolutely ZERO chance he doesn’t serve as Brady’s numero uno target in the passing game once again. Minus an injury-shortened 2015 campaign, Edelman had put up three-straight 90-plus-catch seasons before last year. And he would’ve had a fourth in 2018 if he wasn’t suspended for the first four games. Even still, he finished last season with over 70 catches and 800-plus yards; he was also on pace for 99 catches were he to play in all 16 games. He even hauled in six TDs, too. About as reliable as they come, the only reason I’m giving him a slight bump down from his current ADP is due to my concerns about the team’s offense as a whole this year. But as long as Brady can keep the ship afloat, Jules will be the first mate helping him lead the way. Draft Jules as a WR2 with absolute confidence. He is far and away the safest Patriot on the board in ANY fantasy draft this year.
Sony Michel, RB
(ADP: Early fifth / Mattes-Adjusted ADP: Late fifth/early sixth)
Sony might be one of the most difficult fantasy players to peg this year. There’s no doubt that he lived up to his first-round NFL draft stock as a rookie last season with a 931-yard, six-TD campaign. And if he played a full season (only played in 13 games), he was on pace for 1,146 rushing yards; that would have been good for sixth in the league. But there are multiple red flags surrounding his fantasy prospects this year. First, there’s his extensive injury history. His degenerative knee condition is only going to get worse over time and will never go away. To be fair, a few of the games he missed last year were due to a freak injury he suffered in Week 7 against the Bears – which truly looked much worse initially – and were it not for that he probably would’ve only missed one or two contests. Still, the concerns are always there. Secondly, he’s a one-dimensional back who does not provide much in the way of receptions, severely hurting his PPR value. (Even though he’s reportedly looked great as a receiver in camp so far, I’m sorry, he’s not suddenly going to become the next Alvin Kamara.) Thirdly, there’s also still James White and rookie Damien Harris to worry about. White is the team’s main pass-catching option at the position, and Harris is a back who excels in all facets of the game. In fact, some people believe Harris could steal the job outright from Michel this year if he’s not careful. (More on that in a bit.) But for me, I still think Sony is an absolute grinder who showed a lot of toughness last year. The team still believes in him and he’ll still get plenty of burn this season, especially on the goal line. His TD upside alone is enough to keep me believing in him as a top-25 back in 2019. I guess I’m OK with him as my RB2, but if you aim to grab him as an RB3 instead, I think you’ll be just fine.
James White, RB
(ADP: Mid-fifth / Mattes-Adjusted ADP: Late eighth/early ninth)
Here’s where we see my first big ADP discrepancy, but it’s not meant as any disrespect to my boy Big Game James. Anyone who knows me knows that I’m a huge fan of his, and White did actually lead the team in total targets, receptions, and receiving TDs in 2018. But that just ain’t happening again. The team’s receiving corps might have been even worse off at times last season than it is right now, especially early on when Jules was out and Gronk was a shell of his former self. Until late last season, Brady relied on White to be the keystone of the offense, but the tide started to turn in the second half. Through the first eight weeks, White was targeted an average of nine times per game; over the final eight, that number dropped to six. The team also went out and acquired more weapons in the passing game this offseason – including the aforementioned Harris, who could really cut into White’s share of the load even more in 2019. Also, White isn’t getting another 94 carries, which was 59 (!!!) more than his typical career average. I could see another 50-plus-catch season for White, which is something he’s done multiple times before. But I promise you that he will not come close to sniffing the numbers he put up last year. You can take that to the bank. Look at White as no more than a RB4/5. DO NOT draft him anywhere near the fifth round this year. Just don’t.
Damien Harris, RB
(ADP: Early ninth / Mattes-Adjusted ADP: Mid-to-late ninth)
I’ve mentioned him a few times so far in this piece, but the truth is nobody has an effing clue how this kid will be used this season. For those who don’t know who he is yet, Damien Harris is one of the team’s third-round draft picks this year who served as one of Nick Saban’s lead horses down at Alabama for the past few years. Not only is he said to be a real stand-up type of dude, but unlike Michel and White, Harris is someone who is as equally adept at toting the rock as he is at catching it. In fact, many believe he has the ability to become the Pats’ No. 1 back by the end of the season. I’m not saying it’s impossible, but unless Michel’s knees completely explode, he’s too talented to cede his role entirely to Harris. Especially with the team’s continually expanding reliance and focus upon the running game, both players will still get their fair share in 2019, but Michel is still the back to own. With other running backs like Jerick McKinnon, Peyton Barber, and Carlos Hyde (*YAWN*) going around the same draft slot as Harris, though, why not take a chance on the rookie here? I wouldn’t necessarily advise against it.
