Tag: Pats

The Patriots Reportedly Tried to Trade for Antonio Brown (Update: Maybe Not)

By Mattes on March 11, 2019 • ( 1 Comment )

(UPDATE: The Internet can be a funny place. While I did say “reportedly” from the get-go when first posting this story, it seems as though – as of 1:40 p.m. on Monday afternoon – nobody can say for sure whether or not the Pats actually made this offer. I was using a third-party tweet which was reporting a quote from one of the NFL’s leading experts, Ian Rapoport, after he supposedly broke the news on NFL Network this morning. Apparently, though, he may have been misquoted. However, there are many sites which are still reporting this story as fact, so who knows? IF this is true, below are my two cents on the matter as well as what it could potentially mean for the Pats going forward):

I think we all owe Jon Gruden an apology.

After a nine-year absence from the NFL sidelines, he was hired last January to become the new head coach (and de facto G.M.) of the Oakland Raiders. At first, many people (myself included) scoffed at the idea. Even though he had a pretty successful 10-year run as a head coach in the late 90s/early 2000s – which included a Super Bowl victory with Tampa Bay in 2003 – most were skeptical that the 55-year-old cartoon character of an individual could be successful in today’s NFL.

He was then eviscerated by the media for trading away one of the game’s best defenders in Khalil Mack just two months later (even though he got a pretty solid return). He also “reached” on an offensive tackle with his first draft pick in May, and things weren’t looking all that great for Gruden heading into last season…and honestly, they didn’t get much better.

BUT, even in the midst of suffering through what was a pretty miserable season in 2018, Gruden was able to trade away a young but maddeningly inconsistent wide receiver named Amari Cooper to Dallas for a first-round pick. Again, even though he received yet another first-round pick – giving Oakland THREE of them in 2019 – people still blamed him for not using Cooper correctly and giving away one of the game’s premiere young talents.

While things certainly got better for him in Dallas, Cooper was an absolute roller-coaster ride out in Oakland.

Now, he has Antonio Brown, the game’s best receiver over the past half-decade. OH, and he only had to trade away a third- and fifth-round pick for him. So basically, Gruden traded away Amari Cooper, Khalil Mack, a third, and a fifth for the following:

Antonio Brown
Three first-round picks (2018 [1], 2019 [2])
A sixth-round pick in 2019
A third-round pick in 2020

That is absolutely ABSURD. There’s also rumors the team is gearing up to sign Le’Veon Bell as well. Things could start to turn around for the Raiders pretty quickly.

On the flip side, the Steelers are being ripped apart for getting so little in return for a guy who has been on a truly historic run over the past six years (six-straight seasons of at least 100 catches, 1,200 yards, and nine touchdowns). To be fair, A.B. pretty much had all the leverage in deciding where he would go by making a new contract mandatory from whichever team he went to. The Bills, the team he was reportedly traded to on Friday morning but then wasn’t just two hours later, weren’t willing to do that; the Raiders, though, saw no issue with it. Therefore, the Steelers had to take the best offer available.

However, today we were told that there was allegedly at least one team out there who was willing to offer even more:

According to @RapSheet the #Steelers rejected a deal with the #Patriots, who offered a 2nd and 4th round pick

Instead, of course, they settled for a 3rd and 5th to send @ab84 to the #Raiders

— Sportsnaut (@Sportsnaut) March 11, 2019

IF this is actually true, then this says two things to me:

The Patriots have been so good that other teams are now willing to hurt themselves and TAKE LESS just so the Pats can’t get better. (Truly unbelievable stuff.)
The Pats really are still trying to bring in a top-flight receiver, and maybe (juuuust maybe) they are getting ready to spend some capital to bring in some more talent to play with Brady – as I predicted they might do in my piece about the 2019 free-agent wide-receiver class this past Friday.

All we do know is that the offseason is starting off with a bang so far, and the Pats could be a lot more involved than most people think. Also, the Steelers are SHOOK and were just pantsed by two different star players this year.

Get your popcorn ready, folks. These could be a fun next couple of months.

Could the Patriots Finally Break the Bank for a Free Agent Wide Receiver?

By Mattes on March 8, 2019 • ( 1 Comment )

This is going to be an interesting offseason for the Patriots. Coming off a Super Bowl victory with an aging roster, the next few months will be crucial to the long-term success of the franchise.

The new NFL league year starts this Monday (March 11), and after the team decided not to use their franchise tag this offseason, we already know that some of the team’s biggest names from their championship squad are set to hit the open market, including:

Trey Flowers: Your leading sack artist for the past three seasons and one of the best young edge defenders in the league.
Trent Brown: The guy who served as a more than solid blindside protector for your soon-to-be 42-year-old quarterback.
Jason McCourty: Your starting slot cornerback who had a career year and may have single-handedly saved the Super Bowl this past February.
Stephen Gostkowski: Your starting kicker for the past 13 seasons. He may have had some big misses in his career, but he has also been one of the league’s most consistent legs over the past decade and a half.

With the current state of kicking in the NFL, Stevie Boy could receive a pretty penny for his services this offseason.

While I do believe the team will re-up with McCourty, it’s looking more and more likely that the other three above are on their way out of Foxborough. This also fails to mention that besides Julian Edelman, the Pats have pretty much no other wide-outs of note under contract for 2019, as all of Cordarrelle Patterson, Chris Hogan, and Phillip Dorsett are unrestricted free agents as well. (Josh Gordon is technically still under the team’s control, but who the hell knows what’s going to happen with him?)

OK then.

Look, we’ve been here before. Anyone who believes that the Pats will be in dire straits next season, even if all of those players walk, obviously hasn’t been watching this team for the past 18 years. Belichick & Co. always find a way to make up for their perceived shortcomings, and their ability to bring in key guys on the cheap or in shrewd ways is unparalleled, uncanny even. Bleacher Report’s Mike Tanier wrote a great piece this week highlighting Belichick’s roster-building mastery over the years.

Relax, everybody. This ain’t Bill’s first rodeo.

But, again, with Edelman being literally the only non-running back the team knows it will be able to rely upon next season (stiiiiillll no word on Gronk…), maybe it’s time to bring in another big piece to help Brady during his twilight years.

Fortunately, the 2019 free-agent class is ripe with talent at wide receiver, a few of which the Pats have been connected to before. I already highlighted last week that Golden Tate said he would love to don the Pats colors, and Jay Glazer reported this week that the Pats apparently tried to bring in long-time Aaron Rodgers favorite, Randall Cobb, at some point last year. They ultimately ended up bringing in Josh Gordon instead…and we all know how that worked out.

Most would say that the Pats would likely want to target another outside/big-play receiver a la Gordon, and Cobb would fit that mold. Others like Tyrell Williams, John Brown, Demaryius Thomas, Devin Funchess, Dez Bryant, and even Mike Wallace (yes, that Mike Wallace) would be welcomed additions to a team severely lacking in weaponry on the boundary. I wouldn’t hate the team taking a stab on any of those guys. (Except maybe Dez. I just don’t want to deal with all the B.S. that comes along with him.)

So Cobb could potentially go from playing with one H.O.F. quaterback to playing with an even more legendary signal-caller. Man, tough life.

But truthfully, the slot is where it’s at with this free-agent group, highlighted by the aforementioned Tate. And even though we already have one of the game’s best in Edelman, I’d much rather see the Pats open up the purse to bring in the best players possible as opposed to signing a lesser guy due to “need.” Obviously, Tate is at the top of my wish list, but he’ll likely be a bit too expensive.

