Category: NFL

The Consistency in Which Tom Brady Makes the AFC Championship Game is Unparalleled in the Most Literal Sense of the Word

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To recap and present optically so that this can be easily digested:

Rate Category                                                                                 Percentage

-Tom Brady making the AFC Championship game                        76.5%
-NFL QB (Drew Brees) completing passes, per season                  74.4%
-Lebron James making free throws (because ESPN                       73%
is required to talk about Lebron James every story)
-Best putter in PGA between 5ft-10ft makes putt, 2018 season     68%

Let’s really let that sink in. To do that, you have to remember that every other category other than Brady’s is measured in single occurrences. A golfer putts once. The ball is only thrown once per attempt. Queen James only shoots once, and probably draws a foul from the foul line because an opposing player looked at him too aggressively.

Now think that in Brady’s category, he had to win 17 OR 18 professional football games to to work his way to a 76.5% percentage rate. Floyd Mayweather is 50-0 currently right? He beat 50 different opponents (with the exception of a couple rematches) one time on one night without ever losing. Now imagine if he had to fight 17 or 18 guys on those one nights to earn that “1” win. THAT IS FUCKING PREPOSTEROUS.

Now dig deeper and think about the times we layed eggs against the Colts and the Ravens and how this number could very well be even higher. For us, Pats Nation, that are numb to Tom Brady’s greatness and consistency; who have long since lost gratitude for the blessing of having him Quarterback our team for so long, this data puts things back in perspective. Thomas Edward Patrick Brady brings us within a hair of a championship at a more regular clip than a safe and sound golfer shielded from so much as a PEEP OF CROWD NOISE is able to tap a ball into a hole from 5ft-10ft. Brady does what he does with 300lb men trying to murder him and threats to his family and genitals being rained down upon him from the crowd.

So next time someone who has not seen a clenched fist, a field, a court, a sheet of ice, or in Max Kellerman’s case, the outside of a pilates studio, since they were 10 tried to come at the GOAT, Just remind, say, Max Kellerman that Tom Brady “dinks and dunks” his way to the AFC Championship game at a better clip than he gets shutdown by FS1 hair stylists.

LONG MAY HE REIGN.

-Joey B.

Is Yesterday’s Patriots Win a Dead Cat Bounce?

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The Dolphins beating the Patriots with a Miami Miracle in Week 14 was a dead cat bounce. The Steelers beating the Patriots 17-10 in Week 15 was a dead cat bounce. The Vikings beating the Lions in Detroit in Week 16 was a dead cat bounce. That was not what we witnessed in Foxboro yesterday afternoon.

Of all that was said, written and Tweeted about the Patriots in the last 24 hours, this might be the most ridiculous.

What we witnessed in Foxboro yesterday was the systematic dismantling of a very good football team. The Patriots absolutely manhandled the Chargers. Tom Brady completed 34 of 44 pass attempts for 343 yards. Sony Michel rushed the ball 24 times for 129 yards and three touchdowns. Julian Edelman looked the best he’s looked all season and caught nine balls for 151 yards. James White caught 15 balls for 97 yards.

The Patriots defense held Philip Rivers to 25 of 51 on pass attempts. He did throw for 331 yards and three touchdowns, but much of that damage was done late in the fourth quarter when the game was already out of reach.

This is not to say that the Patriots will beat Kansas City on Sunday. It will be a very tough game on the road against a team that has already demonstrated that it can handle playoff pressure in the elements. But don’t tell me that the Chiefs are going to run the Patriots out of the building. That’s not going to happen. This will not be a repeat of September 29, 2014.

The Patriots may be underdogs on Sunday, but they’ve got a chip and a chair. Time and again, they’ve shown us that’s all they need.

 

REAL TALK: Gronk is Now Basically an Offensive Lineman, and That’s OK

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Once one of the most dominant pass-catchers the game has ever seen, it appears as though Rob Gronkowski is quickly nearing the end of the line.

