The Patriots are back in the AFC Championship game for the EIGHTH straight year and The 300s Podcast Dream Team is back in the studio to break it all down.
-Patriots Road Woes
-Will Weather Be a Real Factor?
-Chiefs vs Pats rematch
-Belichick vs a 23-year-old QB
-Andy Reid vs the Clock
-Official Picks
Like clockwork, the Pats are heading back to the AFC Championship – for the EIGHTH. STRAIGHT. YEAR. (It’s also the THIRTEENTH time that Tom Brady is playing in the penultimate game of the season; that’s six more than the guy with the second-most championship game appearances all-time, Joe Montana, who has seven.)
So maybe I was entirely wrong about the whole “this is gonna be a close one” thing. But if you thought the Pats were going to hang over 40 points today, or beat the Chargers by almost two scores, you’re either a psychic or just outright lying.
Besides scoring some garbage-time second-half points, the Chargers were absolutely dominated in this one from start to finish, on both sides of the ball. They couldn’t stop the Patriots from doing anything they wanted to on offense, and the Pats D was in Philip Rivers’s face ALL DAY, sacking him twice and pressuring him on what seemed like almost every dropback.
And once Rivers gets flustered, it’s usually all downhill from there. While the guy is tough as nails and has put up some pretty impressive numbers in his career, he can easily fly off the handle. (Seriously, though, I’m surprised he didn’t actually take flight with how much he was flapping his arms around on Sunday.)
This man has always been a bit of a hot-head.
The fact that the Pats also won the time of possession battle by over sixteen minutes (!) also demonstrates just how much they controlled the whole game. (That means they literally held the ball on offense for more than an entire quarter more than Los Angeles did.) They were able to do so behind an excellent performance from Sony Michel on the ground (129 yards, 3 TDs) – if you may recall, I said earlier this week that Michel would be this game’s X-factor – along with the tried-and-true short-passing offense, which was highlighted by a 15-catch effort from James White.
Also, Julian Edelman was phenomenal. His nine catches and 151 yards helped the Pats move the ball even further down the field, and he is now second all-time in postseason catches, only behind the legendary Jerry Rice.
Old Faithful showed up to play again on Sunday.
Phillip Dorsett and Chris Hogan contributed as well, with seven combined grabs, but this game was about four guys: Brady, Edelman, White, and Michel. Period.
Stephon Gilmore and Jason McCourty held it down in pass coverage. Trey Flowers, Adam Butler, and Adrian Clayborn all dominated up front as well, not only constantly getting in Rivers’s face but also by holding the Chargers’ running game to just 19 measly yards. (Yes, much of this had to do with game script, as L.A. only ran the ball a total of 10 times. But still, they were able to stonewall Melvin Gordon, who averaged a pathetic 1.7 yards per tote on nine attempts.)
Unlike in years past, however, the Pats are not going to be playing the AFC Championship at home. Instead, they’ll be heading out to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs. That game will kick off at 6:40 p.m. next Sunday night. And that one will not be as easy. You can take that to the bank.
But, before we turn our attention to next weekend’s showdown at Arrowhead, here’s a few more quick notes from today’s victory:
You may not be what you once were, but I know how important you still are to us, big guy.
Feel good about this one, Pats Nation, but do not let this taint your view of what lies ahead. The Chiefs killed a red-hot Colts team on Saturday, and it is not going to be easy next Sunday night. (No, but I really mean it this time.)
Be sure to stay tuned to The 300s all week for all the coverage you need leading up to the big game!
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The 300s Dream Team already hit you with a Pats/Chargers preview podcast yesterday, but ya boy Mattes is here with a little bit of a deeper dive into what to expect on Sunday.
It seems like Pats Nation is banking on the fact that this game is in Foxborough, a place where the Pats are undefeated in their last nine playoff contests, winning each of those games by an average of over two touchdowns (15.8 points to be exact). In fact, it’s been over half a decade since they’ve lost at Gillette in January, as the team hasn’t been defeated in a playoff matchup at home since 2012 against Baltimore.
There’s also the fact that Philip Rivers has beaten the Patriots just once in his career. The 37-year-old Chargers signal-caller also owns an overall record of 5-5 in postseason play, with an 11-to-9 TD-to-INT ratio. So, he’s pretty much been just as good as he has been bad when playing after the regular season ends.
But anyone who’s taking this matchup lightly is foolish. I’m not saying the Chargers will win, but I am saying they probably have the best chance of doing so of any home playoff opponent that Brady’s ever faced in his career (or at least over the past few postseasons). The Chargers feature the league’s 11th-ranked offense and the ninth-ranked defense, possessing the ability to hurt you in many different ways. I’ve said it a few times already that this might be the most talented roster, pound for pound, in the AFC right now – yes, even more talented than Kansas City.