But what about someone like Jamison Crowder? A 25-year-old who had 133 catches and over 1,600 yards between 2016-2017 for Washington before being slowed by a tough injury last season. Or maybe Adam Humphries, who had 76 catches on 105 targets last year in an extremely crowded wide receiver group in Tampa Bay. According to various reports, both players are expected to receive around $10 million per year, which honestly isn’t a price that should prohibit the Pats from acquiring Brady some much-needed talent to play with.

If we can’t have Tate, then I’d say Crowder is probably No. 2 on my list.

Even Cole Beasley, who has basically been a poor man’s Julian Edelman in Dallas for the past few seasons, would be a nice piece. Michael Crabtree, Chris Conley, Dontrelle Inman, and J.J. Nelson are names to keep an eye on as well. The point is, there’s no shortage of receiver help for the Pats to choose from, and signing a guy off the wire would also allow the team to use its abundance of draft capital this year toward beefing up some other important positions.

I know a lot free-agent receiver additions haven’t worked out so well in the past for the Pats (see: Ochocinco, Chad; Decker, Eric; Wayne, Reggie), but those guys were also past their prime and heading toward the end of the line. Getting one of the marquee names available this offseason would be a different move entirely.

So, if we’re going to let Flowers walk, we might as well use that $20 million or so in cap space (which could potentially be even more if Brady restructures his contract) on something. There’s a first time for everything, Bill. Go get us a wide out!

Golden Tate Wants to Sign With the Patriots!

By Mattes on February 28, 2019 • ( 1 Comment )

Earlier this week, former Seahawks, Lions, and Eagles wide receiver Golden Tate, who is currently a free agent, appeared on the Prostyle Podcast and let it be known that he’d love for the chance to play with TB12 & Co. next season:

“Man, I would love it. I would love it. That organization, they’ve proven to be champions year in and year out. They work hard, for sure. But you know where you’re going to be at the end of the season. You’re going to be looking at not going to the playoffs, but you’re going to be looking at maybe a first-round bye, which is key.”

“You gotta admire that organization. They do things right. They’ve been doing it for a long, long, long time. So, I’d definitely love to be a part of something like that and catch a few passes from ol’ Tommy Boy. Julian [Edelman] is a buddy of mine. I’m real good buddies with him and I’ve heard good things. Kyle Van Noy, who got traded from Detroit and has been there and has been balling out since, has said great things about the organization. I definitely would not mind going over there for sure.”

(h/t Sports Illustrated).

Sign. Me. Up.

Tate and the Patriots would be a match made in Heaven. The 31-year-old has compiled 446 receptions over the past five seasons, which included four-straight 90-plus-catch campaigns in Detroit from 2013-2017. He is one of the very best slot receivers in the game, and his high football I.Q. and route-running prowess would make Brady drool.

This guy was an absolute stud out in the Motor City.

Yes, the Pats already have one of the game’s best slot guys in Julian Edelman, but adding someone like Tate to the mix would give opposing defenses absolute FITS over the middle of the field. Tate’s presence would allow the Pats to do what they do even better: wear down the opponent with short, quick timing routes that help move the chains and kill the clock all game long. As much as this team could benefit from a big-play receiver on the outside – especially if Gronk leaves and Josh Gordon doesn’t come back – Brady has always been much more successful with smart, possession receivers like Tate. It almost makes too much sense.

Tate has also had at least four touchdowns in every season since 2012. He also finished with the 11th-most yards after the catch at the wide receiver position last year, so he actually does have some big-play ability as well.

With Edelman being the only receiver of note who is guaranteed to be on the field for the Pats next season, the position will obviously need to be addressed this offseason. And rather than go out and spend lavishly on a player like Odell Beckham or Antonio Brown, the team could spend far less to bring in a guy like Tate, who would probably be much more effective in the Patriots’ system anyway.

I know, I know, the team doesn’t have the best track record with free-agent wide outs, but I would be absolutely shocked if someone of Tate’s caliber and acumen didn’t work out here. Again, this one just makes too much sense. MAKE IT HAPPEN, BILL!

Post-Weekend Robert Kraft Update and a Few Other Patriots Notes

By Mattes on February 25, 2019 • ( Leave a comment )

Folks throughout the nation are still trying to process the news that broke on Friday about Patriots owner Robert Kraft, with a full spectrum of reactions ranging from “So what? It’s his own personal life” to “HE NEEDS TO SELL THE TEAM!”

Myself and the boys already provided you with our initial reaction to the story in this week’s podcast, so I’m not here to rehash what I’ve already said. (To be entirely honest, it’s still a very fluid, very contentious, and very far-reaching story – for which we still don’t have all the facts – so I feel as though I’ve said all I needed to say so far.)

But many are wondering what’s going to happen next, and we did receive at least some more insight regarding the potential fallout, which all started very early on Monday morning with this tweet from ESPN’s Michele Steele:

An arrest warrant for Patriots owner Robert Kraft is imminent – and may be served as early as today, charging documents must be completed and either signed by a judge or processed by the clerk of court. State attorney in Palm Beach making the formal charging decision.

— Michele Steele (@ESPNMichele) February 25, 2019

Steele also notes later on in the thread that, to this point, Kraft is not being charged with anything implicating his involvement in any form of human trafficking.

The NFL also released their first official statement regarding the matter this morning:

A new NFL statement on #Patriots owner Robert Kraft’s allegations of soliciting prostitution says the league is seeking “a full understanding of the facts” while not interfering with an ongoing investigation. Here it is in full: pic.twitter.com/8x1XMgen6T

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) February 25, 2019

So, as of lunch time on Monday, here’s what we know so far:

Kraft is being charged with a misdemeanor and arrested for soliciting prostitution.
Kraft, at least as it currently stands, is NOT being charged with any involvement (or knowledge of) human trafficking relating to the establishment he visited.
The NFL is letting the full investigation play out before making a decision regarding how they plan to punish Kraft.

OK, so at least it didn’t get any worse than what we first learned on Friday.

When trying to project what type of punishment Kraft could receive from the NFL, it’s important to remember that the league is actually kind of limited by the CBA in regards to what it can do to reprimand owners. Besides issuing a “maximum fine” of $500,000 (which is NOTHING to Kraft), the league can simply choose to suspend him for a long time. They cannot technically force him to sell the team or step down in any way.

Your move, Rog.

How long will they suspend him, you ask? That’s where it gets interesting. Everyone wants to bring up Indianapolis Colts owner/CEO Jim Irsay, who was suspended for six games and fined $500,000 back in 2014 after being arrested for driving under the influence (which came after a series of other previous drug-related “infractions”). Tom Benson and the Saints also lost $500,000, along with two draft picks, for the whole Bountygate scandal in 2012. And way before Roger Goodell’s time, former 49ers owner Eddie DeBartolo was fined and suspended for an entire year in the late ’90s after getting caught up in a gambling scandal.

But, in truth, a more recent example might serve as a more telling indicator of what may lie ahead. After being accused of years-long sexual misconduct and racism as owner of the Carolina Panthers, Jerry Richardson was pretty much shamed into selling the team last year AND ultimately ending up shelling out almost $3 million, all told. Especially after their mishandling of the Ray Rice situation – as well as the fact that they have STILL yet to determine any sort of punishment for Kareem Hunt – the NFL could look to make a similarly strong statement against Kraft as the one they took against Richardson; after all, these are owners who are (so they say) supposed to be held to a much higher standard.

Richardson suffered a pretty harsh, and well-deserved, punishment just last year.