Not only has this been apparent from just the eyeball test alone, but rumors that he is once again considering retirement resurfaced yesterday as well – even though Gronk tried to downplay everything after the team’s victory over L.A.

Even the numbers don’t lie, though; since his misleading eight-catch, 107-yard performance against Miami in Week 14, here’s how it’s gone for Gronk ever since:

  • Week 15 (at Pittsburgh): 100% snaps played; 5 targets; 2 catches; 21 yards
  • Week 16 (vs. Buffalo): 79% snaps played; 1 target; 0 catches; 0 yards
  • Week 17 (vs. New York Jets): 81% of snaps played; 2 targets; 2 catches; 24 yards
  • AFC Divisional Round (vs. Los Angeles Chargers): 93% snaps played; 1 target; 1 catch; 25 yards

OH, and he’s also scored a total of zero touchdowns since the game down in Vice City as well.

There’s much more to take away from those numbers, though, besides simply saying that “Gronk looks cooked.” As a consistent, big-play, receiving target? Yeah, maybe he is cooked in that regard. But Gronk’s still played over three-quarters of the snaps – or more – for the past month, and Bill obviously isn’t going to keep him in there if he’s not providing something for the offense.

And that “something” that he provides has been excellent blocking up front. He’s basically been acting as a sixth offensive lineman for much of his time on the field lately, and it’s working.

This is not to say Gronk hasn’t been used as a blocker before; he’s actually been one of the game’s premier blockers at the tight end position throughout his whole career. However, the rate at which he’s been used as a blocker as opposed to a receiver has increased significantly. In 13 games last year, Gronk ran a passing route on 90.3 percent of his snaps, receiving 105 total targets; in 13 games this year, he’s been asked to go out for a pass on just 77.8 percent of his plays and has seen just 72 targets.

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This guy has been getting it done on the line for years.

The numbers. don’t. lie.

It should also be noted that the Pats’ rushing offense, which finished 10th in the league last season, jumped all the way up to fifth in 2018. Some may try to point out that we didn’t have Sony Michel last year, but we did have a guy named Dion Lewis, who averaged a pretty damn solid 5.0 yards per carry in 2017. So, no, it’s not all because of Sony Michel. (Yes, new addition Trent Brown and the rest of the O-line has played exceptionally well this year, too, so it’s not all Gronk. But still.)

Even Brady himself couldn’t stop from gushing about the big fella after yesterday’s game (h/t 247 Sports):

“Yeah, he’s a great blocker,” quarterback Tom Brady said after the win. “I think that’s something that goes maybe a little under the radar with his skill set, but he’s one of the most dominant blocking tight ends in the league. Again, he’s a threat when he catches it. Just did such a great job there to start the third quarter. He’s a threat any time he’s out there.”

And, as I pointed out in yesterday’s postgame piece, his epic block on Sony Michel’s 40-yard second-quarter run was the whole reason that play was even possible:

It might be hard to get a great view of No. 87’s stone-walling at first, but watch the bottom center-to-left corner of the screen, and you’ll eventually see the Chargers’ Kyle Emmanuel (No. 51) looking like an overpowered otter trying to swim upstream in the rapids. He had NO CHANCE of touching Sony on that play, and it was all because of Gronk.

He then did it again, to the same poor soul, on Rex Burkhead’s touchdown run just three plays later:

Of course, the Patriots are better with a healthy Gronk as the All-Pro tight end he used to be, but they certainly aren’t as desperate as some make it out to be without him. The team has averaged over 407 yards of offense (!) over the past four contests; the sky ain’t falling, folks. Relax.

In a season during which it’s been easy to hop all over Gronk for his “poor” play, I had to give the man the shine he deserves when doing the little things we don’t always catch during the flurry of action on the field.

You’re still a huge part of this team, Gronk. And if the team is going to be hoisting up that sixth banner next season, it certainly won’t happen without you on the field.