N’Keal Harry, WR
(ADP: Late ninth / Mattes-Adjusted ADP: 11th round or later)
Another rookie who nobody has had a chance to even see play yet, Harry has not had as great of a camp as I expected. One of the more complete receivers to come out of the draft in years, there’s a reason Belichick made him the first-ever wide receiver he chose to take in the first round. However, Harry’s struggled with drops so far this summer, and while he hasn’t been horrible, according to reports he is being outplayed significantly by fellow rookie Jakobi Meyers as well as free-agent pickup Maurice Harris. I think that Harry has a chance to be a beast as soon as he puts it all together; especially given his elite size (6’4″, 225 pounds), he could be a key fantasy bench piece just based on his potential to be used in the red zone. But until I hear more encouraging reports on his progress, I’d rather snag guys like DeSean Jackson, Emmanuel Sanders, Keke Coutee, and Donte Moncrief, all of whom are being selected after Harry in drafts so far. But, if he does reach his potential in Year One, he could end up being one of the steals of the draft. It’s honestly just too early to tell, and he is currently the epitome of a high-risk/high-reward player.
Tom Brady, QB
(ADP: Mid-11th / Mattes-Adjusted ADP: Undrafted)
Novice fantasy players might be shocked to see the G.O.A.T. so far down most draft boards – and it may be especially jarring to see that I personally wouldn’t even take him at all! However, while he is unquestionably the greatest quarterback to ever play in terms of real-life football, the same cannot be said for fantasy. There are a solid 20 or so QBs who I guarantee you will score more points than Brady this season – particularly those who will also get you points on the ground – and there’s typically only 12 who start each week. I honestly believe Brady is being drafted on nothing more than name alone, which is vastly skewing his ADP. While TB12 will have his top-12 weeks this season, you’re probably better off snagging an extra RB or WR at this point in the draft to build depth. Then you can simply stream QBs each week until one hits. Nobody loves you more than me, Tom, but you’re not going to be on any of my fantasy rosters this season.
Josh Gordon, WR
(ADP: Early 14th / Mattes-Adjusted ADP: 12th round or later)
Choosing to draft Flash right now is a complete roll of the dice; I’m not gonna lie. Though he did officially apply for reinstatement with the league this past weekend, there has been less than zero indication as to when he could possibly be allowed to return to action. But after his performance in just 11 games with the Pats last year – 40 catches / 720 yards / 3 TDs – there should be no doubt that he’s still got it in him. He’s also reportedly worked out with Brady this offseason to stay fresh, so the two could start clicking again right away if and when he returns (which I think he will). If you’re comfortable with your bench and are simply taking stabs late in the draft, go for the gold with Gordon. He could truly be a league-winner.
There are other guys – like the aforementioned Meyers and Harris, and maybe even Ben Watson when he returns – who could be sneaky options at certain points this year. (And maybe, juuuussst maybe, my guy Dontrelle Inman could still come through, too. 🤞🏻) But to be entirely honest, this is likely the only list of Patriots players you should be concerned about heading into your fantasy season. Again, there’s still a lot to be fleshed out before the really meaningful action begins, but hopefully this little primer helped to whet your appetite and start to prepare you for what lies ahead.
We’re almost there, everyone! And best of luck to all in this fantasy season.
Okay so maybe *technically* speaking I wasn’t on the show, but I’ll take the exposure however I can get it so shoutout to my guy Tom E. Curran. For anyone thats too lazy to watch the clip Tom says I should zero in on the middle guy there in Ryan Mallet for the most appropriate comparison to Jarrett Stidham and thats not exactly promising.
Although I have to admit I am shocked and offended and hurt that Tom didn’t name drop us on the air. Had me feeling like Walter White, aside from all the blue meth making and money laundering.
Rounds 2 and 3 of the NFL draft will take place on Friday night, and the Patriots are currently slated to pick five times across the two rounds. I highly expect the team to complete some type of trade (or two) involving those picks, per usual, but Belichick & Co. are obviously still going to be selecting a few guys at some point tonight.
Myself and Joey B already gave you our very disparate yet equally insightful takes on the team’s selection last night in Round 1, N’Keal Harry. Personally, I am a HUGE fan of the pick, and I’m glad the Pats were able to immediately help alleviate what was easily the team’s biggest need. However, there are still a few positions (TE, OT, DL, LB, QB, S) which could use some reinforcements as well.