And that’s really the whole scoop on Kraft for now, with plenty more still to come in short order. Stay tuned.

In other Patriots news…

(Don’t Call It a Comeback): While we did receive word last week that safety Devin McCourty would be returning next season, we still don’t have an answer about Gronk. Apparently, he’s been seen around the team facility over the past couple of weeks, so that’s a good sign. But otherwise, all we’ve got so far is this quote from Gronk’s agent Drew Rosenhaus from last Tuesday:

“I checked in with Gronk a couple of days ago. I talked with the Patriots about it. Right now, Rob is thinking it through. He is giving it a lot of thought. Rob will certainly I think make a decision in the foreseeable future. I don’t want to put any pressure on him and give him a timeframe, but I would imagine it will be sometime in the next couple of weeks.” (h/t WEEI.com)

Cool. Thanks for literally nothing, Drew.

What are ya thinking, big fella?

Hopefully, Gronk is considerate enough to let the team know his decision before the new league year and free agency starts on March 13.

(The Other McCourty Wants Back In, Too): After being reunited with his twin brother and having a career year topped off by a Super Bowl win in 2018, Jason McCourty made no secret of his desire to return to Foxborough when speaking to the media on Sunday. Unlike his brother, however, Jason is not already under contract and is instead set to hit unrestricted free agency this offseason. In fact, he is one of 18 Pats players scheduled to hit the open market next month. Fortunately, though, besides maybe Stephen Gostkowski, he looks like the most likely to return, and I’m fully confident both sides will get something done quickly to make sure No. 30 is back in a Pats uniform next season.

(What About Flowers and Brown?): Technically, there haven’t been any concrete updates pertaining to Trey Flowers or Trent Brown – who are easily the team’s two biggest free agents – but it doesn’t change the fact the entire offseason is predicated on what happens next with these two (particularly Flowers). Just this morning, Bleacher Report posted a story about how Flowers could be the “NFL’s top free agent” this offseason, proving just how difficult it may be to bring the stud defensive end back – especially when you consider the team’s typical frugality relating to free agents in the past. Brown is likely off to greener pastures, but the Pats’ offseason truly cannot start until Flowers’s next move is known. I am praying that Bill & Co. open up the purse strings on this one. We can’t let Flowers walk. We just can’t.

PAY THIS MAN, BILL!!!

(Sitting Pretty for the Draft): Last week, it was announced the Patriots would be given a league-high four compensatory picks in the upcoming draft, giving them two additional picks in the third round as well as an extra pick in each of the sixth and seventh rounds. That means the Pats now have seven picks in the first four rounds (!) of the 2019 NFL Draft, allowing them to bring in hoards of young talent this offseason or, even better, using the capital they have to make a shrewd trade for another helpful piece. No matter what they do with the picks, it’s a really nice position to be in.

That’s it for now, but with the 2019 league year set to kick off in just about three weeks, we’ll have plenty more in store for you along the way. So be sure to keep checking in with The 300s for all your Pats offseason news and updates!

Would Signing Colin Kaepernick Make Sense for the Patriots?

By Mattes on February 20, 2019 • ( Leave a comment )

Get your popcorn ready, folks. We could be gearing up for a civil war in Pats Nation.

After settling with the NFL last week in his collusion suit against the league, Colin Kaepernick is apparently ready to get back out onto the field. And there are some who believe Foxborough could potentially be the new home for the 31-year-old quarterback.

NFL Hall of Famer Cris Carter initially brought up the idea on FS1’s “First Things First” this past Friday. Then, the following day, Kaepernick’s lawyer Mark Geragos said this to CNN:

“I think you’re going to see … within the next two weeks that somebody is going to step up and do the right thing, and you want me to predict who? Besides the Panthers, it would not surprise me if [Patriots owner] Bob Kraft makes a move.”

It’s important to note that this is nothing more than pure speculation, with literally zero supporting or corroborating evidence at the moment. But he was still rather specific regarding which teams he pointed out, right? I mean, there are 30 other franchises in the league that Geragos could have mentioned as well…but he didn’t. Typically, when there’s smoke there’s fire, so maybe there is something to this.

Now, it should also be pointed out that Bob Kraft is one of the only – if not THE only – NFL owner who has ever publicly supported Kaepernick in any way since the whole protest controversy began. Back in November, Kraft said the following to The New York Times when asked if he thinks the QB should get another chance in the NFL: “Let me say this: I would very much like to see him in the league” (h/t CBS Boston).

Bobby is one of the only owners in the league who actually seems to have a social conscience.

OK, so we at least know for sure that Kraft is in favor of Kaepernick get another shot; we do not know, however, if that means he necessarily wants that shot to happen with his team.

Why? Well, because it would cause quite the uproar that, sadly, could hurt the team’s standing with a large portion of its loyal fan base.

I am not going to sit here and rehash the merits of Kapernick’s message or why those who oppose what he did feel the way they do. I was already pretty clear regarding my support for Kap’s cause last year, and my feelings haven’t changed one bit. Unfortunately, though, neither have the feelings of those who continue to unfairly vilify him while completely and utterly misconstruing the real purpose behind his actions; nothing I can say or do will ever change the minds of those who are that stubborn and ignorant – and Kraft knows that nothing that comes out of his mouth will make a damn difference either.

Should that necessarily stop the team from taking a flyer on a talented, multi-tooled player who could serve as an extra (albeit unnecessary) weapon for a team that already just won a championship? No. In fact, if we’re being honest, nothing would bring me more joy than seeing all those irate and indignant Pats fans out there being forced to swallow the fact such a “MONSTER” would be wearing their favorite team’s uniform. (Seriously, I would REVEL in their rage. MAN, I want this to happen so bad SOLELY for that reason.)

But rather, it just doesn’t make sense from a football standpoint, and it’s probably not worth the circus act that would ultimately follow.

First, even if one supported signing Kaepernick, no Pats fan in their right mind should want to see him on the field for the team any time soon. If Kaepernick were to see any noteworthy playing time, that would only be because Tom Brady wasn’t able to play instead. And no, we’re not going to suddenly see Belichick and McDaniels start implementing the new multi-QB scheme we’ve seen teams like Baltimore and New Orleans try out recently. Not only is it foolish, but there is no way in hell Brady would ever stand for that. No freakin’ wayyyyy.

Secondly, for as physically talented as Kaepernick is, he’s really not as good as many of his supporters would like to believe. To be fair, he did post a pretty solid 16-to-4 TD-to-INT ratio in his last season with the 49ers, helping him finish with a 90.7 QB rating on the year over 11 starts. But his 28-30 career record, 59.8 completion percentage, and 177.8 passing yards per game are hardly inspiring. Were it not for his ability to run – which will only continue to deteriorate as he gets older – he would be nothing more than a serviceable backup.

Image result for colin kaepernick throwing

The guy is supremely talented, but he’s not really the world’s best field general.

Furthermore, he hasn’t played in three seasons, which in today’s NFL is a lifetime. Every year the game continues to adapt and change, and it’ll probably take him a while to shake off the rust. Especially in the Pats’ complex offensive system, he’ll likely struggle to pick things up, particularly if he barely gets any time other than the preseason to actually play within it. Let’s also not forget that the team already has a pretty good backup in Brian Hoyer, a guy who has years of experience within the scheme and apparently was the secret weapon in the team’s Super Bowl victory over the Rams.