 

Patriots Chargers “We’re Going to the AFC Championship!!!” Postgame Reaction and Quick Hits

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Like clockwork, the Pats are heading back to the AFC Championship – for the EIGHTH. STRAIGHT. YEAR. (It’s also the THIRTEENTH time that Tom Brady is playing in the penultimate game of the season; that’s six more than the guy with the second-most championship game appearances all-time, Joe Montana, who has seven.)

So maybe I was entirely wrong about the whole “this is gonna be a close one” thing. But if you thought the Pats were going to hang over 40 points today, or beat the Chargers by almost two scores, you’re either a psychic or just outright lying.

Besides scoring some garbage-time second-half points, the Chargers were absolutely dominated in this one from start to finish, on both sides of the ball. They couldn’t stop the Patriots from doing anything they wanted to on offense, and the Pats D was in Philip Rivers’s face ALL DAY, sacking him twice and pressuring him on what seemed like almost every dropback.

And once Rivers gets flustered, it’s usually all downhill from there. While the guy is tough as nails and has put up some pretty impressive numbers in his career, he can easily fly off the handle. (Seriously, though, I’m surprised he didn’t actually take flight with how much he was flapping his arms around on Sunday.)

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This man has always been a bit of a hot-head.

The fact that the Pats also won the time of possession battle by over sixteen minutes (!) also demonstrates just how much they controlled the whole game. (That means they literally held the ball on offense for more than an entire quarter more than Los Angeles did.) They were able to do so behind an excellent performance from Sony Michel on the ground (129 yards, 3 TDs) – if you may recall, I said earlier this week that Michel would be this game’s X-factor – along with the tried-and-true short-passing offense, which was highlighted by a 15-catch effort from James White.

Also, Julian Edelman was phenomenal. His nine catches and 151 yards helped the Pats move the ball even further down the field, and he is now second all-time in postseason catches, only behind the legendary Jerry Rice.

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Old Faithful showed up to play again on Sunday.

Phillip Dorsett and Chris Hogan contributed as well, with seven combined grabs, but this game was about four guys: Brady, Edelman, White, and Michel. Period.

Stephon Gilmore and Jason McCourty held it down in pass coverage. Trey Flowers, Adam Butler, and Adrian Clayborn all dominated up front as well, not only constantly getting in Rivers’s face but also by holding the Chargers’ running game to just 19 measly yards. (Yes, much of this had to do with game script, as L.A. only ran the ball a total of 10 times. But still, they were able to stonewall Melvin Gordon, who averaged a pathetic 1.7 yards per tote on nine attempts.)

Unlike in years past, however, the Pats are not going to be playing the AFC Championship at home. Instead, they’ll be heading out to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs. That game will kick off at 6:40 p.m. next Sunday night. And that one will not be as easy. You can take that to the bank.

But, before we turn our attention to next weekend’s showdown at Arrowhead, here’s a few more quick notes from today’s victory:

  • People will be quick to point out that Rob Gronkowski was pretty much non-existent in this one. He wasn’t even targeted until late in the second quarter, and he finished with just one catch. BUT that run he had after that one catch resulted in 25 yards and a few steamrolled Chargers defenders. Even more importantly, he was still a vital part of the offense due to his excellent blocking; he laid a huge block at the line of scrimmage on Michel’s big 40-yard run in the second quarter. So, while he may not be as much of a threat in the passing game anymore, the man is still an absolute beast in short spurts.
Image result for rob gronkowski

You may not be what you once were, but I know how important you still are to us, big guy.