Seriously, these guys are GOOD.
On offense, it all starts with Rivers, who truly may be the best quarterback to never win a Super Bowl. While a great argument can be made that such an honor should instead go to Dan Marino, Rivers is top-eight all-time in both passing yards and touchdowns, and he will likely surpass Marino in both categories as long as he plays for at least another 2-3 years. He also chucked it for over 4,300 yards and 32 scores this season. His postseason track record may be pretty average, but his career clock is ticking, and he could come out guns blazing on Sunday.
His No. 1 receiver, Keenan Allen, finished the year with 97 catches and almost 1,200 yards. He’ll prove to be a tough matchup, even for an All-Pro like Stephon Gilmore. (Although Allen might actually see more coverage from Jason McCourty due to the fact he plays over 50 percent of the time in the slot.) Guys like Mike Williams (10 TDs in 2018) and Tyrell Williams are a nice pairing behind him, and the Chargers are bringing back tight end Hunter Henry this week as well. Though Henry hasn’t played since last December due to an ACL tear, he was a second-round pick in 2016 and did have 12 touchdowns in his first 29 career games; he gives Rivers just one more weapon in the arsenal for Sunday, especially down in the red zone.
The team’s stable of backs may be even more impressive. Melvin Gordon was a top-three running back over the first half of this season, before being slowed by injuries toward the end of the year. As a result, the Chargers were forced to work with backups like Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson much more than expected. But they never skipped a beat, as all three backs have averaged over 4.1 yards per carry this season, with each also flashing as a receiver, posting over nine yards per catch. (Actually, both Gordon and Ekeler averaged over 5.0 yards per carry this year.) All three will be used against the Pats on Sunday, making it impossible for Bill to zero in on eliminating the opponent’s top weapon, like he usually does.
Everyone wants to focus on Melvin Gordon, and rightfully so. But Ekeler (above) can’t be slept on either.
On defense, L.A. is completely stacked, with two First-Team All-Pros in the secondary and two ferocious pass-rushers up front. While they may be a bit weak at linebacker, the Chargers are absolutely loaded in both the front and back ends of the D, finishing ninth against both the pass AND the run in 2018. They’re also particularly good against tight ends and the short passing game – literally the Patriots offense in a nutshell.
So how do the Pats match up with L.A.? What can our boys do to counteract the Chargers’ fire power? Here’s my rundown of what to watch for on Sunday.
(All About the Secondaries): Both the Chargers and the Pats feature one of the league’s top defensive secondaries, with three combined First-Team All-Pro players across both rosters. (Cornerback Stephon Gilmore for the Patriots; safety Derwin James and cornerback Desmond King for the Chargers. AND let’s not forget about Casey Hayward, who was a Second-Team All-Pro at corner for the Chargers last year. I told you, these guys are loaaadeddd.) Even outside of them, both teams have plenty of other Pro-Bowl-worthy talent at both the safety and cornerback positions as well. In fact, the Chargers are so loaded back there that they used at least seven d-backs on 58-of-59 defensive plays last week against the Ravens. And they did so with tremendous success, holding Lamar Jackson to less than 30 yards passing through the first three quarters. But again, the Pats have also been a stalwart against the pass; since the bye week, the Pats have allowed a paltry 206.6 yards through the air in those six games. They’ve also held guys like Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger to 250 passing yards or less when facing off against them this year, ending any argument that “we just haven’t played good quarterbacks lately.” Both teams will absolutely live and die by their secondaries on Sunday.
The rookie, James, has been sensational this season.
(Sony Could Be the X-Factor): As I said above, according to the numbers, the Chargers have been equally as good against the run as they have against the pass this year. But there’s no doubt that, much like the Pats, they are severely lacking over the middle of the defense. Especially after their second-leading tackler, Jatavis Brown, was placed on I.R. this week, Sony Michel could do some damage on Sunday if he reaches the second level. Of course, James, the Chargers’ leading tackler, will be back there waiting as well, along with S/CB/LB hybrid Adrian Phillips, who had the third-most takedowns on the team. Michel will also need to get past the Chargers’ fearsome front four, which is no easy task either. But if the Pats can rely on the rookie to help grind out the clock, keeping the ball out of Rivers’s and his talented supporting cast’s hands as much as possible, the team could be OK on Sunday.