And, again, what would the team actually stand to gain? You can’t even tell me that it’d be a move for the future. To reiterate: he’s 31 and hasn’t played one second of action in the league in either of the last two seasons. Also, I think we can all feel confident that Brady has at least two solid seasons left (if not more). Do you really believe that: a.) Kaepernick will wait that long to earn a starting role, or b.) the team should feel confident in a mid-30s scrambling QB leading them into the future once the G.O.A.T. is gone? Again, no freakin’ wayyyy.

Above all, Kap is looking to get PAID, and I just don’t see the Pats being willing to do that. Truthfully, with guys like Trey Flowers, Trent Brown, and Jason McCourty all set to hit free agency this offseason, I’d actually be pretty pissed if they did.

Re-signing Flowers needs to be No. 1 on the Pats to-do list this offseason. Until that happens, literally nothing else even matters.

So settle down, everyone. No matter what side you’re on, I just can’t see the team going out to bring this guy in any time soon. I truly hope he gets his shot somewhere, even if it’s only to stick it in the craw of all the haters. But I just doubt it happens here.

Patriots 2018 Report Card (Part 2): Defense

By Mattes on February 18, 2019 • ( Leave a comment )

The new league year starts in less than a month (March 13), and the Pats will have a lot of decisions to make in the coming weeks, especially considering the fact that 18 (!) guys from this year’s championship squad are set to hit unrestricted free agency.

But again, before we hop into the future, I’m here to bring you Part 2 of our 2018 Patriots report card. Last week, we focused on Brady and the offense; this week, we’re grading out the defense.

Overall, the Pats finished with the league’s 21st-ranked defense, but they did allow the seventh-least amount of points per game. As we’ve seen with most Belichick defenses over the years, the boys played a lot of “bend but don’t break” ball this year, giving up some yards but still finishing with the fourth-best opponent’s scoring percentage, only behind Chicago, Baltimore, and Houston. They also had the fourth-best turnover percentage, hauling in 18 interceptions on the year. And they even grabbed 10 fumble recoveries, too, which was good for 12th.

Now the new official head coach of the Miami Dolphins, Brian Flores did a great job with this unit in 2018.

The point is, the defense doesn’t get enough credit for just how important they were to the team’s success this season – especially in regards to the secondary, which featured First-Team All-Pro Stephon Gilmore and the dynamic McCourty twins duo.

To be honest, some guys (or groups) played much better than others, and, just like with the passing offense, the team certainly wasn’t without its flaws on the defensive side of the ball either.

Let’s look at the grade sheet…

Defensive Line: B

The play of the defensive line starts and ends with Trey Flowers. Both Red and I have never made any secret of our love for the do-it-all defensive end, who has been the leader of the team’s front seven for the past three seasons. In fact, Flowers was so good in 2018 that Pro Football Focus ranked him at No. 21 on its list of the 101 best players from this past season. Primarily a defensive end, Flowers is actually one of the more versatile D-lineman in the league, playing almost a quarter of his snaps from the inside and wreaking havoc no matter where he lines up. It seems as though he finds his way into the backfield on almost every play, and his 78 pressures (including the postseason) were the second most in the league. His 7.5 sacks also led the team. (SPOILER ALERT: Flowers was the team’s defensive MVP this season; yes, even over Gilmore.)

The team has a gigantic decision to make this offseason, as the 25-year-old is set to hit the open market. Belichick needs to open up the purse and lock this guy down for the long term, as he truly could serve as the foundation of the team’s D for much of the next decade. Usually pretty frugal as a franchise, the Pats HAVE TO change course and do whatever it takes to bring this guy back. PLEASE.

Lawrence Guy was also outstanding, even though most casual fans may not know who the hell he is. That’s no disrespect to the big fella, but most run-stuffing defensive tackles don’t usually get the love they deserve. The Pats struggled mightily as a team against the run at points this season (which I blame mostly on the linebackers), but they still finished 11th in the league against the opposing ground attack. Guy was a huge reason why, finishing with an elite 91.1 run-stuffing grade from PFF and coming in at No. 83 on the same list of best players Flowers found himself on this year.

This “Guy” deserves a ton of credit for his play this year. (Sorry, I had to.)

Malcolm Brown, another unrestricted free agent, was up and down this year. He lost more playing time than anticipated to second-year man Adam Butler. But overall, Brown was pretty consistent, or at least reliable, often taking on double teams that freed up others around him. Still, I wouldn’t say he did anything particularly special, and I’m predicting the team lets him walk this spring. (Also, Butler is a very underappreciated player on this line. Unlike Brown, Butler can rush the passer from the inside and has five sacks over the past two seasons. He came on strong as a rookie UDFA last season, and he could take a big leap forward with another solid showing in 2019.)

I thought Danny Shelton and Adrian Clayborn would’ve played a bigger roles after the Pats started last offseason off with a bang by bringing both guys in. Both were expected to make a much bigger impact, especially Clayborn. But, for some reason, each of them struggled to earn playing time in a crowded rotation, and Shelton was even benched entirely for one stretch of the season (before coming on strong in the playoffs). Both had their (brief) moments this year, but overall they were a major disappointment.

Clayborn played nowhere even close to how a guy making over $6 million per year should.

Finally, injuries slowed the trajectory of young guys like Derek Rivers and Deatrich Wise, Jr. this year, but I’m still excited about their potential. In fact, Wise, who finished with 4.5 sacks on the year, was my pick for defensive MVP this preseason after a solid rookie year. I’m looking forward to what these two can still do next season if they start off with a good camp.

Linebackers: D+

I really don’t have many great things to say about the team’s linebacking corps, and I’ve felt this way ever since the summer.

Let me just start by saying that Dont’a Hightower is one of the most overrated Patriots players in recent memory. Yes, he’s made some pretty big stops in his career in some pretty big moments, but the 28-year-old has noticeably slowed in recent years, often struggling to keep up with speedy opponents. He can still lay the wood on opposing ball-carriers, but that is only if he’s able to get to them first. And forget about pass-coverage, as both he and Kyle Van Noy allowed almost 70 percent of the passes they were targeted in coverage this postseason to be completed – and this was after the Pats already allowed the 11th-most receiving yards per game to opposing running backs throughout the regular season. There were also six games in which the Pats gave up over 130 yards on the ground.

At least Van Noy makes up for his poor coverage skills by being an above-average to excellent pass-rusher at times. His 3.5 sacks may not jump off the page, but he continuously applied pressure to opposing signal-callers all year, particularly in the postseason. He and Flowers were easily the team’s two best guys off the edge, and I believe Van Noy does play a pretty key role on the team’s D.

For as much flak as I give Van Noy, he can be pretty important at times.

Elandon Roberts – literally the only other linebacker to see significant playing time in 2018 – is entirely forgettable at this point. While once looked upon to be a potential piece for the team’s future, he struggled to even stay on the field this year. There’s really nothing more to say about him.

Fortunately, the Pats still have preseason standout Ja’Whuan Bentley, a promising rookie who was lost for the year due to injury in Week 3 against Detroit. I’m excited about what he can bring to the table. But again, this unit is in desperate need of an upgrade this offseason, especially in terms of guys with sideline-to-sideline ability. This should be one of the team’s main areas of focus over the next few months.

Defensive Secondary: A-

It shouldn’t come as a surprise that this is the unit receiving the highest grade, as the secondary was dominant at times this season. Remember, stats can be misleading; I realize the team finished 22nd against the pass, but that only means that they gave up a lot of yards – not points. Because truthfully, Stephon Gilmore routinely eliminated the opponent’s top weapon; in the 13 games he tracked receivers this year, he only allowed 42 catches on 90 targets for a measly 466 yards, per PFF. He was also selected as one of the league’s top two cornerbacks this season, earning his first All-Pro honors.