  • Speaking of blocking, hats off all around to the offensive line. As I pointed out in my preview on Friday, this was a potentially life-changing game for impending free agent Trent Brown, who was tasked with taking on Melvin Ingram for much of the game. You know, the Melvin Ingram who is supposed to be one of the league’s top pass-rushers and the man who looked like Lawrence Taylor last week against Baltimore? Or how about Joey Bosa, who’s supposed to be the Chargers’ superstar up front but finished with one tackle and literally NOTHING else on the day? I honestly cannot believe how well the Pats were able to COMPLETELY scheme those two out of the game on Sunday. But they sure did. Boy, did they ever.
  • After being touted as one of the Pats’ biggest offseason acquisitions, Adrian Clayborn has been a major disappointment all season, finishing the year with just 2.5 sacks and 11 total tackles. He sure showed up to play today, though, with three QB hurries and a sack. Especially in a game where the team was without Deatrich Wise, who is dealing with an ankle issue, Clayborn stepped up big time.
  • For as much as Rivers made it look like the refs weren’t calling anything all day, the Pats were actually called for an alarming nine penalties, resulting in 75 yards. As has been pointed out before, this has been a really bad habit that the team has gotten itself into lately, and it’s just really surprising from a Bill-Belichick-coached team. It didn’t end up hurting them too much this afternoon, but they can’t do that again next week in Kansas City.

Feel good about this one, Pats Nation, but do not let this taint your view of what lies ahead. The Chiefs killed a red-hot Colts team on Saturday, and it is not going to be easy next Sunday night. (No, but I really mean it this time.)

Be sure to stay tuned to The 300s all week for all the coverage you need leading up to the big game!

Patriots Chargers Halftime Beatdown Report

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First half of the Patriots Chargers game in one gif:

It took less than 30 minutes for the Patriots to completely break the will of the Chargers and it is glorious. The boys all had the Pats winning, but everyone had the game within a touchdown.

The week off has done the Patriots good as they came out of the gates flying. I was a little concerned the Pats may be overthinking it after they opted to receive rather than defer like they normally do. But, they came out with a 14 play drive that took up more than 7 minutes and punched it in with Sony Michel to get the early lead.

After Stephon Gilmore got his lunch money stolen by Keenan Allen on the following drive to tie the game 7-7, the Pats settled down. Then they started putting the screws to the Chargers.

Philip Rivers has been non stop bitching to the refs living up to his cry baby reputation that I honestly had almost forgotten about.

The Chargers put themselves in a hole that would take a legendary comeback to dig themselves out after FUMBLING a punt, allowing the Pats to score yet again.

Game, blouses.

NFL Divisional Round Picks

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Many football fans will tell you that AFC/NFC Championship weekend is the best football weekend of the year, but the Divisional Round weekend is nothing to sneeze at. The best eight teams remain and there are four great games on the slate this weekend. And boy do I love professional football games on Saturday afternoons. The only way this weekend could be any better is if I were in Rhode Island. [I could’ve paid my rent betting against the Irish two weeks ago.]

With that said, here are The 300s staff picks for this weekend.

Papa Giorgio: I bet money line, so my picks are straight up.

Colts +165 The Chiefs haven’t won a home playoff game since January 8th, 1994. Enough said.
Cowboys +240 No LA team has home field advantage. Maybe the Raiders if they didn’t blow that whole scenario.
Pats -180 Never bet against the Pats, ever. A trick I learned over the years being the only anti-Pats staffer of The 300s is you bet the Pats. This way, if they win, you make money and if they lose, well, at least they’re out.
Eagles +270 Nick Foles the playoff legend.

Joey Ballgame: We have two action packed games per night over the course of the next 48 hours.

For the first time in a long time the AFC is an absolute crap shoot. Since 2001, save a year here or there, the AFC title game has been played by that year’s contender against the Patriots. This year it’s an honest to God four-team race. Possibly the most intriguing team out of the four is the Colts, who started out sluggish and now just seem to forget how to lose.

In the NFC, it for me really comes to the Saints and Philly. I think New Orleans has enough on both sides of the ball to negate the late cancellation of  Nick Foles’ vacation two years in a row.

Mattes:

Indy +4.5 / Over 54
Dallas +7 / Over 49
LA Chargers +4 / Under 48
New Orleans -8 / Under 52

Red:

Indy vs KC Its going to be a cold night with the possibility of more snow coming down so who does that benefit more? I know the Colts have developed a strong running game behind Marlon Mack over the latter part of the year, but I just don’t have a lot of faith in a dome team going out and winning in a cold, sloppy Kansas City. The Chiefs have been a high powered passing game in particular, which is the kind of offense that doesn’t typically do well in poor weather. However KC has been more of a big play offense rather than a timing based offense and are the No. 1 seed coming off a bye so I have to go with the Chiefs winning and covering the 5 point spread on Saturday.