(Big Game for Brown and the Boys Up Front): According to NFL Next Gen Stats, the Patriots had the third-best pass-block win rate of all of this year’s playoff squads. We’ve mentioned before that the O-line has been a major strength for the team this year, with pretty much everyone playing well at all five spots. The Chargers also totaled just 38 sacks on the year as a team, good for just 19th in the league. But you cannot forget about Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, who have combined for 54 sacks over the past three seasons – and let’s not forget that Bosa missed half of this year due to injury. Ingram also had seven tackles and two sacks just last week, giving him plenty of momentum heading into this weekend. With Trent Brown set to become a free agent at the end of the season, he could literally make or break his next contract depending on well he protects Brady’s backside in this one.
We’re gonna need you this week, big fella.
Just a few more quick notes:
Prediction
This is going to be a battle, and that 15.8-point average margin of victory in recent home playoff games is going to go down a bit. Not only that, but with both defenses being so good, this should be a lower-scoring game. (Don’t take the over!!!) With the Chargers being much more loaded on offense, though, they’ll be up by a score at halftime, before the Pats tighten up in the second half. Then, it’ll be a fight to the finish line, with the Pats punching in a late score, barely giving them the edge. In what will be the Pats’ most difficult divisional round test in years, they’ll scratch and claw their way to a 21-20 victory.
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The last game of the regular season has arrived. And, for the first time in a while, this one matters A LOT.
By this point, the Pats usually have a bye locked up, but depending on what happens on Sunday they could finish anywhere from the No. 1 to the No. 4 seed in the AFC this season. Therefore, they could either have: guaranteed home-field advantage throughout the playoffs; guaranteed home-field advantage for some of the playoffs; or only get to play at home just once (not to mention the fact that the last scenario would mean they would need to play a whole extra game as well).
(CBS Sports lays out all the playoff scenarios here for all you super nerds like me.)
But what it all comes down to for the Pats is this:
As long as they win, they are guaranteed to have at least one of the byes; if they lose, it’s going to be near impossible for that to happen.
Fortunately, we’re going up against a terrible New York Jets squad – who we already beat just a few weeks ago – and this time, it’s at home. Before we hop into the preview, though, here’s a look at where, when, and how to watch the game along with the latest lines:
The Jets (4-11) are really bad. I know I’ve called plenty of other teams bad throughout many of my previews this year, but I really mean it this time. The Jets have won just once since the middle of October and have given up an average of 29 points per game over that same period. They are also tied for the second-worst record in the league with Oakland and San Francisco.
Rather than continue to throw a bunch of random stats at you or talk about Jets players to watch out for (are there even any?), I’m going to do it a bit differently this time around and simply focus on a few key things I’ll be keeping an eye on from Brady and the boys on Sunday.
(Can the Offense Keep it Going?): A lot of people were shocked to see the Pats put up almost 400 yards of offense against Buffalo, the league’s No. 2 defense, last week. Much of this had to do with an insane 273-yard rushing output, as the passing offense mustered up a pathetic total of 117. Ironically, this was after two games in which the ground game struggled, failing to crack 100 yards in Weeks 15 and 16, while the passing offense averaged 308 yards. My point is there is just ZERO consistency in this offense right now besides Julian Edelman, and that’s tough to maintain heading into postseason play. Is Cordarrelle Patterson healthy and will he remain the X-factor like he was last week? Has Sony Michel rediscovered his early-season success, and is he now ready to shoulder the team throughout January? I have no idea, but it’d be nice to see some sort of sense of direction from Brady & Co. by the end of the weekend.
All right, kid, it’s time to earn that first-round money!
(How Injured is Brady?): Everyone knows by now that Brady and the team have not been very forthcoming regarding his injured knee. The team’s always been very secretive in that respect, but I feel like they’re really hiding something this time around. At times over the past few weeks, it has looked like Brady’s been operating purely off of sheer adrenaline and determination, but he’s no longer listed on the injury report and he insists he’s not hurt. Really, Tommy? Prove that to me this Sunday.
(Can the Secondary/Pass-Coverage Finish Strong?): Again, it’s really hard to pick out a “strength” for the Jets, but if it’s anywhere it’s probably in the passing game. Robby Anderson has averaged 104 receiving yards over the past three games, with a touchdown in each contest, as the young wide receiver is having a bit of a late-season resurgence. Chris Herndon has also sneakily been one of the game’s most consistent tight ends this season, and he put up a solid seven catches for 57 yards against the Pats when they played in November. (He also had six for 82 with a score last week against Green Bay.) Fortunately, rookie quarterback Sam Darnold will also be playing his first-ever game in Foxborough, and the Pats should handle whatever he throws at them. (Although Darnold has been excellent lately, with six touchdowns and one pick over his last three games.) Hey, I had to give the Jets something, right?