But it’s not all about Gilmore. As a team, the Pats finished 12th against thier opponents’ No. 2 receiver and fourth against “all other” wide receivers in terms of DVOA. Safeties Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, and Duron Harmon (who also served as a hyrbid linebacker at times) helped locked down the back end of the defense all year. They helped the team finish as the eighth-best against the tight end position as well.

Rookie J.C. Jackson was also a revelation. The undrafted free agent out of Maryland used a surprise standout preseason to springboard himself into a starting role opposite Gilmore as the season wore on. He did not come without his struggles, but his rapid ascension shows a lot of promise for him going forward.

The rookie far exceeded expectations in 2018.

And finally, I’d be remiss if I didn’t give some special shine to Jason McCourty. The Pats went out and brought him in on a flyer this offseason, trading a low draft pick to snatch him away from the Cleveland Browns, who were likely going to cut him otherwise. While he was still a serviceable corner in 2017, he was on his second team and looking at a career crossroads before coming to New England. But in 2018? He finished with the 11th-highest coverage grade at the position, per PFF, and the seventh-best mark against the run. He also played the most snaps he’s played since 2012, and he is another guy the team must make a priority to re-sign this offseason.

Much like the offensive line, you could argue that this group also deserves to be a collective MVP. They were absolutely fantastic.

(Defensive MVP): Trey Flowers – Many might want to give the nod to Gilmore here, but I’ve said pretty much all I needed to say about the star defensive end above. Flowers is the engine that keeps the defense running. He was an absolute stud again in 2018.

(Biggest Surprise): Jason McCourty – For a guy who many weren’t even sure would make it out of training camp, he was vital to the team’s final outcome this season. Perhaps revitalized playing with his twin brother, here’s to hoping the double trouble continues in Foxborough moving forward.

(Biggest Disappointment): The Linebackers – I’m really hoping the team makes an investment at this position this offseason. I’m just plain sick of watching these guys out there. Plain and simple.

Be sure to stay tuned to The 300s for all your Patriots offseason talk, which should ramp up even more in the coming weeks. No rest for the weary! On to 2019!

Patriots 2018 Report Card (Part 1): Offense

By Mattes on February 10, 2019 • ( 1 Comment )

It’s been a week since the Pats won title No. 6, and the reality is finally starting to settle in that football season is now officially over.

We here at The 300s will obviously have you covered on any and all Patriots offseason news. Of course, we’ll also be sure to provide you with plenty of hot takes, bold predictions, and passionate tirades regarding our own feelings about how Bill & Co. should do things as well.

But before all that, let’s take one more look at this year’s championship squad, as I grade out each grouping based on their 2018 performance. Today, we’re going to stick to the offensive side of things, with my take on the defensive guys coming later in the week. There’s even some accolades that will be presented at the end, which will give some well-deserved shine (or shame) to a few players who really stood out this year, for better or worse.

Let’s hop into the grade book:

Quarterback: B+

Giving Tom Brady anything less than an “A” grade is something I never thought would occur in my life, but I must be objective here. By most NFL standards, Brady still had a pretty good season; he finished in the top 10 in terms of both passing yards (4,355) and passing TDs (29). But by “Tom Brady” standards, he was a bit off. Both his TD rate and interception percentage were the worst they’ve been in about five years.

And while he did post five 300-plus-yard games, rarely were there times when I felt like Brady was THE reason the Pats were victorious in a particular contest. There were even a few games this year where he was just plain bad (i.e. at Detroit, at Tennessee, at Pittsburgh, and versus Buffalo at home). However, he was still MONEY when it really counted, though, especially at the end of the AFC Championship in Kansas City, and there’s still nobody else I’d rather have leading the way.

Running Backs: A-

As we’ve seen throughout much of the NFL in recent years, the Pats use a multi-back system which does not allow for one guy to get all the love; however, what makes the Pats’ system so effective is the fact that each player within it has his own defined role, and each role was executed almost to perfection this season.

While he did miss four games due to injury, rookie Sony Michel was vital in helping the team finish fifth in the league in terms of total rushing yards on the year. He hit the 100-yard mark six times in the regular season and finished just 69 yards short of breaking the 1,000-yard threshold (and again, he did so even while missing almost a quarter of the season). He also threw in two more 100-yard games in the postseason and finished with 12 TDs overall, six of which were in the postseason. Perhaps even more impressive is that he was able to do so even though the defense knew exactly what was coming, as Michel carried the ball on almost 70 percent of the offensive snaps he played. Some of that has to do with exceptional play by the O-line (more on that in a minute), but the kid also got it done when called upon this year.

James White finished with 425 yards on the ground (on just 94 attempts) and finished with five rushing scores. But, as everyone knows, his value lies in the passing game, where he led the team in targets (123), receptions (87), and receiving TDs (7). He and Julian Edelman kept the passing game alive, even at its very lowest points this year. He was pretty invisible in the Super Bowl, but he was a huge chain-mover against both the Chargers and Chiefs in the team’s other two postseason games. He was the definition of “Mr. Reliable” this year.

White really did so much for the team’s offense this year.

Rex Burkhead could barely stay on the field this season, and besides a solid playoff run, he was pretty lackluster otherwise. Even when he played, he averaged just 3.3 yards a carry on 57 totes. Still, Michel and White were one helluva 1-2 punch this season.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends: C-

To be entirely honest, Julian Edelman is the only reason why this grouping gets anything even close to an average grade, as it has been a very trying year for the team’s pass-catchers. While Edelman has been exactly as good as he was before the injury/suspension, those first four games without him this season were pretty rough.

Gronk has also been a major disappointment this season. Though he came alive during the two most important games of the year in the AFC Championship and Super Bowl, he averaged three catches and 50.5 yards in the 14 other games he played. He also only hauled in thee touchdowns. Those are some pitifully low numbers when comparing them to the rest of his career. While his blocking was still on point, basically serving as an extension of the offensive line at times this season, he was almost invisible in the passing game for much of the year.

At least the big fella still laid the smackdown on opposing defenders whenever called upon to do so.

Then there was the whole Josh Gordon saga. (Gordon and his 18 yards per catch would have provided a nice little bump to the grade if, ya know, he was still here and all.) But besides that, all the team had was Chris Hogan, Phillip Dorsett, and Cordarrelle Patterson – and, truthfully, Patterson was actually used as a gadget running back much more so than a receiver as the year wore on.

As I said above, Edelman, White, and a solid ground game were the reasons why the Pats were able to move the chains so well this year; it was certainly not due to a prolific passing attack. In fact, Edelman and White alone accounted for 43 percent of the team’s total receptions on the year. The timing-based, short-passing scheme continues to defy logic and still somehow baffles NFL defenses, but the Pats still need to add some playmakers on offense, especially as Brady gets older. This should be the first area they focus on doing so.

Offensive Line: A++++++++++++++++++++

So I might have been a bit too aggressive with all the pluses there, but the offensive line was truly exceptional this year. (And if you followed The 300s at all this year, you shouldn’t be surprised.) Not only did they allow Brady to be sacked just once in three postseason games, but they also allowed the third-lowest pressure rate overall this season. In total, he was sacked 22 times in the regular season. More important, though, is the fact that the line barely even allowed people to get in his face, which is extremely vital to both the success of the team’s timing-based offensive scheme and, more importantly, the health of its 41-year-old quarterback. And, as mentioned above, they also led the way for the league’s fifth-ranked rushing offense.