Before things kick off again tonight at 7 p.m., here’s my quick wishlist of some potential players who I’m hoping the Pats might be able to snag on Day 2:
Dre’Mont Jones (DT, Ohio State): This is a guy who I’ve been all over for a while now. A true athlete, Jones is perfect for the 3-technique. Much like guys such as Quinnen Williams and Ed Oliver, who were both top-10 picks last night, Jones uses incredible first-step quickness and motor to push the pocket and disrupt opposing backfields. Certainly no run-stuffer, Jones would give the Pats an interior pass-rusher (8.5 sacks last season) to pair alongside Lawrence Guy and under-the-radar free-agent signing Mike Pennel. He also has the ability to chase down running backs out of the backfield as well. I think he truly could be one of the biggest steals of the draft, and he is being slept on BIG TIME by the entire league right now.
Nasir Adderly (S, Delaware): Of the team’s top outstanding needs, I’d say that safety falls toward the bottom…for now. Let’s not forget, though, that Devin McCourty – who toyed with the idea of retirement this offseason – is 32 years old AND on the final year of his contract. Adderly is still very raw and may not have played against top competition in college, but the talent and ball skills are there, with 10 picks and 23 passes defensed over the past three seasons. He could learn how to become a true single-high, center-field stud from one of the game’s very best, and then ultimately replace him when McCourty does actually move on for good.
Jawaan Taylor (OT, Florida): I am literally shocked that this dude is still on the board. (I had him going top 10 in my mock, as did many others!) While he may not be the best pass-blocker, he is truly a mauler who can set the tone in the running game. And with the team expected to continuing relying heavily upon Sony Michel and the ground attack moving forward, Taylor is a perfect fit. And honestly, as good as Marcus Cannon was a couple years ago, I feel like he’s regressed significantly and is no longer worth his $7 million-plus salary. Taylor could allow the Pats to move on from Cannon and lock down the right side of the line for years to come. (The team will likely need to move up within the first 10 picks of Round 2 to get him, though. He’s not going to last out there for much longer.)
Jaylon Ferguson (DE, Louisiana Tech):Joey B has already been vocal about his love for the FBS’s all-time sack leader (45), who may be falling down draft boards due to a minor altercation he got into as a freshman – which resulted in a deferred sentence, $189 fine, and no further issues since. No I wasn’t there, but it seems like what happened pales in comparison to some of the off-field concerns associated with other current and potential NFL stars lately. On the field, there should be no concern. Besides holding the aforementioned record, this is a guy who dominated in college, as 27% (!!!) of his tackles went for a loss. So almost a THIRD of his tackles prevented dudes from even getting past the line of scrimmage. Belichick could have a ton of fun shaping and molding a guy with his potential, and after losing Flowers the team could use some immediate pass-rushing help.
Will Grier (QB, West Virginia): I keep going back and forth on how high I want the Pats to draft a QB – or if I even want them to draft one at all. But with the amount of capital the team has this year, I think it totally makes sense. I already said in my mock that Grier might be the most underrated signal-caller in this class, who could truly be better than any of the guys already selected ahead of him, and apparently the Pats love him. Besides a shaky Senior Bowl performance, Grier was one of the nation’s most efficient passers, completing over 67% of his passes last season to go along with 37 TDs. He doesn’t have the biggest arm in the world, but he’s got the confidence and leadership of a lion, and word is he is absolutely adored by teammates. He’s exactly the type of presence who could step in for Brady once he’s all said and done, and he also possesses the same type of football I.Q. It would be really fun to root for this kid.
Jace Sternberger (TE, Texas A&M): Also another one of Joey B’s guys, Sternberger is smart, can run, and catches well. Many even think he’s athletic enough to play in the slot as a receiver. He does struggle in pass protection and didn’t play in a pro-style offense, but he would give the team some more explosiveness. Already lacking in that department anyway, the Pats didn’t really gain much in that regard with the Harry pick, as good as he is. Sternberger can give the Pats a true move tight end that can help Brady stretch the field and make some big plays.
Other guys I really like: Dalton Risner (OT, Kansas State); Zach Allen (DE, Boston College); Anthony Nelson (DE/LB, Iowa); Deebo Samuel (WR, South Carolina); Lonnie Johnson (CB, Kentucky); Taylor Rapp (S, Washington); Sean Bunting (CB, Central Michigan).
(I’d also love a good sideline-to-sideline linebacker with speed, too, but there really aren’t many great ones left, or at least they really don’t stand to be a Day 2 pick.)
Tune in this evening to see if any of my wishes come true, as Day 2 of the 2019 NFL Draft continues Friday night at 7 p.m. Also, be sure to check in with The 300s all weekend long for all the best Patriots draft coverage.
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