DAL vs LAR The Rams are the No. 2 seed in the NFC and got off to a blazing 8-0 start before finishing 13-3, including 2 losses in December. The 3 losses they had this year? Philadelphia, Chicago, and New Orleans; all playoff teams. I think we see a high scoring game, but the Cowboys will lean on Ezekiel Elliot (1,434 rushing yards and another 567 receiving yards on the season) to take advantage of the Rams’ porous run defense, which allowed 5.1 yards per carry during the regular season. The Cowboys will kick the trend of playoff flameouts over the past 20 years and give us the biggest upset of the NFL playoffs thus far.

NE vs LAC We discussed this at length on The 300s Podcast the other day, but I have the Patriots winning by a FG and continuing the trend of Philip Rivers unable to top Tom Brady. Patriots won’t cover, but they’ll advance to their EIGHTH straight AFC Championship game. 

PHI vs NO The Saints have been one of the consistently best teams in the NFL this year and as impressive as the defending champs have been with their backup QB, I think this is where the legend of Nick Foles finally dies. Philadelphia won’t be able to keep up with a well rested Saints team playing at home in the dome. (-8) is a big spread though so I have the Eagles covering with the Saints winning by a TD.

Big Z:

Indy +4.5 / Over 54 This Indy team looks like it’s a team on a run with a healthy Andrew Luck. KC is a good team but with a young QB they still might be a year or two away.

Dallas +7 / Under 49 I like the ‘boys and Zeke in a grind-it-out win.

LA Chargers +4 / Under 48 As I said on the podcast I think the Pats win but it’s a tight one. Call me crazy, but I have feeling Gostkowski misses bunny tomorrow too.

Philly +8 / Over 52 I have a hard time seeing a good team getting blow out at this time of year. Saints win but it’s not a laugher. Also, gotta like the over indoors.


BREAKING: Dolphins Reportedly Stealing Away Brian Flores

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Right in the middle of getting geared up for this weekend’s divisional round showdown, Pats Nation found out late this afternoon that they’re reportedly about to lose one of their own.

NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport first broke the news this afternoon:

It has since been corroborated by guys like Bert Breer, one of the industry’s leading talking heads:

First and foremost, congrats to Brian Flores, who is getting his first crack at running an NFL team at just 37 years old. Truly. This could be the opportunity of a lifetime. The trend in the league lately seems to be hiring fresh faces as opposed to falling on bad habits and recycling older, failed former coaches. With guys like Sean McVay (32) killing it out in Los Angeles, and others like Kliff Kingsbury (39, Arizona) and Matt LeFleur (39, Green Bay) being hired as first-timers just this week, I guess the news shouldn’t be so surprising.

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The young hotshot certainly started quite the trend.

Since first coming to the Pats as an assistant in the scouting department in 2004 – after a pretty solid career as a linebacker at Boston College – Flores has continued to ascend at a rapid pace, making his way onto the team’s coaching staff just four years later. He’s worn many different hats over the past decade, but he finally got his real shot at glory when he was given the responsibility of calling the defensive plays this year after Matt Patricia bounced to Detroit.

The fact that he’s only been in such a prominent position for such a short period of time makes the move even more interesting. But, in truth, he was even being looked at as a candidate by some teams last offseason, and his defense did allow the seventh-least amount of points per game in the league this year (20.7). And, again, teams around the league seem to finally be flouting the idea of “experience over everything,” and instead seem willing to roll the dice on newer guys with new ideas.

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Seems like teams are finally learning to leave guys like Ole Jeff in the dust.

To be honest, though, the news has got to be a bit deflating to guys around the locker room right now. Here you are zoning in on the first postseason obstacle facing you in just two days, and you learn that one of your coaches is likely off to sunnier skies next year – win or lose.