Just for even more perspective on how much of an advantage the Pats had up front over most of their competition throughout the league this season, check out this quote from CBS Sports’ Jared Dubin:

Rather, it was arguably the single best line in the league this season, ranking third in Adjusted Line Yards, first in Adjusted Sack Rate and third in pressure rate. All for the ridiculously low cost of just $14,539,489 against the cap. By way of comparison, consider the Chargers, who took on a cap hit of $14,968,750 this year for just left tackle Russell Okung, who gave up more sacks during the Chargers’ divisional round loss to the Patriots (one) than the Patriots have all postseason.

The main group of guys – left tackle Trent Brown, left guard Joe Thuney, center David Andrews, right guard Shaq Mason, and right tackle Marcus Cannon – also started together 94 percent of the time in 2018, showing incredible toughness and durability. The O-line was absolutely dominant this season, in every sense of the word – and that still might not be giving them enough credit.

(Offensive MVP): The Offensive Line – I’m usually averse to giving individual awards to an entire group of players, but it’d actually be more of a travesty if I didn’t this year. Sure, you could argue that White or Edelman would be worthy candidates as well, but much of their success derives directly from the play of the big boys up front. The O-line was the team’s keystone this year, plain and simple.
(Biggest Surprise): James Develin – I gotta give some love to “Jimmy Neck Roll.” The 30-year-old fullback has long been an unsung hero in the Pats offense, paving the way for the team’s rushing attack and serving as an extra piece to protect Brady in the backfield. But this year he was called upon to be much more, setting career highs in carries (6), receptions (12), and TDs (4). Considering he averaged just five total touches per year in his previous five seasons with just one career score, Devs stepped up big for this team in 2018.

(Biggest Disappointment): Chris Hogan – A lot of people might want to give this one to Gronk, but at least Gronk provided something of substance to the team’s offense even when he wasn’t catching the ball. For a guy who was expected to be the team’s leading man during Edelman’s suspension, Hogan hauled in just eight catches on 15 targets in those first four games; he then went on to compile a measly 27 catches over the next 12 games he played. He wasn’t completely useless, and he did average over 15 yards a catch. Perhaps he is simply nothing more than a No. 3 option with some deep-threat ability, which still has a lot of value in today’s NFL. However, that is all he’ll ever be, and nothing more.

Be sure to check back in later in the week for the rest of the grades, when we focus on the defense and special teams guys!

Brady Not Liking Being Called the GOAT is the Most Tom Brady Thing Ever

By Mattes on February 5, 2019 • ( Leave a comment )

As comes with the territory of being a Super Bowl champion, both Tom Brady and Julian Edelman, the game’s MVP, were in Disney World on Monday, parading around the Magic Kingdom in celebration after winning the big game the night before.

When it came time for Brady to sit down and do his obligatory interview with ABC’s “Good Morning America,” the 41-year-old said the following to Michael Strahan regarding how he feels about being labeled as “the G.O.A.T” (h/t CBS Sports):

“I don’t even like that. I don’t even like it — it makes me cringe. I guess I take compliments worse than — I wish you would say, ‘You’re trash, you’re too old, you’re too slow, you can’t get it done no more.’ And I’ll say, ‘Thank you very much, I’m gonna go prove you wrong.'”

OH COME AHHHHNN, TAAAHHHMMM. Can’t you just enjoy this for one freakin’ second??!!

We get it. You have the determination and work ethic of a coal miner in the 1800s. Your meticulous diet is enough to make even Richard Simmons blush. You’ve taken hundreds of hits – both on the field and off – over the past 20-plus years of football, and you STILL want to play for another 20 more. It amazes everyone how you are still so driven, on such a visceral level, by some incessant Napoleonic complex that comes from being a sixth-round draft choice almost 19 years ago. You’re also the only NFL player in history with six titles to his name. You’ve literally won more games than ANYONE else in the history of EVER. There will simply never be another Thomas Edward Patrick Brady Jr. Period.

And, I don’t know, maybe that’s why people can’t really say anything other than the fact that you’re the best that’s ever played. As much as people still want to hate you out of spite, at this point I don’t even think the most ardent Brady-haters out there would dare try to dispute that.

Look, I know this is just typical “athlete talk” and Brady would get eviscerated in the media if he instead responded to Strahan with a “YOU DAAAAAMN RIGHT, I AM.” But still.

So, come on, Tom. You’re not fooling anyone. You are the GREATEST OF ALL TIME. I know it. You know it. The world knows it.

But still, don’t lose that drive, though, old man. I wouldn’t mind another one or two before you ride off into the sunset.

Patriots “We’re Champions AGAIN!!!” Super Bowl Postgame Reaction and Quick Hits

By Mattes on February 4, 2019 • ( Leave a comment )

A lot of people are going to want to sit there this morning and say that was one of the worst Super Bowls that they’ve ever watched. It felt long. It felt tedious. It felt just outright boringgg a times. And it did feature the lowest total amount of points scored in any title game in NFL history, as the Patriots beat the Los Angeles Rams by a score of only 13-3.

All that matters, though, is that the Pats came out victorious in the end, tying them with Pittsburgh for the most championships in NFL history (6) and making Tom Brady the ONLY NFL player in the history of the planet with six Super Bowl titles to his name.

Julian Edelman, the game’s MVP, continued his long history of postseason dominance with another exceptional performance. His 141 receiving yards accounted for over a third of the Pats’ total offensive output in the game, and his 10 receptions were just under half of the total passes Brady completed overall in the game. Gronk also stepped up with six catches and 87 yards of his own, as the two combined for 228 of the team’s 262 total receiving yards.

Image result for julian edelman super bowl

Jules put up a performance for the ages.

But this game was ALL about the defense, as both sides were absolutely dominant on that side of the ball. Here’s a few stats for you to illustrate just how tough it was for both teams to move the chains last night:

Neither Brady nor Jared Goff could surpass 262 yards through the air, and both quarterbacks finished with ratings well under 75 for the game. (Goff had a putrid 57.9 rating!) Each signal-caller also threw a pick without a score.
Both teams converted on only about 25 percent of their third-down opportunities, and the Pats failed on their only fourth-down attempt.
There were a total of 14 punts in the game for over 630 yards.
The Rams did not reach the red zone ONCE throughout the entire game.

So, while some may be quick to claim that both teams were “bad” last night, maybe it was actually just the fact that both defenses were so “good.” In today’s NFL, offense usually steals the show, but I thought it was actually refreshing to see both sides play some old-school, smash-mouth, grind-it-out pigskin. And considering that both the Pats and Rams were top-five scoring teams this year, what both defenses were able to do was all the more impressive.

Both team’s defensive success started with their pass-rush. After not getting touched all postseason, Brady was finally sacked and hit another four times. But the Patriots were even more aggressive coming at Goff; they were able to take the young fella down four times and hit him another 12 (!), forcing him to make horrible tosses all over the field last night. For as much as I crap on Kyle Van Noy and his pass-coverage skills, he was a monster up front for the Pats on Sunday, with one sack and three QB hits of his own. Dont’a Hightower also had two sacks.

Image result for kyle van noy super bowl

All right, Kyle. Enjoy this one. You deserved it last night.