The Jets might actually have a nice, young piece in Herndon.
(Will the Boys Behave?): I touched upon this already in my postgame notes from Monday, but the Pats have been called for an average of over eight penalties a game throughout the past five contests. Yes, that number is significantly bumped by a crazy 14 penalties against the Steelers two weeks ago. But, even when removing that game entirely, the Pats have still been responsible for almost six flags a game. That’s not good at any point in the year, but that type of stuff will sink anyone – and quickly – during postseason play.
Prediction
The Pats will absolutely wallop the Jets. I have no doubt in my mind about it. With a bye on the line and playing against one of the dregs of the league, there’s just no way that we lose this one. And it won’t even be close. Kansas City will beat Oakland as well, and the Pats will head into the postseason as the No. 2 seed.
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Yesterday, Red already hit you with a bit of a recap and a few postgame thoughts of his own. Now, ya boy Mattes is here to follow it up with even more reaction for the folks.
First and foremost, it’s very important to note the following: Yes, the Pats did indeed lock up the AFC East for the 1,456th time in a row (OK not really, but I’m running out of room in my closet for all these hats and T-shirts); however, they DID NOT lock up the No. 2 seed. Not quiteeeee yet. So before making plans to finally clean out the garage on Wild Card Weekend, I’d wait to see what happens next weekend against the Jets.
I’m not trying to be the turd in the punch bowl here. And as long as the Pats beat the Jets next Sunday, then the team will unquestionably head into the postseason with a bye. However, not only can the Texans still get the No. 2 seed, even after today’s heartbreaking loss to Philly, but even Baltimore can make a leap up to the second spot. No, but seriously:
Ravens have a shot for first-round bye. This is the updated scenario: Baltimore beats Browns, Texans lose finale (vs. Jaguars), Patriots lose finale (vs. Jets) and the Colts-Titans game can’t end in a tie.
— Jamison Hensley (@jamisonhensley) December 24, 2018
For the record, I think we’ll pull it off…but we still gotta beat the Jets.
OK, now on to some reaction from this afternoon.
I won’t touch upon much of what Red already wrote here. But I will say that anyone who comes out of this one feeling “great” might need a bit of a reality check, as many of the same problems the team was facing heading into today were still painfully apparent (e.g. Brady’s knee; Gronk’s health/ability to move).
The big man was rumblin’ on Sunday afternoon.
Cordarrelle Patterson not taking questions in the locker room after the game, but says he’s “good.” Suffered a knee injury in the third quarter.
— Phil Perry (@PhilAPerry) December 23, 2018
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Please don’t let this dude walk this spring. Open the purse, Bill!
So, again, while I’m very happy with the win, I’m definitely not heading into January with the warm and fuzzies. This team still needs some serious help to get anywhere close to Atlanta in February. A win against the Jets next week and a first-round bye would be an excellent way to start though.
Be sure to check in at the end of the week for the preview of the regular-season finale!
After Sunday’s sound victory over Minnesota, many might be expecting the Patriots to roll over the Dolphins in Miami this week. But, any true Pats fan knows that Miami has been Brady’s own personal hell throughout his entire career.
Not only are the Pats 1-4 in their last five trips down to Vice City, but look at just how bad Brady has been down there throughout his entire career, as pointed out by Danny Heifetz of The Ringer:
Against the other 30 teams in the league, Brady is 85-32 on the road in the regular season. In Miami, he is 7-9, giving him more losses in Miami than anywhere except New England. Hell, Brady has nine losses in 16 Miami games and 19 losses in 132 home games. Brady has thrown 15 interceptions in Miami, which is more than he’s thrown in any season of his career. No matter how destitute the Dolphins are or how unbeatable the Pats seem, a trip to Miami is the most dangerous thing for the team outside of a visit from Bernard Karmell Pollard.
So, yeah, it hasn’t always been a breeze down in Miami for the Pats. But before we hop into the preview, here’s a quick look at where, when, and how to watch the game along with the latest lines:
Rather than base expectations purely off of what happened in the past, though, let’s take a look at who Miami has been this season.
First and foremost, they’re just not very good – on either side of the ball. They’re ranked 29th in terms of both total offense and defense. And while they are 6-6, much of that had to do with a fool’s gold 4-2 start, which has been followed up by a 2-4 run since the middle of October.
Yes, it is true that they were without Ryan Tannehill for five games, forcing them to turn to Brock Osweiler (*BARF*) until Tannehill returned two weeks ago against the Colts. But even still, Tannehill had 52.6 QB rating over his last two games before the injury, failing to surpass 185 yards passing in either contest – with one of those games coming against Cincinnati, who has had the absolute worst defense in the league this season BY FAR. (Seriously, the Bengals defense is laughably horrendous.)