Now, it is important to note that nothing is official yet. Flores has yet to sign any contract or issue any public statement regarding the news – and likely won’t say anything at all until, at the very least, next week – but the writing seems to be on the wall. He’s heading to South Beach.

I want to be clear that I am not criticizing him for taking the role, if he so chooses, and I really am happy for him. The timing is just a bit of a bummer – but, as they say, that’s showbiz, baby!

I’m sure, though, as a Belichick disciple, he knows how to ignore the noise and still get the boys ready for the Chargers on Sunday. We’ll be just fine. I’ll stop raining on the parade.

Congrats to Brian Flores. I’m just sorry that I have to hate you now.

Patriots Chargers Playoff Preview and Things to Watch For

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The 300s Dream Team already hit you with a Pats/Chargers preview podcast yesterday, but ya boy Mattes is here with a little bit of a deeper dive into what to expect on Sunday.

It seems like Pats Nation is banking on the fact that this game is in Foxborough, a place where the Pats are undefeated in their last nine playoff contests, winning each of those games by an average of over two touchdowns (15.8 points to be exact). In fact, it’s been over half a decade since they’ve lost at Gillette in January, as the team hasn’t been defeated in a playoff matchup at home since 2012 against Baltimore.

There’s also the fact that Philip Rivers has beaten the Patriots just once in his career. The 37-year-old Chargers signal-caller also owns an overall record of 5-5 in postseason play, with an 11-to-9 TD-to-INT ratio. So, he’s pretty much been just as good as he has been bad when playing after the regular season ends.

But anyone who’s taking this matchup lightly is foolish. I’m not saying the Chargers will win, but I am saying they probably have the best chance of doing so of any home playoff opponent that Brady’s ever faced in his career (or at least over the past few postseasons). The Chargers feature the league’s 11th-ranked offense and the ninth-ranked defense, possessing the ability to hurt you in many different ways. I’ve said it a few times already that this might be the most talented roster, pound for pound, in the AFC right now – yes, even more talented than Kansas City.

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Seriously, these guys are GOOD.

On offense, it all starts with Rivers, who truly may be the best quarterback to never win a Super Bowl. While a great argument can be made that such an honor should instead go to Dan Marino, Rivers is top-eight all-time in both passing yards and touchdowns, and he will likely surpass Marino in both categories as long as he plays for at least another 2-3 years. He also chucked it for over 4,300 yards and 32 scores this season. His postseason track record may be pretty average, but his career clock is ticking, and he could come out guns blazing on Sunday.

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His No. 1 receiver, Keenan Allen, finished the year with 97 catches and almost 1,200 yards. He’ll prove to be a tough matchup, even for an All-Pro like Stephon Gilmore. (Although Allen might actually see more coverage from Jason McCourty due to the fact he plays over 50 percent of the time in the slot.) Guys like Mike Williams (10 TDs in 2018) and Tyrell Williams are a nice pairing behind him, and the Chargers are bringing back tight end Hunter Henry this week as well. Though Henry hasn’t played since last December due to an ACL tear, he was a second-round pick in 2016 and did have 12 touchdowns in his first 29 career games; he gives Rivers just one more weapon in the arsenal for Sunday, especially down in the red zone.

The team’s stable of backs may be even more impressive. Melvin Gordon was a top-three running back over the first half of this season, before being slowed by injuries toward the end of the year. As a result, the Chargers were forced to work with backups like Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson much more than expected. But they never skipped a beat, as all three backs have averaged over 4.1 yards per carry this season, with each also flashing as a receiver, posting over nine yards per catch. (Actually, both Gordon and Ekeler averaged over 5.0 yards per carry this year.) All three will be used against the Pats on Sunday, making it impossible for Bill to zero in on eliminating the opponent’s top weapon, like he usually does.

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Everyone wants to focus on Melvin Gordon, and rightfully so. But Ekeler (above) can’t be slept on either.