However, I would be entirely remiss if I did not mention the incredible play of the Pats’ secondary. Everyone will mention Stephon Gilmore‘s game-ending interception, but I think that Jason McCourty may have single-handedly saved the game with one third-quarter play. With the Pats up by only three points and just over 18 minutes to play in the game, Brandin Cooks broke free down the seam and was sitting WIDE OPEN in the end zone for what should have been a cupcake touchdown for L.A. Yet McCourty never gave up his pursuit and followed the 40-yard bomb Goff threw all the way to Cooks’s body, ultimately using his arms to knock the ball right out of Cooks’s hands at the very last moment in front of the goal post. (You can watch the play here. It truly was a season-saving play by No. 30.)

The Pats then held the Rams to a 53-yard field goal, which would be their only score of the game. In total, the defense also defended another eight passes from Goff, and, above all, they held both Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson to 68 total yards on 20 touches. At one point, the Pats also forced the Rams to punt the ball eight straight times. The Patriots defense was the real Super Bowl MVP last night.

This dude was pretty much M.I.A. in Atlanta on Sunday. His non-existence is truly what killed the Rams in this one.

Here’s a few more key takeaways from last night’s events:

I was all ready to write a fury-filled post today about Stephen Gostkowski AGAIN missing yet another field goal in a Super Bowl. On the Pats’ second drive of the game, Gostkowski missed a 46-yarder, after Brady threw a pick on the first drive, causing me to just stare blankly at the TV in complete fear and disbelief early on. BUT, the 13-year vet made up for it with two other successful kicks (and an extra point) which ended up being vital to the game’s final outcome. Still, that’s three straight times Gostkowski has missed a field goal on the game’s biggest stage, plus the one he missed in the 2015 AFC Championship in Denver. I’d still rather have him than most other guys in the league, but it’s never a given with him in pressure situations.

Nice save last night, Steve. Nice save.

Even though it’s usually a bad sign when you notice your punter’s efforts in a particular game, I gotta give it up to Ryan Allen. Some casual Pats fans probably couldn’t even name the 28-year-old or pick him out of a lineup, but he pinned three of his five punts last night inside the 20. He was one of the reasons the Rams kept starting off with such poor field position all night long. Matthew Slater also kept proving why he’s one of the best special teams guys ever, as he was constantly the one chasing those punts down and preventing them from bouncing into the endzone. I just wanted to make sure I gave credit to some guys who I know will fly under the radar in most postgame pieces out there today.

Image result for matthew slater super bowl

Long an unsung hero, Slater was vital to the team’s success again last night.

While both Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead ran the ball well last night, I was completely shocked by how little the running backs were used in this one. James White – who I shamelessly praised earlier this week – was completely invisible, in every sense of the word, touching the ball just three times for a total of nine yards. Surprisingly, however, White was on the field for just as many plays (27) as Michel, and both guys outsnapped Burkhead by eight plays. When you look at it, they all still played about a third of the team’s offensive snaps, and it seems as though they were simply called upon to be decoys last night, being used to draw coverage off of the primary targets Brady really wanted to go to. So, they didn’t really play “bad” at all; they just didn’t all get as much shine as usual. (And yes, game script was also a big factor here, too.)

The rookie showed up with some big plays last night, including the game’s only touchdown.

If this really is Gronk’s swan song, what a way it was to go out. Sure, he didn’t have a throwback, tried-and-true GRONKINATOR performance, but he was the team’s second-leading receiver behind Edelman. He also played on 100 percent of the plays, and we all know this guy still isn’t fully healthy (and may never be again). But he still gutted it out, with a few huge grabs in the biggest moments, cementing his status as one of the greatest Pats ever. Hats off to you, No. 87!

In all honesty, there’s really not much more to say about the game last night, as it truly was a test of patience for everyone involved – players, coaches, and fans alike. Sometimes, it’s just like that, and it all comes down to whoever’s left standing at the end.

And for the sixth time in the past 18 years, the ones left standing were none other than your New England Patriots. We’re champs again, baby! We are champs AGAIN!!!

Patriots Rams SUPER BOWL LIII Preview, Odds, and Predictions

By Mattes on January 31, 2019 • ( Leave a comment )

Photo cred: Roku Blog

Ya know, we really are so incredibly spoiled as Patriots fans.

Just think about it: For the third year in a row – and the ninth time in the past 18 seasons – we’re STILL gearing up for our favorite squad’s upcoming game as the calendar is about to hit February. Not since Buffalo made a run to four-straight Super Bowls in the 1990s has any other group been able to say that, and, in fact, four groups of fans have never had the chance to be in this position. I think it’s pretty well-established by this point that the Pats are quite possibly the greatest dynasty in the history of sports. But I just wanted to provide a friendly little reminder for anyone who forgot. (*He said with a big smirk.*)

All right, enough subtle bragging. Let’s get into the preview.

As always – for those who missed my full breakdown of all the game’s odds and prop bets last week – here’s a quick look at the important game info and latest lines:

Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta, GA)
Kickoff: Sunday, Feb. 3, 6:30 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Spread*: Patriots -2.5 / Rams -2.5
Moneyline*: Patriots -115 / Rams +130
Total*: 56.5 (total)

(*All of the information is courtesy of Odds Shark and updated as of Thursday, January 31.)

Where to begin? Well, for starters, both teams feature top-five offenses which are capable of putting up a lot of points in a hurry, while their defenses sit near the bottom third of the league overall (the Rams are 19th in total defense and the Pats aren’t too far behind at 21). But that does not mean either team is a pushover on the defensive side of the ball; in fact, both sides have Pro Bowlers and/or All-Pros all over the field, including likely NFL Defensive MVP Aaron Donald (Rams), who, in all seriousness, might be one of the greatest defensive lineman to ever play the game. (I’m not kidding.) Don’t also forget that the Pats gave up the seventh-least amount of points per game in the league this season (20.3).

More on this monster when we get to the storylines.

Again, though, it’s the offensive side of the ball where these two squads really cut their teeth. The Rams were one of three teams to put up over 30 points per game this year (32.9) and can be very explosive; they had the third-most completions over 20 yards this season and averaged the second most yards per play (6.4), only behind Kansas City. The Pats finished fourth in the league with 27.3 points per contest, and their 5.9 yards-per-play mark isn’t all that far behind. The point is: both of these teams know how to move the ball and get into the end zone.

But there’s one pretty notable advantage the Pats have over the Rams on offense, and it should be pretty obvious to even the most casual NFL fans. This will be Tom Brady’s 39th postseason game overall and the ninth time he’s played in the Super Bowl; Jared Goff will be playing in just his fourth playoff game and his first-ever Super Bowl. In fact, Brady has played in as many career postseason games (39) as Goff has played overall career NFL games when you combine regular-season and playoff appearances.

Goff looked petrified the whole time the two were up on stage together Monday night.

This is the Super Bowl, where experience matters. (Yeah, I know the Eagles pretty much disproved that last year, but I’m going to say that was an aberration.) And I think it’s pretty safe to say the Pats have the upper hand there:

The Patriots enter Super Bowl LIII with just a tad more Super Bowl experience than the Rams. pic.twitter.com/y9SvYcCzUD

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) January 28, 2019

There’s also the whole coaching experience the Pats possess as well. Again, much like Brady, I don’t think I need to waste time waxing poetic about how Bill Belichick is the greatest coach of all-time or talk about how he’s 34 years older than Rams coach Sean McVay, who is only in his second year of running the team. But, as I already pointed out last week, the fact that Belichick has been coaching in the league for over a decade longer than McVay has even been alive is INSANE, and it could certainly present itself as quite important in the game’s biggest moments.