To be fair, he has bounced back with two straight 100-plus-QB-rating games over the past two weeks, with a very solid 5-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio. Miami is also 1-1 over that time, with the victory coming in a very close contest against Buffalo last week.
Honestly, who ever really knows what to expect from this guy?
But even still this is probably the worst Miami team in quite some time, and now their bottom-of-the-barrel defense will be without stud corner, Xavien Howard, on Sunday. Howard, who is in his third year, leads the league in interceptions with seven and has quickly vaulted himself into the upper echelon at the position with his play in 2018. He’s yet to officially be ruled out, but ESPN’s Cameron Wolfe, who covers the Dolphins, doesn’t sound too optimistic:
Adam Gase wouldn’t discuss if Xavien Howard had surgery but he did say he’s in the building and watched practice today. He’s not on crutches but still week-to-week. Expect Dolphins to be without Howard for at least this week, if not longer.
— Cameron Wolfe (@CameronWolfe) December 6, 2018
If that’s the case, expect a nice game from Josh Gordon – and the rest of the Pats receiving corps, for that matter – as the Dolphins really don’t have much else at the position. Truthfully, this should be a great game for the Pats offense as a whole; Miami is also giving up 144.7 yards per game on the ground this year, due in part to the 180-plus rushing yards they’ve given up four of their last six contests. The Pats also carved up the Dolphins for 175 rushing yards when the teams met in Week 4, so expect Sony Michel – who had 112 of those yards – to FEAST once again this weekend. (Seriously, if you’ve got Sony on your fantasy team, fire him up!)
Expect another electric showing from the rook down in the Sunshine State.
The one noteworthy “strength” (and I use that term loosely) for the Dolphins might be their running game. It’s a two-pronged attack featuring the ageless future H.O.F. Frank Gore and a talented but inconsistent third-year man in Kenyan Drake. After an 883-yard breakout last year, most people expected Drake to completely take over this year, but the 35-year-old Gore is not going away, quietly averaging almost 12 carries a game at a 4.43 per-carry mark. Drake has had his moments this year and is unquestionably the team’s top pass-catching back, but even still neither one has been all that impressive this year, and the Pats should be able to keep them at bay.
Storylines
(Can Brady Defeat His Demons?): As evidenced above, Brady is not a fan of playing in Miami. However, as also previously mentioned, this may be the worst Dolphins team we’ve seen in years, and I just don’t see how Brady can once again lay an egg down there. With Gordon now in the fold, Brady & Co. should be able to exploit Miami’s weak secondary; if not, then it’s really just all in Brady’s head and there’s just nothing else to say.
Come on, Tommy. It’s time to change the narrative.
(Oh, Danny, Where Art Thou?): As I pointed out the other week, offseason acquisition Danny Shelton has been extremely disappointing this year. In fact, he’s been so ineffective that he wasn’t even active for last week’s game against Minnesota. Bill’s not afraid to quickly cut bait on bad investments, and hopefully it’s not the last we’ve seen of Shelton, who really does possess some solid talent. If he rides the pine again for the second straight week, however, it could signal the end of the 25-year-old’s career in New England.
(Will We See the Duke’s Arrival?): Even though he’s now been active for three weeks after being taken off I.R., rookie corner Duke Dawson has still yet to make his debut. It’s likely because of the fact the team’s current group of corners has been playing exceptionally well this year, and Dawson did miss a lot of valuable practice time while he was on the shelf. But still, the team needs to eventually see what they have in the young guy, on whom they spent a second-round pick in May.
Can’t wait to see what this kid’s got when he finally gets his chance.
Prediction
I honestly expect the Pats to roll in this one, regardless of what past history tells us. The team’s offense should be able to destroy Miami with ease, and while Tannehill could have a surprisingly good game, he just doesn’t have enough around him to overtake what the Pats are bringing to the table. This one’s over quickly, and the Pats take it 38-17.
Welcome back. Another week and another 3 days of the highest of highs and lowest of lows. We laughed, we cried, we screamed at the tv/computer screen, terrifying dogs and neighbors alike. Fantasy amiright?!
The two most important things to note about this past week in the NF of L was that A.) Tom Brady has more career rushing yards than Sony Michel. Which is just embarrassing; and B.) James Develin is becoming a legitimate red zone threat which, laugh at it or not, frees up other skill position players for opportunities. In the words of Aubrey, “YEEEaaa, be very afraid.”