On defense, L.A. is completely stacked, with two First-Team All-Pros in the secondary and two ferocious pass-rushers up front. While they may be a bit weak at linebacker, the Chargers are absolutely loaded in both the front and back ends of the D, finishing ninth against both the pass AND the run in 2018. They’re also particularly good against tight ends and the short passing game – literally the Patriots offense in a nutshell.

So how do the Pats match up with L.A.? What can our boys do to counteract the Chargers’ fire power? Here’s my rundown of what to watch for on Sunday.

(All About the Secondaries): Both the Chargers and the Pats feature one of the league’s top defensive secondaries, with three combined First-Team All-Pro players across both rosters. (Cornerback Stephon Gilmore for the Patriots; safety Derwin James and cornerback Desmond King for the Chargers. AND let’s not forget about Casey Hayward, who was a Second-Team All-Pro at corner for the Chargers last year. I told you, these guys are loaaadeddd.) Even outside of them, both teams have plenty of other Pro-Bowl-worthy talent at both the safety and cornerback positions as well. In fact, the Chargers are so loaded back there that they used at least seven d-backs on 58-of-59 defensive plays last week against the Ravens. And they did so with tremendous success, holding Lamar Jackson to less than 30 yards passing through the first three quarters. But again, the Pats have also been a stalwart against the pass; since the bye week, the Pats have allowed a paltry 206.6 yards through the air in those six games. They’ve also held guys like Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger to 250 passing yards or less when facing off against them this year, ending any argument that “we just haven’t played good quarterbacks lately.” Both teams will absolutely live and die by their secondaries on Sunday.

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The rookie, James, has been sensational this season.

(Sony Could Be the X-Factor): As I said above, according to the numbers, the Chargers have been equally as good against the run as they have against the pass this year. But there’s no doubt that, much like the Pats, they are severely lacking over the middle of the defense. Especially after their second-leading tackler, Jatavis Brown, was placed on I.R. this week, Sony Michel could do some damage on Sunday if he reaches the second level. Of course, James, the Chargers’ leading tackler, will be back there waiting as well, along with S/CB/LB hybrid Adrian Phillips, who had the third-most takedowns on the team. Michel will also need to get past the Chargers’ fearsome front four, which is no easy task either. But if the Pats can rely on the rookie to help grind out the clock, keeping the ball out of Rivers’s and his talented supporting cast’s hands as much as possible, the team could be OK on Sunday.

(Big Game for Brown and the Boys Up Front): According to NFL Next Gen Stats, the Patriots had the third-best pass-block win rate of all of this year’s playoff squads. We’ve mentioned before that the O-line has been a major strength for the team this year, with pretty much everyone playing well at all five spots. The Chargers also totaled just 38 sacks on the year as a team, good for just 19th in the league. But you cannot forget about Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, who have combined for 54 sacks over the past three seasons – and let’s not forget that Bosa missed half of this year due to injury. Ingram also had seven tackles and two sacks just last week, giving him plenty of momentum heading into this weekend. With Trent Brown set to become a free agent at the end of the season, he could literally make or break his next contract depending on well he protects Brady’s backside in this one.

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We’re gonna need you this week, big fella.

Just a few more quick notes:

  • As mentioned above, the Chargers defense has absolutely dominated tight ends this season, finishing No. 1 overall in DVOA against the position. Brady should be able to spread the ball around well enough to combat L.A.’s strength against the short passing game overall, but don’t expect a big game from an already-ailing Rob Gronkowski on Sunday – like maybe at all.
  • After missing the season finale, Cordarrelle Patterson is back. Devin McCourty and Deatrich Wise are also expected to be OK after injury scares two weeks ago. Besides some lingering ailments throughout the roster, the Pats are expected to play with a full squad on Sunday.
  • In the playoffs, experience matters, and Sunday will mark Bill Belichick‘s 40th career playoff game as a coach; Anthony Lynn is heading into his second. It will mark the biggest discrepancy in playoff games (40-2) and playoff wins (28-1) in NFL history, according to Elias (h/t ESPN Boston).