However, McVay truly is an offensive wizard, and you can’t ignore the immense talent the Rams still possess. Fortunately, they may be slightly less talented than they were coming out of the gates this year, as Goff’s binky Cooper Kupp (aka “Julian Edelman Light”) was lost earlier in the year to an ACL tear, and All-World running back Todd Gurley has been slowed by knee issues of his own since the very end of the season. In fact, Gurley touched the ball just five times in the NFC Championship against the Saints for 13 total yards. Yet DO NOT SLEEP ON THIS MAN; he still put up over 1,251 yards on the ground and another 580 receiving this season with 21 total TDs. When healthy, Gurley is probably the top running back in the game right now. (And don’t forget, he’s also had two weeks off to heal up.)

A fully healed and rested Gurley is capable of taking over any game at any time.

Even if Gurley doesn’t show up, the Rams have C.J. Anderson, who apparently signed a deal with the Devil this winter. After a 1,200-plus-yard effort with Denver last season, Anderson was let go, and for some reason it took forever for him to find a new home. He then signed with Carolina and struggled through nine games as a backup before being cut in early November. Then, just before Christmas, the Rams signed him due to Gurley’s health, and he’s responded with three 100-plus-yard rushing efforts in four games so far, averaging 5.68 yards per carry!

The Rams also have Robert Woods and former Patriot Brandin Cooks as a very solid wide-receiver pairing. Both guys had at least 80 catches, 1,200 yards, and five TDs this season, and they’ll make it tough for the Pats’ secondary to decide who to focus on. (QUICK PREDICTION: The Pats will likely bracket Cooks with one safety over the top due to his deep-threat ability, basically nullifying him as a weapon. In turn, Goff will have to force the ball to Woods more often than he’d like to, causing a costly interception or two.) As I said, it’s no longer a three-headed monster with Cupp out, but Josh Reynolds has still been a decent No. 3 option who is averaging over 18 yards per catch this postseason. As far as tight ends go, they’re pretty unimpressive in that department, and the Pats should be able to lock them down with ease.

Old friend Cooks will be looking to actually play in the entire Super Bowl this time around.

Now, let’s get into some of the key matchups and other things I’ll be watching out for specifically on Sunday:

(Rams D-Tackles vs. Pats O-Line): I mentioned Aaron Donald at the top of the piece, and yes, he really is THAT good. He compiled 37 sacks through his first four seasons while also proving to be a force against the run, immediately proving himself to be one of the league’s top defenders after being drafted in the first round out of Pittsburgh in 2014. This season, though, he hit other-worldly levels, posting a league-leading 20.5 sacks, which is even more impressive considering he plays mostly from the interior. Michael Brockers has also been an underrated tackle for years, and let’s not forget the Rams also added former All-Pro Ndamukong Suh to the mix this year as well. Other than these guys, though, the Rams aren’t really all that scary up front (though defensive end and former No. 3 overall pick Dante Fowler can be good in spurts). Luckily, though, the Pats O-line has been even better, allowing zero sacks this postseason. As ferocious as Donald is, I’m really not worried about the Rams’ pass-rush in this one.

The Pats O-line has truly been exceptional, but they haven’t played this guy yet.

(The Rams Secondary vs. the Pats WRs): The strength of the Rams defense is supposed to lie in their secondary. This offseason, along with Suh, the Rams brought in two former All-Pro corners in Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib, and most were ready to hand them the Lombardi Trophy before the season even started (myself included). But, for some reason, Peters has actually been just awful at times this season, Talib missed half the year due to injury, and the team finished right in the middle of the pack in terms of pass-coverage. Safety Lamarcus Joyner has probably been their most consistent player back there in 2018, and I’m scared at how confidently I believe in Brady’s ability to carve them up. Also, even though Nickell Robey-Coleman has been one of the league’s best (if not the best) slot corner this year, I still fully expect Edelman to eat him ALIVE in the slot – hopefully he just doesn’t get away with any more B.S. non-calls:

(Pats Running Game vs. Rams Front Seven): The Pats were able to use all three of Sony Michel, James White, and Rex Burkhead against Kansas City, who collectively give them the best stable of backs they’ve had in years. While Michel is undoubtedly the grinder on the ground, the Pats can keep the Rams off balance with a mix of the other two catching balls out of the backfield. The Rams run defense has been a bit inconsistent this year; they kept guys like Ezekiel Elliot, Alvin Kamara, and Mark Ingram to a total of just 98 rushing yards this postseason, but they’d also given up over 100 ground yards in nine-of their-last-10 before that (including one where they surrendered 273 [!!!] and another in which they gave up 194). They also gave up the highest yard-per-carry average (5.1) to opponents this season. Knowing how good the Pats’ pass-blocking has been and the success they’ve seen with running the ball lately, the Rams will probably focus more on stopping the run. Believe it or not, even as bad as the Rams have been against the ground attack this year, I’m still expecting this one to set up much better for White and Burkhead as opposed to Michel. Cory Littleton (125 total tackles) has also been a revelation at linebacker for L.A. this year, and he could be the X-factor for them on defense in this one.

(Rams Running Game vs. the Pats Front Seven): I already mentioned how the Rams feature not only the game’s premier running back in Todd Gurley, but they’ve also received some unreal production out of C.J. Anderson lately as well. Whether Gurley is fully healed and rested in this one or not, Anderson has proven to be more than capable of carrying the load. The Pats have struggled against running backs at times this year, allowing 4.9 yards a tote, but they’ve given up just 60 rushing yards in total this postseason and a total of just 176 combined in the last two games of the regular season. However, Gurley can hurt them as a receiver out of the backfield, which is perhaps the Pats’ biggest area of weakness on the defensive side of the ball. In fact, Chiefs running back Damien Williams posted a solid five-catch, 66-yard, two-TD performance against the team less than two weeks ago. Dont’a Hightower, Elandon Roberts, and Kyle Van Noy are going to need to step their game up big time in this one.

Van Noy has been one of the team’s best pass-rushers and all-around defensive contributors this season, but he leaves a lot to be desired in terms of pass-coverage. A LOT.

(Watch out for “Greg the Leg”): The Rams have one the league’s top kickers in Greg Zuerlein. He missed a couple games with an injury this year but has otherwise been money for the past three seasons, nailing 90 percent of his attempts over that time (including 95 percent of them last season). Not only is he accurate, but he’s got an incredibly powerful leg that pretty much puts the Rams in scoring position any time they’re on the opponent’s side of the field (10-for-13 on 50-plus-yarders the past two seasons). If the game’s close at the end and the Rams have the ball, this dude could end up being the dagger that takes down the throne.

This guy can seriously kick the ball to outer space.

Prediction

While both teams are pretty close in terms of talent level, I feel like experience will end up being the key to victory here. Again, I know the Eagles had a first-year head coach and a backup quarterback win them a title last season, but the Pats defense was also really, reaallllyyy bad in that game. This year, they’re much more refined on that side of the ball, and the Rams aren’t playing at full strength. Above all, I just can’t see Jared Goff beating the G.O.A.T. coming off a Super Bowl loss. I just can’t. Edelman, White, and an adrenaline-filled Gronk will lead the way on offense, and the Pats end up winning with a bit more ease than expected, 34-27.

AND DON’T FORGET: Be sure to tune in on Facebook Live this Sunday from 1-3 p.m. – or come hang with us at Oak Square Liquors in Brighton – as The 300s crew brings you our first-ever LIVE podcast, giving you even more predictions, insight, and crazy shenanigans until just hours before kickoff!

The 300s

Discussions from the cheap seats