Red
I got NINETEEN points from my kicker this past week to just barely squeak out a win. Alas, I missed the playoffs by one game, primarily because Matt Stafford hosed me last week and multiple times throughout the season. But thats what happens when you click the wrong thing and accidentally draft an asshole in the 8th round. They say a pictures worth a thousand words and Yahoo helped me summarize my season in just one image.
Papa G
Blogger’s Note: That was seriously all Papa G submitted. Please keep him in your thoughts.
Big Z
The Z-Men won 121-98 in Week 13, led once again by Christian McCaffrey who put up a cool 25 points. James Conner iced the match Sunday night with two early touchdowns. The win is my squad’s 6th in 7 weeks, enough to improve to 9-4 on the season and secure a first round bye in the fantasy playoffs.
The bye week is huge because it guarantees me a “bowl game” and a crack at at least getting my money back. Let’s just hope I don’t run up two bills in my bye week and run out of gas down the stretch for a second-straight season.
Joey B
I lost again and am last in both pure record and points for for the year. I don’t know where it all went so, so wrong. Fuck you Matthew Stafford. Fuck you Jordan Howard. Fuck every WR not named Michael Thomas.
Mattes
So I failed to make the playoffs in both leagues, and it was a struggle to get out of bed this morning. For a guy who invests way more time than the average person following fantasy football and searching the depths of the Internet for any and all things related to it – no, seriously, it might be actually be a problem – this one really hurts. It’s not like my teams were all that bad either; I was top-three in points against in both leagues, and I lost two games by less than a point while freakin’ TYING another. I know I sound like a dope making excuses right now, but I picked up guys like Aaron Jones, D.J. Moore, Josh Adams, and Tarik Cohen this year, playing the wire like a fiddle all year long. But in fantasy as well as life, it’s all about who you’re matched up against, and it just wasn’t my year. I can still win the loser’s bracket in each league, starting with a first-round matchup against Red this week in one of them. I guess that’s something.
With just five weeks left in the NFL season, the Pats (8-3) currently sit as the AFC’s No. 2 seed, just behind the Chiefs (9-2) and barely ahead of the Steelers (7-3-1) and Texans (8-3), the last of which the Pats beat in Week 1 and therefore hold the tiebreaker.
Though it’s tough to call any win over the Jets “impressive,” Brady & the boys – actually, Sony Michel stole the show – were firing on all cylinders on Sunday. Their 498 total yards of offense were the team’s second-most on the year so far; they did post 500 total yards against the Chiefs in Week 6, but they’ve only averaged just over 370 yards per game since that time – which could have a lot to do with a missing or less-than-100-percent Sony Michel from Weeks 8-10.
Here’s a few of my takeaways from this past weekend’s victory in the Meadowlands:
Gronk was finally back in action with a score on Sunday.
So how about this week’s matchup? Well, the Pats are set to square off at home against a 6-4-1 Vikings squad who just beat Aaron Rodgers and the Packers on Sunday night. While they haven’t been quite as strong as many expected this year, there’s no doubt they’re still one of the top teams in the NFC, if not the entire NFL.
As always, here’s a look at where, when, and how to watch the game along with the latest lines:
I’ve heard many people out there say that the success of the Vikings has lived and died by the play of Kirk Cousins this year, but I don’t necessarily agree. After signing a record NFL deal with Minnesota this offseason, Cousins has been solid but unspectacular in his first year. His overall stat line looks pretty great – 101.9 QB rating; 3,289 passing yards; 22 TDs; 7 INTs – but he’s also laid a few clunkers in which he passed for under 230 yards this season. The irony is, though, all three of those games were victories for the Vikings, as Cousins is still supported by a pretty damn good defense.
Captain Kirk is still one of the game’s best passers, no matter how you spin it.
The Viking’s D is a top-five unit against both the run and the pass, and they currently sit third in total yards allowed per game. The team is literally LOADED on every level of their defense; from 11.5-sack stud defensive end Danielle Hunter to tackle monsters like Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr to elite secondary players like Xavier Rhodes and Harrison Smith, this may be the best defense the Pats have faced all season – besides maybe a pre-collapse Jaguars team in Week 2. Taking away the 556 yards they gave up to the Rams in Week 4, the Vikings would be No. 1 in the league in yards allowed per game.
The “Purple People Eaters” are back in Minnesota, folks.
Therefore, it’s not going to be an easy one for the Pats offense, even at home. And it’s not like they can just sit back and hope for a grind-it-out type of battle either; Minnesota still has a top-15 offense, which is only being dragged down by an underperforming running game. As mentioned above, Cousins is still having a great year and has studs like Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs – both of whom have combined for 172 catches, 1,996 total yards, and 14 scores through just 11 games (!!!) so far – helping him run the league’s seventh-best passing offense.