Prediction

This is going to be a battle, and that 15.8-point average margin of victory in recent home playoff games is going to go down a bit. Not only that, but with both defenses being so good, this should be a lower-scoring game. (Don’t take the over!!!) With the Chargers being much more loaded on offense, though, they’ll be up by a score at halftime, before the Pats tighten up in the second half. Then, it’ll be a fight to the finish line, with the Pats punching in a late score, barely giving them the edge. In what will be the Pats’ most difficult divisional round test in years, they’ll scratch and claw their way to a 21-20 victory.

The Indianapolis Colts Have a 1-0 Banner Hanging and I Can’t Stop Laughing

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This is the saddest banner I’ve ever seen since the last time the Colts hung a depressing loser flag in the form of AFC Finalist banners.

And just a reminder that yes these are real and the Colts have in fact been hanging these for a long time.

But hey when it’s the first time you’ve made the playoffs since the 2014 season when you got SMOKED by the Patriots, then you have to take what you can get. And right now a 1-0 in the playoffs banner is the best it gets in Indianapolis.

It will never get old dumping on the Colts because of all the fun we had dismantling them in the playoffs (except for the 2006 meltdown), the pumped in crowd noise, the owner’s fondness for driving around with drugs and cash, and of course being the rats behind Deflategate. Oh and don’t forget, Colt and Griff!

I try not to be too much of an arrogant Patriots fan, but this is just sad. Have some self respect guys. I know Lucas Oil Stadium is no Gillette, which literally had to be redesigned after the Patriots Super Bowl win over the Falcons because they had TOO many banners.

Before:

After:

It’s good to be a Patriots fan, but I would think a normal fan would at least settle for not hanging participation trophies to start.

Kyler Murray Declares for the NFL Draft

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ProFootballTalk – The Oakland Athletics expect Oklahoma quarterback Kyler Murray to declare for the NFL Draft this weekend….The report cites a source saying Murray is leaning toward playing football.

You know how the old saying goes, “the NFL Draft gets real shaken up when the Heisman Trophy winner suddenly decides to declare.” And that is exactly what is apparently the case folks. Rather than go play pro baseball for the Oakland A’s, who drafted him 8th overall, Kyler Murray intends to to enter the NFL Draft and possibly play pro football instead. The general public has been begging him to do this, as you know, he’s a Heisman winner, so while this is surprising it’s a logical choice.

What might be a little surprising is that Murray seems to be seen by many teams as a 1st round prospect. While other smaller, mobile QBs such as Baker Mayfield were denounced until the day of the draft because of their stature, Murray seems to have a clear path to Round 1. I mean, in this weak QB class he may now be the top talent to some teams. It could be that due to the success of Mayfield and a couple others, maybe pure stature just isn’t being looked at as much as long as the signal caller can make all the throws. Makes sense to me. Unless you have a 6’7″ center. Then no bueno.

There is also the possibility that teams don’t just see Murray as a QB. Maybe some team will look at the modern NBA and realize not all positions and players have to be concrete and static. A smart team may look at Murray and see a guy they can give a package of plays to at QB, which defenses will have to respect due to his arm and ability, and otherwise use at RB and WR. Think of any of the duel threat RBs in the league now, but then give them an arm and a lifetime of playing QB. Scary right?

This also puts a lot of question marks over the heads of incumbent starters on teams that have a new Head Coach. For instance, I know Kliff Kingsbury sang Josh Rosen’s praises, but would it be out of the realm of possibility that he has a thing for Murray and his ability to both run and pass? I for one can’t say “no” for sure.

Editor’s note: Some are speculating that Kingsbury could even trade Rosen and take Kyler No. 1 overall.

The next hurdle for Murray is whether or not the A’s allow him to go to the combine, which is scheduled for when he should in camp with the team. This would also require the approval of the MLB, which just LOVES aberrations from the norm.

Let the drama begin.

-Joey B.