But, again, if there is any saving grace for the Pats it’s the Vikings running game. With the secondary being one of the Pats strength’s, hopefully they can slow down Minnesota’s air attack just enough to force them to rely a bit more on the ground. Though I do think the Pats can hold up against the run, Dalvin Cook does have the ability to torch our pass-coverage-inept linebacking corps, as he’s put up over 40 receiving yards per contest in games in which he’s received at least four targets. But again, as long as the Pats can force Minnesota to run a bit more than they’d like to, they could be OK.
(THURSDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: Xavier Rhodes missed his second straight practice on Thursday with a hamstring injury, which he injured on Sunday. At first it was thought to be serious, then it wasn’t, and now it might be again. It’s looking less and less likely that he’ll play, which would be wonderful news for the Pats offense. Stefon Diggs also missed his second straight practice, so the Vikes could be without one of their top weapons on both sides of the ball on Sunday.)
Storylines
(How Will Burkhead Be Used?): The Pats officially activated Rex Burkhead off I.R. on Monday, and he’s expected to be mixed in with Michel and James White in the backfield starting this week – but just how much? With both Michel and White playing so well and forming a lethal 1-2 punch this year, is there really any room for Sexy Rexy? Of course, having him as an extra depth piece can only be a good thing, but it’ll be interesting to see how Bill uses him throughout the rest of the year. Again, I predicted this guy to be our friggin’ offensive MVP this year, so he’s no slouch, but I’m honestly unsure if there’s a whole lot of opportunity left for him at this point. Stay tuned.
No idea how we’re gonna use ya, but welcome back, bud!
(A Shuffling of the Line): While players like Lawrence Guy and Malcolm Brown have seen relatively consistent usage this season, there has been one particular riser AND faller, respectively, at the D-tackle spot over the past few weeks, both of whom are worth noting. Adam Butler, a second year man out of Vandy, has really come on strong over the past few weeks, playing over 50 percent of the snaps in two of the past three games. His strong play continued on Sunday, as he almost sniped an interception on a tipped pass and recorded a QB hit. Danny Shelton, however, has seen his snap share plummet; after playing on over 47 percent of the snaps through the first six games, he’s been used in only about 25 percent of the defensive sets over the past five weeks. Yikes! Sure, game script can dictate how certain lineman are used, but an over 20 percent drop in playing time is pretty significant. John Simon also saw an over 20 percent increase in playing time on Sunday, playing on 42 percent of the snaps after averaging no more than 20 in the three games prior. Bill has never been afraid to shake up the rotation up front based upon recent performance, but he’ll likely need to refine the group a bit once it gets closer to playoff time.
Prediction
If Stephon Gilmore – who, outside of a rough game in Tennessee, has been playing at a truly elite level recently – can keep Diggs at bay on the outside, the Pats will just need to find a way to contain Thielen in the slot. A little extra zone coverage can be used to prevent Cooks from lighting it up on catches out of the backfield, and I’m not too worried about what he or Latavius Murray can do otherwise. Julian Edelman will also likely be the Pats’ X-factor on offense with Josh Gordon facing a tough matchup with Rhodes on the boundary. In the end, though, Minnesota does just enough to beat the Pats out, 31-28.
I’m busy at work and mad at fantasy football so all I have to say is go Sox and enjoy the fantasy takes.
Mattes
Having the second-least amount of points in the league and the most points scored against is just not a good combo. Got an almost 40-berger out of Mitchell Trubisky as a streamer and still lost by almost 80 to the league’s top scorer. At least I have an extra second-rounder next year, and it’s looking like Kerryon Johnson is going to be a stud sixth-round keeper (179 yards of total offense this week). I’m just trying not to finish last at this point.
Had a great week in my other league, but – you guessed it! – I ran into the week’s high-scorer. Got 70 points out of my receivers alone, though, and now that Arizona has someone competent running the offense I’m hoping David Johnson has a little second-half resurgence. Also, it looks like I’m not going to lose Sony Michel for the year after all, and I was somehow able to snag Tarik Cohen last week, who has three-straight 20-plus point games. I’m 4-3 and feeling good about things to come.
Papa G
In a shocking turn of events, I continued my hot streak to go 3-0 again this week. Beat Red by a solid 3 points thanks to Julio Jones. A special thanks to the New York Giants for being a dumpster fire and making this all possible. In one of my other leagues I won by .14 points so luck was on my side this week. Fully expect to nose dive soon enough though.
Red
I would like to thank Ezekiel Elliott for murdering any chances I had this week in both of my leagues with a whopping 5 points. How bout them Cowboys indeed. Also, shoutout to Papa Giorgio for beating me by 3 points on garbage time stats in the 4th quarter of Monday Night Football.
Big Z
Picked up a 98-81 win in Week 7 to improve to 4-3 and move into a tie for third place in my league. James White and the New England D/ST came up big for me. Of course it didn’t hurt that my opponent wasn’t up for the London game in time to bench Melvin Gordon who was out.
My only gripe comes from the TE position. I’ve got Eric Ebron and George Kittle. They both seem to be boom or bust, and I’ve yet to figure how to play the right guy any given week. At least it didn’t cost me a win in Week 7, and gets me a little bit closer to the Bench Points Championship
Joey B
My team is just awful and I lost by 20 to fall to 3-4. Whatever.
WOOO! That a was close one.
The Pats pulled out the 38-31 victory in Chicago yesterday, but that was only after the Bears put up a great fight and almost came through with a miracle play at the very last possible moment.
The game ended up being a lot more high-scoring than I anticipated, but it was almost just as close. While they were able to contain most of the Bears’ weapons throughout much of the day, Mitchell Trubisky did post over 400 yards of total offense by himself – looking like Michael freakin’ Vick in his prime at times – and the defense allowed a lot of yards over the middle of the field.
Overall, though, it was a good performance against a still very underrated team. Here are a few postgame tidbits for you to wash down with your Wheaties on this fine Monday morning.
Say It Ain’t So, Sony!
After a string of very impressive performances for the rookie, I cautioned everyone to temper expectations heading into Sunday’s contest against the Bears’ top-10-rated run defense. Michel made me look foolish by ripping off 18 yards on his first carry of the day (although he did only have four yards on three carries after that) before going down with what looked like a gruesome leg injury early in the second quarter. As of early Monday morning, we still don’t know the severity of the injury, but it definitely did not look good, especially for a guy with his injury history. More to come on this story, which should be expected after he undergoes an MRI at some point today.
(MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: So we still don’t officially know the final ruling on the injury, but we did get this from NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport on Monday:
Sources: #Patriots RB Sony Michel’s knee injury is not considered serious following his MRI. His timetable isn’t clear, but this is pretty good news for their impressive rookie runner. He still could miss time, but if he does, it may not be much.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) October 22, 2018
There’s speculation it could be an MCL sprain, but thankfully NOT a tear. We probably won’t know much more until the Pats are forced to release injury updates later on in the week. For now, Pats Nation will hold its collective breath.
ANOTHER UPDATE: Schefty coming in hot with a bit more details later on in the afternoon:
MRI on Patriots’ RB Sony Michel revealed no structural damage, per source. Michel will be considered week to week, per source. Best-case scenario for Michel and Patriots.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 22, 2018
Hallelujah! Looks like the kid dodged a bullet.)
Big Ups to the Big Boys Up Front
The Pats offensive line has been phenomenal all season long, and they continued their excellent performance in the Windy City on Sunday. Although Khalil Mack was playing at less than 100 percent, they still only allowed just one sack on the day (which, by the way, Pro Football Focus blamed on a broken screen play as opposed to any particular lineman’s error [h/t NESN.com]). Shaq Mason, especially, has been playing at an elite level, and he’s certainly proving that he’s worthy of that $50 million extension he signed this offseason. If the line can play this well against one of the league’s premier defensive units, that bodes well for the durability of our elder statesman at quarterback. Big round of applause to the entire offensive line. Just a helluva job all around.
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The big fella’s been one of the game’s elite so far in 2018.
Pass-Rush Continues to Improve
OK. OK. So maybe my article from a few weeks ago was a tiny bit Chicken Little-ish. While I’m certainly not going to go so far as to say the Pats have a “great” pass-rush, by any means, it’s definitely not “bad.” The team finished with two sacks in total, but were also credited with 13 hurries and three other QB hits. Adrian Clayborn finally got in on the action with his first takedown of the year, and Kyle Van Noy – while perhaps a bit lacking in terms of coverage yesterday – was able to pin his ears and get in Trubisky’s face with five pressures on the day. The team probably could have had more sacks were it not for Trubisky’s surprising elusiveness (he ran for 81 yards on the day, including this absolutely ridiculous touchdown run). Overall, I’m happy with what I’ve seen from the defensive front past two weeks.
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Deatrich Wise continued his strong season yesterday with yet another QB takedown.
Other quick hits:
Next up is what should be an absolute cupcake of a matchup against the Buffalo Bills (sorry, Papa Giorgio) next Monday night in Foxborough. Be sure to check in on Thursday for the game preview!
The 300s 